FanDuel NFL Cash Game Lineup Advice: Week 11 (2019)
It’s good to be back in the saddle with Week 11. After driving 2,350.5 miles (who’s counting?) across country last week to relocate for work, I can finally settle down again this week and work on some DFS cash lineups. Last week was refreshing though to have my own personal bye week off football. With only this week and next week for NFL bye weeks, the long and tedious road of the NFL season is nearing it’s home stretch as well. Injuries have made some positions wastelands, tight ends in particular. The choice ultimately is spending up or taking a low-priced boom-or-bust option.
Other positions, like running back, still have studs that are performing up to, and in some cases exceeding, their absurd prices (Hello Christian McCaffrey). It’s not out of the realm of logical building to just lock CMC into your lineup every week and go from there. Obviously, you want to remain competitive at other positions as well…but McCaffrey is hitting and exceeding value each and every week sans Week 2.
However you decide to build your lineups, always remember to practice smart roster construction methods. Late players in the FLEX. Also remember that just because a player is thrust into a starting role, it doesn’t mean that they’re going to exceed value. I’m looking at you Kalen Ballage. Last week he got 82% of the Miami Dolphins’ offensive snaps. He totaled 45 yards from scrimmage on 24 touches. That’s just not going to do it in DFS cash game plays, regardless of his cost incurred.
Some Kalen Ballage stats (PFF)
(Min. 50 attempts)
Fantasy Points per Touch: Last
Yards After Contact per Attempt: Last
Elusiveness: Second to last (ahead of David Johnson)
Longest Run: 8 yards
— Dave Loughran (@Loughy_D) November 14, 2019
Some times, bad players are bad plays. So let’s try and find some of the good ones this week. Here are some of the players I’m targeting for cash game considerations in Week 11:
Derek Carr (OAK): $7,400 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
What the Oakland Raiders and Carr have done this season has been nothing short of sensational. In a season that looked like it was going to go down in flames before the opening kickoff of the regular season, the Raiders find themselves as a legitimate playoff contender halfway through the month of November. Carr’s performance thus far has been a large reason why.
Since the Raiders’ bye week in Week 6, Carr has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL in numerous categories. Carr is a safe cash game play with enormous upside this week.
Positive Play % Leaders (QB)
Dak Prescott – 57.6%
Deshaun Watson – 54.1%
Patrick Mahomes – 52.8%
Russell Wilson – 52.5%
Derek Carr – 51.5%
— Sports Info Solutions (@SportsInfo_SIS) November 14, 2019
Jacoby Brissett (IND): $7,500 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Last week’s embarrassment to the Miami Dolphins was what most people expected the entire season from the Indianapolis Colts. Fortunately, much like the Raiders with Carr, the Colts have gotten exceptional play from Brissett. Coming off an injury is usually a risky bet, but Brissett has practiced in full for two consecutive days and looks primed to make his return in a home divisional game against the Nick Foles-led Jaguars.
Thus far this season, Brissett has played in eight games, with four at home and four on the road. His home/road splits are telling in 2019:
Jacoby Brissett has played 4 games at home & 4 games on road
Home 1,103 yds, 9 TD, 1 INT, 25.6 FP/g
Road 546 yds, 5 TD, 2 INT, 14.6 FP/g
— Heath Cummings (@heathcummingssr) November 14, 2019
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL): $8,400 @ Detroit Lions
If you’re someone who doesn’t particularly enjoy Zeke’s “Feed me more” motion, you might not want to watch this Sunday’s game. The Lions are hemorrhaging points to the running back position this season. Despite only allowing three individual 100-yard rushers thus far, the Lions are one of just 12 defenses allowing over 100 rushing yards per game to the position. Seven of the nine teams the Lions have faced have rushed for 100 or more yards this season. Only Christian McCaffrey has more 100-yard rushing games this season than Zeke. Andrew Kato over at PrideofDetroit.com took a good look at what’s going wrong with the Lions’ run defense following their loss to the Raiders in Week 9.
Speaking of the 100-yard mark, seven different running backs have topped 100 or more scrimmage yards against Detroit. The Lions are allowing the second most receiving yards to the position this season (59.4 yards per game). Elliott has been much more active in the passing game in the past two seasons as well. Don’t let last week’s bad performance cloud your judgment for Week 11. If you’re not going to spend up for CMC, Zeke should certainly be in the discussion for one of the top running back plays this week.
