Here’s a look at Week 11 fantasy football rankings from our most accurate experts so far this season. These rankings are for standard scoring fantasy football formats.
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Rank | Quarterbacks | Team | Opp | Best | Worst | Avg | Std Dev | Proj. Pts |
1 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | vs. HOU | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 23 |
2 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | at LAC | 1 | 4 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 21.1 |
3 | Deshaun Watson | HOU | at BAL | 2 | 7 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 20.3 |
4 | Dak Prescott | DAL | at DET | 2 | 5 | 3.9 | 0.7 | 20.3 |
5 | Drew Brees | NO | at TB | 2 | 8 | 4.8 | 1.1 | 20 |
6 | Josh Allen | BUF | at MIA | 3 | 8 | 6.2 | 1 | 18.8 |
7 | Tom Brady | NE | at PHI | 4 | 14 | 7.5 | 1.5 | 18.2 |
8 | Derek Carr | OAK | vs. CIN | 5 | 11 | 8.3 | 1.2 | 17.9 |
9 | Jameis Winston | TB | vs. NO | 7 | 15 | 8.8 | 1.2 | 17.4 |
10 | Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | vs. ARI | 5 | 14 | 10.4 | 1.5 | 17.3 |
11 | Matt Ryan | ATL | at CAR | 7 | 18 | 11.2 | 2.1 | 17 |
12 | Kyle Allen | CAR | vs. ATL | 9 | 14 | 11.9 | 1 | 16.7 |
13 | Philip Rivers | LAC | vs. KC | 10 | 16 | 12.4 | 1 | 16.1 |
14 | Kyler Murray | ARI | at SF | 13 | 19 | 14.2 | 1.2 | 15.9 |
15 | Kirk Cousins | MIN | vs. DEN | 9 | 18 | 15.4 | 1 | 15.7 |
16 | Jacoby Brissett | IND | vs. JAC | 9 | 19 | 15.8 | 1.5 | 15.6 |
17 | Jared Goff | LAR | vs. CHI | 15 | 23 | 16.4 | 0.8 | 15.2 |
18 | Nick Foles | JAC | at IND | 15 | 22 | 18.4 | 1 | 15 |
19 | Carson Wentz | PHI | vs. NE | 15 | 24 | 19.2 | 0.8 | 14.9 |
20 | Baker Mayfield | CLE | vs. PIT | 18 | 24 | 20.8 | 0.4 | 14.9 |
Derek Carr (OAK)
He’s been playing competently all year long, averaging a solid 7.8 yards per attempt with a 14:4 touchdown to interception ratio, though it’s only amounted to the QB19 in fantasy, right between Jared Goff and Andy Dalton. He doesn’t offer anything with his legs, which severely caps his upside, as does the fact that he’s totaled 32 pass attempts or less in each of the last six games. He’s finished as a top-12 option in just 2-of-9 games, but both of them have come in the last three weeks, so that’s something. The Bengals are a matchup that should allow him to find his way back into that top-12 conversation. They’ve allowed a massive 23.1 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks despite facing just 28.8 pass attempts per game. That doesn’t tell the whole story, as they’ve allowed a ridiculous 426 yards and three touchdowns on the ground to quarterbacks, something that doesn’t help the pocket-passer Carr. Even removing the rushing though, they’ve allowed 0.56 fantasy points per pass attempt, which ranks as the fifth-highest mark in the league. Playing at home while the Bengals travel across the country, we should see Carr become the 10th-straight quarterback finish as a top-16 option, and might be the eighth quarterback to finish as a top-12 option.
