Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions

Total: 49.0
Line: DAL by 4.5

QBs
Dak Prescott: The loss to the Vikings surely wasn’t any fault of him, as he tallied three passing touchdowns for the second straight week. He’s now tallied multiple touchdowns in 7-of-9 games this year and sits as the No. 4 quarterback in fantasy football. The Lions have been struggling on defense this year, allowing 8-of-9 teams to score at least 20 points, including four of the last six teams to score 26-plus points. Despite not playing a top-five fantasy quarterback in the last month, they’ve allowed 13 passing touchdowns over their last four games, including three to Mitch Trubisky last week. The only teams that have allowed more fantasy points to quarterbacks over that span have been the Raiders, Cardinals, Bucs, and Bengals. They’ve allowed 8.50 yards per attempt during that time, so it’s not volume, either. The fact that their run-defense is still the one of the worst in the league doesn’t allow them to shift focus, either. They haven’t been getting consistent pressure to the quarterback and because of that, they’ve generated a sack on just 5.4 percent of dropbacks. In the two games Prescott finished with less than two touchdowns were games against the Saints and Jets, and he was pressured at least 40 percent of the time in those games. The Lions have generated more than 37.9 percent of pressure just once all season. He’s known as someone who has stinkers from time-to-time, but there’s not much of a reason to predict one here. He’s a solid QB1 play against the Lions, though he’d be even more appealing if Stafford plays (he’s not). The only concern for him in cash games is the fact that the Cowboys could try to use this contest to get the run-game going, as it’s a great matchup for that.

Matthew Stafford/Jeff Driskel: We’re not likely to learn about Stafford’s status until game day, so we’ll approach this for each of them. They’ve said Stafford could miss 1-3 weeks, so stay tuned to updates. The matchup against the Cowboys may have looked decent for Kirk Cousins last week, but it hasn’t been for most quarterbacks. In fact, no quarterbacks have been able to hit the 20-point threshold against them this year, which highlights a limited ceiling. There have also been four quarterbacks, including Aaron Rodgers and Carson Wentz, who have finished outside the top-20 quarterbacks. The good news is that each of these teams are in the top-seven for total plays per game, as both average over 128 plays. That can amount to a solid fantasy floor, but 6.74 yards per attempt would require a lot of volume to amount to much, and it’s not as if the Cowboys have allowed a lot of touchdowns. They’ve allowed just nine passing scores through nine games, which ranks as the fifth-fewest in football. Even if Stafford is able to suit up for this game, he’d be a high-end QB2 in this matchup. Him playing would benefit everyone, including the Cowboys fantasy players, as the game would have much more scoring potential. Driskel wouldn’t be a recommended streaming option, as the Cowboys would likely take the air out of the ball. *Update* Stafford has been ruled out for this game. 

RBs
Ezekiel Elliott: He’s now totaled at least 21 touches in seven of the last eight games, but he doesn’t have a top-three finish and has finished outside the top-12 running backs in five of those games. Clearly, something isn’t clicking for Elliott, though a matchup with the Lions may fix that. They’ve allowed their opponents a massive 67.6 plays per game (2nd-highest mark in the league), along with a massive 0.98 fantasy points per opportunity (carries and targets), which ranks as the second-highest mark behind only the Panthers. On top of that, two of their defensive tackles suffered injuries against the Bears and may be out/limited in this game. This is one of those occasions where you get the worlds collide. You have Elliott coming off a bad game (something he always bounces back from), plenty of volume to go around, a lackluster opponent who may have a backup quarterback, and a run defense that’s really struggled to stop anyone. If there were a game that Elliott could explode and get that top-three performance, this should be it. Start him as an elite RB1 and expect results. He should be in cash-game as well as tournament lineups.

J.D. McKissic: As of now, it seems like McKissic should have the starting role for the Lions this week. Things would obviously change if Ty Johnson gets cleared, though we’ll prepare to be without him. McKissic saw 10 carries last week. That was the first time in his career he’s totaled more than seven carries in an NFL game. He’s been a passing-down back throughout his short career, so this could be interesting. The Cowboys are not a great matchup for running backs, though. They’ve allowed just three running backs to reach 70 yards on the ground this year, but the good news for McKissic is that they’ve allowed six different running backs to rack-up four-plus receptions, including three running backs with at least six receptions. Ever since Week 4, the Lions have averaged just 72.4 rushing yards per game, which included Kerryon Johnson for a few weeks. They’ve rushed for just one touchdown in those five games, and that was back in Week 6. They have targeted their running backs 8.6 times per game, which is essentially what you’re hoping for with McKissic, who’s nothing more than a low-ceiling RB3. *Update* Ty Johnson got in a full practice on Friday, though he’s no sure thing to return against the Cowboys. All it does is cloudy the path to touches for McKissic. If Johnson is able to go, he’s just a high-end RB4 in a bad matchup who’ll lose a lot of the passing-down work to McKissic. Meanwhile, McKissic should be considered a middling RB4 with a decent floor in PPR formats. 

