Denver Broncos at Minnesota Vikings

Total: 39.0
Line: MIN by 10.5

QBs
Brandon Allen: He threw the ball just 20 times in his debut but netted 193 yards and two touchdowns on them, leading many to believe he’s the real deal. Let’s pump the brakes on that small sample size, though it was nice to see him target his top receiver on 40 percent of his attempts. The Vikings are not the same defense they once were, though going into Minnesota is not an easy thing for veterans, let alone a quarterback who’s making his second career start. The Broncos team implied total sits at a measly 14.3 points, the lowest on the slate. There have been four quarterbacks who’ve been able to post numbers better than QB18 against the Vikings, though those quarterbacks were Matthew Stafford, Dak Prescott, Carson Wentz, and Matt Ryan. It’s also important to note that each of them totaled at least 40 pass attempts. The Vikings have allowed the 14th-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks despite facing the third most attempts through 10 weeks. You’re not starting Allen this week.

Kirk Cousins: He continued his solid play in Week 10, posting his fifth top-10 finish in his last six games. He’s posted a ridiculous 8.1 percent touchdown-rate since Week 5. We cannot forget that if/when his efficiency declines, we’re going to see a floor that’s lower than most. The Broncos rank third in the NFL when it comes to total fantasy points per game allowed to opponents behind only the Patriots and 49ers. Naturally, that affects the quarterback more than most, as we’ve still yet to see a top-12 finish against the Vic Fangio defense this year. In fact, 7-of-9 quarterbacks have finished outside the top 20 quarterbacks, which is quite ridiculous. There hasn’t been a quarterback who’s thrown for more than 273 yards and we’ve seen just one quarterback throw more than one touchdown. They have just a 6.1 percent sack-rate, but after not generating any the first three weeks, they’ve totaled 19 over their last six games. The Vikings should be simply looking to escape this game with a win into their bye week, which should severely limit Cousins’ pass attempts against this highly efficient defense. He’s not someone you should aim to play this week, as he’s just a middling QB2.

RBs
Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman: In the first game under Brandon Allen, the Broncos ran just 48 plays, which wont help anyone. Fortunately, Lindsay was able to break a few long runs and amass 92 yards and a touchdown on just nine carries. The downside is that Allen targeted running backs on just 2-of-20 attempts. It’s a small sample size, so we won’t overreact, but it’s something to monitor, as Joe Flacco heavily involved them in the passing game. It’s worth noting that Lindsay ran just five routes in that game while Freeman ran 14 of them. If we expect them to fall behind in this game (we do), that could play into Freeman’s role a bit more. The Vikings have been a brutal matchup for running backs, allowing just three running backs to score more than 13 PPR points all season. There were actually two running backs (David Montgomery and Ezekiel Elliott) who saw 22-plus touches yet finished with less than 10 PPR points. So, even volume hasn’t saved running backs in the matchup. It’s all about the end zone in this matchup because the yards likely won’t be there. Who has the better opportunity? That’s tough to say, as Lindsay has had seven carries inside the five-yard-line while Freeman has had three of them, but Freeman’s extended role in the passing game favors the projected gamescript. Both running backs should be viewed as unexciting RB3s this week.

Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison: During our podcast this week, Bobby brought up something that I would’ve bet to be untrue, but after checking it out, he was spot-on. Here’s another stat for you to win a bar bet: Mattison has more rushing yards than James Conner, Devonta Freeman, Austin Ekeler, and Royce Freeman this year. There’s many more I can add to the list, but wow. Despite that, Cook sits as the No. 2 running back in fantasy football and leads the league in rushing attempts (203) and rushing yards (991). Cook has finished with 27-plus opportunities in four straight games and is bringing that into a matchup with the Broncos who’ve faced an average of 29.9 running back touches per game, which is one of the higher marks in football. They’ve allowed just 0.75 PPR points per opportunity, which ranks as the eighth-lowest mark in football, so it hasn’t been a highly efficient matchup. Outside of the game where they allowed Leonard Fournette 225 yards, they’ve allowed just 609 yards on 189 carries (3.22 yards per carry). They’ve also allowed just one rushing touchdown over their last six games, so this team has continually gotten better. Cook is someone you’re playing every week and knowing he has 20-plus touches coming his way, you shouldn’t really doubt him, though this matchup hasn’t been kind. With everything we just went over, it’s probably clear that Mattison is nothing more than an RB4, though he’s someone who’s likely to get 8-10 carries in this game.