Philip Rivers (LAC)
It’s been somewhat of a nightmare season for Rivers who hasn’t thrown more than two touchdowns since way back in Week 1 and has failed to top 14.8 fantasy points in five of the last six games. The Chiefs bring an interesting matchup for him, though. Many quarterbacks have had success against them, as evidenced by the 18.9 or more fantasy points they’ve allowed to quarterbacks in 6-of-9 games. The only quarterbacks who failed to reach the top-10 have been Derek Carr (Week 2), Jacoby Brissett (Week 5), and Joe Flacco (Week 7). In the new offense, Rivers has thrown the ball just 59 times over two games, which is a far cry from the 38.1 attempts he averaged over the first eight games. The Chargers like to play a slow-paced game while the Chiefs are more about business, so this game should wind-up having a decent pace, especially if the Chiefs throw points on the board. The issue is rational coaching. How would you attack the Chiefs if you ran an NFL team? You’d play keep-away with your run-game against their horrendous run defense and try to keep Mahomes off the field, right? That could lead to another low-attempt game for Rivers, which highlights his floor. His ceiling, however, is 300-plus yards and three touchdowns while playing catch-up. He’s in the high-end QB2 conversation as someone with a few highly different outcomes.
Kirk Cousins (MIN)
He continued his solid play in Week 10, posting his fifth top-10 finish in his last six games. He’s posted a ridiculous 8.1 percent touchdown-rate since Week 5. We cannot forget that if/when his efficiency declines, we’re going to see a floor that’s lower than most. The Broncos rank third in the NFL when it comes to total fantasy points per game allowed to opponents behind only the Patriots and 49ers. Naturally, that affects the quarterback more than most, as we’ve still yet to see a top-12 finish against the Vic Fangio defense this year. In fact, 7-of-9 quarterbacks have finished outside the top 20 quarterbacks, which is quite ridiculous. There hasn’t been a quarterback who’s thrown for more than 273 yards and we’ve seen just one quarterback throw more than one touchdown. They have just a 6.1 percent sack-rate, but after not generating any the first three weeks, they’ve totaled 19 over their last six games. The Vikings should be simply looking to escape this game with a win into their bye week, which should severely limit Cousins’ pass attempts against this highly efficient defense. He’s not someone you should aim to play this week, as he’s just a middling QB2.
Carson Wentz (PHI)
It’s been a rough season for the Eagles passing game, as it seemed they made a lot of plans around DeSean Jackson, but losing him in Week 2 has dragged down the potential for everyone, and particularly Wentz. After totaling 25.0 points in the first game, he’s been held to 15.1 points or less in 4-of-8 games. He’s thrown for more than 259 yards just twice and that’s despite averaging 33.7 pass attempts per game. He’s failed to throw more than one touchdown in four of the last five games and hasn’t topped 7.6 yards per attempt since back in Week 1 with Jackson. The Patriots are clearly not the best matchup for quarterbacks, as they’ve allowed just a 54.1 percent completion-rate, 5.29 yards per attempt, and three passing touchdowns while intercepting 19 passes through nine games. The 7.4 fantasy points per game they’ve allowed to quarterbacks would rank 75th among wide receivers. Lamar Jackson raised that number quite a bit with his rushing totals, as quarterbacks have averaged just 0.19 fantasy points per pass attempt against the Patriots, while no other team has allowed less than 0.32 points per attempt. Their competition has been extremely weak and they’re due for regression and knowing that Doug Pederson has had two full weeks to prepare for this game, they should be able to put some points on the board. Still, Wentz is nothing more than a high-end QB2 in this game and should likely be more towards the middling QB2 conversation. He should make for a semi-decent tournament option in DFS, though, in case this game turns into a shootout.