WRs
Amari Cooper: The MRI he had on his knee apparently meant nothing to him, as he posted a ridiculous 11 catches for 147 yards and a touchdown against the Vikings last week. He saw a season-high 14 targets, which is promising, as he’d been lacking in the target department through eight games. The Lions are going to have Darius Slay shadow him in coverage, one of the better shadow cornerbacks in the game who’s allowed just a 57.1 percent catch-rate in his coverage this year with just one touchdown on 28 targets. The Cowboys move Cooper around quite a bit, so it’ll be impossible for Slay to stay on him 100 percent of the time. It’s the reason we saw Allen Robinson able to tally six catches for 86 yards against them last week. Some will look back and say that Stefon Diggs hit them up for 7/142/0 but Slay left that game after playing just 18 snaps, opening the door for him to produce. Cooper will remain in lineups as a low-end WR1/high-end WR2 because he’s still a top route-runner in the game, but it’s not a week to play him in cash lineups.

Michael Gallup: He’s getting back into the must-start territory, as he’s now seen six-plus targets in 6-of-7 games. He’s going to benefit form Cooper pulling the No. 1 cornerback in shadow coverage, and this is one of those weeks, as Cooper will get Darius Slay, which will leave Gallup with Rashaan Melvin. He’s someone who’s been struggling as of late, allowing 19-of-25 passing for 299 yards and three touchdowns since Week 6, which amounts to a 154.8 QB Rating. The Lions have allowed 13 passing touchdowns over the last four games, with wide receivers accounting for six of them. Knowing Slay has allowed just one touchdown on the season, Cooper may have a hard time hitting pay dirt. Week 7 was the only time Gallup finished outside of the top-36 wide receivers, so he should be glued into lineups as a stable WR3, at worst. With the matchups, you can say he’s in the low-end WR2 conversation this week.

Randall Cobb: Just when we thought we could write Cobb off; he’s seen eight targets in each of the last two games. His 22.6 PPR points in Week 10 gave him his first top-24 finish on the season, so it’s not as if you’ve been missing much. In fact, that was the first time he’d finished better than WR40 since back in Week 1. The Lions have Justin Coleman defending the slot, and after a hot start, he’s struggled over the last five games. In that time, he’s allowed 29-of-38 passing for 395 yards and three touchdowns. He’s turned into a matchup to target in potential shootouts, though this may not have the feeling of a shootout with Stafford potentially out. The Lions have allowed 11 receivers to finish inside the top-24 against them this year, and six of those receivers were slot-heavy, like Cobb. Knowing he’s seen eight targets in each of the last two games, he’s on the WR4 radar as someone who should possess a high floor, though his history with the team (eight games) suggests he doesn’t have a very high ceiling.

Kenny Golladay: His week was saved by a late touchdown in the fourth quarter, but the first game with Driskel under center wasn’t ideal. The good news is that he was targeted nine times, though Driskel attempted a massive 46 passes. Without his late 47-yard touchdown grab, he would’ve finished with two catches for 10 yards. That’s obviously worrisome going into a matchup with the Cowboys that have been a brutal matchup for wide receivers dating back to the start of last year. There have been just four receivers who’ve totaled more than 10.8 PPR points against them this year and they’re coming off a game where they held Stefon Diggs to just three catches for 49 yards. The only other team that’s allowed less than seven performances of 10.8 or more PPR points are the Patriots, who’ve allowed five such performances. And even then, there’s been just one receiver to hit the 20-point mark, which is tied for the league-low. Golladay does get elite volume, so he remains in lineups as a low-end WR2 if Stafford plays, but he’s far from a sure thing to produce like a WR2 this week. If Stafford remains out, Golladay should be considered a high-end WR3.

Marvin Jones: He was the most efficient with his targets from Driskel, as he finished with the third-most targets (6) among receivers but did finish with the most receptions (5) and yards (77). The issue with the low volume is that the Cowboys are one of the teams who allow the least efficiency to receivers, as their 1.47 PPR points per target ranks as the third-lowest mark in the league. We also must keep in mind that Jones saw six targets in a game that Driskel threw the ball 46 times, which amounts to a measly 13 percent target share. Teams have averaged just over 35 pass attempts per game against the Cowboys, with just 17.2 of those targets going to wide receivers. Touchdowns have been hard to come by as well, as receivers have seen a massive 32 red zone targets against the Cowboys but netted just four touchdowns. If Driskel plays, Jones should be considered a middling WR4. If Stafford can suit up, Jones would move into the low-end WR3 range. Whichever way you slice it, this is a tough matchup for the Lions No. 2 receiver.

Danny Amendola: While the production has been a bit up-and-down, Amendola has now seen at least eight targets in three of the last four games. The five-target game in-between them isn’t bad, either. The issue is that there’s been just one slot-heavy receiver who’s totaled more than 10.2 PPR points against the Cowboys, and that was Jamison Crowder in the game their defense failed to show up in where he totaled six catches for 98 yards on nine targets. Because of that, we can’t cross him off completely, but knowing the Cowboys shouldn’t have much issue controlling the clock against the weak Lions defense, that’s not going to allow for a whole lot of pass attempts. Amendola is someone to consider if you’re looking for a semi-decent WR4/5 floor, though there are warning signs in this matchup.

TEs
Jason Witten: We knew last week was a brutal matchup for him, but is it time to get back aboard the Witten Express? He’s a tight end who’s seen at least four targets in every game, and one who’d totaled at least three receptions in every game prior to Week 10. The Lions have been a matchup to feel free streaming tight ends against, as they’ve allowed a 70 percent completion-rate, 9.25 yards per target (3rd-highest mark in the NFL), and 2.05 fantasy points per target (4th-highest). If we were to consider Witten average, which he certainly is, and give him his usual four-plus targets, we’d have a eight-plus PPR floor in this matchup, which is great when we have four teams on bye and not a whole lot of streaming options. He should be considered a high-end TE2 who may not have a high ceiling, but one who gives a rock-solid floor.

