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Takeaways from Week 10 Game Film (Fantasy Football)

by Bobby Sylvester | @bobbyfantasypro | Featured Writer
Nov 11, 2019

Don’t be shocked if David Johnson is shut down for the season

Chances are that you saw Lamar Jackson‘s spectacular touchdown run or Kyle Rudolph‘s one-handed touchdown grab, but my goal today is to tell you about some tidbits you may have missed from a fantasy perspective. I went back through and watched every play of every game. I saw the Thursday night game and three Sunday games live then used NFL Game Pass to see the other 8 contests this morning. Let’s do this!

You can watch condensed games too with a free trial from NFL Game Pass>>

Here is everything you need to know about the top waiver pick up of the week
Everyone has been asking what to make of Brian Hill since Devonta Freeman suffered a foot sprain and Ito Smith is already on the injured reserve. As always with running backs, the situation is much more indicative of future performance than a player’s talent and Atlanta doesn’t have an especially impressive running game, nor the game scripts to accompany it. With that said, Hill is a more explosive athlete than the 2019 version of Freeman. Hill looked terrific in the preseason, setting up his blockers and reading holes well. We saw much of the same this weekend against one of the best run defenses in football. Hill doesn’t have elite size, speed or agility, but he blows through arm tackles and accelerates well into a hole. Perhaps most important, his body sustained the big workload with ease as he didn’t seem to slow down one bit as the game went on, even with 20+ touches to his name. If Freeman is out for the year, this is a legitimate weekly RB2 moving forward.

You’ll want to buy Kenyan Drake everywhere
When you think of Greg Olsen this year or Gronk last season, what comes to mind? A guy with too many injuries in his past who now runs like a grandpa because his body just isn’t the same anymore. While neither of them were the same, they both have made due because their position has more to being making a play on the ball rather than getting to the right place at the right time. Unfortunately for David Johnson, every part of his job has to do with using that body to get from point A to point B. As sad as it is, a running back’s lifespan in the NFL is a handful of years if they are lucky, and for many others, it is two or even just one good year. Think about Larry Johnson, Willie Parker, Rashad Mendenhall and Eddie Lacy. One year you go for 1,500 yards and are a first-round fantasy pick then two years later no one even remembers you. After watching David Johnson this weekend, I feel like we are much closer to the 2007 Larry Johnson than the 450 touch Johnson of 2006. Don’t be surprised if the Cardinals come to grips with it and shut DJ down for the season in hope that they can get anything out of him next year. We already saw what Drake can be if they do decide to go this route.

And the player you’ll want to sell may surprise you
I eluded to this two weeks ago, but Mark Andrews‘ role in the offense is continually diminishing and while he is good, he isn’t great enough to perform in such a limited role. When you look at his game log, you’ll see three big weeks (MIA, ARI, CIN). Those teams get shredded by tight ends, and the other six teams who are competent against the position have allowed Andrews to go for just 22 receptions, 250 yards and 1 touchdown. To put that into perspective, that comes to the same fantasy points per game as James O’Shaughnessy has this year. I’m not kidding. The Bengals linebackers were horrendous in coverage. For example, on one play, the Ravens sent Hayden Hurst in motion which changed the assignments for Cincy. Andrews got out of a three-point stand, took his time getting up to speed and still blew by the linebacker who seemed to realize all too late that guarding Andrews was his job. Jackson threw an easy seam pass to the wide-open Andrews for the 20-yard touchdown. That garbage won’t happen against the Texans, Rams, 49ers, Bills or Jets the next five weeks, which just so happen to be the five toughest matchups he will have all season.

Kareem Hunt‘s role isn’t what anyone expected
We had no idea what was coming with Nick Chubb embedded in the Browns’ offense as a workhorse, but not that we’ve seen it, Freddie Kitchen’s masterplan makes all the sense in the world. Chubb saw 20 carries for the fourth consecutive game and Hunt was still given 53% of the snaps. That’s because 15 of them came as a wide receiver, either outside or in the slot. They designed screen passes, isolated the field for him with trips on the opposite side and looked to his quick feet to create separation on third down slants. This is a team that is going to figure out ways to get their fresh new playmaker the ball in his hands with a chance to produce, much like the 2006 Saints who threw the ball to Reggie Bush 121 times while giving him 9 to 10 carries per game. Hunt is the same type of player with game-breaker speed and natural pass-catching abilities. I’ll be ranking him as a low-end RB most every week from here on out.