WRs
Courtland Sutton: In his first game with Allen, he was targeted on eight of the 20 pass attempts Allen threw. This is obviously a good thing, though Allen’s accuracy forced Sutton to make some remarkable catches. His touchdown catch was one that maybe one percent of wide receivers make. It was truly ridiculous. Another week gone by and another week the Vikings are looking less-and-less frightening to opponents. Through 10 weeks, they’ve allowed a league-high 16 wide receivers score 11.7 or more PPR points, which is the average mark it took to finish as a top-36 wide receiver in 2018. It’s not just the floor, either, as they’ve allowed 11 wide receivers to finish with 15.1 or more PPR points. They decided to bench Trae Waynes and put Mike Hughes in a full-time role. The Cowboys proceeded to target him a ridiculous 17 times, which netted 11 catches, 154 yards, and a touchdown. Even if the Vikings have Xavier Rhodes shadow him, he’s not someone to worry about, as he’s allowed a massive 86 percent catch-rate in his coverage this year. Sutton should be in lineups as a WR2 despite Allen’s shortcomings.

Stefon Diggs: He’s coming off two horrendous performances where he’s finished outside the top-40 receivers, and the matchup in Week 11 isn’t looking much better. He’s going to have a date with Chris Harris Jr., who’s playing the cornerback position as well as anyone in the league right now. Here’s a list of the receivers he’s shadowed this year:

Those are scary numbers for Diggs owners, as none of them finished better than WR16 and just two finished as top-30 options. The caveat is that Diggs is much better against man-coverage, which is what he’ll have most of the day. You have to trot him out there with no Thielen in the lineup, but he should be viewed as a low-end WR2 for this game who you’re hoping can break free for a big play.

Olabisi Johnson: Outside of one game where he saw eight targets when the Vikings lost Adam Thielen early-on, Johnson hasn’t seen more than four targets in a game. He also hasn’t topped 43 yards in any game. The Broncos have allowed just 123.9 yards to opposing teams of wide receivers this year, which ranks as the fourth-fewest in the NFL. You don’t want to play Johnson.

TEs
Noah Fant: There will be a lot of fantasy owners going to the waiver wire to add Fant after his 115-yard, one-touchdown game with Allen in Week 9 but proceed with extreme caution. He’s still seen five or less targets in 8-of-9 games and that was the first time he’d topped 37 yards all season. The Vikings may have allowed the 16th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends, but it’s not due to them being bad against the position. It’s due to them seeing an average of 95 targets, which is the second-most in the NFL. Despite that, they’re the only team in the NFL who’s yet to allow a tight end touchdown. The 1.28 PPR points per target ranks as the lowest mark in the NFL. What makes it even more impressive? They’ve played against Darren Waller, Austin Hooper, Travis Kelce, Evan Engram, Zach Ertz, T.J. Hockenson, Jason Witten, and Jimmy Graham. It’s safe to say Fant is not a preferred streamer this week.

Kyle Rudolph: With Thielen out of the lineup, Rudolph has made the most of his opportunity, racking up 19 targets, 15 receptions, 112 yards, and four touchdowns over the last four weeks. Prior to that, he’d tallied just nine receptions for 72 scoreless yards. With Thielen out again, Rudolph is someone we should at least take a look at. The issue is that the Broncos have been a great team at defending the tight end position. They’ve allowed a 67.6 percent completion-rate (13th-lowest), 6.62 yards per target (6th-lowest), and just one touchdown (2nd-lowest) on a healthy 68 targets. Their safety Kareem Jackson played a lot of slot cornerback with the Texans, so he’s used to defending tight ends quite often. Rudolph is nothing more than a middling touchdown-hopeful TE2 this week.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers

Total: 46.0
Line: SF by 11.5

QBs
Kyler Murray: The game started out rough for Murray, but he got things on track against the Bucs and ultimately finished with the second-best fantasy game of his young career. The reward is that he gets to play the 49ers again. They’re going through some changes on defense after losing linebacker Kwon Alexander, as he’s left a giant void over the middle of the field. They also might be without edge-rusher Ronald Blair, who suffered a knee injury on Monday night. Murray was able to tally 241 yards and two touchdowns against them two weeks ago, though it’s important to note that 88 yards and a touchdown came on one play to Andy Isabella, and most of the work was done after the catch. That was the only game this year that a quarterback finished averaging more than 7.4 yards per attempt against the 49ers, which includes matchups against Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston. The good news with Murray is that he’s rushed for at least 27 yards in seven of his last eight games, which helps provide a stable floor in tough matchups like this. The 6.04 yards per attempt the 49ers have allowed is extremely worrisome for Murray, who’s averaged just 7.1 yards per attempt himself, but the lack of plays is the biggest concern. 49ers opponents have averaged just 56.0 plays per game, which is the fewest in the NFL. That requires some serious efficiency, something the 49ers haven’t allowed much of. They’ve still allowed just eight passing touchdowns while intercepting 11 passes on the year. Murray is still in the low-end QB1 range due to his rushing prowess, and decent success against them two weeks ago, but there’s not much of a ceiling in this matchup.

