Last week’s picks were more bad to mediocre than good, but I go back to the Intended Air Yards and target share well to hopefully unearth another blowup performance in Week 9 after suggesting using Mike Evans for last week’s explosive performance. A rookie runner whose stock might be on the rise is also included as a one-off suggestion. The picks are rounded out by what should be a popular game stack with big upside, but not necessarily all parties in the stack will be chalky.
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Curtis Samuel (WR – CAR): $4,300 vs. Titans
Samuel’s not in the same class of receiver as Evans, but his Intended Air Yards and target share numbers stand out entering this week much in the same way Evans’ did last week. Samuel’s 807 Intended Air Yards are the sixth most and his 22.7% target share is the 33rd highest mark among receivers and tight ends targeted at least 10 times, according to Sports Info Solutions.
The Panthers were thoroughly dismantled by San Francisco’s elite defense. This is a great bounce-back spot for Carolina’s offense that could fly under the radar. Football Outsiders (FO) ranks the Titans 12th in overall Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), but they’re much stronger against the run, ranking second in rush defense DVOA, than against the pass, ranking 20th in pass defense DVOA.
One stat that caught my attention when digging into Samuel’s potential for a monster game is Tennessee’s pressure rate. The 49ers lead the NFL with a 32.6% pressure percentage, but the Titans have the seventh-lowest pressure percentage at 19.6%, according to Pro-Football-Reference. Kyle Allen should find the sledding much easier this week, and that helps all of his offensive weapons. Samuel dinged up his shoulder against the 49ers and didn’t practice Wednesday, so his health will need to be monitored. Assuming he goes this week, though, I’ll be overweight in exposure to him.
Devin Singletary (RB – BUF): $4,700 vs. Redskins
Earlier in the week, I wrote up Singletary when looking back at Week 8’s backfield usage around the league. He played a significantly higher percentage of snaps than Frank Gore, and despite the 18-point margin of victory for the Eagles, the Bills were within one score until the 5:43 mark in the third quarter when Philadelphia extended their lead to 24 to 13. Thus, Singletary’s snap count wasn’t a product of the Bills being in a negative game script all game. Since that game, both head coach Sean McDermott and offensive coordinator Brian Daboll have praised the rookie back and discussed a desire to get the ball in his hands more, as you can read in Nick Wojton’s piece.
Singletary’s a more well-rounded back than the ageless Gore, adding an element of receiving skills to Buffalo’s backfield the veteran back simply doesn’t bring to the table. Having said that, Singletary’s no slouch as a runner, either. He’s averaging a blistering 8.6 yards per carry — admittedly on a small sample of 20 carries. His long run of the year is 23 yards, so he doesn’t have one extremely long run skewing that mark. Singletary’s limited work this year as a rusher disqualifies him from qualifying for FO’s top rushing table featuring 37 backs with a minimum of 64 carries, but his 72 Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR) is the second-highest mark out of backs with 12 to 63 carries. More impressively, his 87.8% DVOA blows the doors off of the competition, with Justin Jackson’s 42.1% DVOA ranking second among backs in that tier of carries and Dalvin Cook’s 29.3% DVOA sitting atop the 37 backs with a minimum of 64 carries.
The Bills are 9.5-point favorites at home against the visiting Redskins, per DraftKings Sportsbook. They should have a favorable game script, and, although Gore threatens to soak up some of — or perhaps most of — the carries salting the game away if things go according to script, there’s a chance Singletary will get the bulk of that work. Furthermore, Singletary’s receiving prowess gets a lift in this matchup. Washington is tied for the second-most receptions allowed to backs (52) and coughed up the seventh-most receiving yards (397) to them this season, per Pro-Football-Reference. Being ahead of a breakout game from a player can be the difference between a solid cash and winning a GPP, and Singletary has the potential to shoot a GPP roster to the top of the mountain if he’s fully unleashed.
Josh Jacobs (RB – OAK): $6,500 vs. Lions
Matthew Stafford (QB – DET): $6,800 at Raiders
T.J. Hockenson (TE – DET): $3,700 at Raiders
Marvin Jones Jr. (WR – DET): $7,000 at Raiders
Last week, Jacobs was held out of practice until logging a limited participation on Friday. This week, he opened practices Wednesday with a limited participation, according to the team’s official website. That seems to suggest his shoulder is in better shape this week than at the same time last week, and hopefully, that means an uptick in work in a plus matchup. Still, his 17 touches for 81 yards from scrimmage last week weren’t awful.