Josh Jacobs (OAK): $8,000 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
At this point in the season, we know what teams are bad at what they do and what teams are good at what they do. The Bengals are bad at defending the run as they rank 29th in DVOA against the run. On the season, Jacobs is one of 10 running backs averaging 20 or more touches per game. He’s #good and only going to get better.
Over the last ten years there have been seven running backs to have 900 or more YFS in their first 9 career games(not games played).
Doug Martin and…
Josh Jacobs! Pretty damn good company if you ask me
— Bobby Koch (@RekedFantasy) November 8, 2019
Calvin Ridley (ATL): $5,500 @ Carolina Panthers
As much as I wanted to put Julio Jones in this spot, James Bradberry returned to practice, albeit in limited fashion. That is a concern given his history against Jones. Bradberry’s size and skill has made for some low outputs by Jones in recent games.
Unfortunately for the Panthers, the rest of their secondary has been snake-bitten by the injury bug. Both Ross Cockrell (quad) and Donte Jackson (hip) have not practiced this week. Cockrell has played 75% of the defensive snaps on the season and Jackson has been on the field for just over 60% of the defensive snaps.
With Austin Hooper out for the foreseeable future, Ridley and Jones should be force-fed targets galore.
Mike Evans (TB): $8,200 vs. New Orleans Saints
Normally I’d be hesitant to use Evans against the Saints. Marshon Lattimore has done very well against Evans during their meetings. With Lattimore nursing a hamstring injury that has him sidelined this week in practice, Evans might be a lock for my cash lineups.
Evans leads the NFL in air yards and is ranked seventh in WOPR. Over his last four games, Evans has gone absolutely nuclear. He has 36 catches on 51 targets for 556 yards and three touchdowns. Over the last three weeks, he’s blowing away other receivers in yards per route run. Start him with confidence this week.
WR leaders in yards per route run in the last three weeks (Min 20 targets)
Mike Evans 3.41
Tyreek Hill 3.08
Julio Jones 3.00
Amari Cooper 2.99
Tyler Lockett 2.87
Michael Thomas 2.87
Kenny Golladay 2.60
Davante Adams 2.52
Christian Kirk 2.12
DJ Moore 2.07
— Bruce Matson (@MetricScout) November 14, 2019
Ross Dwelley (SF): $4,900 vs. Arizona Cardinals
Sometimes a trend is short-lived. In the case of the Cardinals vs. tight ends, it’s a recurring nightmare for Arizona each and every week. In the 10 games the Cardinals have played, they’ve allowed at least one tight end to score a touchdown in eight games. The only teams not to score a tight end touchdown against the Cardinals were the Bengals (because of a Tyler Eifert drop) and the New Orleans Saints (Despite an inactive Jared Cook, the Saints TE’s still logged five catches on eight targets for 64 yards).
Now Dwelley gets his second shot at the Cardinals in three weeks. During the last matchup between the two teams, Dwelley, in part-time duty, caught all four of his targets for 29 yards. With George Kittle missing last week’s game, Dwelley was essentially Kittle-lite.
Ross Dwelley ran a route on 84% of QB Jimmy Garoppolo's drop backs and garnered 7 targets last week.
— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) November 14, 2019
Mark Andrews (BAL): $6,900 vs. Houston Texans
Both Andrews and Raiders tight end Darren Waller are enticing options if you’re willing to spend up at the position. Fortunately or unfortunately, there are just little options at tight end this week. For Andrews, he’s likely involved in a higher scoring (and closer) matchup than Waller. Over the course of the season, the Texans have limited tight ends for the most part, but they have given up decent outings at times. Again, the options are limited and Andrews has shown that any given week he’s capable of blowing up the box score.
Buffalo Bills D/ST: $5,000 @ Miami Dolphins
While the Dolphins have had a slight resurgence towards relevance lately, I’m leaning towards the defense that is playing with playoff aspirations. The Dolphins have had multiple turnovers in six of their nine games (not nice). Over the last three games, Ryan Fitzpatrick has been sacked 11 times.
New England Patriots D/ST: $5,000 @ Philadelphia Eagles
Alshon Jeffery is looking like he’s going to miss this game, leaving the Eagles throwing the ball to a M.A.S.H. unit. When Jordan Matthews is arguably your best wide receiver in the year 2019, you want the opposing defense. The fact that the Patriots are priced the same as two other defenses is arguably the greatest example of recency bias we’ve seen. Carson Wentz and company could be in for a long day on Sunday.
Dallas Cowboys DST: $4,100 @ DET
New York Jets DST: $4,500 @ WAS