FanDuel NFL Value Plays: Week 10 (2019)
Geoff Lambert looks at value plays for Week 10.
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The second week in a row I nailed the breakout game from a running back. Two weeks ago it was David Montgomery and last week it was Devin Singletary. The moral of the story, play my running backs because I didn’t hit on much else. You win some you lose some, here are my picks for this week.
Ryan Tannehill (TEN): $7,200 vs. KC
Tannehill has turned into a solid fantasy option since getting the job. Over the last three weeks, he has averaged 21.5 FD points, which includes last week’s game where he put up 300-plus passing yards and a touchdown while also rushing for 38 yards and another score. We all know the Chiefs’ defense is bad, and I expect the Chiefs to be winning for most of this game lending a negative game script for Tannehill to pass a ton.
Daniel Jones (NYG): $7,400 @ NYJ
If the history of Ryan Tannehill scares you off him, Jones is a slightly more expensive option with similar upside. Like Tannehill, Jones can get you some points with his rushing ability, which could lead to a rushing touchdown. The Jets rank 25th in DVOA versus the pass this season, and despite missing a few of his targets, Jones is a great value at $7,200.
Brian Hill (ATL): $5,000 @ NO
Falcons running back Ito Smith missed the last game with a concussion and is now dealing with a neck injury. If Smith gets ruled out, Hill will be the likely candidate to spell Devonta Freeman. The Saints’ run defense is good, but Hill has pass-catching ability and this game could turn into a shootout. Hill is a cheap way to get exposure to this game.
Kareem Hunt (CLE): $4,500 vs. BUF
Hunt is due to return to the field for the first time since being cut by the Kansas City Chiefs. I still expect Nick Chubb to get the volume, but Hunt will be involved in this offense as well. The common perception with the Bills is that their defense is good, and they are, but not great against the run. In fact, they rank 30th in DVOA versus the run so far this season.
Myles Gaskin (MIA): $4,500 @ IND
Gaskin is the definition of a punt play and I don’t recommend you play a ton of him in your lineups, but let me make a case for him. The first thing in Gaskin’s favor is the guy currently in front of him on the depth chart, Kalen Ballage.
So far this season, Ballage has averaged a mere two yards per carry. To put that into perspective, quarterback Philip Rivers averages 2.4 yards per carry on the season. Next, he can’t catch. He has 12 targets on the season, but has only caught three of them, and on those mere 12 targets, he is tied for ninth in the NFL in drops with three. He has as many drops as he has catches!
I really liked Gaskin coming out of college and he made my pre-draft top-50 fantasy rookies this year. He will finally get a shot to show what he can do — play at your own risk.
Calvin Ridley (ATL): $5,300 @ NO
The Falcons’ matchup with the Saints has the makings of a shootout and I want to get a piece of this game in a lot of my lineups. A cheap way to do that is with Calvin Ridley. Shut down corner Marshon Lattimer will likely follow Julio Jones, leaving Ridley with Eli Apple. That matchup favors Ridley as an elite route-runner. Quarterback Matt Ryan will likely go over 50 pass attempts this game, there should be plenty of fantasy goodness to go around.
Josh Reynolds (LAR): $5,200 @ PIT
Fellow wide receiver Brandin Cooks as already been ruled out for this game with another concussion, leaving Reynolds to pick up a ton of those snaps. In fact, when Cooks went down last week, Reynolds was on the field for 88 percent of the snaps. With him practicing with the first-team offense all week, he will be more prepared to make an impact on this game.
O.J. Howard (TB): $5,000 vs. ARI
In the NFL, any time you have a strength versus strength situation, like a good running back playing a good run defense, something has to give and one of them will come out on top. Well, this is the exact opposite of that. O.J. Howard has been terrible for fantasy this season, while the Cardinals have been, by far, the worst team at defending the tight end position. Last week against the 49ers’ fantasy stud tight end Ross Dwelly had four catches for 29 yards — he had a combined three catches in the seven games before that. So, what happens when terrible meets terrible? Let’s hope it’s Howard that comes out on top.
Carolina Panthers: $3,300 @ GB
This is the third week in a row I’ve had the Panthers as my value defense, and I’m 1-1 so far as they scored 11 FanDuel points last week thanks to four sacks, two interceptions, and a fumble recovery. As great as Aaron Rodgers is, he is known to hold the ball too long and it leads to sacks. He has been sacked 20 times this season, good for the 12th most in the league.