Rank | Running Backs | Team | Opp | Best | Worst | Avg | Std Dev | Proj. Pts |
1 | Christian McCaffrey | CAR | vs. ATL | 1 | 3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 20.6 |
2 | Dalvin Cook | MIN | vs. DEN | 2 | 3 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 17.6 |
3 | Ezekiel Elliott | DAL | at DET | 1 | 5 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 17.2 |
4 | Josh Jacobs | OAK | vs. CIN | 1 | 6 | 3.7 | 1 | 15.7 |
5 | Leonard Fournette | JAC | at IND | 3 | 7 | 4.9 | 0.5 | 15.6 |
6 | Nick Chubb | CLE | vs. PIT | 6 | 9 | 6.7 | 0.5 | 14.9 |
7 | Melvin Gordon | LAC | vs. KC | 5 | 14 | 6.9 | 1.6 | 14.7 |
8 | Alvin Kamara | NO | at TB | 4 | 11 | 8.6 | 1.2 | 14.6 |
9 | James Conner | PIT | at CLE | 6 | 14 | 8.9 | 0.8 | 14.6 |
10 | Le’Veon Bell | NYJ | at WAS | 8 | 14 | 10.5 | 0.8 | 13.7 |
11 | Marlon Mack | IND | vs. JAC | 8 | 12 | 10.7 | 1.8 | 13.4 |
12 | Tevin Coleman | SF | vs. ARI | 7 | 16 | 11.1 | 1.2 | 12.9 |
13 | Brian Hill | ATL | at CAR | 10 | 20 | 14.1 | 1.5 | 12.6 |
14 | Damien Williams | KC | at LAC | 9 | 16 | 14.6 | 1.2 | 12.5 |
15 | Mark Ingram | BAL | vs. HOU | 12 | 18 | 14.9 | 1.7 | 12.3 |
16 | Devin Singletary | BUF | at MIA | 13 | 20 | 15.4 | 1.4 | 11.8 |
17 | Todd Gurley | LAR | vs. CHI | 11 | 22 | 17 | 1.3 | 11.3 |
18 | Joe Mixon | CIN | at OAK | 13 | 22 | 17.1 | 1.6 | 10.9 |
19 | David Montgomery | CHI | at LAR | 18 | 21 | 19.1 | 0.8 | 10.5 |
20 | Austin Ekeler | LAC | vs. KC | 16 | 25 | 20.9 | 1.8 | 10.3 |
21 | Phillip Lindsay | DEN | at MIN | 20 | 29 | 21.6 | 1.4 | 10.1 |
22 | Sony Michel | NE | at PHI | 17 | 28 | 22.6 | 2.4 | 10 |
23 | Ronald Jones II | TB | vs. NO | 19 | 28 | 22.8 | 2 | 9.9 |
24 | Jordan Howard | PHI | vs. NE | 21 | 35 | 23.4 | 2.5 | 9.6 |
25 | Carlos Hyde | HOU | at BAL | 22 | 26 | 24.1 | 0.7 | 9.5 |
26 | Kalen Ballage | MIA | vs. BUF | 20 | 33 | 27.2 | 2.2 | 9.5 |
27 | James White | NE | at PHI | 25 | 31 | 27.6 | 0.8 | 9.3 |
28 | Adrian Peterson | WAS | vs. NYJ | 26 | 40 | 29.4 | 3.4 | 9.3 |
29 | Kenyan Drake | ARI | at SF | 26 | 33 | 29.5 | 0.8 | 9.2 |
30 | Royce Freeman | DEN | at MIN | 25 | 35 | 30.4 | 1.6 | 9.1 |
31 | Kareem Hunt | CLE | vs. PIT | 27 | 37 | 31.2 | 1.8 | 8.7 |
32 | Miles Sanders | PHI | vs. NE | 25 | 36 | 31.6 | 3.1 | 8 |
33 | J.D. McKissic | DET | vs. DAL | 24 | 39 | 32.1 | 1.7 | 7.9 |
34 | David Johnson | ARI | at SF | 28 | 42 | 34.7 | 2.5 | 7.8 |
35 | Latavius Murray | NO | at TB | 25 | 39 | 35.4 | 1.7 | 7.5 |
36 | Raheem Mostert | SF | vs. ARI | 23 | 47 | 36.1 | 5.9 | 7.2 |
37 | Jaylen Samuels | PIT | at CLE | 35 | 45 | 37.4 | 0.9 | 6.9 |
38 | Frank Gore | BUF | at MIA | 32 | 41 | 37.8 | 1.7 | 6.7 |
39 | Derrius Guice | WAS | vs. NYJ | 31 | 44 | 38.6 | 2.3 | 6.4 |
40 | Duke Johnson | HOU | at BAL | 32 | 43 | 39.4 | 2.2 | 6.2 |
41 | Tarik Cohen | CHI | at LAR | 34 | 46 | 40.1 | 3.9 | 6.2 |
42 | Alexander Mattison | MIN | vs. DEN | 41 | 47 | 42.9 | 1.6 | 6.1 |
43 | Gus Edwards | BAL | vs. HOU | 39 | 52 | 43.1 | 2.4 | 6.1 |
44 | Peyton Barber | TB | vs. NO | 40 | 54 | 44.6 | 2.7 | 6 |
45 | Rex Burkhead | NE | at PHI | 41 | 51 | 45.3 | 1.8 | 6 |
46 | DeAndre Washington | OAK | vs. CIN | 43 | 66 | 47.2 | 2.4 | 5.8 |
47 | Darrel Williams | KC | at LAC | 44 | 54 | 48.6 | 1.9 | 5.7 |
48 | Nyheim Hines | IND | vs. JAC | 44 | 52 | 49.2 | 0.9 | 5.6 |
49 | Jalen Richard | OAK | vs. CIN | 45 | 58 | 52.5 | 1.8 | 5.6 |
50 | Paul Perkins | DET | vs. DAL | 44 | 59 | 52.6 | 3.5 | 5.5 |
Brian Hill (ATL)
