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FanDuel Market Watch: Week 11 (2019)

Nov 12, 2019

Does a reduced price make Latavius Murray an attractive option against Tampa Bay?

Here are the players that have seen the largest value fluctuation from last week to this week’s FanDuel main slate. Depending on the situation, we may be able to exploit this information and take advantage of the fact that the player’s salary increased or decreased significantly from last week.

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Quarterbacks

Jeff Driskel (DET): $6,700 vs. DAL (+$700)
Matthew Stafford is expected to be back Sunday against the Cowboys. Even if there is a hiccup and he’s not able to play, there is no need to punt the quarterback position. Though he had a respectable stat line last week, he still only had 18.6 FDFP. He didn’t do anything last year as a backup in Cincinnati to give us hope that he can put up a fantasy-worthy outing. There was no need to price him up this week.

Brian Hoyer (IND): $6,500 vs. JAC (-$600)
Similar to Jeff Driskel, we are expecting Jacoby Brissett to be back this week for the Colts, but that is still uncertain. The Colts have said that they will know on Wednesday. If he is not back, then Hoyer will get another start. He played poorly last week, despite the good matchup. Even at this cheap price tag, you wouldn’t want to waste your quarterback spot on Hoyer in a more challenging matchup than he had last week when he threw three interceptions and failed to reach double-figure fantasy points.

Running Backs

Brian Hill (ATL): $5,900 @ CAR (+$900)
With Devonta Freeman getting hurt, it looks like Hill is going to take over the full-time running back duties for the Falcons. We always like the flashy new toy, but remember that if you wouldn’t play Freeman at this price tag then you probably want to reconsider playing Hill at this price either. Despite the weird upset of the Saints, the Falcons’ offense has still struggled this year. Hill was a third-string running back to start the year, so you’ll want to temper your excitement about a guy who only managed 60 yards on 20 carries last week.

Latavius Murray (NO): $5,600 @ TB (-$1,400)
Last week’s game against the Falcons was one of the weirder games we’ve seen. The Saints didn’t look like themselves at all. After gaining 100+ yards each of the previous two weeks, Murray did nothing against a poor Falcons defense, gaining only 12 yards on five carries. Alvin Kamara was back, but it looks like they’ll be splitting carries moving forward. At this reduced price tag, he’d be much more attractive if they weren’t facing the Bucs this week. Only the Patriots are giving up fewer fantasy points to the running back position than Tampa Bay.

Wide Receivers

Russell Gage (ATL): $5,300 @ CAR (+$600)
FanDuel was a little too aggressive with Gage this week. His price tag was where he should be until he shows that he actually can produce. Even though he has seen 14 total targets in the last two weeks, he has only managed to gain 81 yards in those two games. I played him last week since he was low priced and was stepping into Mohamed Sanu‘s role. His price is too high in this Falcons offense for him to be a viable option this week.

Robby Anderson (NYJ): $5,400 @ WAS (-$500)
He’s a boom-or-bust player that has been more bust than boom this year. He is always capable of getting behind a defense. Against this below-average Redskins secondary, I could see him having a 100-yard or multiple touchdown day. However, the most likely scenario is that he puts up his eighth single-digit fantasy performance of the year. He could break the slate, but the odds say that won’t happen. If I want value (with a similar ceiling), I’ll take my chances with Marquise Brown, Calvin Ridley, or Kenny Stills, who are all in the same price range.

Tight Ends

Ross Dwelley (SF): $4,900 vs. ARI (+$900)
Once again, FanDuel significantly raised the price of someone when there really wasn’t a need. Dwelley saw seven targets Monday night and they are playing the Cardinals this week, who are terrible against the tight end position. Regardless, that isn’t reason enough to raise his price this much. He’s only had 6.9 and 5.4 FDFP in the last two weeks, respectively. Remember that just because the Cardinals are bad against good tight ends, doesn’t mean that bad tight ends are worth playing against them (like Tyler Eifert).

Cameron Brate (TB): $4,500 vs. NO (-$600)
O.J. Howard is coming off a strong game, but the Bucs don’t utilize their tight end much and the Saints are stout against the position. For those three reasons, Brate is not a legitimate option this week even at his low price.

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Jamy Bechler is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and a leadership consultant, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommended in this article.

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