How soon after the season starts do you go back through your league’s draft and say to yourself, “I should’ve taken him over him?” After one week? Yeah, me too. Sometimes it’s obvious you made a mistake, but most of the time it’s just the inherent randomness of this game we love.

We are now roughly halfway through the season. It’s as good of a time as any to put on our hindsight glasses and take a look back and what we ideally should have done had we known then what we know now.

For the purposes of this analysis, I am focusing on realistic selections, not on what would happen if we redrafted now. For example, D.J. Chark and Terry McLaurin would likely be fourth or fifth-round picks. Their names will not even appear in this study because they simply weren’t on the redraft radar in 12 team leagues. Let’s assume a middle selection because it makes things more interesting. Now, let’s go take a look at what we should have done in every round.

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Round 1

Targets: Ezekiel Elliott, David Johnson, James Conner, DeAndre Hopkins, Nick Chubb

Avoid: Le’Veon Bell, Davante Adams

Ideal Selection: Michael Thomas

Analysis: We came into 2019 with a “Big 7” at wide receiver. Halfway through the season, only one of them has lived up to the billing. Going full 2018 Davante Adams, Michael Thomas has yet to score fewer than 16 fantasy points in a given week. The knock on him was that he is incapable of the splash play and cannot produce without volume. Well, the volume has been there every single week with double-digit targets in all but two games.

Elliott, Johnson, Conner, and Hopkins have all been good; they just haven’t been worthy of first-round status, with the exception of Johnson, who is now hurt. Bell and Adams have been victimized by a poor offense and injury, respectively. It is very close between Thomas and Chubb with Chubb sitting as the overall RB5 through eight weeks, but Thomas is the unquestioned overall WR1 right now and the best first-round fantasy asset outside of Christian McCaffrey.

Round 2

Targets: Mike Evans

Avoid: Travis Kelce, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Odell Beckham Jr., Joe Mixon, Todd Gurley, Antonio Brown

Ideal Selection: Dalvin Cook

Analysis: The second round was filled with landmines. Other than AB, every second round target is someone that is good enough to warrant being in your starting lineup every week in some capacity, but nowhere near worthy of their draft position. Kelce is the overall TE3 on the season at 14.3 ppg, but when you spend a top 24 pick on a tight end, he needs to be the best at the position by a decent margin. Kelce has performed like a random WR3. Mixon has been vanquished by his team’s inept offense and poor offensive line. Gurley has split snaps with Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson while looking far less explosive than the 2018 version. JuJu and Beckham have just been busts due in large part to poor quarterback play.

Evans has lived up to his ADP, currently positioned as the overall WR4, but the nod goes to Cook. The overall RB2 is averaging about four more PPG than Evans and, most importantly, is at a position where there are very few true three-down backs. Cook has finished as a top-five running back six times already with his “down weeks” being RB11 and RB20. He is a high floor, high ceiling player and would be an unquestioned top-five pick right now.

Round 3

Targets: George Kittle, Stefon Diggs, Amari Cooper, Leonard Fournette

Avoid: Brandin Cooks, Devonta Freeman, Damien Williams, Zach Ertz

Ideal Selection: Aaron Jones

Analysis: For as tough as the second round was to navigate, you had to try really hard to blow your third-round pick. The third round is historically a bit of a wasteland in fantasy as the drop off from the reliable guys hits hard and the caliber of player is not much better than in the fourth or fifth. That is not the case in 2019. If you drafted any of Kittle, Diggs, Cooper, or Fournette, you are most pleased.

Cooks’ complete face plant was hard to predict, but Freeman, Williams, and Ertz were easily avoided for the most part. Freeman hasn’t been good in three years and between the injuries and the competition for snaps, banking on a rebound for an undersized, not particularly athletic player wasn’t a stretch. Williams was purely a product of situation and opportunity. All it was going to take was one injury and he would never get his job back, which is exactly what happened. Ertz was a product of volume due to the Eagles’ lack of passing game options. Once they added DeSean Jackson, Miles Sanders, and got a fully healthy Alshon Jeffery, it was obvious that Ertz was not going to see the same target share he did in 2018, yet he was being drafted as if 2018 was the norm. Ertz is not even if the best tight end on his own team.