It’s his chance to shine with the starting job, as both Devonta Freeman and Ito Smith are not going to be on the field. He racked up 21 touches in Week 10, so the Falcons clearly trust him with a big workload, as Kenjon Barner totaled just one touch. The Panthers are the best matchup in the league for running backs through 10 weeks. Sounds crazy, right? They’re allowing a touchdown every 14.1 carries while no other team has allowed one more than every 20.6 carries. They’ve now allowed 14 rushing touchdowns on the year, while allowing just 10 passing touchdowns. That has propelled running backs to average 1.06 PPR points per opportunity (carries and targets), which is easily the highest mark in the league, as the closest team (Lions) have allowed 0.98 points per opportunity. If Hill can get 20-plus touches again, he could be in for a massive week. There have now been seven running backs who’ve posted top-15 RB numbers versus this Panthers team, and another eight running backs who snuck into the top-36 (RB3/flex numbers).
Devin Singletary (BUF)
The snap disparity continued in Week 10, as Singletary led the charge playing 46 snaps to Gore’s 22 snaps. The touch count was Singletary 11, Gore 6. It still appears that Singletary is in the driver’s seat of this backfield, and Week 11 should be the true test. The Dolphins allow the sixth-most fantasy points per game to running backs, which stems from teams averaging 32.6 touches per game with their running backs. Over the last three games, the touch-split between these two has been Singletary 41, Gore 26, though the carries are much closer (31-25). They tallied just 19 touches against the Dolphins back in Week 7, though that was the only game this year running backs totaled less than 27 touches against the Dolphins. There have been 13 running backs who’ve finished as the RB26 or better against the Dolphins this year, so there’s actually room for both to succeed, though you shouldn’t bank on that. Singletary should net 15 touches in this game and be played as a low-end RB2 with upside against a team that’s allowed a healthy 4.73 yards per carry.
Ronald Jones (TB)
I’d really hoped we were done with the guessing games of this backfield, but Jones fumbling in the fourth quarter when the team was down four points should have you concerned. Nobody even touched the ball to knock it out. That happened with six-and-a-half minutes left in the game. Jones didn’t have a touch for the remainder of the game. The part that doesn’t make sense for him to get benched is that he’s yet to fumble on the other 148 touches of his NFL career. That concern combined with the brutal matchup in Week 11 is something to worry about. The Saints have allowed just 3.75 yards per carry on the season, and even less than that if you remove the few games they were without defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins to start the season. Opponents have averaged just 17.9 carries per game against the Saints, too, which is not nearly enough work for a timeshare. Some may find solace in the fact that Jones had eight targets in the game, but the Saints have not allowed much production through the air either, allowing just 4.48 yards per target. There have been just four running backs who’ve totaled more than 13.0 PPR points against the Saints, and each one totaled at least 19 touches. This is a tough matchup for any running back, let alone one who may be back in somewhat of a timeshare. Jones should be considered a risky RB3 who has a better floor than most think, as he’s scored at least 6.2 PPR points in 8-of-9 games this year, including five games with 10.3 or more points.