T.J. Hockenson: Despite missing Stafford last week, Hockenson posted 47 yards, which was his third-highest total on the season. If there’s someone who doesn’t lose a lot of value with Stafford out, it’s him. The Cowboys have been a great matchup for tight ends, as they’ve allowed the third-most points per game to the position. They’ve had plenty of volume, as teams have targeted their tight ends an average of 8.9 times per game. Hockenson is the only one who sees meaningful targets for the Lions, as he’s totaled 63 percent of the targets among tight ends. It also doesn’t hurt that Hockenson has seen five-plus targets in four of the last give games. It’s only a matter of time before those targets amount to yards. Given the 72.5 percent completion-rate the Cowboys are allowing to tight ends, it just might be this week. Consider him a low-end TE1 who’s trending up.

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens

Total: 50.0
Line: BAL by 4.0

QBs
Deshaun Watson: His eye will have had plenty of time to heal up over the past few weeks, so there’s no more concern about his vision. He’s finished as a top-five quarterback in 5-of-9 games this year and he’s never gone two games in a row where he’s finished outside the top-five quarterback. Will that streak continue in Week 11? It seems somewhat unlikely considering the Ravens defense is now firing on all cylinders and have everyone healthy. Since acquiring Marcus Peters, they’ve allowed Russell Wilson just 14.3 fantasy points, Tom Brady 13.4 fantasy points, and Ryan Finley (I know) 10.9 fantasy points. In fact, the only time they allowed a quarterback to throw more than one touchdown was way back in Week 3, and that was to Patrick Mahomes. Earlier in the year, they were allowing massive yardage through the air, though a lot of that had to do with the injuries to the cornerback/safety unit. Knowing they made it through a lot of that while allowing just one top-12 performance, it’s safe to say they’re a brutal matchup for quarterbacks, including Watson. Now, Watson offers an additional element of rushing that most the quarterbacks they’ve played don’t, but seeing guys like Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson struggle against them, it doesn’t help. Let’s be honest… you’re playing Watson if you own him, but it’s a week to dial back expectations. The 50-point total on this game is much higher than you’d expect for a team that’s allowed 23 or less points in 7-of-9 games, including each of the last five games. Watson is okay as a tournament play because he’ll have lesser ownership than normal, but he’s off the cash-game radar.

Lamar Jackson: He continues to rack up the fantasy points and has now finished as a top-six quarterback in 7-of-9 games, including each of the last four games. He’s breaking fantasy football this year with his rushing, as he’s now totaled at least 61 yards on the ground in seven of the last eight games, including each of the last six games. He now has an unbelievable 702 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns on the season. That amounts to 108.0 fantasy points on the ground. There are just seven running backs who have more fantasy points on the ground. Mark Ingram is not one of them. Jackson has done work through the air in the games against bottom feeders, as he’s feasted on matchups against the bottom-six teams against quarterbacks. Some have said I’m too harsh on Jackson as a passer, but this explains my feelings.

Fortunately, the Texans rank as the eighth-worst team in the league against the pass and will only get worse after losing J.J. Watt. This is one of those matchups where Jackson can smash in both areas, as the Texans have allowed a solid 65.7 percent completion-rate, 7.52 yards per attempt, and a 5.1 percent touchdown-rate, which are all above the league average. Some of the passing production they’ve allowed is volume-based, as quarterbacks have averaged 39.2 pass attempts per game, but when you’ve allowed 7-of-9 quarterbacks to post 18-plus fantasy points, why not chuck the ball around? Jackson is an elite QB1 and one you can use in cash games.

RBs
Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson: The last time we saw this duo on the field, the timeshare was a lot closer than it’d been the previous seven games. From Week 2 through Week 8, we watched Hyde tally 125 touches while Johnson totaled just 51 touches, a near 2.5 to 1 ratio. The gap was Hyde 19, Johnson 12 while in London, and it won’t help Hyde’s cause that he fumbled for the fourth time this year towards the end of that game. The truth is that Hyde needs to get it done on the ground, as he’s tallied just six receptions the entire season and 66 percent of them came in one game. The Ravens are not a team to target on the ground. Outside of one game where they were missing defensive tackle Brandon Williams, they’ve allowed just 528 yards (66.0 per game) on 146 carries (3.62 yards per carry) and five rushing touchdowns over eight games. Oddly, there’s been just four running backs who’ve reached double-digit carries against them and just two running backs who’ve topped 65 yards on the ground. Hyde is a low-upside RB3 in this matchup and one to avoid in DFS. Johnson offers some appeal in this game as the running back who can contribute in the passing-game. The Ravens haven’t allowed any running back tally more than five catches for 47 yards, so it’s not great for him, either, but knowing how rough the wide receiver matchups are, he’s a high-end RB4-type option who may outscore Hyde this weekend.

