Geoff Lambert looks at value plays for Week 11.
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Can you believe it’s Week 11 already? Just a few more weeks and the NFL regular season will be over. I feel like the season just started. Well, no sense worrying about that yet. We have a nice sized slate to look at this week.
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Quarterbacks
Kyle Allen (CAR): $7,200 vs. ATL
The Falcons, despite playing better last week, are still 31st in DVOA versus the pass (only the Bengals are worse). Allen also has the best weapon in the NFL, Christian McCaffery, and his wide receivers, D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel, both have big-play ability. The three of them together form a dangerous group of playmakers — all Allen has to do is get them the ball. This game has the second-highest over/under on the slate at 50. There should be plenty of points to go around in this one.
Running Backs
Raheem Mostert (SF): $4,600 vs. ARI
Starting running back Matt Breida is expected to miss this game, and while the 49ers still have Tevin Coleman, they like to run a two-back system. Mostert is the most efficient of the three running backs, averaging 5.5 yards per carry, which is the highest mark in the league among running backs with at least 60 carries. Breida and Coleman racked up 164 yards on the ground in their last meeting two weeks ago. I’d expect something similar in this game.
Derrius Guice (WAS): $4,700 vs. NYJ
Interm coach Bill Callahan has already announced that Guice will have a role in the offense this weekend and many expect him to play the “Chris Thompson” role as the third-down back. Rookie quarterback Dwayne Haskins is still very green as a starting signal-caller and will likely look to checkdown to Guice a lot in this game. That could lead to a big play or two against a Jets defense that gives up an average of eight catches and 50 yards to running backs this season.
Wide Receivers
Auden Tate (CIN): $5,300 @ OAK
The Raiders’ run defense has been very stout and will force the Bengals to throw it a lot more than they want. Despite running back Joe Mixon’s good game on the ground last week, Tate still received six targets. Granted, they didn’t equate to a lot of yardage, but the volume is still there. For as good as the Raiders are against the run, they are equally as bad versus the pass at 29th in DVOA.
Russell Gage (ATL): $5,300 @ CAR
I had Gage as one of my value picks last week and looking at his box score, you might wonder why I’m going back to him this week. His four targets were second only to Julio Jones among the wide receivers and third if you include tight end Austin Hooper. Hooper (knee) is expected to be out for this game, leaving a ton of targets on the table that Gage could easily pick up. As I mentioned earlier, this game has a high point total and Gage gives you some cheap exposure.
Tights Ends
Ross Dwelley (SF): $4,900 vs. ARI
Starting tight end George Kittle is expected to miss his second straight week, leaving Dwelley as the de facto starter. The Cardinals are terrible at defending the tight end position. In fact, only twice in 10 games has a tight end not scored a touchdown this season when playing them. They are dead last in DVOA against the position, giving up a whopping 8.5 catches and 85.8 yards per game to opposing tight ends.
Defense
Atlanta Falcons: $3,500 @ CAR
I had a hard time finding a value defense this week, but if I’m forced to pick one, the Falcons would be my choice. Yes, they have been pretty bad all season, but they actually showed flashes last week against their division rival, the Saints. This week, they have another divisional game against a second-year quarterback that has a tendency to turn the ball over. At $3,500, they don’t have to do much.
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