Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams

Total: 41.5
Line: LAR by 6.5

QBs
Mitch Trubisky: He looked like the quarterback we saw for much of last year, as he played competently and made throws when he needed to. Now let’s see him do it again. The Rams defense is a much tougher matchup than the Lions, who have been struggling to generate pressure. The Rams have been a bit up and down but have generated an average pressure-rate of 36.5 percent, which ranks 10th in the NFL. Trubisky has been brutal under pressure, posting a 46.4 QB Rating, which ranks as the third-worst mark in the league. Only Baker Mayfield and Mason Rudolph have been worse. Coincidentally, the Rams held Rudolph to just 22-of-38 passing for 242 yards and one touchdown last week, though that’s better than most would’ve expected. All-in-all, there’ve been just two quarterbacks who’ve topped 7.36 yards per attempt against the Rams this year, and they were Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston back in Weeks 4 and 5. In fact, outside of those two games, they’ve allowed just three passing touchdowns in their other seven games combined. This is not a week to contemplate Trubisky.

Jared Goff: Just when you think it can’t get any worse, it does. Goff’s tally is now 18 passing touchdowns over his last 17 games. How bad is that? Mitch Trubisky has 22 passing touchdowns in that time and that doesn’t even include his six-touchdown game against the Bucs. Everyone has called for Trubisky’s head, while Goff has flown somewhat under the radar. Now coming off a zero-touchdown game against the Steelers, he’ll play the Bears. They’re somewhat similar games, as both teams have a solid pass-rush, and both are able to generate turnovers because of that. Goff went against a similar Bears team last year, completing just 20-of-44 passes for 180 yards, no touchdowns, and four interceptions. The Bears defense has certainly looked much more beatable without defensive tackle Akiem Hicks, though he’s affected their run-defense much more than anything. They’ve allowed just nine passing touchdowns through nine games, and there’s been just two quarterbacks who’ve thrown more than one touchdown against them all season. They’ve also yet to allow a quarterback average more than 7.7 yards per attempt on the year. Because of that, they’ve yet to allow a 20-point fantasy quarterback. The Bears defense isn’t the reason their team has failed to live up to expectations, though they are more beatable than when Goff was in Chicago last year. His offensive line is also much worse than it was last year, and they will be without two starters for this game. Goff is nothing more than a middling QB2 for this game and not one you should aim to use until he proves he can throw touchdowns against a halfway decent team.

RBs
David Montgomery and Tarik Cohen: Some will be down on Montgomery after a weak performance against the Lions in Week 10, but it might be time to buy him. He’s now totaled at least 16 opportunities in six of his last eight games, including three games with 21 or more. The Bears cut Mike Davis, leaving him in the backfield with Cohen, who doesn’t get more than four carries per game. Trubisky taking a step in the direction can only help him have more scoring opportunities. The Rams haven’t been a particularly great matchup for running backs, as they’ve allowed six running backs to finish top-20, but no other running backs to finish in the top-30. It’s required volume to get it done against them, too. The only starting running back who’s averaged more than 4.37 yards per carry against them was Christian McCaffrey and that was way back in Week 1. In terms of points per opportunity, the Rams defense ranks sixth against running backs. The good news is that the Rams haven’t been able to put many teams away in a blowout, which means Matt Nagy should stick with the run as long as he can, which keeps Montgomery in the RB2 conversation, though it’s the lower-end of it. Cohen offers splash-play potential at any time, though it hasn’t happened in 2019. He has yet to top 49 total yards in any game, after reaching at least 50 yards in 10-of-16 games last year. The Rams haven’t been a matchup to attack with pass-catching backs, as there’s been just one who’s topped four catches or 35 yards against them all season, and that was… Christian McCaffrey. The 1.40 PPR points per target they’ve allowed ranks eighth-lowest in the league. Cohen is nothing more than a low-upside, low-end RB3 who has a semi-decent floor. *Update* Montgomery rolled his ankle in practice Wednesday, leading him to miss practice on Thursday, though he did return on Friday in a limited fashion. It adds some risk to him, moving him down into RB3 territory, as he could be limited. Cohen should get much more work in the passing-game, as they will be without both Trey Burton and Adam Shaheen, and will have Allen Robinson shadowed by Jalen Ramsey. Cohen is shaping up as a solid volume RB3 with a solid floor in PPR formats. 