Mark Ingram: He should be extremely fresh after a game where he played just 22-of-46 snaps against the Bengals. He’s now finished with less than 15 carries in 6-of-9 games this year, and has finished with 52 or less rushing yards in 5-of-9 games, but his eight rushing touchdowns have carried him through. Knowing the Ravens are projected for 27.0 points, it’s fair to wonder if this continues against the Texans. They’ve been known to be a stout run defense for quite some time, but will the loss of J.J. Watt change things up? They’ve allowed a mediocre 4.06 yards per carry, which isn’t really worrisome, but the fact that they’ve allowed just two rushing touchdowns on 155 carries is worrisome for a guy who’s capped in his carry totals. The area running backs have done a lot of damage is through the air, as they’ve allowed a league-high 69 receptions, 573 yards, and two touchdowns. That amounts to 138.3 PPR points, or 15.4 per game. By comparison, there are two teams (Patriots, Bucs) who have allowed fewer points per game to running backs overall. Ingram has seen 15 of the measly 27 targets available to Ravens running backs this year, so he’d be the one who should benefit. With the projected high-scoring game, Ingram should be in lineups as an RB2.

WRs
Deandre Hopkins: The absence of Fuller had allowed him to receive at least 11 targets in each of the last four games. It seems like Fuller may be back this week, which could potentially lower his target floor into the 7-8 target range. The Ravens secondary is not a friendly one, as the combination of Marcus Peters, Marlon Humphrey, and Jimmy Smith is one of the best in the league. We did see the Patriots highlight their receivers underneath against them, as both Mohamed Sanu and Julian Edelman each tallied 10 receptions, though they both finished with less than 90 yards. This may actually fit Hopkins’ role on the team, as his average depth of target is just 9.4 yards down the field, while Fuller’s at 13.7 yards, and Stills is at 11.5 yards. His primary matchup will be with Jimmy Smith, who returned from injury just two weeks ago. He’s allowed 5-of-9 passing for 38 yards and a touchdown over the last two weeks, but Hopkins will test him. The last time Hopkins played the Ravens was in Week 12 of 2017 where he went off for 7/125/0. Smith was the one in coverage on five of the targets, where he allowed five catches for 108 yards. Start Hopkins as a solid WR1 even if it is a tough matchup.

Will Fuller: We’ve had to learn the hard way to trust wide receivers coming off a hamstring injury, right? It seems like Fuller may come back after returning to the practice field on Monday, which makes sense, as it’ll be four weeks on Sunday since he injured it. The Ravens have Marcus Peters staying put at LCB which is where Fuller lines up most of the time. He’s someone who can certainly be burned deep, but he’s seemingly fit in well with the Ravens, as he’s asked to play on the one side of the field, as he did in his Pro Bowl years with the Chiefs. He’s allowed 10-of-17 passing for 97 scoreless yards since joining the team. The Ravens haven’t allowed a perimeter-heavy receiver to top 14.1 PPR points all season, so giving Fuller a week to get his legs back under him makes a lot of sense. He’s a boom-or-bust WR4 for this week, but with bye weeks here, he at least provides some ‘boom’ potential. *Update* He took part in practice this week, though it was on a limited basis the whole time. He’s not a lock to play, so make sure you have alternate options. 

Kenny Stills: Despite the injury to Fuller and the absence of Keke Coutee, Stills has still yet to see more than six targets in a game and has topped five targets just once. He’s also totaled 52 yards or less in 5-of-7 games, leaving him as an unappealing option with Fuller potentially returning to the lineup. That wouldn’t remove him from the equation all together, but rather kick him into the slot, which would set him up for a date with Marlon Humphrey, who’s been the best cornerback on the Ravens roster. He’s allowed just 28-of-49 passing in his coverage this year, that’s netted 385 yards and two touchdowns, or 7.86 yards per target. The limited volume concerns, combined with the inefficiency of receivers versus the Ravens (1.53 PPR points per target ranks as the seventh-lowest mark), and Stills slots in as a WR4/5-type option.

Marquise Brown: When playing a receiver like Brown, you have to understand the limitations of the offense. Jackson has averaged just 28.3 pass attempts per game, so even if Brown had totaled a 25 percent target share, he’d average a mediocre 7.1 targets per game. He’s now tallied five or less targets in each of the last three games he’s played, which limits the safety of playing him. The good news is that he’s been rather effective with his targets, averaging 9.7 yards per target and a touchdown every 11.8 targets. The Texans just happen to be a matchup to target with wide receivers, as they’ve allowed a massive 41.5 PPR points per game to the position. There’s been plenty of volume, sure, but on a per-target basis, they’ve allowed 1.88 points per target, which ranks as the eighth-highest mark in the league. They have been dealing with plenty of injuries, but even two of their three starting cornerbacks would be considered backups on most teams. The average top-24 receiver performance last year took 14.9 PPR points. That’s a number 11 receivers have hit against the Texans, which is the most in the NFL. Brown is the only logical choice on the Ravens, so get him into lineups as a high-end WR3 this week who comes with plenty of upside. *Update* Brown wound-up missing Thursday’s practice with his ankle injury, but returned on Friday and has been deemed questionable. He should play, but it’s something to monitor Sunday morning. 

Willie Snead: The only receiver outside of Marquise Brown who has more than 17 targets on the Ravens is Snead, though his 27 targets hardly inspire confidence. He’s yet to see more than five targets in a game, though that is a number he’s hit on three occasions. The Texans were forced to use Cornell Armstrong in the slot before their bye, as Bradley Roby continues to be sidelined. He’s played a combined 116 snaps over his two seasons in the league, allowing 12-of-14 passing for 174 yards and two touchdowns. If Roby remains out, Snead is a sneaky WR5 play who could surprise, though is five-target cap suppresses any safety in his projection.