Jimmy Garoppolo: If you were able to watch their Monday night game, you know that Garoppolo’s final stat line of 248/1/1 wasn’t very representative for how poorly he played. He lost two fumbles and should’ve had at least three interceptions in that game. He’s now thrown an interception in 7-of-9 games, which is far from ideal for a quarterback who’s needed to simply manage the game. For whatever reason, the oddsmakers have the 49ers projected for 28.8 points in this game, a number they didn’t even hit in the first game against the Cardinals while having Emmanuel Sanders and George Kittle in the lineup. The Cardinals have been a great matchup for plenty of quarterbacks, as there’ve been just two quarterbacks who’ve finished outside the top-12 against them. It’s important to note they’ve played some top-tier quarterbacks to contribute to that, including five games against top-12 fantasy quarterbacks. They’ve also faced a ridiculous 37.3 pass attempts per game, a number that Garoppolo doesn’t hit very often (the first time he went over that number was last week). Garoppolo has finished with more than 14.9 fantasy points just twice this year, so trusting him as anything more than a middling QB2 will likely lead to disappointment.

RBs
David Johnson and Kenyan Drake: This is going to be a bigger problem that we expected, as the timeshare flipped. Johnson does not look very good out there, as it’s clear he’s not 100 percent. He’s showing absolutely no burst and was even shoved back when tackled, something that doesn’t happen to him on a regular basis. It’s really no surprise Drake out-snapped him 43-29 and out-touched him 16-6. Now heading into a rematch with the 49ers, a team that Drake tagged for 162 total yards and a touchdown just two short weeks ago. The 49ers have been showing a vulnerability to the run if you can stick to it, as they’ve allowed 436 yards on 88 carries (4.95 yards per carry) with three rushing touchdowns over the last four weeks. During that time, they’ve allowed the 13th-most fantasy points to the running back position. After not allowing a running back to finish higher than RB30 over the first seven weeks, we’ve watched them allow three straight top-eight running backs. Will the Cardinals move to Drake and let Johnson heal-up? That’s the biggest storyline here, as we want to play the running back who’ll get the majority of touches. We’ll stay tuned to practice reports as the week goes on but for now, let’s say Drake is a low-end RB2 while Johnson is a risky RB3.

Tevin Coleman, Matt Breida, and Raheem Mostert: It seems the injuries never end with Breida, who suffered an ankle injury on Monday night. He’s not going to play this week. They’re heading into another matchup with the Cardinals, which has been a targeted matchup for all fantasy players. There’s not a team in the NFL who’s allowed more fantasy production per game than the Cardinals, as they’ve allowed quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends to accumulate 108.3 PPR points per game, which is nearly four full points per game more than the second-place team (Bucs). We did see Coleman struggle a bit in their first matchup, totaling just 23 yards on 12 carries, but that was without Kyle Juszczyk in the lineup. Their blocking fullback returning in Week 10, giving the run-game a boost. The Cardinals have allowed at least one rushing touchdown in five of their last eight games, and knowing the 49ers may be without their best receiver, we’re likely to see the running backs rack up the carries/targets this week. With Breida out, we could see Coleman approach 20 carries in this game. There’ve been three running backs who hit that number against the Cardinals this year and each of them finished with 18.5 or more PPR points. Coleman should be started as a high-end RB2. Mostert should also receive 8-12 touches, which he’s proven to do work with while averaging 5.5 yards per carry this season. In a bye-heavy week, Mostert has RB3 appeal in this game.

WRs
Christian Kirk: There’s the explosion we were waiting for with Kirk, who had all the signs of a player about to break-out. Unfortunately, he doesn’t get to play against the Bucs every week. The matchup against the 49ers has been brutal to wide receivers, including Kirk, who totaled just two catches for eight yards in their Week 9 meeting. They’ve moved Kirk to the perimeter over the last two weeks while running just 11 percent of his routes from the slot. It obviously did wonders against the Bucs, but not the 49ers. He’s lining up on the right side of the formation most of the time, which means he’d see Richard Sherman most of the time, the best cornerback on the 49ers. He’s allowed just a 52.8 percent catch-rate in his coverage and is extremely physical with receivers. They should move Kirk over to the other side of the field because Sherman doesn’t shadow, but if Week 9 was any indication, we can’t get too excited about the possibilities. Kirk remains on the WR3 radar as someone who’s still seen at least five targets in every game, but he may have the toughest matchup on the team.

Larry Fitzgerald: We saw Fitzgerald come back to life in Week 10 against the Bucs, which is what we were hoping for after he failed to top 38 yards in the previous three games. It was also the first game Fitzgerald had seen more than four targets since Week 6. Is there a resurrection? It seems somewhat unlikely at this point in the year, especially when he’s going against a team that’s allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers, including a matchup where Fitzgerald himself tallied just four catches for 38 yards.  The good news is that there have been six wide receivers who’ve totaled at least 70 yards against the 49ers, with three of them being slot-heavy receivers (Tyler Boyd, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Jarvis Landry). The key difference is that those three are all relatively young, while Fitzgerald is forced to rely on his intelligence to perform well. When a defense is playing is well as the 49ers are, it’s going to be tough to outsmart them. Let’s make Fitzgerald put together another solid game before trusting him as anything more than a middling WR4.

