Week 12 is upon us and it’s the last of the bye weeks, meaning we’ve got just 14 games to work with on this full slate. We begin on Thursday Night Football with an exciting matchup of IND @ HOU and finish on Monday with BAL @ LAR. There’s a lot to unpack this week, so let’s get to it.
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Quarterback
Matt Ryan (ATL): $7,900 vs. TB
Ryan draws one of the best matchups in football this week, taking on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and their dreadful secondary. The Bucs have allowed the second-most points per game to opposing quarterbacks and the most points per game among teams in play this week since Arizona is on a bye. The Buccaneers have allowed at least 27 points in all but one game this season and have allowed at least 30 points in seven of 10 games. Ryan was on a roll before suffering an ankle injury back in Week 7 and his lackluster performances since returning have depressed his price below $8,000, making him an excellent value given the matchup. He’s averaging 31.92 points per game against bottom-10 pass defenses this season and with Devonta Freeman banged up and possibly out, Atlanta won’t have any semblance of a rushing attack in this one, leaving Ryan to shoulder the load in a game that should see plenty of points.
Running Back
Le’Veon Bell (NYJ): $7,300 vs. OAK
Bell’s had a string of juicy matchups and the good times will continue this week as the Jets welcome the Oakland Raiders to town. The Raiders have allowed the 12th-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs and have especially struggled against running backs in the passing game, having allowed the second-most receiving touchdowns to the position this season. Bell is known for his prowess as a pass-catcher and he should have plenty of chances to get involved both on the ground and through the air. He’s had at least 20 touches in each of the Jets’ last three games and has averaged 15.7 points per game over that stretch. The volume and production should continue for Bell in a great matchup on Sunday.
Jaylen Samuels (PIT): $6,900 or James Conner (PIT): $7,100 @ CIN
Conner’s status is still up in the air, but whichever running back starts for Pittsburgh is in a great spot this week. The Bengals have been shredded on the ground this season, having allowed the fourth-most points per game to opposing running backs this season. They’ve also allowed 4.7 YPC this season and have allowed an average of 183 rushing yards per game over their last six games. Pittsburgh is a -6.5 road favorite, meaning the game script should favor the lead back for both volume and production. The Steelers have also shied away from the pass as Mason Rudolph has looked more and more ineffective with each passing week. Both Conner and Samuels have the skills to produce in such a favorable matchup.
Wide Receiver
Julio Jones (ATL): $8,400 vs. TB
The duo of Julio Jones and Matt Ryan has been one of the most lucrative DFS stacks of the past few seasons and the classic combo is in an excellent position this week against Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers have allowed the most points per game to opposing receivers by a huge margin, which is nearly four points per game. They’ve allowed the most receiving touchdowns and are the only team to have allowed more than 2,000 receiving yards despite already having had their bye week. With three defensive backs on injured reserve and two other cornerbacks banged up, Tampa’s defense has been in free fall. They’ve allowed more than 300 yards passing for three straight games. Together, Julio Jones and Matt Ryan have huge upside and are well worth their combined salaries of $16,300.
Odell Beckham Jr. (CLE): $7,000 vs. MIA
Beckham’s production has been underwhelming this season, but his targets have been on the rise lately since he’s had double-digit targets in each of the last two games. Those games were both against tough secondaries in the Bills and Steelers, but luckily Beckham takes on the Dolphins this week.
Miami has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season along with the second-most receiving touchdowns. They’ve got two starting defensive backs on the injury report and it seems likely they will be without starting cornerback Ken Webster. Even if Webster plays, he’s a seventh-round rookie and doesn’t stand much of a chance against a receiver of Beckham’s caliber. Owners are shying away from Beckham given his disappointing season, but this is the perfect week to deploy him in DFS.
Tyrell Williams (OAK): $6,400 @ NYJ
The Raiders’ No. 1 receiver draws an excellent matchup this week, taking on a Jets defense that has surrendered the third-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season. Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams has had some serious problems with expected contributors in this secondary. Cornerback Daryl Roberts has taken a big step back after signing an offseason extension and preseason acquisition Matthias Farley has been an abomination in pass coverage. Farley has earned a PFF grade of 26.2 (on a scale of 100), the lowest of all 154 NFL safeties to receive a grade this season and the second-lowest of all graded defensive backs behind San Francisco’s Jason Verrett, who played just four snaps before being placed on injured reserve for the fourth straight year. That’s bad news if your a Jets fan, but great news for those of us looking to start Williams this week. Unheralded receivers like Darius Slayton and Preston Williams have put up big numbers against the Jets earlier this season and Tyrell Williams could follow suit with a solid performance this week.
Tight End
Ben Watson (NE): $5,300 vs. DAL
If Jason Witten is too young for you, then Watson could be more your taste. The 38-year-old who was drafted during George W. Bush’s first term has already carved out a little role for himself in the New England offense, commanding at least four targets in three of his four games this season. Even a small role in the Patriots’ offense is valuable, regardless of what Rex Ryan says. The Cowboys’ biggest defensive weakness has been tight ends this season, as they’ve allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends thus far. Watson is an under-the-radar cheap option this week in a plus matchup.
Flex
Tevin Coleman (SF): $6,300 vs. GB
Coleman was bottled up by Arizona’s rush defense for just 14 yards on 12 carries last week, which isn’t encouraging considering just how bad the Cardinals had been against the run going into Week 11, but Coleman has a nice bounce-back opportunity against Green Bay. The Packers have given up the fifth-most points to opposing running backs, along with 4.93 YPC and 11 rushing touchdowns, the second-most in the league. With Matt Breida on the shelf, there’s no one to siphon carries away from Coleman. San Francisco is a slight -3.5 point favorite and they’ll look to attack Green Bay where they’re weak in what should be a close game. That’s on the ground with Coleman, while limiting Jimmy Garoppolo’s exposure to risk. That makes Coleman an excellent play at this price.
Also Consider: Adrian Peterson (WAS): $5,800 vs. DET
Defense
Cleveland Browns: $4,500 vs. MIA
The Browns’ defense came up big last week, with four sacks and four picks against Pittsburgh on Thursday night, and now they face the lowly Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins know a thing or two about sacks, having surrendered a whopping 42 sacks through 10 games, which is tied for the highest in the league. Left tackle J’Marcus Webb has been about as effective as a parking lot bollard and he is one of three starters on this line with a PFF grade below 50. The Dolphins have also committed the fourth-most turnovers in the league with 20 and quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has been responsible for half of them despite having just made seven starts. The Browns are a decent bet to get a few sacks and a turnover or two against a struggling Miami offense.
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Elliott Baas is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Elliott, check out his archive and follow him @elliottbaasbb.
