Monkey Knife Fight Best Bets Week 10 (2019 Fantasy Football)
Welcome to Monkey Knife Fight. Monkey Knife Fight is the fastest growing DFS site in the industry. They offer an array of player prop prediction based contests. These can be based either on fantasy point totals or stat totals. Fantasy point totals when you cannot choose the player combinations is a tough sell, so it is natural that we gravitate towards the stat totals.
The over/under contests seem to present the most value to the average fantasy football or DFS player. Their multipliers range from 1.28 all the way to 100 times your wager in the stat shootout contest.
Why over/unders? Over/under totals allow us to put our fantasy football and prediction skills to the test. Fantasy football players are already aware of things like home/road splits, key injuries that could affect totals, rushing or receiving yards against, and recent statistical trends that could play a role in whether or not a player, or a combination of players, reaches or fails to reach a certain stat target.
It is important to note that Monkey Knife Fight’s player prop offerings, especially the over/under combinations and totals are dynamic and constantly changing throughout the week. This means a few minutes shopping for ideal lines from Monday to Sunday could be well worth the time investment. For Week 10, our friends at Monkey Knife Fight have agreed to lock in one of the player prop combinations we have identified as the top play of the week. Let’s dig in.
Davante Adams (WR – GB) over 79.5 receiving yards
Christian McCaffrey (RB – CAR) over 91.5 rushing yards
Davante Adams is averaging 83.8 receiving yards on the season. However, this number is a little misleading, and provides a potential edge as far as the 79.5 receiving yard total is concerned. Adams was averaging 94.5 receiving yards per game prior to his injury. He did so on nine targets per game. In Week 9 Adams saw 11 targets. He managed just 41 yards receiving and dragged his season average numbers down in the process.
Slated to do battle with Carolina Panthers corner James Bradberry, Adams, who is fifth in the league with 2.97 yards per route run, should see enough volume to surpass the posted total. Bradberry is a tough matchup who has held opposing wide receivers to an excellent 52.3 completion percentage and just 6.6 yards per target. However, Bradberry has allowed 5.3 receptions per game. The Panther star corner missed practice on Friday and ended up watching from the sidelines. Bradberry was unable to finish Week 9’s contest due to a groin injury. Adams would have a much easier time hitting this total if Bradberry were to miss this weekend’s contest, or if he were to see his snaps limited.
The Panthers have allowed at least 80 yards receiving to a wide receiver six times this season. They have allowed 97.14 receiving yards per game to the receivers they have faced ranked as WR1’s. Adams has quietly posted a career-high 68.1 percent catch rate, and a 71.9 percent first down rate this season. In a contest with a five-point spread that is projected to be competitive we should look to take advantage of what will likely be the lowest Davante Adams receiving yard player prop total we will see all season.
Christian McCaffrey has been remarkable this season. He is the number one fantasy player and leads the league with 110.1 rushing yards per game. McCaffrey has averaged over 150 yards from scrimmage per contest. The 91.5 rushing yard total would be a daunting total for most any other running back, but that is not the case when we are talking about the most productive back in the league during the 2019 season.
McCaffrey is averaging a career-high with a robust 5.3 yards per carry on the season. This week is facing a Green Bay Packers defense that has allowed 4.89 yards per carry, a mark that ranks as the fourth worst in the league. The Packers have allowed five instances of over 140 rushing yards to opposing running backs this season.
McCaffrey is truly the engine of the Panthers offense, and it appears that only an injury can stop him from eclipsing the posted total in this matchup. He has only failed to cross the 91.5 rushing yard mark twice this season, both instances came against what was then the top rushing defense in the league in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
McCaffrey has been much better under center this season. He dominates under center to the tune of 7.3 yards per carry versus the 3.5 yards per carry he generates in shotgun. Unfortunately, according PlayerProfiler, the gun is a formation he has lined up in 53.5 percent of the time. If the Panthers go gun heavy to avoid the Packers pass rush, it may take a significantly higher amount of carries for the Panthers running back to reach the total.
Since we dug into every player prop combination of the week, there were other player prop combinations that caught our eye this week. There is no guarantee the combinations below will still be available by the time you read this, but the individual totals, or the combinations are worth keeping a lookout for. Good luck in your contests this weekend.