Emmanuel Sanders: I’m not counting on him playing in this game, as he’s dealing with damaged rib cartilage. On a short week, it seems unlikely. If we hear different, I’ll come back and update. *Update* He didn’t practice all week, but is listed as questionable, so there’s a chance he plays. Even if he does suit up, he may be doing so at less than 100 percent. If he does suit up, he’s a risky WR3. 

Deebo Samuel: Not only did he have a massive game in Week 10, but he also played 84 percent of the snaps, which was his highest total since back in Week 1. Sure, it likely had something to do with Sanders leaving the game, but Samuel did nothing but earn trust in that game. The issue is that if Sanders is out here, we could see Patrick Peterson shadow him in coverage. Peterson looked horrible in their first meeting, but has looked slightly better in other contests. At this stage in Samuel’s career, he would likely benefit from someone like Sanders to pull attention away from him, but if Sanders were held out, it would also increase Samuel’s target floor. In the first game against them, Samuel totaled four catches for 40 yards, but it should have included another catch with a touchdown, as he simply dropped a pass in the end zone. With the bye weeks in full effect, Samuel has the looks of a WR3/4 option whose role is growing.

TEs
Charles Clay: We’ve talked about this before. No tight end on the Cardinals has seen more than three targets in a game this year. Fun fact: The 2.5 PPR points Maxx Williams totaled in Week 10 is the No. 3 performance by a Cardinals tight end this year. I’m not kidding. You’re not playing them, especially in one of the worst matchups in football.

George Kittle: We likely won’t know his status until late in the week, but if you plan on starting him, you should grab Ross Dwelley to protect your investment. Everyone knows you start your tight ends against the Cardinals, right? They’ve allowed 21.4 PPR points per game to the position while no other team in the league has allowed more than 18.2 points per game to them. They’ve already allowed eight tight ends to finish top-10 against them and it seems like the 49ers will be without Emmanuel Sanders, which would only funnel more targets to the position. Knowing Dwelley saw seven targets last week, he can be plugged in as a high-end TE2 if Kittle is out. If Kittle plays, well, you don’t need me to tell you to play him. Based on early reports, it doesn’t seem likely that he’ll play. *Update* Kittle is officially listed as doubtful.

New England Patriots at Philadelphia Eagles

Total: 44.5
Line: NE by 3.5

QBs
Tom Brady: Coming off his bye week, the Patriots strengths seem to match the Eagles weaknesses fairly well. Brady is averaging nearly 40 pass attempts per game this year despite the Patriots outscoring their opponents 270-98 on the season. There have been four quarterbacks who’ve hit 40 pass attempts against the Eagles. The results were: Aaron Rodgers (422/2), Case Keenum (380/3), and Matt Ryan (320/3). It’s not only those who throw 40 pass attempts, as the Eagles have allowed 6-of-9 quarterbacks to score 19.1 or more fantasy points against them. Those who didn’t were Mitch Trubisky, Luke Falk, and Matthew Stafford (who was efficient, but the Lions were in the lead and ran down the clock) back in Week 3. All-in-all, the Eagles defense has allowed 27 or more points on six different occasions. Their secondary has gotten healthy over the last few weeks, as Ronald Darby and Avonte Maddox will both be available in this game. The pass-rush for the Eagles has been phenomenal, as they’ve pressured opposing quarterbacks 41.9 percent of the time, which is the best in the NFL, though their 7.2 percent sack-rate is the 11th-highest mark. Brady actually ranks 27th among quarterbacks with just a 47.9 QB Rating while under pressure, so that will be paramount for the Eagles. He’s only been pressured on 29.7 percent of his dropbacks, which is the fifth-lowest mark in the league. Brady should be considered a solid QB1 in a game the Patriots won’t be able to run the ball very well.

Carson Wentz: It’s been a rough season for the Eagles passing game, as it seemed they made a lot of plans around DeSean Jackson, but losing him in Week 2 has dragged down the potential for everyone, and particularly Wentz. After totaling 25.0 points in the first game, he’s been held to 15.1 points or less in 4-of-8 games. He’s thrown for more than 259 yards just twice and that’s despite averaging 33.7 pass attempts per game. He’s failed to throw more than one touchdown in four of the last five games and hasn’t topped 7.6 yards per attempt since back in Week 1 with Jackson. The Patriots are clearly not the best matchup for quarterbacks, as they’ve allowed just a 54.1 percent completion-rate, 5.29 yards per attempt, and three passing touchdowns while intercepting 19 passes through nine games. The 7.4 fantasy points per game they’ve allowed to quarterbacks would rank 75th among wide receivers. Lamar Jackson raised that number quite a bit with his rushing totals, as quarterbacks have averaged just 0.19 fantasy points per pass attempt against the Patriots, while no other team has allowed less than 0.32 points per attempt. Their competition has been extremely weak and they’re due for regression and knowing that Doug Pederson has had two full weeks to prepare for this game, they should be able to put some points on the board. Still, Wentz is nothing more than a high-end QB2 in this game and should likely be more towards the middling QB2 conversation. He should make for a semi-decent tournament option in DFS, though, in case this game turns into a shootout.