Todd Gurley: Here’s a fun fact: Gurley has yet to top 20 opportunities in a game this season. That’s carries and targets combined. Based on how often he’s touched the ball, Gurley should only be expected to be a low-end RB2 this season. Many hold him to a higher regard, but he’s performing almost exactly how he’s supposed to, especially when you consider this horrendous offensive line. The craziest part of it all is that he has just one reception over his last three games combined. That shouldn’t be happening. The Bears have been a matchup to target with running backs since losing defensive tackle Akiem Hicks, as they’ve now allowed 503 yards on 127 carries (3.96 yards per carry) with seven rushing touchdowns in five games without him. The Bears run defense had allowed five rushing touchdowns in the previous 21 games. Opponents have racked-up 29.9 running back touches per game against the Bears, which bodes well for this timeshare, as the Rams running backs have combined to average just 22.4 touches per game with Gurley netting just under 60 percent of them. Coming off a game where he hit a season-high 6.1 yards per attempt against the Steelers, Gurley should get 15-18 touches in this game and be considered a high-end RB2.

WRs
Allen Robinson: Knowing he had Darius Slay attached to his hip, Robinson’s six-catch, 86-yard performance in Week 10 was a good one. After just one week of less than seven targets, the Bears got him back above that mark, so he’s now seen a minimum of seven targets in 8-of-9 games. He’s also generated five-plus receptions in 7-of-9 games. Will that continue in a brutal matchup with Jalen Ramsey? The two are familiar with each other from their time together in Jacksonville. Ramsey has now been on the Rams for three weeks and he hasn’t been as shutdown as advertised, allowing 14-of-17 passing for 202 yards in his coverage. He’s actually allowed a 70.7 percent catch-rate in his coverage on the year, so maybe his back injury is really a thing? You have to play Robinson on a weekly basis with his talent and target-floor, but don’t be surprised if Trubisky gets picked-off trying to force the ball to him this week. Consider Robinson a low-end WR2 for this matchup. You should know the Rams have allowed just one wide receiver to top 97 yards this year despite four of them reaching at least 10 targets.

Taylor Gabriel: Knowing that Robinson will get Jalen Ramsey in coverage, that’s going to leave Troy Hill with Gabriel. The former undrafted free agent has done a good job replacing Marcus Peters in the lineup, allowing just 13-of-27 passing for 159 yards and one touchdown this year, which is much better than the 65 percent catch-rate and touchdown every 8.6 targets in 2018. Is it too small of a sample size to make a judgement? Possibly. He is coming off his worst game of the season. Gabriel is a speed demon with 4.3 wheels while Hill was clocked at 4.55 seconds in the 40-yard-dash. If the Bears want to get the ball down the field and take chances, Gabriel is going to be the one to watch. The Rams haven’t been a team to allow a lot of big plays, as the 21 pass plays they’ve allowed over 20 yards rank as the fifth-fewest in the league. Gabriel is someone to take a shot on in showdown slates, as he’s seen at least five targets in 5-of-7 games, but he’s nothing more than a hail-mary WR5 in season-long leagues.

Cooper Kupp: What in the world happened last week? While Drew Brees‘ lackluster performance and David Johnson‘s negative fantasy performance were surprising, Kupp’s zero-catch day was likely the most shocking. It’s really been feast-or-famine with Kupp, as he has five games over 100 yards and four games with 50 yards or less. Week 10 was the first time he’d seen less than six targets and just the second time he’d seen less than eight targets. Will he bounce back? The Bears have been especially tough on slot receivers this year, as Buster Skrine has been a surprise, allowing just 32-of-51 passing for 273 yards and two touchdowns in his coverage. That’s just 5.35 yards per target, which is among the best in the league. The biggest game they’ve allowed to a slot receiver was Keenan Allen‘s seven-catch, 53-yard performance, though he was coming off his hamstring injury in that game. The Bears have allowed just seven wide receivers to top 53 yards all season, so the production may be hard to come by for all the Rams pass-catchers. Still, Kupp is the most likely one and should remain in lineups as a low-end WR1.

