Sunday Fantasy Football Fallout: Week 11 (2019)
We got to see a whole lot of blowouts this Sunday — the Falcons, Jets, Saints, Bills, Colts, and Ravens all beat up on their respective opponents. The Sunday slate of games offer us some key pieces of information as the fantasy playoffs approach, and I’ll be walking you through them. But before we get into it, did you see Quenton Nelson’s touchdown celebration? His score got overturned, but it was probably the highlight of my Sunday:
• Keg Stand Celebration
• o̸v̸e̸r̸t̸u̸r̸n̸e̸d̸ I don’t care
All time moment for the Notre Dame grad
— Barstool Irish (@BarstoolIrish) November 17, 2019
Alright, let’s get started.
Marlon Mack (RB – IND) will miss time with a hand injury.
Story: The Colts’ starting rusher left Sunday’s game early after he fractured his hand. The Colts will have to play the Texans on Thursday without him, and Mack might miss more time after that. Keep an eye on whether or not Mack’s injury requires surgery — if it doesn’t, he could be back after the Texans’ game. If it does, his absence could linger into the fantasy playoffs.
Fallout: Mack’s injury vaults Nyheim Hines and Jonathan Williams into low-end RB2 territory. Hines has some floor from his involvement in the passing game, and he isn’t a terrible rusher — he ran three times for 11 yards and a score in Sunday’s game. Meanwhile, Williams exploded with Mack sidelined, earning 116 yards on 13 attempts. He even added 31 yards on just one reception. Both of them are smart waiver wire adds heading into the Thursday game against Houston, and they could carry some value afterward should Mack’s absence drag out.
Phillip Lindsay (RB – DEN) is now the Broncos’ lead back. He might win you a championship.
Story: Before their near-win against the Vikings, the Broncos announced that Phillip Lindsay would see a larger share of the carries moving forward. Before Week 11, Lindsay had 118 carries to Royce Freeman’s 93. This week, Lindsay got 16 carries to Freeman’s eight. Lindsay turned his larger carry count into 67 yards (4.2 YPC), while Freeman only earned 31 (3.9 YPC).
Fallout: Assuming the Broncos stick with this formula moving forward, Lindsay should be a high-end RB2. Because Brandon Allen has looked pretty good so far, and because Vic Fangio’s defense has improved immensely, I expect that they’ll remain close enough in games for Lindsay to get consistent work. The Broncos have some very appealing matchups coming up, including four games against bottom-10 running back defenses. That includes games against the Chiefs and Lions, the two worst defenses against running backs, and both of those matchups come during the fantasy playoffs. I’m calling it now, Lindsay could be a league-winner. The soft schedule means that Freeman should retain some value, too, and he’d be a high-end RB2 if Lindsay went down.
Bo Scarbrough (RB – DET) was effective as the Lions’ lead back.
Story: Scarbrough, who the Lions promoted from their practice squad earlier this week, led Detroit in rushing this week. The Alabama product got 14 attempts, and he turned them into 55 yards and a touchdown.
Fallout: Scarbrough’s success comes at the expense of Ty Johnson. Johnson only got three touches this week, and he could only get six yards on them. J.D. McKissic remained involved in the offense even with Scarbrough around, however, as the receiving specialist caught three passes for 40 yards. He also added 13 yards on three carries. I’d expect Scarbrough to control the Detroit backfield for at least another week, which gives him RB3/flex appeal next week in Washington. Because the ‘Skins surrender the seventh-most Half PPR points per game to running backs, Scarbrough is one of this week’s top waiver targets.
Brian Hill (RB – ATL) was ineffective as the Falcons’ lead back.
Story: Hill got a chance to start with Devonta Freeman out with an injury, but he failed to make the most of it against the Panthers. He averaged a pathetic two yards per carry on 15 attempts. Yikes. He almost saved his fantasy day with a late-game touchdown, but it got called back after a holding penalty. Hill wasn’t much involved in the passing game, either, as he only caught one pass for eight yards.
Fallout: The top waiver wire add from last week couldn’t create the RB2 numbers that industry experts expected him to produce. Although the Falcons should stick with Hill until Freeman comes back, he’s got some competition from Kenjon Barner and Qadree Ollison. Barner only got two carries for 15 yards, but he also scored on a punt return. Ollison saw four carries, earning 11 yards and a score. Even worse, the Falcons have the Buccaneers’ strong rushing defense next week. If it sounds like Freeman should be back for Week 13, you can safely put Hill back on waivers.
Kyle Allen (QB – CAR) imploded against the Falcons.
Story: Allen was a popular streaming target against the Falcons’ previously inept passing defense. This week, the Falcons got Desmond Trufant back, and Atlanta picked off Allen four times. Although the sophomore quarterback posted a season-high in yardage with 325, his four picks and no touchdowns nerfed his fantasy value.
Fallout: Let’s compare two quarterbacks through four games:
Surprise! They’re both Kyle Allen. Quarterback “A” is Kyle Allen before his Week 7 bye, while Quarterback “B” is him since then. Allen’s declining production should drop him out of the streaming conversation, and he doesn’t have many attractive matchups upcoming. He’s got the Saints, ‘Skins, Falcons again, Seahawks, and Colts to round out his fantasy season (if your league plays in Week 17, you made a mistake). Allen should be valued as nothing more than a low-end QB2 moving forward. The other Allen, Brandon Allen, might even be a better pick.
Derrius Guice (RB – WAS) returned from another injury, and he looked good!