RBs
Sony Michel, James White, and Rex Burkhead: There have been just five games with all three running backs on the field this year. In those games, the touch-split has gone: Michel 79, White 41, Burkhead 30. Knowing the Michel gets minimal opportunities in the passing-game, his touches aren’t worth nearly as much, especially in a matchup like this. The Eagles allow a miniscule 3.36 yards per carry, which is the third-lowest mark in the league. They’ve allowed six rushing touchdowns (one every 28.2 carries), so it’s not like they’re impenetrable on the goal-line, which is where Michel would need to make his mark. There hasn’t been a single running back who’s finish top-20 against the Eagles without catching at least four passes. Michel is a low-end RB2 who needs to score. White is much more interesting considering the Eagles have allowed four different running backs to rack up six or more receptions against them. The Eagles have allowed 51-of-69 passes to be completed to running backs (74 percent), so knowing that White has seen at least seven targets in five different games, we should have a rock-solid floor in PPR formats. Speaking of which, White hasn’t scored less than 11.9 PPR points all season, which is essentially low-end RB2 territory. That’s where he’ll be ranked this week. Burkhead can surprise with a dozen touches any given week, though we’ve seen nothing to suggest he’ll get more than 4-8 touches per game, leaving him in emergency RB4/territory.

Jordan Howard and Miles Sanders: Have we been able to sniff out the ‘Jordan Howard games’ up until this point? When the Eagles are underdogs, it’s usually not a great time to expect a whole lot of touches out of him. He’s averaged 15.8 PPR points when the Eagles are favorites and just 9.7 PPR points when they’re underdogs. With Sanders being the much better pass-catcher, it’d make sense to have him on the field more than Howard this week. Howard has five targets over the last five games that have netted four receptions for 22 scoreless yards. Sanders has 17 targets that have netted 16 receptions for 221 yards and a touchdown. Howard is a good clock-killer, but Sanders is the better back. The Patriots have allowed a healthy 4.41 yards per carry on the year (11th-highest) but opponents are averaging just 17.4 carries per game against them. Oddly enough, three running backs (Mark Ingram, Nick Chubb, Frank Gore) have topped 100 rushing yards but finished with just three catches combined, and all failed to finish better than the RB20. They’re allowing just 1.18 PPR points per target, so they’ve done a phenomenal job removing pass-catchers out of the backfield, too. There’s seemingly not a great play between the two, though Sanders has the explosion that they need in the passing game, so he gets the nod, though both are in RB3 territory. *Update* Howard is reportedly very questionable for this game and may not play. Have alternative plans. The Eagles have signed Jay Ajayi back to the team, while placing Darren Sproles on injured reserve. What does all this mean? That Sanders should have a much higher floor than initially thought. He can be played as a high-end RB3 this week. 

WRs
Julian Edelman: The addition of Sanu to the offense has allowed the Patriots to use Edelman in the slot more than usual, as he ran 81.3 percent of his routes from the slot in Week 9. That number was closer to 65 percent over the first seven games. Is this a good thing against the Eagles? Not necessarily. They’ve allowed eight wide receivers to hit 15 PPR points this year but none of them were slot-heavy receivers. The top three games for slot receivers were Geronimo Allison‘s 3/52/1, Trey Quinn‘s 4/33/1, and Cole Beasley‘s 3/41/1. Outside of them, no slot-heavy receiver has totaled 8.0 PPR points. Granted, they aren’t Edelman, who’s now seen 11-plus targets in each of the last four games, but it’s something to note. Oddly enough, Sanu was the only slot-heavy receiver who saw more than six targets against them (he finished with just 4/16/0). There have been four receivers (Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley) who’ve seen double-digit targets against the Eagles, and all of them totaled 24-plus PPR points. There’s clearly a lot going on here, but fading Edelman usually ends poorly. He’s a high-end WR2 who comes with a solid floor.

Mohamed Sanu: After seeing just five targets in his first Patriots game, Sanu got up to speed and saw a ridiculously high 14 targets in his second game. He totaled 10/81/1 in a tough matchup against the Ravens, so this game should come a bit easier to him. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s had another two weeks to learn the offense and develop chemistry with Brady. The Eagles did get Ronald Darby back in Week 8, and have Jalen Mills on the other side, so this secondary has been going through some changes. That duo has allowed 29-of-46 passing for 356 yards and two touchdowns in their coverage, and that’s who Sanu will see about 60 percent of the time. The Eagles have been bleeding fantasy points on the perimeter, as the top eight wide receiver performances against them have been by primary-perimeter players. Knowing that combined with the fact that Sanu saw 14 targets in his second game with the team, Sanu should be in lineups as a WR3.