Robert Woods: With Brandin Cooks out of the lineup, Woods saw a rock-solid 11 targets and turned them into seven catches for 95 yards but failed to score again. He now has 566 yards on the season but no receiving touchdowns. Mike Williams and Davante Adams are the only other receivers with more than 350 yards who’ve yet to score a touchdown. Will it end against the Bears? It’s seemingly unlikely considering they’ve allowed just four touchdowns on 169 wide receiver targets this year. Woods will line up across from Kyle Fuller much of the day, a cornerback who can struggle at times but dominate in others. If forced to stay in coverage for a long time, Woods can beat him, but the Rams offensive line hasn’t allowed much time for plays to develop. As mentioned in the Kupp paragraph, the Bears have allowed just seven wide receivers to top 53 yards this year, so it’s not likely we see multiple receivers have big games. Woods’ matchup might be better than Kupp’s but you can’t bet on him getting more targets than Kupp for a second straight game. Woods has a higher floor with Cooks out of the lineup, so slot him in as a low-end WR2.

Josh Reynolds: He’s seen 13 targets in the two games he’s replaced Kupp, which is enough to consider him generally, though he’s been extremely inefficient on a per-target basis this year, averaging just 6.8 yards per target. Meanwhile, the Bears have allowed just 7.20 yards per target to wide receivers, which ranks as the sixth lowest mark in the league. As a whole, wide receivers have averaged 135.1 yards per game against the Bears, which is not great when you think about Reynolds as the No. 3 option among the Rams receivers. His matchup with Prince Amukamara isn’t bad, as he can get beat over the top, but he’s more of a DFS tournament play than a season-long one. He’s should be considered a low-floor WR4/5 in season-long leagues.

TEs
Trey Burton: He’s an afterthought in the Bears offense, which is odd considering how much they felt they needed him when Nagy was hired. He’s seen just one target in each of the last two games and is now in a four-way timeshare with Ben Braunecker, Adam Shaheen, and J.P. Holtz. Burton played just 35 percent of the snaps in Week 10, which was a season-low. The Rams haven’t been a particularly giving team to tight ends on a per-target basis this year, as their 1.69 PPR points per target ranks as the ninth lowest mark in the NFL. They have allowed five top-10 performances against them, though George Kittle, Austin Hooper, and Will Dissly accounted for three of them, guys that are clearly out of Burton’s league. You can’t trust him with his snaps and targets declining on a weekly basis. *Update* Burton has been ruled out for this game, as has Adam Shaheen. If you’re looking for the backup for a DFS showdown slate, Ben Braunecker is the one you’d turn to. 

Gerald Everett: Has Everett become one of the must-start tight ends? He’s now seen at least five targets in five of the last six games, including three games with double-digit targets. With how little the running backs are involved in this offense, his production should continue. It’s a tough matchup against the Bears this week, a team that’s allowed just two tight ends to top 49 yards against them since the start of the 2018 season, which is now a span of 25 games. Those two tight ends were George Kittle and Zach Ertz, who both saw double-digit targets. Can Everett get there again? The Bears have allowed a 75 percent completion-rate to the position, as well as 8.08 yards per target, so there has been production, just spread out among tight ends. Everett is inching his way into must-start territory, though this week he’s just a low-end TE1 who might disappoint.

