Wednesday brings us a huge eleven-game slate, which is always challenging to parse through. I think it is increasingly important on large slates to limit our focus to great matchups and elevated role situations. The DFS sites use complex algorithms to price players accurately to their expected output, so when all factors are neutral (matchup, injuries, etc.), there really is not much of an edge to playing anybody – the game is more or less random. The edge really comes when we get information that was not factored into the pricing of the player. Most of that comes from the algorithm not being aggressive enough on pricing up for a really exploitable matchup, or the algorithm not being aware of who is actually active for that team. This is important for every slate, of course, but when there are this many games, you are going to have these situations arise and if you do not focus in and take advantage, you are going to be behind the field.
Check out today’s NBA Shot from FanDuel
Best Team Situations
Spurs (@ Wizards)
The Wizards have reached the top of the “exploitable matchups” chart. They have added 15 fantasy points onto their opponent’s totals on average. They allow three more possessions, ten more points, three more assists, and an extra rebound. They have allowed more than 230 fantasy points in six of their eleven games, and have had only three games where they allowed a significantly below average total (against the Thunder, Pistons, and Mavericks). These two teams met on October 26th, and the Spurs put up 260 team fantasy points in that game.
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