That brings us to Jones. The answer should be Fournette, but he is apparently allergic to the end zone. Jones…not so much. Fournette is severely underperforming his expected touchdown total, while Jones is overperforming. That’s certainly a recipe for regression for both players, but for fantasy, our focus is on what is happening. Through eight weeks, Jones is not only the overall RB3, but he’s posted two 40 point weeks. And that’s while splitting snaps with Jamaal Williams. Jones may regress, but through eight weeks, he was the clear best pick in the third round.

Round 4

Targets: Marlon Mack, T.Y. Hilton, Mark Ingram, Kenny Golladay, Tyler Lockett

Avoid: Robert Woods, Sony Michel, David Montgomery

Ideal Selection: Cooper Kupp or Chris Godwin

Analysis: Sometimes the best pick is obvious. In this case, take your pick between Cooper Kupp and Chris Godwin. You couldn’t go wrong. Godwin is currently averaging 1.2 more PPG than Kupp. They are the overall WR2 and WR3, respectively. They have very similar game logs. They’ve pretty much been the same player.

Mack has played way better than anyone expected in a post-Andrew Luck world. Ingram has been worthy of his draft position, but as the overall RB14, he hasn’t provided the positive return that Godwin and Kupp have. Golladay and Lockett both sit right around the WR1/2 border and have been great values; they just haven’t been as good as Kupp and Godwin.

Round 5

Targets: Tyler Boyd, Phillip Lindsay, James White

Avoid: O.J. Howard, Mike Williams, D.J. Moore, any quarterback

Ideal Selection: Evan Engram

Analysis: The fifth round proved quite tough this season. No one reasonably in that range has been a great value. Evan Engram gets the nod because he is currently top five at a position where there are about seven players worth starting every week.

Boyd, Lindsay, and White have been good, not great, but if you took any one of them over Howard, Williams, Moore, or a quarterback, you did quite well. There is better value in the coming rounds.

Round 6

Targets: Tevin Coleman, Allen Robinson

Avoid: Josh Gordon, Tarik Cohen, A.J. Green, Derrius Guice, any quarterback

Ideal Selection: Austin Ekeler

Analysis: There was a lot you needed to sidestep in the sixth round as well. Everyone on the “avoids” list has been a complete zero. Coleman has been fantastic when on the field, but he did miss a month. Robinson has been a low WR1, making him a fantastic value. He’s firmly in second place here.

The clear and obvious best pick would have been Ekeler. Despite Melvin Gordon coming back to ruin the party, Ekeler sits as the overall RB4 and has played better than Gordon every game. Gordon’s ineffectiveness could eventually push this timeshare back in Ekeler’s favor. Even if it doesn’t, the wins Ekeler got you to start the season are invaluable.

Round 7

As we get into the latter stages of drafts, the potential player pool becomes larger and the value becomes less certain. For the sake of brevity, I am limiting the list of players to the most prominent ones.

Targets: Emmanuel Sanders, Christian Kirk, Curtis Samuel

Avoid: Robby Anderson, Vance McDonald, David Njoku, Corey Davis

Ideal Selection: Russell Wilson

Analysis: It is rare that a quarterback is the right pick, but I’m giving the nod to Russell Wilson since he’s been the overall QB3 through eight weeks and has multiple matchup-changing performances.

Kirk has been a high WR3 while Sanders and Samuel have been low WR3s. Getting starting-caliber players in the seventh round is good value, but as it turned out, there were plenty of viable WR2s and WR3s to be had later and in free agency, making the elite QB1 the best value.

Round 8

Targets: Matt Breida, LeSean McCoy, Jordan Howard

Avoid: Rashaad Penny, Cam Newton, Eric Ebron

Ideal Selection: Courtland Sutton

Analysis: Despite playing with Joe Flacco, Courtland Sutton has been a mid WR2 through the first eight weeks of the season. Sutton has elite athleticism and fantastic ball skills. He has elite WR1 upside if he ever gets a quarterback.