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers

Total: 52.5
Line: KC by 3.5

QBs
Patrick Mahomes: Safe to say he’s back? After a 446-yard, three-touchdown performance, you’d better believe it. Now on to play the Chargers, who’ve been getting better against the pass as the weeks go by. They are a team that allowed seven passing touchdowns with two interceptions over the first two weeks but have since allowed just seven touchdowns while intercepting five passes over a seven-game sample size. Aaron Rodgers was part of that sample when they held him to just 23-of-35 passing for 161 yards and one touchdown. It could have simply been an off-day for him, as he and Devlin Hodges were the only two quarterbacks who averaged less than 7.0 yards per attempt. The Chargers have had a relatively easy schedule, though. Part of the reason they’ve allowed so little production is due to the fact that no quarterback has thrown more than 35 passes against them. They’ve actually allowed the 12th-most fantasy points per pass attempt despite allowing the sixth-fewest points to them. The 35-attempt mark is one Mahomes has hit in 6-of-7 full games. Even with this defense at nearly full-strength last year, Mahomes tallied 256 yards and four touchdowns on just 27 pass attempts. You’re playing him wherever you can.

Philip Rivers: It’s been somewhat of a nightmare season for Rivers who hasn’t thrown more than two touchdowns since way back in Week 1 and has failed to top 14.8 fantasy points in five of the last six games. The Chiefs bring an interesting matchup for him, though. Many quarterbacks have had success against them, as evidenced by the 18.9 or more fantasy points they’ve allowed to quarterbacks in 6-of-9 games. The only quarterbacks who failed to reach the top-10 have been Derek Carr (Week 2), Jacoby Brissett (Week 5), and Joe Flacco (Week 7). In the new offense, Rivers has thrown the ball just 59 times over two games, which is a far cry from the 38.1 attempts he averaged over the first eight games. The Chargers like to play a slow-paced game while the Chiefs are more about business, so this game should wind-up having a decent pace, especially if the Chiefs throw points on the board. The issue is rational coaching. How would you attack the Chiefs if you ran an NFL team? You’d play keep-away with your run-game against their horrendous run defense and try to keep Mahomes off the field, right? That could lead to another low-attempt game for Rivers, which highlights his floor. His ceiling, however, is 300-plus yards and three touchdowns while playing catch-up. He’s in the high-end QB2 conversation as someone with a few highly different outcomes.

RBs
Damien Williams, Darrel Williams, and LeSean McCoy: This backfield just got a whole lot more interesting over the last week. First, McCoy was a healthy scratch. The Chiefs said afterwards that it was a “planned veteran’s rest day,” but really? No coincidence that he fumbled two weeks ago and was benched in favor of Damien? Then… Damien fumbled during their Week 10 game, resulting in a touchdown for the Titans. That happened mid-second quarter and he did get touches the rest of the game, but it’s another wrinkle. The downside is that the Chiefs don’t play until Monday night. I’d guess Damien still has the job considering they gave Darrel just three touches in that game. The Chargers have been a leaky run defense this year, allowing eight different running backs to finish as top-12 options against them through 10 games. The only running back who received more than 15 touches against them and didn’t finish as a top-12 running back was Benny Snell, because, well, he’s Benny Snell. Opponents have averaged 28.4 touches per game against the Chargers with an efficient 4.40 yards per carry and 6.98 yards per target. If I could guarantee Damian would see another 15 touches, he’d be in the RB1 conversation this week, but we cannot ignore the potential risk, leaving him as a high-upside RB2. As for McCoy, there’s a chance he totals 12 touches and a chance he doesn’t play at all. If you want to play him, make sure to grab Darrel to have someone to swap to should he be held inactive again.

Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler: They’ve now played two games without Ken Whisenhunt, and in those two games, Gordon has totaled 46 touches to Ekeler’s 24 touches. That’s a 65/35 split. In the nine games they played together prior to Gordon’s injury last year, the touch-split was Gordon 185, Ekeler 72, which was around a 70/30 split. So, it’s closer, but Gordon has a workhorse role again. Lucky for them, both can succeed against a Chiefs defense that’s had issues with running backs. There have been 14 running backs who’ve finished top-36 against them. This is your reminder that they’ve only played 10 games. Nine of those performances were in the top-18. The 30.8 PPR points per game they’ve allowed to running backs is the most in the NFL. The Chiefs have allowed more fantasy points per game to running backs (30.8) than they have to wide receivers (28.0). They are the only team in the NFL who can say that. It also helps to know that running backs have averaged a massive 30.0 touches per game against them, which is why both Gordon and Ekeler should be relevant. If the split holds, we’re looking at close to 20 touches for Gordon, while Ekeler would be around 10 touches. There’s not one area they’re better in than the others, as they’ve allowed efficiency both on the ground and through the air, though they have allowed five receiving touchdowns to running backs, which is the most in the league. Gordon should be played as a solid RB1 while Ekeler can be played as a low-end RB2 with some upside should they fall behind.

WRs
Tyreek Hill: He’s been more consistent than ever this year, as he’s now totaled at least 74 yards in every full game he’s played, including 140-plus yards in each of the last two games. It surely helps that he’s seen 37 targets over the last three weeks, including a career-high 19 of them in Week 10. He’s impossible to match-up with in man-coverage, and the safeties the Chargers are trotting out there are backups. In fact, it could be the backup to the backup if Roderic Teamer is out again. Fellow speedster and route-runner T.Y. Hilton was able to torment this secondary for 8/87/2 on just nine targets, and he’s the lite-version of Hill. They are one of the most zone-heavy teams in the league, so they could look to keep the play in front of them, which is fine considering Hill is being used all over the field. He’s an elite WR1 play each and every week, and this matchup shouldn’t scare you.

Sammy Watkins: Most don’t realize the opportunity Watkins has in this offense but allow me to let you know. He’s averaged 9.3 targets per game if we exclude the game he left on the first drive (why wouldn’t we?). He’s seen less than eight targets just once all year and even then, he saw six of them. His fantasy floor should be massive. We’ve unfortunately seen his floor, but most aren’t baking in his ceiling. Playing alongside Mahomes and Hill, he has great opportunity and the ability to finish as a top-12 receiver at any time with the volume he’s receiving. The Chargers have allowed a rather-high 71.4 percent catch-rate to receivers, as they prefer to allow the underneath stuff in their zone-heavy scheme. Because of that, we could see Watkins rack up some catches and be a solid cash and tournament play on the showdown slate. He should be in lineups as a high-upside WR3 in this game.

Keenan Allen: Similar to Sammy Watkins, Allen has been receiving plenty of opportunity, but hasn’t done much with it. Based on where his targets have come and who they’re coming from, Allen ranks No. 2 in expected fantasy points among wide receivers. A matchup with the Chiefs might be right what the doctor ordered. The last time he met this secondary was Week 1 of last year when he tallied eight catches for 108 yards and a touchdown. Things have changed a bit for them, though, as slot cornerback Kendall Fuller has been out of the lineup with a fractured thumb. Rashad Fenton has tried to fill that role but has allowed 80 yards and a touchdown on 14 targets in the slot. Fuller wasn’t playing very well to begin with, as he’d allowed 14-of-20 passing for 186 yards and two touchdowns. The perimeter cornerbacks have played much better for the Chiefs, so we should see a lot of targets funnel to Allen. He’s been too good for too long to expect his struggles to continue. A guy with his talent seeing 10-plus targets in three of the last four games? He’s a low-end WR1 with upside.

Mike Williams: He leads the league in yards without a touchdown. He’s amassed 585 yards with an impressive 10.4 yards per target, but the lack of touchdowns has crushed his fantasy upside. We’re all waiting for that blow-up game, though it may not come in Week 11. The Chiefs have seen 161 targets to wide receivers and have allowed just eight touchdowns on them, so one every 20.1 targets. The duo of Charvarius Ward and Bashaud Breeland have combined to allow just a 52.7 percent completion-rate on 93 targets in coverage with just three touchdowns, so they’re even tougher to get on the perimeter. Williams does get into the slot about 30 percent of the time, so he can find some production there. We know he’s able to score remarkable touchdowns where he skies over defenders; we saw it last year when he caught 10 touchdowns on 66 targets. He hasn’t finished outside the top-48 receivers in seven of his last eight games but has finished inside the top-30 just three times. Once he starts scoring, everyone will play him as a low-end WR2/high-end WR3, but until we start seeing it, he’s just a risky WR3. It also doesn’t help that he’s seen just seven targets over the last two weeks in the new offense.