Phillip Dorsett: With Sanu in the fold, it’s eliminated the need to play Dorsett in the slot, which really curves his upside. He caught 11-of-11 targets for 158 yards and three touchdowns while in the slot this year, but he went from in the slot close to 40 percent of the time to about 10 percent of the time over their last two games. On his 26 perimeter targets, Dorsett has totaled just 12 receptions for 141 yards and one touchdown. It might work out for him this week, as the Eagles have been much better defending the slot than they have the perimeter. The fact that they allow the eighth-most fantasy points to receivers while seeing the 17th-most targets highlights their inefficiency. They’ve allowed 14.75 yards per reception, which is the fifth-highest mark in the league. Dorsett is going to be a boom-or-bust WR4/5 type option most weeks going forward, and this matchup presents an above-average opportunity.

Alshon Jeffery: Coming off a four-catch, 36-yard game against the Bears isn’t going to give his owners much confidence when heading into a matchup with the Patriots. It would appear likely that Jeffery sees Stephon Gilmore in coverage this week, which has been horrendous for fantasy receivers. He’s allowed just 337 yards and no touchdowns on 54 targets in coverage this year. Some have suggested they may use Gilmore on Ertz, though that would only mean Jeffery would see Jason McCourty who’s been just as dominant. Against wide receivers as a whole, the miniscule 49.2 percent catch-rate they’ve allowed is the lowest mark in the league, as is the 5.08 yards per target, and 1.03 PPR points per target. With him seemingly destined to have a sub-50 percent catch-rate, he’d need plenty of targets to do damage. He’s totaled more than eight targets just twice all year, so it doesn’t look great for him. He’s still in the WR3 conversation with four teams on bye but expecting a 15-point performance would likely be a mistake. *Update* Jeffery has been ruled out for this game with an ankle injury. Mack Hollins will step into his role, though he hasn’t been utilized very much in their offense this year, even when Jeffery’s been out. 

Nelson Agholor: It’ll be interesting to see what the Eagles do with Agholor this week, as he’s been the primary slot receiver, but with DeSean Jackson out for the year, the Eagles signed familiar face Jordan Matthews last week. He’s been a slot-heavy receiver over his career, including his time with the Eagles where he excelled. We know Agholor will be a full-time player, but where is an important question, as he’s struggled when moved to the perimeter. He’s kind of struggled everywhere this year, as he’s seen just one fewer target than Jeffery but has just two games where he’s finished as a top-36 wide receiver and none in the last six games. You can’t think about playing him in a game against a team that’s allowed just 111.2 yards per game to opposing teams of wide receivers. *Update* With Jeffery ruled out, it’s difficult to know how the Eagles will align their wide receivers, but it seems they may have to move Agholor outside and put Matthews in the slot. Agholor should see targets this week, though they may not amount to much. He’s just a low-upside WR4/5. 

TEs
Ben Watson: He’s now played in three games with the team and has totaled five targets in two of them, though the one-target game sandwiched in-between destroys much of the confidence streamers have. He hasn’t topped 28 yards in any game to this point, so it’s not as if you’ve missed much. Under Jim Schwartz, the Eagles have been the best in the league when it comes to defending tight ends. They’ve allowed the ninth-fewest points to the position this year, and outside of Jimmy Graham (who succeeded when they had tons of in-game injuries), no tight end has had any real success against them. Some may say Vernon Davis, but 90 percent of his production came on one play. Watson shouldn’t be considered a quality streamer, though we’ll continue to monitor his volume.

Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert: There will be a lot of fantasy owners who tell you that the Patriots are one of the best in the league against tight ends. Is that true, though? They’ve faced an NFL-low 4.1 targets per game by tight ends, and here’s the list of tight ends they’ve played: Demetrius Harris, Dawson Knox, Vance McDonald, Rhett Ellison, Mark Andrews, Jeremy Sprinkle, Mike Gesicki, and Ryan Griffin twice. Despite playing those tight ends, they’ve allowed a healthy 70.3 percent completion-rate and 7.78 yards per target to the position. There are rumors about whether the Patriots will have Stephon Gilmore shadow Ertz instead of Jeffery, though I wouldn’t bank on it (it’s actually possible now that Jeffery is out). When playing against mixed competition last year, the Patriots allowed the 15th most fantasy points per game to tight ends, including eight tight ends who totaled at least 11.1 PPR points. Ertz may be riskier than usual, but he should be in lineups as a TE1. Goedert may slip under the radar if the Patriots do key-in on keeping Ertz in check. Most don’t realize that Goedert has seen 22 targets over his last four games, which ranked fifth in the NFL during that time behind only Hunter Henry, Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, and George Kittle. He’s on the radar this week as a high-end TE2.

Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders

Total: 48.5
Line: OAK by 10.5

QBs
Ryan Finley: He was thrown into a brutal situation last week where he was without his starting left tackle, two starting wide receivers, and against one of the best defenses in the league. Philip Rivers may not have looked good against the Raiders, but you shouldn’t base your judgement on their pass defense to just that. They’ve allowed at least two passing touchdowns in 7-of-9 games, including three or more touchdowns in 5-of-9 games. Rivers was also just the second quarterback who didn’t average at least 7.2 yards per attempt against them. Their secondary has been going through a shift this year, as they lost safety Johnathan Abram the first game of the season, traded away starting cornerback Gareon Conley, and now lost Karl Joseph for what looks to be the remainder of the season, while nickel cornerback Lamarcus Joyner is considered week-to-week with a muscle injury. That doesn’t even include the season-ending injury to edge rusher Arden Key. Clearly, this is not a matchup to avoid. In fact, it’s one to attack. The question is: Just how much do you trust Finley with your starting QB slot? I’m not going recommend doing that.

Derek Carr: He’s been playing competently all year long, averaging a solid 7.8 yards per attempt with a 14:4 touchdown to interception ratio, though it’s only amounted to the QB19 in fantasy, right between Jared Goff and Andy Dalton. He doesn’t offer anything with his legs, which severely caps his upside, as does the fact that he’s totaled 32 pass attempts or less in each of the last six games. He’s finished as a top-12 option in just 2-of-9 games, but both of them have come in the last three weeks, so that’s something. The Bengals are a matchup that should allow him to find his way back into that top-12 conversation. They’ve allowed a massive 23.1 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks despite facing just 28.8 pass attempts per game. That doesn’t tell the whole story, as they’ve allowed a ridiculous 426 yards and three touchdowns on the ground to quarterbacks, something that doesn’t help the pocket-passer Carr. Even removing the rushing though, they’ve allowed 0.56 fantasy points per pass attempt, which ranks as the fifth-highest mark in the league. Playing at home while the Bengals travel across the country, we should see Carr become the 10th-straight quarterback finish as a top-16 option, and might be the eighth quarterback to finish as a top-12 option.

RBs
Joe Mixon: The Bengals went much more run-heavy than usual with Finley under center, as Mixon racked-up a massive 30 carries in Week 10. That was the first time he’d totaled more than 19 carries in a game this season. The hope was that Mixon would be more involved in the passing game with Finley, but he tallied just two receptions and ran just 14 pass routes, though it was double that of Giovani Bernard (7). Over the first eight games, Bernard ran 134 routes to Mixon’s 123. The Raiders have had the perception of being a bad run defense, though that’s not the case this year. Sure, Melvin Gordon was able to post 108 yards and a touchdown, but that’s just a small sample. On the year, the Raiders have allowed just 4.05 yards per carry and four rushing touchdowns, which are both below the league average. The reason their overall numbers are inflated are due to the five receiving touchdowns they’ve allowed. While some may view that as a weakness – it may be – there’s been just two running backs who’ve totaled more than four receptions and none who’ve totaled more than 48 receiving yards. What that suggests is that the touchdowns are a bit fluky and due for regression. We can’t assume that Mixon is heavily involved in the passing game just yet, though we’ve taken a step in the right direction. This isn’t a must-avoid matchup, but it’s also not as great of a matchup as some think. Mixon belongs in the high-end RB3 conversation.

Josh Jacobs: He’s finished as a top-12 running back in four of the last five games now, and has at least 17 opportunities in each game. The Raiders are double-digit favorites in this game, which is huge for Jacobs. He’s averaged a massive 21.9 PPR points per game in their five wins, while averaging just 10.2 PPR points in their four losses. Not just that, but the Bengals are horrendous against the run. They struggle in every facet of the game with running backs, as they’ve allowed 4.79 yards per carry (6th-most), 7.91 yards per target (most in NFL), and 0.96 PPR points per opportunity (4th-most). Opponents have averaged 29.2 touches per game, so knowing Jacobs has totaled 182 of the 268 touches available in the Raiders backfield (68 percent), we should project the rookie for around 20 touches. In a plus-matchup, Jacobs should be considered a stable RB1 this week.

WRs
Auden Tate: We have to assume A.J. Green is going to be out until he actually takes the field, which means Tate should remain in the pole position to lead the team in targets and/or air yards. Since entering the starting lineup in Week 3, Tate has totaled 58 targets. There are just 12 wide receivers who have more during that time. In those games, he ranks 24th in yardage. The Raiders have been a very giving team to wide receivers, as there’ve been 15 wide receivers who’ve tallied double-digit PPR points against them, including nine of them who’ve totaled at least 16.0 PPR points. The injury to Lamarcus Joyner is going to shift around the secondary, so we’re not sure who will move into the slot, but we should see Tate match-up with rookie Trayvon Mullen. He’s only seen 25 targets in his coverage since entering the starting lineup but has allowed a healthy 17 catches for 193 yards and two touchdowns. Provided Green is still out, Tate should be considered a WR3 with a decent floor.

