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FanDuel NFL Value Plays: Week 12 (2019)

Nov 22, 2019

Sam Darnold had his best fantasy performance of the season last week and could be in line for another great game this week.

Geoff Lambert looks at NFL DFS value plays for Week 12.

This piece is part of our article program that features quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from Geoff, head over to GoingFor2.com.

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Quarterbacks

Baker Mayfield (CLE): $7,500 vs. MIA
Mayfield is coming off his best fantasy game since Week 6 when they played the Seahawks’ soft pass defense. This week he gets the leagues worst pass defense, ranking 32nd versus the pass and 31st overall. The Browns, while still not meeting preseason expectations, are starting to play better in recent weeks. Baker has two straight multi-touchdown games, which happens to be his only multi-touchdown games this season, he can make it three straight this weekend.

Sam Darnold (NYJ): $7,400 vs. OAK
From one struggling second-year quarterback to another struggling second-year quarterback. Darnold has not lived up to the lofty expectations placed on him in the preseason, but, like Mayfield, he is playing better of late. He is coming off his best fantasy game this season, putting up four touchdowns on the Redskins last week who rank 26th in DVOA versus the pass. The Raiders aren’t much better as they rank 23rd. Darnold may not put up another four-touchdown game, but he should be good enough to be viable this week.

Running Backs

Royce Freeman (DEN): $5,300 @ BUF
Most NFL fans view the Bills defense as a good defense, which they are, ranking 14th in DVOA overall, however, they are not good at stopping teams on the ground, checking in at 27th versus the run. Freeman has been less involved in the offense over the last few weeks, but with the Bills unable to stop the run, look for the Broncos to run a ton in this game. That gives both Phillip Lindsey and Freeman a good shot at fantasy relevance — Freeman is a full grand cheaper.

Kareem Hunt (CLE) $5,600 vs. MIA
The answer is, “Yes”. The question? Can Hunt and Nick Chubb coexist? Hunt has 23 touches over the last two weeks. Chubb has 49 total touches over that same span. The matchup couldn’t be better for Hunt as they rank 29th in DVOA versus the run, but also rank 32nd versus pass-catching running backs. With 10 rushes and 13 catches these last two weeks, Hunt can take advantage of both weaknesses.

Wide Receivers

Robby Anderson (NYJ): $5,400 vs. OAK
Anderson has made this column a few times this season, but he has yet to pan out for me. I’m going to take one more shot on him this week against the 23rd ranked pass defense. Anderson had only one catch last week, but it did go for a touchdown. Darnold should have time to push the ball down the field against this defense — it will only take one deep touchdown for Anderson to pay off his salary.

Tight Ends

Kaden Smith (NYG): $4,000 @ CHI
Who? Yeah, that’s exactly what I said when I looked up the tight end that would start if both Evan Engram and Rhett Ellison misses this game, which is looking more and more likely as we approach Sunday. Smith isn’t going to wow you with his athletism, but quarterback Daniel Jones likes to look for his tight ends in the red zone. One catch for 10 yards and a touchdown is all you would need from Smith to make it worth rostering him. The Bears rank 28th in DVOA versus the tight end position on the season.

Defense

Denver Broncos: $3,800 @ BUF
The Broncos defense has started to get more pressure on the quarterback in recent weeks, registering four or more sacks in two of their last three games. Quarterback Josh Allen is known for his inconsistent accuracy and could toss an interception or two. This game could turn into a defense game and at $3,800 the Broncos are the cheapest defense I’d play this week.

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