TEs
Darren Fells: There are some fantasy players who are production-based. They’ll look at the fantasy points a player has scored and nothing more. If you do that with Fells, you’ll see he’s tallied 7.1 or more PPR points in five of his last seven games, including four games with 12.9 or more points. When you look a bit closer, you’ll see that he’s totaled three or less targets in 6-of-9 games this year. There’s not a tight end in the league who can sustain production with that little of volume. The Ravens haven’t allowed much tight end production this year (8th fewest points per game) but a lot of that has been due to a lack of volume, as they’ve faced just 49 tight end targets all season. When targeted, they allow a healthy 7.98 yards per target, which is above the league average. The issue is the lack of touchdowns (two of them), which is where Fells makes his mark in fantasy. Knowing it’s a tough matchup where he succeeds most, combined with the fact that Jordan Akins eats into his snap-share, and you have yourself just a middling TE2.

Mark Andrews: There’s someone new every week who gets ahold of me and says, “Did you know Andrews is playing less than 50 percent of the snaps?” Yep, it’s been that way all season. He’s yet to play more than 57 percent of the snaps in a game this year, but when he’s on the field, he gets targeted. There’s been just one game this year where he’s seen less than seven targets. His 66 targets account for a massive 25.9 percent of Jackson’s attempts. The Texans have not been a team to actively target with tight ends, as they’ve allowed just a 60.3 percent completion-rate to them, which ranks as the best in the NFL. They’ve also allowed just 5.81 yards per target, which is the second-lowest mark in the NFL. Add in the fact that they’ve allowed just two touchdowns over 63 targets, and you have yourself a tough matchup. Keep in mind they’ve played against Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, Austin Hooper, Greg Olsen, and Eric Ebron this year, so the competition hasn’t been weak or anything. Andrews is still someone you play every week no matter the matchup. With the Ravens projected for 27.0 points, there’s going to be some touchdowns, and Andrews has been smack-dab in the middle of production when Jackson performs. He makes for a better tournament option than cash option this week.

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers

Total: 51.0
Line: CAR by 5.5

QBs
Matt Ryan: We knew Ryan had been leaned on all season, but now that Devonta Freeman and Ito Smith are out, it’s all but guaranteed he throws the ball a ton. Is that smart against the Panthers? Probably not considering they’re one of just three teams in the league that have more interceptions (11) than they have allowed passing touchdowns (10). There’s a shift coming at some point, though, as the Panthers have allowed a rushing touchdown every 14.1 carries, a number that cannot be sustained. By comparison, no team allowed one more than every 20.7 carries last year. So, maybe Ryan can be the one to start the movement. The issue is that they’re allowing just 6.83 yards per attempt on the year (7th-lowest mark) along with that ultra-low 3.05 percent touchdown-rate. They’ve also brought the pressure all year and delivered, racking up a 9.9 percent sack-rate, which ranks second in the NFL to only the 49ers. Ryan is somewhat used to it being the 12th-most pressured quarterback, though he’s been solid while under pressure in comparison to his peers. This Panthers defense is certainly different than one Ryan played last year and is not one to attack in DFS. Knowing how much the Falcons will lean on him, he’s still in the QB1 conversation, but he’s more towards the bottom of it in this matchup.

Kyle Allen: The wind and snow in Green Bay limited what I thought could be a high-scoring game last week, and it limited Allen to just one touchdown pass, though he did have his first career 300-yard game. Now on to a game with the Falcons, who just shut down the Saints offense. Guys, take it as it was; a bad day at the office for the Saints. We have more than a big enough sample size on the Falcons defense to understand what they bring to the table. Prior to last week, they’d allowed 17 of the last 23 quarterbacks they’d played to finish as the QB13 or better, which included 8.46 yards per attempt and a 7.63 percent touchdown-rate. They’ve generated a sack on just 4.2 percent of dropbacks, which ranks as the second-lowest mark behind only the Bengals. Some will just assume McCaffrey does everything against them, but the fun fact is that the Falcons have allowed just the 11th-fewest points to the running back position. The bottom line with the Falcons defense is that we have a one-game sample of solid play, not enough to bake it into projections, so feel free to trot Allen out there as a low-end QB1/high-end QB2 this week.

RBs
Brian Hill: It’s his chance to shine with the starting job, as both Devonta Freeman and Ito Smith are not going to be on the field. He racked up 21 touches in Week 10, so the Falcons clearly trust him with a big workload, as Kenjon Barner totaled just one touch. The Panthers are the best matchup in the league for running backs through 10 weeks. Sounds crazy, right? They’re allowing a touchdown every 14.1 carries while no other team has allowed one more than every 20.6 carries. They’ve now allowed 14 rushing touchdowns on the year, while allowing just 10 passing touchdowns. That has propelled running backs to average 1.06 PPR points per opportunity (carries and targets), which is easily the highest mark in the league, as the closest team (Lions) have allowed 0.98 points per opportunity. If Hill can get 20-plus touches again, he could be in for a massive week. There have now been seven running backs who’ve posted top-15 RB numbers versus this Panthers team, and another eight running backs who snuck into the top-36 (RB3/flex numbers).

