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Fantasy Football Feast or Famine: Week 12 (2019)

Nov 21, 2019

Look for Allen Robinson to pop off against the Giants this week.

The end of the fantasy season is about to rear-end a lot of people. I’m not just talking fender bender, I’m talking full-fledged, “How on earth did this happen?”

Austin Ekeler and D.J. Chark are both inside the top-five at their respective positions, and New England’s defense would be a QB1. It’s been that kind of a fantasy season.

If you’re busy trying to figure out whether Lamar Jackson will score 25 or 35 points this week, I can’t help you. And frankly, all of those who don’t own him hate you.

However, I can help you decide on players that many experts can’t agree on. So, let’s take a look at what to make of this week’s most divisive ranks.

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Sam Darnold (NYJ)
Highest rank: QB8. Lowest Rank: QB23.

After three weeks where he threw for a combined three touchdowns and eight interceptions, Sam Darnold is finally back on the fantasy radar. Darnold has totaled 21.7 and 26.4 points in his last two matchups and could keep going in Week 12.

Darnold will be going up against a Raiders defense this week that has been quite generous to opposing quarterbacks, especially on the road. How generous? Oakland has allowed an average of 287 passing yards, 3.25 touchdowns, and 22 rushing yards to quarterbacks away from home. This is all despite the fact that Kirk Cousins only had to attempt 21 passes against them. Just one of their eight interceptions this year have come on the road.

Darnold belongs in the QB1 conversation this week.

Prediction: Feast

Other feasters: Jeff Driskel (DET) at WAS, Baker Mayfield (CLE) vs. MIA, Mitch Trubisky (CHI) vs. NYG.

Jared Goff (LAR)
Highest rank: QB11. Lowest rank: QB26.

Make it back-to-back weeks that Jared Goff appears in this section of the article. Why? Well, when Deshaun Watson, Tom Brady, and Russell Wilson averaged 11.6 fantasy points against a defense, you don’t want to start the quarterback that’s facing them. It’s that simple.

Jared Goff has had fewer than seven fantasy points in three of his last five games, rendering his floor as scary as they come. He’s not worth a start against Baltimore.

Prediction: Famine

Other famines: Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) vs. GB, Tom Brady (NE) vs. DAL.

Running Backs

David Montgomery (CHI)
Highest rank: RB8. Lowest rank: RB30.

Nine running backs have had more than 13 touches against the Giants this season, here’s how they’ve done (in order) in half PPR leagues: 12.8, 15.3, 12.6, 6.5, 22.8, 12.3, 34, 13.9, and 14.8. Peyton Barber was the only one to score fewer than 12.3.

David Montgomery has garnered at least 14 touches in four consecutive games and in seven of ten contests this season. More than 70 percent of the fantasy points allowed by the Giants to running backs have come on the ground — meaning this should be more of a Montgomery game than a Tarik Cohen one.

Prediction: Feast

Other feasters: Ronald Jones (TB) at ATL, Kareem Hunt (CLE) vs. MIA.

Brian Hill (ATL)
Highest rank: RB13. Lowest rank: RB49.

One way or another, the Buccaneers have managed to slow down every running back they’ve faced. Christian McCaffrey posted just 31 yards on 22 carries against Tampa, although his day was saved by two scores. Alvin Kamara’s day in Week 11 looked better in PPR formats, due to his 10 receptions — which went for a mere 47 yards, by the way.

Hill disappointed in a smash spot last week, despite a fantastic game-script. He is likely to disappoint once again in Week 12.

Prediction: Famine

Other famines: Joe Mixon (CIN) vs. PIT, Todd Gurley (LAR) vs. BAL.

Wide Receivers

Allen Robinson (CHI)
Highest rank: WR10. Lowest rank: WR38.

The fact that Allen Robinson is even remotely fantasy-relevant, despite catching passes from Mitchell Trubortles, is quite an accomplishment. If you want some examples of Trubisky’s accuracy, here’s him playing basketball:

Here’s a depiction of him going to the bathroom:

Here’s him attempting a high-five:

This is him trying to drink:

And finally, here’s Trubisky attempting to showcase his soccer skills:

All that said, it is always wise to start a heavily-targeted receiver against the New York Giants. 13 receivers have been targets six-plus times against New York, here’s how they’ve fared in half PPR formats: 19.6, 19.3, 10.7, 41, 28.5, 15.8, 25.3, 13.5, 16, 10.3, 4.5, 16.6, and 11.4.

Allen Robinson has received at least six targets in all but one game this year. If you own Robinson, you should start him.

Prediction: Feast

Other feasters: Jamison Crowder (NYJ) vs. OAK, Tyrell Williams (OAK) at NYJ.

Marquise Brown (BAL)
Highest rank: WR15. Lowest rank: WR58.

Over the four games since he was acquired by the Rams, Jalen Ramsey has shadowed three receivers: Julio Jones, who posted a line of 6/93/0, JuJu Smith-Schuster, who managed 3/44/0, and Allen Robinson, who earned just 4/15/0.

Marquise Brown has had a couple of explosive performances in 2019, but he’s also failed to reach double-digit points in half PPR formats in five of his eight contests. Don’t expect too much from him in Week 12.

Prediction: Famine

Other famines: Michael Gallup (DAL) at NE, Mohamed Sanu (NE) vs. DAL.

Tight Ends

Ryan Griffin (NYJ)
Highest rank: TE3. Lowest rank: TE25.

Only one tight end has totaled 100 receiving yards since Week 9, and that was Ryan Griffin against the Redskins last week. In fact, Griffin is the TE2 since Week 8.

This week, Griffin will face an Oakland secondary that has allowed the fifth-most points to opposing tight ends. Along with the Cardinals and Buccaneers, the Raiders are just one of three teams to allow a touchdown to six different tight ends this season. Griffin is a top-eight option in Week 12.

Prediction: Feast


Check out my rankings to see where the rest of your players stack up:

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Elisha Twerski is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Elisha, check out his archive or follow him @ElishaTwerski.

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