Other notes

  • Demaryius Thomas is still a top 30 wide receiver in the NFL if he had a polished quarterback
  • The Steelers might have a better defense than the now Kwon Alexander-less 49ers
  • LeSean McCoy was benched for fumbling then Damien Williams lost a fumble this week…
  • Likewise, Ronald Jones came off the field (and missed a TD) for Peyton Barber after Jones lost a fumble
  • Besides Aaron Donald, Jamal Adams may be the best defensive player in football
  • Baker Mayfield was finally chucking the ball downfield to Odell Beckham
  • Don’t be fooled by the low volume, Mitch Trubisky may have finally turned the corner. He was quite impressive
  • The Chiefs run defense is so bad that I’m legitimately concerned they might miss the playoffs
  • The idea that Latavius Murray was going to have a bigger role when Alvin Kamara returned is now dead (just 25% snap count)
  • Dak Prescott is now the type of QB who can lead a mediocre team to the Super Bowl (Dallas is better than mediocre)
  • Hunter Renfrow is quickly becoming that Tyler Boyd type receiver who finds a seam when his QB is under pressure
  • I repeat again, Devin Singletary has the best vision in the NFL
  • If the Panthers address the quarterback position this off-season, D.J. Moore might just become a WR1
  • Don’t be surprised if Patrick Laird becomes a thing in the fantasy playoffs this year
  • Keep Colts’ wideout, Marcus Johnson, on your radar for deeper leagues
  • *2020 Draft special* Donovan Peoples-Jones is a severely underrated receiver. Has legitimate first-round talent

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Bobby Sylvester is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Bobby, check out his archive and follow him @BobbyFantasyPro.

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6Derrick Henry (TEN)RB
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17George Kittle (SF)TE
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19Josh Jacobs (LV)RB
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22Lamar Jackson (BAL)QB
23Amari Cooper (DAL)WR
24Odell Beckham Jr. (CLE)WR
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27Mark Andrews (BAL)TE
28Todd Gurley (ATL)RB
29Allen Robinson (CHI)WR
30Miles Sanders (PHI)RB
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2Mike Trout (LAA)CF
3Christian Yelich (MIL)LF,RF
4Cody Bellinger (LAD)1B,CF
5Mookie Betts (LAD)CF,RF
6Trevor Story (COL)SS
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13Max Scherzer (WSH)SP
14Freddie Freeman (ATL)1B
15Jose Ramirez (CLE)3B
16Alex Bregman (HOU)3B,SS
17J.D. Martinez (BOS)LF,RF
18Walker Buehler (LAD)SP
19Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD)SS
20Anthony Rendon (LAA)3B
21Rafael Devers (BOS)3B
22Bryce Harper (PHI)RF
23Justin Verlander (HOU)SP
24Starling Marte (ARI)CF
25Jack Flaherty (STL)SP
26Javier Baez (CHC)SS
27Stephen Strasburg (WSH)SP
28Xander Bogaerts (BOS)SS
29Shane Bieber (CLE)SP
30Yordan Alvarez (HOU)LF,DH
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3Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL)SF,PF
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5Kevin Durant (BKN)SF,PF
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16Jimmy Butler (MIA)SG,SF
17Kemba Walker (BOS)PG
18Ben Simmons (PHI)PG,SF
19Kyrie Irving (BKN)PG,SG
20Jrue Holiday (NOR)PG,SG
21Rudy Gobert (UTH)C
22Andre Drummond (CLE)PF,C
23John Wall (WAS)PG
24Kyle Lowry (TOR)PG
25Donovan Mitchell (UTH)PG,SG
26Khris Middleton (MIL)SG,SF
27Bradley Beal (WAS)SG
28Kevin Love (CLE)PF,C
29Draymond Green (GSW)PF,C
30LaMarcus Aldridge (SAS)PF,C
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