TEs
Travis Kelce: Welcome back, Mahomes. With him in the lineup, Kelce has totaled 70-plus yards in all but one game. The matchup on the horizon is a very interesting one for Kelce. Why? Well, his last three games in Los Angeles have netted three catches for 15 yards… combined. No, I’m not kidding. While playing in Kansas City over that same time period, Kelce has totaled 19 catches for 181 yards. What is it about playing on the road against the Chargers? I have no clue. He’s actually played 10 games in his career against them (not that it matters through coaching changes, but still) and has not scored a single touchdown. The Chargers have allowed just the seventh-fewest point to tight ends this year despite playing with backup safeties, though volume is a big part of the reason why. They’ve allowed 7.88 yards per target, which ranks as the 13th most in the NFL. But knowing that no tight end has been targeted more than five times doesn’t give us a whole lot of information. Kelce should be started as his normal TE1 self in season-long, though this history against the Chargers is interesting for DFS purposes.

Hunter Henry: Thankfully, Henry got into the end zone last week with Rivers struggling as much as he was. Henry has now seen 17 targets in the two games since firing Whisenhunt, so the new offense clearly doesn’t shy away from him, especially when you know Rivers has only attempted 59 passes, which amounts to a massive 28.8 percent target share. The Chiefs have allowed plenty of points to tight ends this year (14.2 PPR points ranks 8th-most) but a lot of the production has been volume-based. The 6.07 yards per target they’ve allowed to the position actually ranks as the fourth-best number in football. Does their defense funnel targets to the tight end position? It could considering they’ve seen a league-leading 97 targets, which amounts to nearly 10 targets per game. They’ve allowed just three touchdowns on those targets, so we’re targeting volume with Henry, and there’s no tight end in the league who’s averaged more opportunity than Henry since he returned. Start Henry as you normally would.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns

Total: 40.5
Line: CLE by 3.0

QBs
Mason Rudolph: Another week gone by and another week Rudolph isn’t fantasy relevant. He’s still yet to score more than 16.8 fantasy points, which isn’t typically enough to get inside the top 12 quarterbacks any particular week. The Browns have still yet to allow a 300-yard passer against them, though they have allowed 7-of-9 quarterbacks to throw for multiple touchdowns. Their pass-rush has continually pressured the opposing quarterback over the last four games and have generated at least a 36.0 pressure-rate in every game. Rudolph has a 38.0 QB Rating while under pressure, which ranks 33rd among 35 qualified quarterbacks. It’s tough to overlook the fact that 7-of-9 quarterbacks have scored at least 16.2 fantasy points against the Browns, but Rudolph going on the road as a three-point underdog with an 18.8-point implied team total on a short week shouldn’t be something you target in fantasy. His floor is simply too low to trust as anything more than a low-end QB2, and his ceiling has been 251 yards with two touchdowns. You can find a better streamer.

Baker Mayfield: After failing to throw for more than one touchdown in each of the first eight games, Mayfield threw for two touchdowns against the Bills, because, well… fantasy. It certainly helps that Mayfield was pressured just 17.1 percent of the time in that matchup, the lowest mark in all of football in Week 10. The Steelers have pressured the opposing quarterback on at least 41 percent of his dropbacks in each of the last four games they’ve played. If you read the above paragraph on Mason Rudolph, you’d know that he ranks 33rd among 35 quarterbacks when pressured. Well, Mayfield ranks 32nd with just a 42.9 QB Rating while under pressure. Since acquiring Minkah Fitzpatrick, here are the Steelers marks across those seven games: 153-of-247 passing (61.9 percent completion-rate) for 1,589 yards (6.43 yards per attempt), nine touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. The best finish against them during those weeks was QB16, which included Lamar Jackson and Philip Rivers. Another issue with this game is pace-of-play, as both teams rank in the bottom-six in terms of overall plays per game. Let’s wait and see Mayfield string together two solid games before trusting him as a streamer. Knowing this is a tough matchup, it makes it a bit easier to keep him in the low-end QB2 territory.