Christian McCaffrey: The Panthers went out and signed Mike Davis off waivers this week, which is somewhat worrisome about McCaffrey’s workload. Do they plan to cut it back? He’s seen a ridiculous 233-of-256 touches available to the backfield, a workload that would amount to 414 touches over a full 16-game season. This has nothing to do with season-long leagues because you’re obviously playing him, but more to do with DFS where his price has risen to astronomical territory. Most would be shocked to know that the Falcons have allowed the 11th fewest fantasy points to the running back position. The 3.92 yards per carry ranks as the ninth-best mark in football. What might be the craziest stat is that they’ve allowed just 41 receptions and 275 yards through the air to running backs. That averages out to just 4.6 receptions and 30.6 yards per game. Since Dan Quinn became the coach in 2015, the Falcons have allowed an average of 6.6 receptions, 51.4 yards, and 0.25 touchdowns per game to running backs, which was the best matchup for pass-catching backs. It should be no surprise to know McCaffrey tallied a ridiculous 26 receptions for 179 yards through the air in the two games they played last year. In the end, David Johnson and Dalvin Cook both hit the 26-point mark against the Falcons, so fade McCaffrey at your own risk. I won’t be one of them.

WRs
Julio Jones: In a world where it seems like no one is dependable, Jones has quietly been one of the most consistent receivers in the league. He’s finished as a top-18 receiver in 5-of-9 games, and top-38 in 8-of-9 games. The Panthers have been keeping James Bradberry at LCB most of the time, but he’s someone who’ll likely move and follow Jones when he’s on the perimeter. It’s been somewhat of a split decision in the games against Bradberry over his career. Here are the game logs:

Since the first meeting where he erupted for 300 yards, it’s been a relatively tough matchup for Jones. Bradberry has been playing lights out this year, allowing just a 54.5 percent catch-rate in his coverage and no touchdowns through nine games. Jones will always be in lineups as a WR1 but lower expectations in this matchup and avoid in cash-game lineups.

Calvin Ridley: The lack of competence from the Saints offense really destroyed any potential with the Falcons offense, and no one felt that more than Ridley. With Mohamed Sanu gone, and Devonta Freeman and Austin Hooper out, we should have a solid floor against the Panthers. With James Bradberry being Julio Jones‘ tag-along for the day, Ridley will see a lot of Donte Jackson. In a similar matchup last year, Ridley tallied 4/64/1 in the first matchup and 3/90/1 in the second one. Jackson has plenty of speed to burn but he lacks the agility to cover Ridley on a consistent basis. He’s been solid in coverage this year, but he’s had more lapses than Bradberry. The Panthers have allowed 12 wide receivers to post top-36 performances against them, including seven top-24 games. Ridley should be considered a WR3 in fantasy leagues who you’re going to have to deal with some ups and downs as the No. 2 option, and with so many options gone, this should be a week where he’ll perform how you’d like him to, especially when you see the 51-point total that’s implied.

Russell Gage: Like everyone else in Atlanta, the lack of pass attempts last week hurt his potential. In the last two games, Gage has seen 14 targets, so he’s still on the map, especially against a Panthers team that’s struggled to defend the slot this year. Of the 12 top-36 performances they’ve allowed, five were to slot-heavy receivers. They have Javien Elliott covering the slot, a cornerback who’s allowed 19-of-22 passing for 184 yards this year. If you look over the course of his four-year career, he’s allowed an 87.5 percent catch-rate, so this is nothing new. Gage could have a WR4/5 performance this week with a semi-decent floor in a plus-matchup.

D.J. Moore: What do you get when you mix a quality wide receiver who’s seeing eight-plus targets every week against the Falcons leaky secondary? It’s now been five straight games Moore has hit that number, while the Falcons have now allowed the most fantasy points per target to wide receivers. Think about how ridiculous the 2.18 PPR points per target they’re allowing is… To an average receiver, eight targets would amount to 17.4 PPR points, which is typically enough to get close to WR1 territory. Moore is far from average and is overdue for some positive touchdown regression. He’s now posted back-to-back 100-yard games and hasn’t finished with less than five catches since back in Week 4. It seems the Falcons may get Desmond Trufant back this week, but he’d been horrendous in coverage this year before being pulled for injury. Even if he did return, it wouldn’t affect Moore too much, as he lines up on Isaiah Oliver‘s side of the field 60 percent of the time. Oliver has allowed a 72.2 percent catch-rate in his coverage and has allowed nearly 10.0 yards per target. Moore has the looks of someone teetering on the WR1 conversation this week.

Curtis Samuel: While I believe Moore is the better receiver of this duo, Samuel has been getting massive opportunity and it’s only a matter of time until he has a massive game. He’s seen at least six targets in every game since Week 2 and has now totaled at least 112 air yards in each of the last four games. What does that mean? Is it really that good? Well, considering there are just 10 receivers who’ve averaged that mark since Week 5, you can say it’s elite. The Falcons are allowing a massive 10.1 yards per target to receivers, which ranks second to only the Bengals. He’s the one who’d be most affected by the return of Desmond Trufant, but even then, Trufant was getting torched before missing time, allowing 12-of-19 passing for 247 yards and five touchdowns in his coverage. If Trufant misses the game, Blidi Wreh-Wilson fills in, and that’s simply good news. Samuel should be in lineups as a low-end WR2/high-end WR3 for this game and has tournament appeal.

TEs
Luke Stocker: With Austin Hooper out for the next few weeks, it appears the Falcons will lean on the veteran Stocker for production. He’s been in the league since 2011, so it’s not his first time being thrust into a lead role. Unfortunately, he’s never seen more than five targets and has topped 37 yards just once. The Panthers show as the fifth-best team in the league against tight ends, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. They’ve allowed 8.75 yards per target to tight ends, which ranks as the fifth-highest mark in the NFL. The lack of targets (4.9 per game) they’ve seen has influenced the numbers more than it should, but are you going to trust the Falcons backup? You shouldn’t. In fact, it shouldn’t surprise you if Jaeden Graham emerges as the top receiving option. Let it play out before trusting anyone here.

