DraftKings NFL Lineup Advice: Week 11 (Full Slate)
Last week was one of the most bizarre weeks of the season and it made for a crappy DFS week for me. Players like Marlon Mack and David Montgomery disappointed in superb matchups and I’m still scratching my head on why. That’s why I’m working extra hard this week and I feel like I have some great plays for you. With that in mind, let’s get into our favorite Week 11 plays.
First off, let’s take a look at the primetime slates. Thursday offers us a battle between the Browns and Steelers. I happen to like both running backs in this game since these are two of the most volatile passing attacks in the NFL.
The Sunday night game features the Rams playing host to the Bears. With that terrible offensive line in Los Angeles, look for Khalil Mack to feast. For fantasy purposes, Todd Gurley intrigues me with Sean McVay talking about how he made a mistake pulling him in the fourth quarter in Week 10. The Monday night fixture matches up the Chiefs with the Chargers in Mexico City. Feel free to fire up all of your Chiefs and Melvin Gordon.
Quarterback of the Week
Drew Brees (NO): $6,900 at TB
Brees is coming off a terrible game in Week 10 and that may keep his ownership lower than it should be. We’re going to go right back to the well since Brees should go off in a matchup like this. Tampa Bay is surrendering the most fantasy points in the league to opposing quarterbacks this season. That’s big news for a guy who scored at least 25 DK points in his two healthy games this season before that Week 10 dud. He absolutely killed them last year too, averaging 320 passing yards and two touchdowns in both games against Tampa.
Cash Game Running Back
Josh Jacobs (OAK): $6,900 vs. CIN
This is the first time Jacobs has found himself in one of my articles and that’s a mistake on my part. This rookie has been an absolute stud and it’s very possible that he’ll land Rookie of the Year honors. Let’s take a look at those numbers, with Jacobs averaging 17.7 DK points per game. That happens to be the sixth-highest total among running backs on this slate, surrounding himself around Alvin Kamara, Leonard Fournette, and Mark Ingram.
What really adds to Jacobs’ intrigue this week is the matchup against the Bengals, with Cincy allowing 173 rushing yards per game. That’s not only the worst mark in the NFL, it’s also the highest total by 25 yards. Not to mention, Jacobs and the Raiders enter this matchup as a 10.5-point favorite, guaranteeing Jacobs major run.
GPP Running Back
Brian Hill (ATL): $4,800 at CAR
This could be chalky, but Hill is going to be tough to avoid with Devonta Freeman missing this game. After Freeman departed with a leg injury in Week 10, Hill got 20 carries for 61 yards and a touchdown. The fact that no one else on the roster got more than a single carry indicates that he’s the go-to guy and Dan Quinn said as much on Monday. Getting to face Carolina as a bell-cow back is simply a bonus, with the Panthers allowing the fourth-most rushing yards in the NFL while posting a 29th OPRK against that position. Don’t fade Hill at this price if Freeman is out!
Cash Game Wide Receiver
Michael Thomas (NO): $9,900 at TB
If we like Brees as our top quarterback, we obviously have to use Thomas. This is far from a groundbreaking recommendation, but it’s simply hard to fade this guy in cash games. That’s noticeable when you see that he’s scored at least 16.4 DK points in every game this season while leading all receivers with 25.2 fantasy points per game, Ironically, that 16.4-point floor is the average of the WR11 on DraftKings, showing just how good he can be in his worst game. The icing on the cake here is this cupcake matchup though, with the Buccaneers owning a 31st OPRK against opposing wide receivers this season.
GPP Wide Receiver
Tyler Boyd (CIN): $5,200 at OAK
It is so crazy that Boyd continues to get disrespected by these DFS sites this badly. He consistently outperforms everyone in his price range and his price doesn’t even take into consideration how many targets he’s receiving. Boyd actually ranks seventh in the NFL in total targets, above guys like Chris Godwin, Julio Jones, Kenny Golladay, and Odell Beckham. It’s not just a monster target share either, with Boyd averaging nearly 15 DK points per game.
That role and production make him very attractive against a Raiders secondary that allows the most fantasy points in the league to opposing wide receivers. The aforementioned 10.5-point spread only adds to Boyd’s value, as that should guarantee him another eight to 12 targets with the Bengals playing catchup.
Tight End of the Week
Jared Cook (NO): $4,400 at TB
Cook was a highly touted player in the offseason, but injuries to Cook and Brees derailed any hope for a top-10 season. That doesn’t really matter anymore though because we’re playing DFS. In the first game back with both guys healthy, Cook collected six catches for 74 yards on 10 targets in Week 10. That’s all you can ask for and it’s clear that he’s one of the focal points of this passing game right now with no other legit wide receivers on this roster outside of Thomas. We certainly like the matchup against Tampa Bay too, with the Buccaneers allowing the second-most fantasy points in the NFL. If you’re willing to pay up, George Kittle gets to face an Arizona defense who continues to get killed by tight ends.
D/ST of the Week
Minnesota Vikings: $3,400 vs. DEN
Take a look at this spread and total. The Vikings enter this matchup as a 10.5-point favorite in a game with a total of 39.5. That total is extremely low and that spread is very high, which tells you everything you need to know. That has the Broncos projected for about 14 points in this game, which is easily the lowest total on this slate. That’s really no surprise when you see that they’re starting some guy named Brandon Allen at quarterback, and he’s in for a long night against the fifth-best defense in the NFL. Minnesota’s ability to run the ball should keep Denver’s point total low too, and that only adds to the uphill battle that the Broncos will surely be facing.