James White (NE)
White is interesting considering the Eagles have allowed four different running backs to rack up six or more receptions against them. The Eagles have allowed 51-of-69 passes to be completed to running backs (74 percent), so knowing that White has seen at least seven targets in five different games, we should have a rock-solid floor in PPR formats. Speaking of which, White hasn’t scored less than 11.9 PPR points all season, which is essentially low-end RB2 territory.
Week 11 Wide Receiver Rankings
Rank | Wide Receivers | Team | Opp | Best | Worst | Avg | Std Dev | Proj. Pts |
1 | Tyreek Hill | KC | at LAC | 1 | 2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 15.7 |
2 | Michael Thomas | NO | at TB | 1 | 3 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 13.9 |
3 | DeAndre Hopkins | HOU | at BAL | 2 | 7 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 13.4 |
4 | Mike Evans | TB | vs. NO | 1 | 7 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 11.9 |
5 | Julio Jones | ATL | at CAR | 3 | 7 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 11.8 |
6 | Chris Godwin | TB | vs. NO | 5 | 10 | 6.4 | 0.8 | 11.7 |
7 | Amari Cooper | DAL | at DET | 4 | 10 | 6.9 | 1 | 11.6 |
8 | Cooper Kupp | LAR | vs. CHI | 7 | 11 | 7.8 | 0.9 | 10.6 |
9 | Julian Edelman | NE | at PHI | 8 | 11 | 9.1 | 1 | 10.6 |
10 | D.J. Moore | CAR | vs. ATL | 9 | 12 | 9.6 | 0.7 | 10.2 |
11 | John Brown | BUF | at MIA | 10 | 17 | 11.5 | 1.1 | 10.1 |
12 | Keenan Allen | LAC | vs. KC | 9 | 16 | 12.1 | 1 | 9.9 |
13 | Odell Beckham Jr. | CLE | vs. PIT | 11 | 20 | 12.9 | 0.6 | 9.8 |
14 | D.J. Chark | JAC | at IND | 10 | 29 | 15.5 | 1.3 | 9.5 |
15 | Stefon Diggs | MIN | vs. DEN | 6 | 22 | 15.9 | 1 | 9.5 |
16 | Michael Gallup | DAL | at DET | 14 | 24 | 17.1 | 2.3 | 9.4 |
17 | Courtland Sutton | DEN | at MIN | 12 | 25 | 17.3 | 3.1 | 9.3 |
18 | Kenny Golladay | DET | vs. DAL | 13 | 22 | 17.9 | 1.9 | 9.2 |
19 | Curtis Samuel | CAR | vs. ATL | 14 | 22 | 19.6 | 1.2 | 9 |
20 | Allen Robinson | CHI | at LAR | 13 | 24 | 19.8 | 2 | 8.9 |
21 | Emmanuel Sanders | SF | vs. ARI | 13 | 31 | 20.9 | 3.5 | 8.8 |
22 | Marquise Brown | BAL | vs. HOU | 14 | 26 | 21.4 | 2.7 | 8.8 |
23 | Terry McLaurin | WAS | vs. NYJ | 20 | 32 | 25 | 2.6 | 8.7 |
24 | Tyrell Williams | OAK | vs. CIN | 15 | 30 | 25.4 | 1.7 | 8.7 |
25 | JuJu Smith-Schuster | PIT | at CLE | 21 | 46 | 25.9 | 3 | 8.6 |
26 | Robert Woods | LAR | vs. CHI | 23 | 33 | 26.6 | 2.4 | 8.5 |
27 | Jarvis Landry | CLE | vs. PIT | 21 | 35 | 27.6 | 2.6 | 8.4 |
28 | Calvin Ridley | ATL | at CAR | 19 | 37 | 28 | 4.6 | 8.4 |
29 | Christian Kirk | ARI | at SF | 24 | 34 | 28.8 | 2.1 | 8.3 |
30 | Mike Williams | LAC | vs. KC | 23 | 33 | 29.5 | 2.9 | 8.2 |
31 | Mohamed Sanu | NE | at PHI | 26 | 38 | 29.8 | 2.4 | 8.2 |
32 | Sammy Watkins | KC | at LAC | 18 | 34 | 30.9 | 2.4 | 8.2 |
33 | Tyler Boyd | CIN | at OAK | 19 | 35 | 31.4 | 4.2 | 8.1 |
