Some weeks while doing research on an NFL DFS slate, things just come crystal clear in your mind as you feel clairvoyant. Week 11 feels like one of those weeks for some reason. Whether it was putting together my preliminary cash game lineups or identifying which GPP stacks and one-off plays interest me, the answers seem clear. That said, I know by now that does not mean I should break the bank open as NFL DFS has a way of putting you back in your place in a hurry. Time will tell if I have a crystal ball into the Week 11 slate or if I get smacked back into reality on Sunday, but it is a good feeling to have heading into a week.
So, with that let’s stack’em up for Week 11.
QB Derek Carr (OAK): $7,400 / WR Tyrell Williams (OAK): $6,200 / TE Darren Waller (OAK): $6,700
There should be a lot of ownership and attention giving to Josh Jacobs with the Raiders installed as a double-digit home favorite over the Bengals who struggle to stop the run. That should open the door for a pivot to the Raiders passing game who are in an equally good spot as the Bengals pass defense ranks dead last according to FootballOutsiders Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) rankings. They have allowed a bunch of big plays this year giving up a league-low 9.37 yards per pass attempt over the last five weeks. Both Tyrell Williams and Darren Waller have big-play potential and have combined for over 40 percent of the Raiders target share in games they have played. The Bengals might also have success in the passing game against the Raiders defense to help keep the Raiders step on the gas with the primary flow of targets going through Tyler Boyd.
Bring it back with: Tyler Boyd (CIN): $5,900
QB Tom Brady (NE): $7,800 / WR Julian Edelman (NE): $7,400
You know those weeks where Tom Brady and the Patriots come out and throw the ball on like the first 15 plays of the game and then keep throwing the ball at a high rate all game long. I expect that to be the gameplan this week coming off a loss and a bye when they face the Eagles in Philadelphia. The Eagles have shown the ability to stop the run but struggle against the pass, so look for Brady to dink and dunk his way down the field all day. In a rare scenario, I think that the cheaper wide receiver, Mohamed Sanu will be higher owned than the more expensive option, Julian Edelman, so I prefer Edelman in GPPs. Also, consider James White if you want to get a double-stack as I expect him to be on the field a lot this week. The only viable bring it back option is Zach Ertz, but I’m okay with not bringing it back with an Eagles player if you want.
Bring it back with: Zach Ertz (PHI): $6,200
RB Ezekiel Elliott (DAL): $8,400 / DEF Cowboys: $4,100
I get the sense that Elliott will be lower owned then he should be this week, but I can’t understand why. The Cowboys will travel to Detroit as a small favorite which puts the game script in Elliott’s favor. The Lions have struggled to stop the run this year allowing 109 rushing yards (26th) and 1.0 rushing touchdowns (29th) per game to running backs. Elliott has at least 20 carries in four straight games and should find his way back into the end zone at least once. The Cowboys D/ST is also intriguing assuming that Matthew Stafford misses his second straight game on Sunday.
Mike Evans (WR – TB): $8,200
When Evans faced the Saints earlier this season, he put up a big goose egg with zero catches on three targets. So why recommend him as the low-owned stud this week? Simple, two words, Marshon Lattimore. Lattimore is looking doubtful to play this week due to a hamstring injury. The dropoff in the Saints secondary is significant if Lattimore can’t play, which puts Evans and his big-game potential into the mix in a game with one of the highest Vegas totals on the slate. Evans is also a couple hundred bucks more expensive than teammate Chris Godwin, who figures to get higher ownership this week.
- Josh Allen (QB – BUF): $7,800
- Raheem Mostert (RB – SF): $4,600
- Michael Gallup (WR – DAL): $6,700
- John Brown (WR – BUF): $5,900
- Marquise Brown (WR – BAL): $5,600
- Calvin Ridley (WR – ATL): $5,500
- Irv Smith Jr. (TE – MIN): $4,700