Welcome to Monkey Knife Fight. In case you have been sleeping under a rock or have been otherwise preoccupied, Monkey Knife Fight is the hottest new name in the DFS arena. Instead of offering the tried and true, but oversaturated salary cap based contests, Monkey Knife Fight (MKF) has tried something new. They offer player prop-like offerings that allow fantasy and DFS players to make predictions on fantasy point and stat-based totals.
Monkey Knife Fight’s over/under contests present the most appeal. Their totals and player combinations are dynamic, which means the totals and player combinations are constantly changing throughout the week. This makes it imperative that DFS players shop lines and combos to find top values. It also presents some uncertainty. However, our friends at MKF were able to lock in our top player prop combination of the week. We went through every single player prop combination offered and identified what appears to be the top play for Week 11. Let’s dig in.
Christian McCaffrey (RB – CAR) over 95.5 rushing yards
Julio Jones (WR – ATL) over 6.5 receptions
Christian McCaffrey comes into this contest averaging a league-leading 109.9 rushing yards per game. At 5.3 yards per carry, McCaffrey ranks first among players with at least 100 carries on the season. He has cleared the posted total in six of his nine contests this season. Two of the contests he failed to clear the mark were against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and what was then their NFC leading run defense. The other contest was a 93 rushing yard performance against the Houston Texans. If we were to exclude his two stinkers against the Buccaneers, McCaffrey would be averaging an insane 131.57 rushing yards per contest.
This weekend he will be going up a Falcons defense that has rated much better than one may expect from a team that has struggled with game script issues and sits at a 2-7 record (the same record as the Miami Dolphins). The Falcons have allowed 94.89 rushing yards per game, but have limited opponents to an impressive 3.92 yards per carry. They have allowed the running backs of just four of the nine teams they faced this season to eclipse 95.5 rushing yards. Only two, Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry have gone over the mark by themselves. This is a well-set line that will likely attract action on both sides.
While McCaffrey is not elite in the broken tackles category, according to Sports Info Solutions, he still has a solid 18.4 broken tackle rate. To put this number in context, Dalvin Cook sits at 17.7. Derrick Henry, one of the elites in that category sits at 21.4. An ability to break tackles will be critical in McCaffrey’s quest to top the 95.5 rushing yard total against the Falcons. With Mike Davis doubtful to suit up due to still learning the offense, Christian McCaffrey will remain an unquestioned workhorse this week and is an excellent bet to surpass the posted total.
Julio Jones is set to explode this weekend against the Carolina Panthers. He is averaging 5.9 receptions for 87.9 receiving yards per game and is a very strong bet to surpass both of these totals this weekend. At 15.78 receptions per game, the Carolina Panthers have allowed the most receptions per contest to the wide receiver position. Including twice to Chris Godwin, the Carolina Panthers have allowed eight different receivers to eclipse 6.5 receptions, for a total of nine different instances on the season.
At first glance, without any context, this prop screams under. Julio Jones has posted more than 6.5 receptions on just three different occasions this season. He hit six receptions in two other contests. When you combine the Panthers surrendering the most receptions per game to the position with the fact that the Falcons leader in receptions has been ruled out for the next month, this total starts to show its appeal. Hooper has averaged 6.2 receptions per game on the season. He saw 7.4 targets per contest. With guys named Luke Stocker and Jaeden Graham being his backups, we can be sure that the majority of the targets, receptions, and yardage will be sent Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley’s way.
Cementing the over as the play for this weekend’s Monkey Knife Fight contest are the injuries to the Carolina Panthers secondary. Top corner James Bradberry is banged up and dealing with a groin injury that caused him to miss Week 10. While he is expected to play, he missed practice entirely on Wednesday and will be going up against arguably the most talented wide receiver in the entire NFL. Donte Jackson is dealing with some issues of his own with a hip injury, and while he returned to a limited practice on Friday, and is listed as questionable, his status will be decided prior to game time. Number three corner Ross Cockrell has been ruled out with a quad injury.
With a perfect blend of variables suggesting that Jones is line for double-digit targets, a one reception boost over his season average in receptions per game does not seem too far fetched. Let’s summarize. Austin Hooper is out and his absence opens up 7.4 targets per game. The Carolina Panthers allow the most receptions per game to the wide receiver position. The Panthers secondary will be without one starter and could be without a second. The corner that will line up against Julio is making his return to the Panthers lineup after dealing with a groin injury. Punch in the over in a contest that Julio could reach the double-digit reception mark.
There were some other over/under player prop combinations that caught our eye for this weekend. While they will not be locked in like our Monkey Knife Fight play of the week above, they are totals that are worth keeping a lookout for, especially if you can find the same combinations.