34 | Marvin Jones | DET | vs. DAL | 17 | 36 | 32.7 | 3.2 | 7.9 |
35 | Jamison Crowder | NYJ | at WAS | 27 | 42 | 33.4 | 2.5 | 7.8 |
36 | Devante Parker | MIA | vs. BUF | 34 | 47 | 38.1 | 1.9 | 7.8 |
37 | Deebo Samuel | SF | vs. ARI | 36 | 41 | 38.1 | 1.2 | 7.7 |
38 | Zach Pascal | IND | vs. JAC | 36 | 42 | 38.9 | 1.2 | 7.5 |
39 | Dede Westbrook | JAC | at IND | 36 | 51 | 40.1 | 3 | 7.5 |
40 | Robby Anderson | NYJ | at WAS | 36 | 51 | 41.1 | 2.9 | 7.3 |
41 | Kenny Stills | HOU | at BAL | 32 | 60 | 41.4 | 4.7 | 7.2 |
42 | Auden Tate | CIN | at OAK | 38 | 49 | 42.8 | 1.8 | 7.2 |
43 | Phillip Dorsett | NE | at PHI | 41 | 53 | 45.1 | 3 | 7.1 |
44 | Larry Fitzgerald | ARI | at SF | 41 | 52 | 46.2 | 2.6 | 7 |
45 | Josh Reynolds | LAR | vs. CHI | 41 | 87 | 46.9 | 5.7 | 6.9 |
46 | Ted Ginn | NO | at TB | 43 | 61 | 48.1 | 4.3 | 6.8 |
47 | Cole Beasley | BUF | at MIA | 36 | 52 | 48.5 | 2.8 | 6.7 |
48 | Demaryius Thomas | NYJ | at WAS | 45 | 56 | 48.9 | 1.8 | 6.6 |
49 | Hunter Renfrow | OAK | vs. CIN | 39 | 53 | 49.4 | 2.6 | 6.5 |
50 | Diontae Johnson | PIT | at CLE | 47 | 60 | 49.6 | 2 | 6.5 |
51 | Russell Gage | ATL | at CAR | 48 | 59 | 52.6 | 1.9 | 6.5 |
52 | James Washington | PIT | at CLE | 45 | 62 | 53.2 | 3.2 | 6.3 |
53 | Randall Cobb | DAL | at DET | 31 | 59 | 53.3 | 3.5 | 6.2 |
54 | Chris Conley | JAC | at IND | 47 | 56 | 53.6 | 1.9 | 6.2 |
55 | Nelson Agholor | PHI | vs. NE | 46 | 64 | 57.9 | 3.4 | 6.2 |
56 | Taylor Gabriel | CHI | at LAR | 56 | 68 | 58.5 | 1.8 | 6.1 |
57 | Chester Rogers | IND | vs. JAC | 55 | 74 | 58.6 | 2.5 | 6 |
58 | Danny Amendola | DET | vs. DAL | 52 | 73 | 60.5 | 3.8 | 5.9 |
59 | Mecole Hardman | KC | at LAC | 56 | 84 | 61.8 | 8 | 5.8 |
60 | Alex Erickson | CIN | at OAK | 41 | 71 | 62 | 4.6 | 5.7 |
D.J. Moore (CAR)
What do you get when you mix a quality wide receiver who’s seeing eight-plus targets every week against the Falcons leaky secondary? It’s now been five straight games Moore has hit that number, while the Falcons have now allowed the most fantasy points per target to wide receivers. Think about how ridiculous the 2.18 PPR points per target they’re allowing is… To an average receiver, eight targets would amount to 17.4 PPR points, which is typically enough to get close to WR1 territory. Moore is far from average and is overdue for some positive touchdown regression. He’s now posted back-to-back 100-yard games and hasn’t finished with less than five catches since back in Week 4. It seems the Falcons may get Desmond Trufant back this week, but he’d been horrendous in coverage this year before being pulled for injury. Even if he did return, it wouldn’t affect Moore too much, as he lines up on Isaiah Oliver‘s side of the field 60 percent of the time. Oliver has allowed a 72.2 percent catch-rate in his coverage and has allowed nearly 10.0 yards per target. Moore has the looks of someone teetering on the WR1 conversation this week.
