Here are the players that have seen the largest value fluctuation from last week to this week’s FanDuel main slate. Depending on the situation, we may be able to exploit this information and take advantage of the fact that the player’s salary increased or decreased significantly from last week.
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Quarterbacks
Devlin Hodges (PIT): $6,800 vs. CLE (+$800)
He’s completed 27 of his 40 passed for 318 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception in his three games this season. That is a good stat line for one game, but over the course of three games, that just tells me that I don’t know what I’m getting. Just because he is better than the alternative doesn’t mean that he is good. Sometimes a penny stock is not a bargain and it’s just, in fact, worth a penny. Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes are both on this slate, do you really want to dig yourself into that big of a hole trying to save salary? Unless you’re related to Devlin “Duck” Hodges, save your salary at a different position.
Lamar Jackson (BAL): $8,700 vs. SF (-$800)
When was the last time that you saw a healthy player lead his position in fantasy scoring and then see the biggest salary decrease the next week? If you fall into the “matchups matter” crowd, then you’ll fade him this week despite averaging nearly 30 FDFP. If you fall into the “defense doesn’t matter” crowd, then you’ll play him citing his 28.6 FDFP against the Patriots a few weeks ago when they were a top-five pass defense. I’ve been playing Christian McCaffrey blindly for weeks while kicking myself for getting too cute at quarterback. Jackson’s floor is higher than some other guys’ ceilings. I am going to work on not being cute this week and not overthinking this one. This is like a Black Friday or Cyber Monday sale. I’ll take the Lamar Jackson discount and enjoy that 25-point floor.
Running Backs
Benny Snell (PIT): $6,100 vs. CLE (+$1,600)
The rookie was a good running back at Kentucky, but this is a whole new ball game. Plus, there are more questions than answers with this Steelers offense. Snell played well when given the chance last week, gaining 98 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries. Despite all of that, he still only had 10.8 FDFP. I’d rather go with Phillip Lindsay, Tevin Coleman, or even Ronald Jones, who are all priced similarly. The Browns have given up only one rushing touchdown in the last five games. There have also been zero 100+ yard rushers in that span. This is probably not the spot for Snell.
Jaylen Samuels (PIT): $5,500 vs. CLE (-$1,400)
He has become a non-factor from a fantasy perspective. There is always the chance that he could see a lot of targets or break a long run, but that is not very likely. Your best course of action is to forget what his price used to be and just tell yourself that he was overpriced. He’s not worth it, even at this discount.
Wide Receivers
Greg Ward (PHI): $5,300 @ MIA (+$800)
He caught six of his seven targets last week and gets Miami this week, but those were the only six passes he has caught all season. The likeliest outcome is that he doesn’t break the slate this week. There are a number of more-proven options or guys with higher ceilings in the 5K range, so I will be passing on Ward this week.
Sterling Shepard (NYG): $5,900 vs. GB (-$600)
The production wasn’t there last week in his first action since missing five games with an injury. However, he was still targeted nine times, giving him 44 targets in five games this season. The Packers have given up 100+ yard games to six different receivers this year. Since he looks healthy, he’s a decent option, but there are a lot of high-5K and low-6K options that he will be competing with for my attention, such as Tyler Boyd, Terry McLaurin, Chris Conley, Tyrell Williams, and Sammy Watkins (to name a few).
Tight Ends
Zach Ertz (PHI): $6,900 @ MIA (+$800)
FanDuel normally has condensed pricing at this position, so Ertz’s price as the third-most-expensive tight end is not crazy. He has seen double-digit targets in each of the last three games. He has gone for 20+ FDFP in two of those three games. The Dolphins don’t look bad on paper against the position, but that’s because they are bad everywhere. Besides, they’ve only faced one “real” tight end all year and Mark Andrews went for an 8-108-1 stat line on them. Even though his price was raised, he’ll still be a core play for me.
Mark Andrews (BAL): $6,500 vs. SF (-$400)
As I mentioned above, FanDuel has condensed tight end pricing. I will find the $400 to pay up for Ertz, especially since Andrews has been touchdown-dependent recently. He has only seen 18 targets total in the last four games. Combine this with the fact that he has a tough matchup and I will be passing on Andrews, even though he is talented and is a main cog in a high-powered offense.
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Jamy Bechler is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can follow him on his DFS Twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and a leadership consultant, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommended in this article.