Story: Injuries have limited Guice’s career so far. But now he’s back in the lineup, and he looked good alongside Adrian Peterson this week against the Jets. Guice logged 24 yards on seven attempts, while Peterson got 25 on nine carries. Most of Guice’s production came on a garbage-time pass from Dwayne Haskins that he took for 45 yards and a touchdown.
Fallout: Although it’s only been one game, Washington’s backfield split seems like it’ll be close to even. Head coach Bill Callahan may love to run the ball, but he couldn’t run that much after the Jets broke off to an impressive first-half lead. Fortunately for Guice, the Washington backfield takes on the Lions, Panthers, and Packers next — three of the worst defenses against running backs. If Guice is on waivers, he’s worth an add. He’ll have some RB3/flex appeal along with Adrian Peterson through the next three games.
Nick Foles (QB – JAC) came back from his clavicle injury.
Story: The Jaguars struggled in Foles’ first start since Week 1. They lost to the Colts 33-13 in Indianapolis, and Foles threw 296 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception in the loss. He completed a solid 70.4% of his passes.
Fallout: Foles didn’t separate himself much from Gardner Minshew, but he also didn’t play poorly. I think Foles should be a matchup-dependent QB2/Superflex play, and his soft schedule as the fantasy playoffs approach boosts his value. He’s got the Titans, Buccaneers, Chargers, Raiders, Falcons, and Colts to wrap up the year. D.J. Chark solidified his WR1 status despite the quarterback change, as the receiver drew 15 targets from Foles. He caught eight of those passes for 104 yards and two touchdowns. Chris Conley, not Dede Westbrook, earned the second-most targets from Foles. Even with Foles back in the lineup, neither receiver carries much more than WR4/5 value.
O.J. Howard (TE – TB) disappeared again.
Story: Howard laid his second fantasy goose egg of the season. The tight end disappeared after he allowed a pass from Jameis Winston to slide out of his hands and into the arms of a waiting defender. Howard’s season has been incredibly disappointing, as he’s totaled just 17 receptions, 223 yards, and one touchdown through Week 11.
Fallout: Howard might not crack the weekly top-10 tight ends again this season. As he faded against the Saints, Cameron Brate emerged — Tampa’s No. 2 tight end saw a team-high 14 targets, which he turned into 10 receptions for 73 yards. I don’t know if Howard’s season has gotten bad enough for Bruce Arians to bench the Alabama product, but he’s near-droppable at this point. Keep an eye on what the talkative Arians tells the press as your waiver deadline approaches. If he expresses some frustration with Howard, Brate might be worth a speculative add.
Kalen Ballage (RB – MIA) averaged one yard per carry.
Story: There’s not a whole lot to say here. Ballage is bad. The Dolphins don’t trust anyone else to run the ball, and they don’t even trust Ballage that much. He got only nine attempts as the Dolphins opted to pass with Ryan Fitzpatrick. Ballage got involved in the passing game, but he could only turn his five receptions into eight yards.
Fallout: Although Ballage salvaged his fantasy day with a touchdown, that shouldn’t mean you should start him again. Ballage is averaging 1.9 yards per carry on the season, so this wasn’t an outlier. The running back does not even have RB2 value through volume because he is far too inefficient with whatever touches he gets. You can safely drop Ballage, especially since Mark Walton should return to the Miami offense in Week 14.
David Johnson (RB – ARI) did not touch the ball against San Francisco.
Story: The fantasy first-rounder has faded down the stretch. Kenyan Drake has usurped his starting role, as the ex-Dolphin earned 16 carries for 67 yards. He also added six receptions for 13 yards. This development comes after head coach Kliff Kingsbury promised to use a “by-committee” approach. Other than Drake, only Kyler Murray and Christian Kirk earned carries.
Fallout: Johnson owners, don’t panic. I suspect that Kingsbury wanted to rest Johnson heading into the Cardinals’ Week 12 bye. Once Arizona returns, look for Drake, Johnson, and Chase Edmonds to split touches in Kingsbury’s backfield. I’m not sure how much fantasy value they’ll have, but they should each be in the RB3/flex conversation.
Joe Mixon (RB – CIN) is an RB1 with Ryan Finley (QB – CIN) under center.
Story: On 15 carries, Mixon earned 86 yards and a score. He got 30 attempts last week, so the Bengals’ starter has now logged 45 rushes for 200 yards since Zac Taylor named Ryan Finley the starter.
Fallout: His drafters may have already sold him, but Mixon is finally returning the second-round draft capital that many invested in him. Although the Bengals’ offensive line hasn’t played well, it seems like Zac Taylor wants to run the ball more now that his rookie is under center. Mixon should re-enter the low-end RB1 conversation each week. The Bengals have some mediocre matchups until a Week 16 visit to Miami, but Mixon has already gashed strong defenses like Baltimore this season.
Devin Singletary (RB – BUF) fumbled twice.
Story: The electric rookie continues to impress on the ground, but losing the ball twice in one game is a big red flag. While he hadn’t yet fumbled once this season, he also just recently started to see lead back duties. Fortunately for Singletary, the Bills didn’t lose either fumble and went on to win the game.
Fallout: While I wouldn’t recommend that you bench Singletary going into next week, the Bills can put Frank Gore back into the game if they start to lose trust in their rookie. If fumbles begin to become a problem for Singletary, I wouldn’t be surprised if Sean McDermott starts to hold him back as the Bills try to solidify their spot in the playoffs.
Touchdown Celebration of the Week
Zeke whipped out the “Dak Dance” to celebrate the TD 🕺😂
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) November 17, 2019