Greg Olsen: He looked good last week, as spry as I’ve seen him in some time. He tallied eight catches for 98 yards in that game on a season-high 10 targets. He’s now seen at least six targets in three of the last four games, which is definitely someone you consider starting. The Falcons matchup has been extremely volume-dependent with tight ends, as they’ve allowed five top-10 performances, but three of those tight ends saw double-digit targets. They’ve allowed just 6.97 yards per target, which ranks as the ninth-lowest mark in the league, though they have allowed four touchdowns on 63 targets to the position. Olsen has only scored a touchdown 10 times on his last 261 targets, so we know better than to rely on touchdowns from him. The wide receivers have better matchups here, but he’s still on the low-end TE1 radar.

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Total: 50.5
Line: NO by 5.5

QBs
Drew Brees: It may have been the biggest letdown of the fantasy season when the Saints scored just nine points while at home against the Falcons. We must shake it off as one bad game against a divisional opponent. Fortunately, he plays against the Bucs this week. While they’re another divisional opponent, they’ve actually been worse than the Falcons this year. After allowing Kyler Murray to finish as the No. 4 quarterback in Week 10, they’ve now allowed four different quarterbacks, including Teddy Bridgewater, to finish as a top-four option. That’s not even including the No. 8 performance to Jared Goff and No. 10 performance to Ryan Tannehill. In fact, the only two quarterbacks they held outside of the top-14 this year were Cam Newton and Jimmy Garoppolo way back in the first two weeks of the season. When you have Brees going against a team that’s allowed 311.8 passing yards per game, you play him as a QB1.

Jameis Winston: He threw two interceptions against a team that had two interceptions all year last week. That can’t be good. The good news is that he’s now finished as a top-16 quarterback in each of the last seven games, including five top-10 performances. The matchup against the Saints is one he’s had before, as they played against each other in Week 5 where Winston totaled 204 yards and two touchdowns and finished with 17.5 fantasy points. That was with Marshon Lattimore in the lineup, however. He suffered a hamstring injury last week and will miss some time, which is a great thing for Winston and the Bucs passing game. Without him, they don’t have a cornerback to shadow Evans, and they already struggled to contain Godwin. When you hear someone reference the fact that the Saints haven’t allowed a quarterback to top 7.6 yards per attempt since back in Week 3, that’s true, but losing their best player in the secondary is huge. Another bonus is that we’ve seen Winston use his legs a bit more as of late, as he’s tallied 101 rushing yards over the last three games. The Saints have allowed four rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks this year, so there’s an additional outlet for fantasy points. He should offer top-12 numbers in this matchup, though things are never easy with Winston.

RBs
Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray: We’re not able to take much from the usage in Week 10, but if we did want to say anything, Kamara did receive 12 touches to Murray’s 7 touches. It was a weird game and one where the Saints just didn’t run the ball enough. The matchup against the Bucs isn’t any easier. The only team that’s allowed fewer fantasy points per game to running backs is the Patriots. Seriously, the Bucs have been one of the best run defenses in the game. Of all the production they’ve allowed to the combination of running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, just 18.8 percent has gone to running backs, which is easily the lowest mark in the league, as no other team is lower than 25.2 percent (Vikings). They’ve allowed just 72.4 fantasy points on the ground through nine games, which is the lowest mark in the NFL, so this is not a game to get excited about Murray. He’s nothing more than a mediocre flex-play who you’re hoping for a touchdown with. Even Kamara’s role in the passing game isn’t great, as the 4.57 yards per target they’ve allowed to running backs is the second-best mark in the league. Back in Week 5, we watched Kamara tally 22 touches that netted 104 total yards and an RB17 finish, and that was while at home. Kamara was the type who’s been matchup-proof in the past, so we’re not going to start doubting him now in a game that has a 50.5-point total with a 28-point team implied total. Plug him in as an RB1 and hope he can overcome the tough matchup but avoid him in cash games.

Ronald Jones: I’d really hoped we were done with the guessing games of this backfield, but Jones fumbling in the fourth quarter when the team was down four points should have you concerned. Nobody even touched the ball to knock it out. That happened with six-and-a-half minutes left in the game. Jones didn’t have a touch for the remainder of the game. The part that doesn’t make sense for him to get benched is that he’s yet to fumble on the other 148 touches of his NFL career. That concern combined with the brutal matchup in Week 11 is something to worry about. The Saints have allowed just 3.75 yards per carry on the season, and even less than that if you remove the few games they were without defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins to start the season. Opponents have averaged just 17.9 carries per game against the Saints, too, which is not nearly enough work for a timeshare. Some may find solace in the fact that Jones had eight targets in the game, but the Saints have not allowed much production through the air either, allowing just 4.48 yards per target. There have been just four running backs who’ve totaled more than 13.0 PPR points against the Saints, and each one totaled at least 19 touches. This is a tough matchup for any running back, let alone one who may be back in somewhat of a timeshare. Jones should be considered a risky RB3 who has a better floor than most think, as he’s scored at least 6.2 PPR points in 8-of-9 games this year, including five games with 10.3 or more points.