RBs
James Conner and Jaylen Samuels: It seems Conner will be all systems go this week, as he’s practiced every day. It’s no secret that the Steelers would like to hide Mason Rudolph if possible, and against a Browns team that’s struggled to put points on the board, they should be able to run the ball as much as they choose. For whatever reason, teams have averaged just 22.0 rushing attempts per game against the Browns. Part of it could be because their opponents average just 62.4 plays per game, but still, they’ve allowed a massive 4.86 yards per carry on the season. They’ve only allowed five rushing touchdowns, which has kept the overall fantasy numbers down, but we’ve still seen four different running backs finish as a top-six running backs against them. They’ve only faced 6.3 running back targets per game this year, but on those targets, they’ve allowed 6.84 yards per target, which is the ninth-highest mark in the league. We’ve seen the Steelers target running backs 8.2 times per game, so we could see some solid production in that area of the field, too. Provided Conner has no limitations, he should be considered a high-end RB2. Samuels is going to get touches, but seeing he’s averaging just 2.2 yards per carry and 5.76 yards per target, he’d need a lot to be relevant. He’s nothing more than an emergency RB4.

Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt: The first game broke down as a 66/33 split between these two, though they did net enough touches in that game to both be relevant. Oddly enough, Hunt out-produced Chubb in PPR formats while racking up seven receptions on a massive nine targets. A matchup with the Steelers will really test the limits of this timeshare, as they’ve yet to allow a running back to finish top-16 against them all year. We’re now entering Week 11 on the season, yet some still believe that matchups don’t matter. If you’re looking for sort of a positive spin on the matchup, the Steelers will be coming off a short week, so maybe they’re a bit worn down? I suppose the same can be said about the Browns running backs. The Steelers have yet to allow a running back record more than 89 yards on the ground, which isn’t great, and they’ve also excelled at defending running backs through the air. The 1.16 PPR points per target they’ve allowed ranks as the lowest mark in the NFL, which includes zero catches to the combination of Rams running backs last week. Because of that, Chubb is the only one you can truly trust here, though his ceiling is obviously limited. The biggest performance against the Steelers run defense this year has been Jeffrey Wilson‘s 13.8 PPR points back in Week 3. Knowing Chubb has totaled at least 20 carries in six of his last seven games, he should be locked into lineups as a low-end RB1/high-end RB2. With the limited plays available in this game, it would be somewhat shocking to see Hunt finish with more than 6-10 touches. This matchup is horrendous on a per-touch basis, so he should be considered nothing more than an RB4.

WRs
JuJu Smith-Schuster: It’s been a frustrating season for Smith-Schuster who was not only thrown into a new No. 1 role, but was also subjected to Mason Rudolph as his starting quarterback. He’s now finished outside the top-45 wide receivers in four of the last six games. The worst part is his lack of elite targets, as he’s yet to reach double-digits. The Browns have T.J. Carrie defending the slot with both Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams back, and that’s who Smith-Schuster will see on 65 percent of his routes (provided Eric Murray remains out). Carrie has only faced nine targets in the slot this season while in relief of Murray, allowing seven receptions for 57 yards, with 48 of them coming after the catch. All-in-all, the Browns have allowed six wide receivers to total 14-plus fantasy points and finish as top-24 options; three of them have been slot-heavy receivers. If you drafted Smith-Schuster, you’re left playing him as a WR3 and just hoping for things to work out. Fortunately, he has the best matchup on the field this week.