Howard has been a low RB2 and is trending upwards while McCoy and Breida have been RB3s. Given their ADPs, they have all been positive returns on investments. However, none of them have been the value that Sutton has been.

Round 9

Targets: Royce Freeman, Kyler Murray

Avoid: Ben Roethlisberger, Geronimo Allison, Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Ideal Selection: Austin Hooper

Analysis: Not only is Austin Hooper the overall TE1, but it’s also not particularly close. He has 1.6 PPG on the TE2 and his 17.9 PPG would make him the overall WR8. He is everything Travis Kelce was supposed to be, except seven rounds later.

Freeman and Murray have been good. Freeman has been a solid RB3 while Murray has been a back end QB1 who was a mid QB1 before two duds Weeks 7 and 8. But when you can get the best player at a position in the ninth round, you do it. Hooper has been a league winning pick.

Round 10

Targets: Michael Gallup

Avoid: James Washington, Tony Pollard

Ideal Selection: Lamar Jackson

Analysis: This one easily could have gone to Michael Gallup. Getting a WR2/3 in the double-digit rounds is what you strive for. With that being said, Jackson has been the best quarterback in fantasy and is showing no signs of slowing down. If you had already drafted Russell Wilson, though, Gallup would’ve been the move.

Round 11

Targets: Dak Prescott, D.K. Metcalf

Avoid: Donte Moncrief, Anthony Miller

Ideal Selection: Tyrell Williams

Analysis: Prescott has been the overall QB4, but just not enough of a difference-maker to justify the quarterback over the wide receiver. Metcalf is surviving on touchdowns, but still isn’t being targeted enough. Tyrell Williams did miss two games, but he’s been a WR2 otherwise, scoring a touchdown in every game he’s played. When you can get an NFL team’s WR1 in the 11th round and that player is actually talented, you do it.

Round 12

Targets: Jamison Crowder, Ronald Jones

Avoid: Trey Burton, Keke Coutee

Ideal Selection: John Brown

Analysis: Much like Tyrell Williams, John Brown entered the season as his team’s WR1. Even with his quarterback being Josh Allen, he was someone worth targeting. Brown has been a WR2/3 playing with a bad quarterback. Crowder has been useful and Jones has had a couple of moments as well. In an area of the draft where 90% of players are useless, they have at least been not that, but Brown has been an every-week starter.

Round 13

Targets: None

Avoid: Everyone

Ideal Selection: Mark Andrews

Analysis: At this point in any draft, you’re just throwing darts. If you threw one at Mark Andrews, you hit big. Andrews is currently the overall TE5 on the season; fantastic value in the 13th round.

Round 14

Targets: None

Avoid: Everyone

Ideal Selection: Darren Waller

Analysis: The analysis here is identical to that of Andrews above, with the slight change being that Waller is the overall TE3.

Round 15

Targets: Defenses

Avoid: Everyone

Ideal Selection: Patriots Defense

Analysis: Imagine getting a top 12 fantasy asset in the 15th round? Well, for those of you who drafted the Patriots defense, you got just that. With one of the easiest schedules to start the season in NFL history, the Patriots have been unstoppable and a true difference-maker at a largely ignored position.

Round 16

Targets: Kickers

Avoid: Everyone

Ideal Selection: None

Analysis: Justin Tucker never makes it to the last round and the majority of the top kickers were undrafted or weekly streamers. You should stream kicker.

Bonus Round

D.J. Chark and Terry McLaurin weren’t really on anyone’s draft board. They were the hot Week 1 pickups and worth every dollar you spent to acquire them. It goes without saying that each would be an ideal pick in any of the double-digit rounds. Chark is currently the overall WR6 while McLaurin is the overall WR15. It is rare that free-agent pickups are this valuable, so if you were able to snag either one, kudos to you.

Final Thoughts

While going through this exercise, I couldn’t help but think of how much I want to do this again after the season. There is a lot of football behind us, but also a lot of football left to be played. It will be very interesting to see how many of the ideal picks change when we have a full season to look back on.

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Jason Katz is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive,  follow him @jasonkatz13.