WRs
Michael Thomas: Even in a game the Saints had nothing going and generated 9 points, Thomas was able to generate 28.2 PPR points. The craziest part is that he has a chance to hit 100 receptions in this, his 10th game of the season. He’s currently sitting at 86 receptions through nine games and is about to go against a Bucs team that he tagged for 11/182/2 a month and a half ago, and that was with Bridgewater under center. The Bucs are the definition of a funnel defense, as the run defense might be the toughest in the league, while everything flows through the secondary. Breaking down the fantasy points allowed to the opposing running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, the Bucs have allowed 59.0 percent of that production to go to wide receivers, the most in the league. Thomas was one of the seven receivers who’ve been able to total 23-plus PPR points against them. No other team has allowed more than five such performances. He’s totaled at least eight catches in 8-of-9 games and has 112-plus yards in four of the last five games (with an 89-yard game mixed in). He should be a hit in cash-game lineups, but the sites have ramped up his price to the point he has to score nearly 25 points just to hit value.

Tre’Quan Smith and Ted Ginn: Smith’s back into the lineup and seemingly healthy. He also out-snapped Ginn last week, 55-46. They’re both going to be on the field because the Saints run a lot of 3WR sets, but Smith is the one who seemingly presents the higher ceiling. Smith was charged with a drop last week, but it was not a ball he should’ve been expected to come down with. Later in the game, he hung onto a ball after taking a vicious shot, which likely earned some trust. The Bucs are a team to attack through the secondary, as they’ve allowed a massive 48.0 PPR points per game to wide receivers. There’s not another team in the league who’s allowing more than 42.6 PPR points per game. The Bucs have M.J. Stewart covering the slot, a second-year cornerback who’s allowed a 78 percent catch-rate in his coverage with seven touchdowns over 82 targets since the start of last year. Smith ran 77 percent of his routes from the slot last week. He’s a sneaky contrarian play to Michael Thomas in tournaments. Smith should be considered a boom-or-bust WR4/5 but one who can pay off. After falling behind Smith in snaps and not catching any of his three targets, Ginn looks more like a WR5 who is slowly fading into fantasy oblivion, though if there’s a matchup he can be useful, it should be this one. *Update* Stewart has been ruled out for this game, only increasing the appeal of Smith in this matchup. 

Mike Evans: Is there any way we can get Evans against his own secondary one of these weeks? I’d love to see what would happen in that scenario. Outside of his matchup with Marshon Lattimore in Week 5, Evans has now totaled 82-plus yards in each of his last six games, including three games with 180-plus yards. He caught a massive break this week, as Lattimore is going to be sidelined with a hamstring injury. That means Eli Apple and P.J. Williams are going to be responsible for trying to slow down the Evans freight train. That duo has combined to allow 41-of-65 passing for 592 yards and four touchdowns this year, and keep in mind that’s while Lattimore has taken care of the opposing No. 1 receiver. Evans should be in lineups as a rock-solid WR1 and someone who should be a popular DFS play.

Chris Godwin: The last time these two teams met, Godwin finished with seven catches for 125 yards and two touchdowns. It was his second biggest game of the year, yet his matchup has declined this time around. How is that possible with Marshon Lattimore out? Well, Lattimore won’t be shadowing Evans, which frees him up to make plenty of plays. Then, that has a butterfly effect throughout the secondary and slides P.J. Williams from the slot to the perimeter and allows Chauncey Gardner-Johnson to play the slot. The Saints may not have realized it yet, but Gardner-Johnson is better than Williams. On 20 targets in coverage, he’s now allowed just 40 yards and one touchdown. For those counting at home, that’s 2.0 yards per target in his coverage. It’s a very small sample size, but he was someone I liked a lot coming out of Florida. Godwin will still see some of Williams when he moves to the perimeter about 40 percent of the time, but it’s not ideal. Godwin is still in lineups as a low-end WR1, as the Bucs can pick their matchups here, but it could be Evans’ time to shine.

TEs
Jared Cook: It was surprising to see Cook tally a season-high 10 targets last week against the Falcons. He also topped 41 yards for the first time in his Saints career, which is a nice confidence boost as he enters one of the best matchups he could ask for with the Bucs. Most of the production that would typically go to running backs has gone to tight ends, as they’ve accumulated 9.3 targets per game against the Bucs, amounting to 18.2 PPR points per game. Only the Cardinals have allowed more fantasy points to tight ends. This is a fun stat: the Bucs have played nine games this year. The only tight end not to finish as a top-14 option against them was Maxx Williams. Cook deserves to be in lineups as a TE1 after seeing 10 targets, so when you toss in the matchup, it’s the icing on the cake.

O.J. Howard: Week 10 was the first time we saw Howard since the trade deadline when the Bucs turned down offers for the young tight end. Is it a coincidence that he saw a season-high seven targets in that game? Maybe, but maybe not. What we do know is that it’s a step in the right direction. He ran 41 routes while Cameron Brate ran just six routes. The Saints haven’t been a great matchup for tight ends over the last couple years, but they’ve slipped a bit this year while allowing a 75 percent completion-rate to the position, which is the second-highest mark in the league. That’s led to them allowing a sky-high 8.75 yards per target, though the 5.3 targets per game they’ve seen has limited the overall production. It’s possible those targets are so low due to the fact that they defend the position very well. Knowing we have just a one-game sample size with Howard, you don’t have to rely on him this week, but it’s a tough week for streamers, which leaves him in the high-end TE2 conversation. It’s rare to find a tight end with ‘one play’ upside but he’s one of them.