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FanDuel Market Watch: Week 10 (2019)

Nov 5, 2019

Daniel Jones’ low floor makes him hard to trust even in a good matchup this week.

Here are the players that have seen the largest value fluctuation from last week to this week’s FanDuel main slate. Depending on the situation, we may be able to exploit this information and take advantage of the fact that the player’s salary increased or decreased significantly from last week.

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Quarterbacks

Brian Hoyer (IND): $7,100 vs. MIA (+$1,100)
Only four teams give up more fantasy points to the quarterback position than the Dolphins 22.1 FPPG. The Dolphins have also given up multiple passing touchdowns in seven of their eight games this year. This bodes well for Brian Hoyer getting the start for the injured Jacoby Brissett. In relief of Brissett last week, he had three touchdowns and finished with 16.3 FDFP. When he was last a starter in 2017 for the 49ers, he threw for 300+ yards in two of his six starts. He is a very good option this week if you are looking for salary savings at the quarterback position.

Daniel Jones (NYG): $7,400 @ NYJ (-$300)
He had 28.2 FDFP two weeks ago against Detroit when he threw four touchdown passes. He also had 34.2 FDFP against Tampa Bay in his debut. Other than those two games, he has not accounted for multiple touchdowns in any of his other five games. Even though he has a nice matchup against the Jets, who come into this game having given up three passing touchdowns to Ryan Fitzpatrick and Gardner Minshew, I don’t trust Jones’ floor or ceiling. I will find $100 more and pay up for Matt Ryan or Josh Allen this week if I am going to play around in this price range.

Running Backs

Jaylen Samuels (PIT): $6,200 vs. LAR (+$1,200)
He was an autoplay last week at his near minimum price tag and the role that he was expected to play. His price has skyrocketed this week. He is still a huge value based on his role (provided James Conner sits again). Catching 13 passes but only gaining 13 yards on eight carries doesn’t make him as attractive on FD with the half-PPR scoring as he only scored 12.8 FDFP. The Rams have a stout defense against running backs, even pass-catching backs. With that being said, if Conner is out, Samuels makes an interesting value play even with the price increase. There are few running backs in his price range that have clear paths to double-digit fantasy days.

Frank Gore (BUF): $5,600 @ CLE (-$600)
Coaches love Frank Gore. More young running backs should follow his lead and maybe they’d play forever and have a chance at the Hall of Fame. However, Father Time might finally be catching up to him. Devin Singletary outplayed him last week but more importantly, Singletary has seen twice as many snaps the last two weeks as Gore has. After Singletary’s 21.5 FDFP performance on Sunday, he now has reached double-figure fantasy production in four of the five games he has played in. Frank Gore is not a viable play even at this discounted price, but Singletary makes for an interesting value play at $6,700 this week.

Wide Receivers

Zach Pascal (IND): $6,400 vs. MIA (+$1,100)
He played in all but four of the Colts 71 offensive snaps Sunday against the Steelers. This was his second game in the last three that he saw at least six targets. He had 16.1 FDFP this past week and 25.6 FDFP three weeks ago, but he also had a 1.1 dud in between those. Without T.Y. Hilton, Pascal is the number one wide receiver for the Colts and he gets a great matchup this week against the Dolphins. However, he is no longer a value and I’d rather play six or seven proven wide receivers in this same price range.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (GB): $5,500 vs. CAR (-$800)
Sure, he had a 20.3 FDFP performance three weeks ago but that was on only three targets. He is a boom or bust player that has seen a total of nine targets in the last four weeks. He has scored single-digit fantasy points in seven of his nine games this year. He might have a high ceiling but you better guess right. I am not spending my money on that kind of a guessing game.

Tight Ends

Mike Gesicki (MIA): $5,300 @ IND (+$500)
He caught all six of his targets Sunday against the Jets for 95 yards and 12.5 FDFP. This was, by far, his best game of the season. The 2018 second-round draft pick out of Penn State has talent, but he has under-performed on this bad team. There is the chance that his opportunities pick up with Preston Williams out for the season. The Colts are giving up the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends this season (12.4). Even though he is still cheap, there are still better options that are actually cheaper.

Evan Engram (NYG): $6,400 @ NYJ (-$400)
He still has the upside and talent to break a slate, but he hasn’t shown it since getting hurt earlier this year. His price is still too high based upon his recent production, but you are paying for his potential. On paper, the matchup against the Jets isn’t appealing as they’ve yet to give up a 100-yard game to the position, though Gesicki came close last week with 95 yards. Zach Ertz is the only tight end to score a touchdown this year against the Jets. But then again, he is the only “real” tight end they’ve faced. Engram is still locked into 7-8 targets so if you don’t like any of the other options at the position, he might be worth a chance since some of the other tight ends aren’t exactly consistent either.

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Jamy Bechler is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and a leadership consultant, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommended in this article.

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