At some point in the season, fantasy owners need to forget entirely about pedigree or the amount of draft capital or FAAB they spent. Waiting for the slow starters to finally come around will, at some point, no longer be worth the risk.
That point is now. There are only a few weeks before your fantasy playoffs begin. At this point, your poor performers likely ARE poor performers. Your worries are probably justified.
Here, as we do each week, we’ll examine some underperformers from this week and whether fantasy owners should be panicking about their play.
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David Johnson (RB – ARI) – Panic Meter Rating: 10
Johnson had, for all intents and purposes, missed the Cardinals’ last three games with various injuries (he had just one touch against the Giants in one of those games). But, after a mini-bye, he was ready to return for Week 10 against the Bucs. Sure, Kenyan Drake had been magnificent against the 49ers, but this was Johnson’s backfield. And yet, against the Bucs:
- Johnson: six touches for eight yards and a lost fumble; 45% of the snaps
- Drake: 16 touches for 41 yards; 63% of the snaps
Drake wasn’t particularly impressive (though that shouldn’t be a surprise against a strong Bucs’ run defense), but he certainly outperformed Johnson. But perhaps even more than the performances, the snap count raises major red flags. There are only two explanations, neither of which is good for Johnson. Either he still is not fully healthy, or Drake is simply performing better. Either way, the panic level on Johnson should be sky-high, so much to the point where you likely can’t consider starting him unless there are significant positive developments.
Tyrell Williams (WR – OAK) – Panic Meter Rating: 8
Williams missed nearly the entire month of October with plantar fasciitis and had 91 yards receiving and a touchdown in his first game back. That game against the Texans marked his fifth straight with a touchdown. Since then, he has six catches for 73 yards with no scores in his last two games.
Williams’ catches over his last five games: 3, 3, 3, 3, 3. I’m not a statistician but that looks like a pattern to me. The Raiders are a competitive ballclub and have one of the best running backs in football. Thus, they’re content to lean on their run game, which is why Derek Carr hasn’t topped 32 pass attempts in any of his last six games.
With few pass attempts to go around, Darren Waller remaining a key cog in the offense, Hunter Renfrow emerging, Zay Jones on board, and Williams likely less than 100%, Williams is rapidly turning into a touchdown-or-bust WR3.
Devin Singletary (RB – BUF) – Panic Meter Rating: 5
It seems strange to have someone like Singletary, who hadn’t been considered a viable fantasy option all year prior to this week, on the panic meter. But his strong performance against the Redskins in Week 9, combined with Frank Gore’s ineffectiveness at the goal-line, instantly boosted Singletary into RB2 territory.
But against the Browns, he received only 11 touches. And although he was effective with those touches, the lack of usage, coming off a game in which he touched the ball 23 times, is disconcerting.
In the end, however, he played 69% of the snaps compared to Frank Gore’s 31% and, as usual, he looked far more effective. With a game against the Dolphins on tap, Singletary has a good chance to bounce back. But he merits a mention on the panic meter due to his drop in usage.
JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR – PIT) – Panic Meter Rating: 9
I’m not telling you that you have to bench or cut Smith-Schuster. He’s obviously as talented as they come, and he’s capable of the occasional big game like he showed against the Dolphins. But realistically, it’s hard to value him as anything more than a borderline WR3 at this point.
Smith-Schuster has totaled 15, 75, 7, 103, 16, and 44 yards over his last six games. He has had more than five catches once and scored only two touchdowns. Mason Rudolph has no interest in taking chances or pushing the ball down the field, and with an excellent defense after the addition of Minkah Fitzpatrick, the Steelers are content to play things conservatively.
The only reason Smith-Schuster does not rank as a 10 on the panic mater is his upcoming schedule of the Browns, Bengals, Browns, and Cardinals. None of those four defenses is particularly strong against wide receivers, and there remains a chance for Smith-Schuster to have a big day. But, for the most part, the panic meter rating is sky-high.
David Montgomery (RB – CHI) – Panic Meter Rating: 6
Montgomery is one of those running backs that most fantasy players wish they didn’t have on their rosters. He has one game with over 67 yards and two games with 20 touches or more. And after he dominated against the Chargers and scored twice against the Eagles, he walked into a matchup with the Lions, who allow the most fantasy points to opposing running backs . . . and laid an egg. Thus, fantasy owners are forced to play him but are rarely satisfied.
And yet, Montgomery is the bell-cow back for a team that wants to run the ball a great deal and will give him all the goal-line carries. And his remaining schedule (Rams, Giants, Lions, Cowboys, Packers, and Chiefs) is extremely favorable.
In other words, the game against the Lions was Montgomery’s opportunity to show himself to be a strong RB2. He clearly didn’t do it. But in the end, there are few running backs in as favorable a situation as Montgomery, and that keeps him from jumping too high on the panic meter.
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Dan Harris is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter @danharris80.