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FanDuel Market Watch: Week 12 (2019)

Nov 19, 2019

A price drop has resulted in Curtis Samuel looking like one of FanDuel’s better WR value plays

Here are the players that have seen the largest value fluctuation from last week to this week’s FanDuel main slate. Depending on the situation, we may be able to exploit this information and take advantage of the fact that the player’s salary increased or decreased significantly from last week.

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Nick Foles (PHI): $7,600 @ TEN (+$600)
He looked solid in his first action since Week 1 and earned 17.8 FDFP. FanDuel was probably a little aggressive in pricing him up so much this week, though. The Titans are a mid-tier defense against the quarterback position, giving up 17.6 FDFP on average to signal-callers. FanDuel’s pricing at this position has been very condensed this year. Even though Foles isn’t a bad option, his price is too similar to other quarterbacks with higher ceilings (e.g. Jameis Winston, Matt Ryan, Josh Allen).

Kyle Allen (CAR): $6,600 @ NO (-$600)
The Saints are not an easy matchup for a quarterback that has thrown nine interceptions and only three touchdowns in the last three games. Only Deshaun Watson in Week 1 had thrown three touchdowns against them this year. Allen has only topped 20+ fantasy points once all year and that was in his very first action of the season back in Week 3. He’s incredibly cheap, but it appears you may get what you pay for. Single-digit fantasy efforts like last week’s performance can sink an entire lineup.

Running Backs

Jaylen Samuels (PIT): $6,900 @ CIN (+$1,000)
This is a good matchup against a bad Bengals defense. In fact, Samuels had his best game of the year against them in Week 4, accounting for 19.5 FDFP. He’s always a better play on full-PPR sites because of his pass-catching abilities and his massive pass game role with the Steelers. However, he’s still a viable option on FanDuel with James Conner’s injury and the wide receivers being banged up. He’s only averaging a measly 2.6 yards per carry, but has seen nearly eight targets per game the last five weeks.

Ty Johnson (DET): $4,800 @ WAS (-$600)
I haven’t trusted the Lions’ backfield situation all year and that continues this week. They signed Bo Scarbrough last week and he immediately became their top running back Sunday against the Cowboys. Johnson might have been eased back into the lineup because he was coming out of concussion protocol, but remember the most carries he saw prior to that was 10 and the most targets he’s seen is four. He is not a viable fantasy option this week.

Wide Receivers

Calvin Ridley (ATL): $6,700 vs. TB (+$1,200)
Ridley has been drastically underpriced all season for his floor and ceiling. It was only a matter of time before he went off and smashed. Last Sunday against Carolina, he put up an 8-143-1 stat line. Tampa Bay has allowed 16 different receivers to gain at least 70 yards (eight had 100+ games) this season.

If his price hadn’t risen, he probably would have been the highest owned player on the slate. He’s not a bad play this week, but at this big of a price jump, it might be hard to justify paying for him over guys like D.K. Metcalf against Philadelphia, John Brown, Golden Tate, D.J. Moore, or Tyrell Williams against the Jets. He’s been a plug-and-play most weeks for me, but I’ll actually have a decision to make this week.

Curtis Samuel (CAR): $5,700 @ NO (-$600)
This is a loaded price range for wide receiver value and now that Samuel has dropped below $6K, he becomes an interesting option. As Mike Tagliere pointed out, Samuel is 21st among wide receivers with 75 targets and is sixth in wide receiver air yards. His production has just lagged behind his opportunity.

Sunday’s 4.5 FDFP performance was his fifth single-digit output of the year. Teammate D.J. Moore has been the better option on FD most of the year, but he is no longer underpriced. Samuel is a good value at a discount, but it really comes down to which of these value wide receivers you personally prefer as you have a number of strong options (Terry McLaurin, Mohamed Sanu, and Tyler Boyd).

Tight Ends

Cameron Brate (TB): $5,400 @ ATL (+$900)
Brate saw 14 targets last week (12.3 FDFP) after seeing a total of 21 prior to that. Atlanta provides a nice matchup for tight ends, but their defense has been looking much different in their last two games. If you typically look for tight end value (or even punt the position), then Brate is a strong option this week. If that is not your style, then Brate is not the guy to start experimenting with. FD has condensed pricing at the tight end position so even the value plays aren’t as strong because the savings are minimal, especially for a guy averaging 4.7 FDFP.

Darren Waller (OAK): $6,200 @ NYJ (-$500)
We know he is going to get a fair share of targets and he has 20-point upside. We also get him at a reduced price this week. On paper, the matchup isn’t good since the Jets only allow an average of 7.7 FDFP to tight ends and have given up a total of two touchdowns this year to the position.

On the flipside, they also have faced only one “real” tight end all year when Zach Ertz scored a touchdown back in Week 4. Waller averages 11.3 FDFP, which is fourth among all tight ends. I don’t mind Waller, but I will probably drop down $100 and get Ertz in a decent matchup coming off back-to-back games with 11 targets.

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Jamy Bechler is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and a leadership consultant, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommended in this article.

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