Diontae Johnson and James Washington: Johnson’s taken a backseat to Washington over the last two weeks, though that shouldn’t be expected to continue this week. Johnson primarily lines up at LWR while Washington is at RWR, which means Washington should see more of Denzel Ward in coverage while Johnson gets rookie Greedy Williams. Both have been solid in coverage, allowing a combined 76.4 QB Rating in their coverage but Williams is a little less battle-tested, as he’s seen just 18 targets over his rookie season. The only three perimeter receivers who’ve finished top-24 against the Browns were Brandin Cooks who had 12 targets when both Ward/Williams were out, Jaron Brown who caught two touchdowns from Russell Wilson, and then Courtland Sutton who saw eight targets. With Mason Rudolph throwing to them, you should hardly feel confident with either of these two as safe streaming options.

Odell Beckham Jr: He’s just gone through the gauntlet of who’s who at cornerback, facing Stephon Gilmore, Chris Harris Jr, and Tre’Davious White. The Steelers aren’t shadowing any receivers this year, but rather allowing Joe Haden and Steven Nelson to simply play sides. That had worked well from Weeks 3-8, as they didn’t allow a single receiver to top 12.2 PPR points. Over the last two games, however, they allowed both Zach Pascal and Robert Woods (two perimeter-based receivers) to post 16-plus PPR points. The good news is that when Mayfield said he’d be targeting Beckham, he followed through and threw the ball his way a season-high 12 times in Week 10. That’s huge because there have been just five wide receivers to total at least eight targets against the Steelers. Their finishes were WR14, WR15, WR25, WR28, and WR33. For as much criticism Beckham has received, he’s now totaled 21 receptions for 297 yards over the last four weeks. Had he scored in any of those games, the perception would be a lot different. Plug him in as a high-end WR2 who offers a stable floor.

Jarvis Landry: Maybe it’s time to re-evaluate Landry’s role on the team? He’s now seen at least 10 targets in three straight games, totaling 20 receptions for 213 yards and two touchdowns over those games. It surely helped that Beckham had the No. 1 cornerback for the Patriots, Broncos, and Bills following him, but Landry has to get the targets and make the plays. The Steelers just shut down Cooper Kupp in the slot-heavy role for the Rams last week. Has Minkah Fitzpatrick destroyed the value in the slot? Here are the numbers with/without him on the team in slot coverage:

As you can see, they’ve been a different team with Fitzpatrick in the mix and he’s made everyone around him look better. They also don’t have a shadow cornerback who follows Beckham around, so Landry won’t benefit from his No. 2 label in this game. He’s still in the high-end WR3 mix with his recent target share, but we could see this game lean back towards Beckham.

TEs
Vance McDonald: If there’s one thing that’s abundantly clear while watching McDonald, it’s that there’s a reason the 49ers chose to deal him away; he’s just not very good. He’s a solid athlete and can make some yardage after the catch, but he’s not very good at getting open, or making plays that anyone can make. He’s now gone eight straight games without totaling more than 40 yards, and he dropped two passes in their Week 10 game against the Rams, which surely won’t help his cause to get more targets going forward. The Browns are a decent matchup for tight ends, so we’re at somewhat of a crossroads. They’ve now allowed five different tight ends finish as top-15 options against them, including three to finish top-five. It’s not due to volume, either. They’ve only faced 48 tight end targets (5.3 per game) but have allowed a massive 2.26 PPR points per target to the position, which ranks as the second-most in football behind only the Cardinals. McDonald is on the high-end TE2 streaming radar despite his lack of performance, as it’s hard to find many tight ends with a better matchup.

Ricky Seals-Jones/Demetrius Harris: It seems the tight ends are taking a backseat in the offense moving forward, as the addition of Kareem Hunt directly affects their target share, as does the fact that Jarvis Landry has seen 10-plus targets over the last three weeks. The Steelers have bled some production to the tight end position, including a eight-catch, 68-yard performance to Gerald Everett last week. Much of the production they’ve allowed has been target-based, though, as the 6.76 yards per target they’ve allowed to tight ends is one of the lowest marks in the league. You don’t want to trust a Browns tight end in this matchup, as none of them are locked into more than two targets.

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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.