Tyler Boyd: He had a better day against the Ravens with Finley than he did with Dalton, so I guess we must look at the positives? He’s now seen 90 targets on the season, which averages out to an even 10.0 targets per game. That’s great volume and he’s now headed into a plus-matchup with the Raiders. It was already a supreme one but it got even better when the Raiders lost Lamarcus Joyner to injury last week. He seems to be out multiple weeks, which means the Raiders are likely to shift around the secondary and put either Nevin Lawson or Daryl Worley in the slot to cover Boyd. They’re both plus-matchups for wide receivers. Even while relatively healthy, the Raiders had been allowing a massive 9.90 yards per target and 2.05 PPR points per target, both of which are bottom-five in the league. There isn’t much to worry about with Boyd this week, outside of the whole quarterback situation that he’s dealt with all year, so start him with confidence as a WR2.

Alex Erickson: He was dealing with an undisclosed injury in Week 10 which limited his snaps. He’s not an option as the No. 3 receiver for Finley regardless, but if you needed a reason to avoid him, there you go.

Tyrell Williams: It’s been an odd year for Williams who has yet to tally more than seven targets in a game and has totaled less than 50 yards in five of the last six games. In fact, you’d have to go all the way back to Week 2 to find the last time Williams totaled more than three receptions. That’s not great for someone who was supposed to offer WR3-type numbers. The Bengals are a plus-matchup, though his matchup is the toughest on the team. He plays at LWR about 55 percent of the time, which is where William Jackson lines up. He’s easily the best cornerback on the Bengals roster, as he’s allowed just 55 percent of passes that come his way be completed (though they’ve netted 14.8 yards per catch) with just one touchdown on 29 targets. Williams won’t be in his coverage all the time, so it’s not as if we have to cross him off or anything. After all, the Bengals have allowed a league-high 10.18 yards per target to wide receivers. The issue is that 140 targets, or 15.6 per game that wide receivers see against them. That’s the only reason they’ve allowed the 11th-fewest points to wide receivers. Knowing Williams doesn’t see elite targets, it’s a bit frustrating to rely on him as anything more than a WR3, even in a good matchup.

Hunter Renfrow: It’s odd but Renfrow actually has more games with more than seven targets than Tyrell Williams does. It’s just one game, but still. Renfrow is kind of like that thorn in the side that won’t go away, but it wont do enough damage to hurt you. He’s tallied 16 targets over the last three weeks and turned them into 14 receptions for 184 yards and two touchdowns. The Bengals have Darqueze Dennard covering the slot, a cornerback who’s had some solid stretches over his career (primarily in 2017), though he’s played in just two games this year. He’s only seen eight targets in coverage to this point, so it’s tough to say how he fits in with this new Bengals scheme. The biggest obstacle for all Raiders receivers is the lack of pass attempts, and therefore targets against the Bengals. Receivers have netted a league-low 15.6 targets per game against them, which makes it hard to project anyone for more than 5-6 targets. Because of that, Renfrow is stuck in the WR4/5 conversation, though he should have a semi-decent floor in this matchup.

TEs
Tyler Eifert: He saw four targets in Finley’s first start, which isn’t the end of the world, but the fact that he ran just 12 routes is a massive warning sign. C.J. Uzomah ran eight routes, so there’s a clear timeshare between the two, though Eifert is the one who was targeted, and also the only Bengals pass-catcher to score. The Raiders have not been a very good team at defending the tight end position since the start of the Gruden regime and it seems very unlikely that losing another starting safety would help matters. After losing their rookie first-round pick Johnathan Abram in Week 1, they also lost Karl Joseph last week, forcing them to go out and snag D.J. Swearinger, who’s been cut by two teams in less than a year. He was one of the better safeties in the game last year, but it’s tough to transition and make a difference on a new team with just a week’s notice. We’ve seen 6-of-9 tight ends perform as top-13 tight ends against the Raiders to this point, so the matchup has streaming appeal, though Eifert is extremely difficult to trust with his lack of snaps/routes. We’re in dire need for streamers this week, so he’s in the conversation, but understand there’s a non-zero percent chance that he’s a complete dud.

Darren Waller: After he totaled at least seven targets in six of the first seven games, Waller has totaled just two and five targets over the last two games. Fortunately, he’s a big-play machine and was able to churn those targets into 92 yards. This could be his shot to get back on the elite radar, as the Bengals have been a matchup to target with tight ends who get volume. Here’s my words last week on Mark Andrews when many said the Bengals were good against tight ends: Similar to receivers against the Bengals, volume has been an issue. The Bengals have allowed the fifth-fewest points to tight ends this season, but the 9.42 yards per target ranks as the second-highest mark in the league behind only the Cardinals. Add in a 6/53/2 performance by Andrews last week and they’ve now allowed 9.79 yards per target to tight ends, which is the most in the NFL. Waller should be in lineups as a high-end TE1 who could have a massive game.