DraftKings NFL Lineup Advice: Week 12 (Full Slate)
Last week’s article was pretty solid, but we did miss on our GPP plays. That’s why they fell under the GPP consideration section though because those types of players can be extremely volatile. I think everyone in the DFS community was let down by Brian Hill though and we’ll look to be smarter here. With that said, let’s kick things off by talking about the primetime games.
Thursday night’s game features an AFC South showdown between the Texans and Colts. That will actually decide first place in the division and it should lead to a great game. In terms of fantasy, Jonathan Williams and Nyheim Hines are nice cheap options filling in for Marlon Mack while DeAndre Hopkins should carry the Texans’ offense.
The Sunday night game is a matchup between the Packers and 49ers. It’s tough to trust any Green Bay players against that stout defense, but Tevin Coleman could have success against the Packers’ terrible run defense.
The Monday night matchup is the Ravens and Rams. The only fantasy recommendation I have is to not fade Lamar Jackson.
Quarterback of the Week
Matt Ryan (ATL): $6,700 vs. TB
Many people may not realize it, but Ryan is a top-five quarterback in terms of fantasy points per game. One of the biggest reasons for that is his usage, with Ryan ranked fourth in pass attempts and fifth in passing yards per game. That sort of usage is no surprise when you see this running game, with Devonta Freeman sidelined and the other backs doing nothing.
That’s why he should continue to throw a ton and why we love him in this matchup. Not only does Tampa allow the second-most passing yards in the NFL, but they also allow the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. This 53-point total only adds to his intrigue, as he and Jameis Winston should be throwing at will.
Cash Game Running Back
Nick Chubb (CLE): $8,100 vs. MIA
Many people were worried about Chubb’s workload when Kareem Hunt returned, but he’s actually been getting more carries since then. One of the major reasons why is because they’re winning ball games and we expect that to be the case here. In fact, Cleveland enters this matchup as a 10.5-point favorite, making Chubb a great bet to receive 20 carries. That’s big news for a guy with 201 carries for 1,011 rushing yards and six touchdowns this season. Numbers like those have to be horrifying for the Dolphins, with Miami owning a 30th OPRK against opposing running backs this season.
GPP Running Back
Derrius Guice (WAS): $4,700 vs. DET
Guice made his return from injury in Week 11, totaling 69 yards on eight total touches. That’s the stud that we’ve been waiting for and he should definitely receive plenty of work ahead of a 34-year-old Adrian Peterson for the remainder of the season. The reason for that is because they spent a second-round draft pick on this guy and they need to see what he can do. The best part of this play might be the matchup though, with Detroit allowing the most fantasy points in the league to opposing running backs.
Also consider Ronald Jones II against a putrid Falcons defense. You could stack Jones with Ryan and our next recommendation, banking on RJII going off and forcing Atlanta to throw the ball a ton.
Cash Game Wide Receiver
Julio Jones (ATL): $8,000 vs. TB
You probably could have seen this coming with the Ryan recommendation. Jones is Ryan’s number one target and that makes him really tough to avoid if we’re going to ride with Matty Ice. We’re talking about a guy with 59 catches for 882 yards this season, which both rank top 10 in the NFL. That’s the stud we’ve seen throughout his phenomenal career and I’d argue that he’s the most talented receiver in our game.
The thing that makes him attractive this week is the matchup though, with the Buccaneers surrendering the most fantasy points in the league to opposing wide receivers. In his last four games against Tampa, Jones has 34 catches for 589 yards and three touchdowns if you needed any more incentive.
GPP Wide Receiver
DeVante Parker (MIA): $5,200 vs. CLE
We need to start giving this guy the credit he deserves. While Parker is a hated name in fantasy circles, he’s quietly been really productive since Ryan Fitzpatrick took over the quarterback duties. In fact, Parker has at least 11.6 DK points in seven-straight games, averaging over 14 DraftKings points per game in that span. That’s really all you can ask for from such a cheap receiver and he should continue to see big targets with Preston Williams injured and Miami entering this game as a big underdog.
Tight End of the Week
Zach Ertz (PHI): $6,000 vs. SEA
Ertz has returned to his Pro Bowl form the last two games and his price is still too low for someone of his ability. While he did struggle in Weeks 7 and 8, Ertz actually has at least seven targets in all of the other nine games while attaining nine receptions in back-to-back games. It’s hard for a tight end to get nine targets, let alone nine catches. That stellar form pairs beautifully with this matchup, as the Seahawks own a 27th OPRK against opposing tight ends this season.
D/ST of the Week
Buffalo Bills (BUF): $3,400 vs. DEN
There are five D/STs priced above the Bills and that’s truly hard to understand. Not only do they rank third in both points allowed and yardage surrendered, but they also get to face a Broncos offense run by Brandon Allen. That’s why Denver ranks 27th in total offense and that’s a horrific sign against a stingy defense like this. The odds completely agree, with Vegas projecting Denver for just 16 points in what’s expected to be the lowest-scoring game of the week.