Circling back to the matchup, FO ranks the Lions 19th in rush defense DVOA. From a fantasy perspective, it’s an even more mouthwatering matchup for Jacobs. The Lions have coughed up the second-most DraftKings points per game to the position, according to Pro-Football-Reference.
The betting info and projected game script project to be quite favorable for Jacobs, too. The Raiders are two-point favorites at home with a hearty implied total of 27.0 points. The layout is perfect for Jacobs getting back to 20-plus touches after having back-to-back games of hitting that threshold snapped with 17 touches last week.
With 20-plus touches, Jacobs has massive upside. He’s been a stud as a rookie, ranking eighth in DYAR (86) and 15th in DVOA out of 37 backs who’ve rushed a minimum of 64 times. Pro-Football-Reference’s advanced rushing stats credit Jacobs with the second-highest yards after contact per attempt (YAC/att) mark at 3.0 YAC/att. He’s tied for eighth with 12 broken tackles, and his 10.3 attempts per broken tackle are tied for the 14th-best mark.
The visiting Lions have a solid implied total of 25 points in what projects to be a shootout. The running game was bad for the Lions last week and Stafford’s playing at a high level. He should be leaned on heavily in a dreamy matchup this week.
FO ranks the Raiders 29th in pass defense DVOA. In year two without Khalil Mack, they continue to be inept in getting after the quarterback. Their 14.3% pressure percentage this season is not only the worst mark in the NFL, it’s a whopping three percent worse than the next-lowest mark. Predictably, their real-life struggles have translated to big scoring totals for opposing quarterbacks. The Raiders have ceded the second-most DraftKings points per game to quarterbacks. Stafford’s erupted for more than 340 passing yards in back-to-back games and thrown seven touchdowns compared to two interceptions, and there’s no reason to think he’ll slow down this week. Pony up for him and enjoy the massive scoring output.
Kenny Golladay is a decent bet to be his top stack partner from an ownership perspective, and that’s certainly understandable. I’ll be rolling that stack out on some rosters. Using the combo of Jones and Hockenson is a nifty swerve, though. Jones has an edge in one category on his running mate at receiver.
Golladay’s nine red-zone targets are tied for the 13th most among receivers this year, per Lineups, but Jones’ 10 red-zone targets are tied for the sixth most at the position. Golladay has hauled in five of his nine red-zone targets and scored four touchdowns on them, and Jones has reeled in eight of his 10 with five touchdowns.
Hockenson has been a major disappointment save for his eruption in Week 1. Perhaps his 3-27-1 line in Week 4 wasn’t disappointing, but his next-highest yardage output since pantsing the Cardinals for a 6-131-1 line in the opener is only 32 yards. He’s been held to one catch in three of seven games. There’s an extremely-low floor for Hockenson, but the matchup is good and Hockenson’s red-zone usage bodes well for some getting back in the end zone a few more times this season. The rookie’s seven red-zone targets are tied for the seventh most among tight ends this year.
Usage in the red zone is especially noteworthy against the Raiders because of Oakland’s ineptitude in scoring territory. The Raiders rank tied for 27th in touchdown percentage allowed in the red zone this year, per Lineups. Their six receiving touchdowns allowed to tight ends this year is the second-most surrendered to the position, according to Pro-Football-Reference. I’m buying Hockenson reaching the end zone at least once this week. The Raiders are also tied for the seventh-most receiving touchdowns (10) allowed to receivers, so it’s not as if they’ve been good defending them in the red zone, either. Both Jones and Golladay — who I touched on above — have a decent shot at reaching the end zone.
Jones is less touchdown-dependent for delivering daily gamers the goods this week, making him my preferred stack option between him and Hockenson for gamers looking to only use one of the touted options with Stafford. Expanding on that, Jones’ 619 Intended Air Yards this year are the 27th-most. In other words, he’s not merely a red-zone threat. He’s being targeted all over the field. Jones’ ceiling is massive this week.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