D.J. Chark (JAC)
We don’t know how the move to Foles will be for Chark, which leaves us in a state of limbo. Chark’s role has certainly grown since the four-target one that he had back in Week 1, as he’s averaged 8.3 targets in the eight games since. The Colts are not a team to look for big plays against, but rather one to look for targets. They’ve allowed a 69.4 percent completion-rate to receviers, which has led to them allowing a very-high 9.13 yards per target (7th-highest in NFL). They’ve played against just six receivers who’ve seen at least seven targets, and all of them finished with at least 11.9 PPR points and a top-36 finish. They have been without Pierre Desir since Week 7 due to a hamstring injury, and though he’s supposed to return soon (maybe this game), he may be doing so at less-than-100-percent. The Colts have also been without Quincy Wilson since that time, though he may have lost his job to rookie Rock Ya-Sin during that time. There are a lot of moving parts on the Colts, but the primary thing is that they don’t travel with receivers, so the Jaguars can pick their matchups. The move to Foles is one to monitor, but Chark should be played as a low-end WR2 in this game.
Marquise Brown (BAL)
When playing a receiver like Brown, you have to understand the limitations of the offense. Jackson has averaged just 28.3 pass attempts per game, so even if Brown had totaled a 25 percent target share, he’d average a mediocre 7.1 targets per game. He’s now tallied five or less targets in each of the last three games he’s played, which limits the safety of playing him. The good news is that he’s been rather effective with his targets, averaging 9.7 yards per target and a touchdown every 11.8 targets. The Texans just happen to be a matchup to target with wide receivers, as they’ve allowed a massive 41.5 PPR points per game to the position. There’s been plenty of volume, sure, but on a per-target basis, they’ve allowed 1.88 points per target, which ranks as the eighth-highest mark in the league. They have been dealing with plenty of injuries, but even two of their three starting cornerbacks would be considered backups on most teams. The average top-24 receiver performance last year took 14.9 PPR points. That’s a number 11 receivers have hit against the Texans, which is the most in the NFL. Brown is the only logical choice on the Ravens, so get him into lineups as a high-end WR3 this week who comes with plenty of upside.
Mohamed Sanu (NE)
After seeing just five targets in his first Patriots game, Sanu got up to speed and saw a ridiculously high 14 targets in his second game. He totaled 10/81/1 in a tough matchup against the Ravens, so this game should come a bit easier to him. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s had another two weeks to learn the offense and develop chemistry with Brady. The Eagles did get Ronald Darby back in Week 8, and have Jalen Mills on the other side, so this secondary has been going through some changes. That duo has allowed 29-of-46 passing for 356 yards and two touchdowns in their coverage, and that’s who Sanu will see about 60 percent of the time. The Eagles have been bleeding fantasy points on the perimeter, as the top eight wide receiver performances against them have been by primary-perimeter players. Knowing that combined with the fact that Sanu saw 14 targets in his second game with the team, Sanu should be in lineups as a WR3.
Rank | Tight Ends | Team | Opp | Best | Worst | Avg | Std Dev | Proj. Pts |
1 | Travis Kelce | KC | at LAC | 1 | 3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 10.3 |
2 | Hunter Henry | LAC | vs. KC | 1 | 3 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 10.2 |
3 | Mark Andrews | BAL | vs. HOU | 2 | 5 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 8.5 |
4 | Darren Waller | OAK | vs. CIN | 2 | 5 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 8 |
5 | Jared Cook | NO | at TB | 4 | 8 | 5.8 | 1.4 | 7.6 |
6 | Zach Ertz | PHI | vs. NE | 6 | 8 | 6.1 | 0.3 | 6.7 |
7 | Greg Olsen | CAR | vs. ATL | 5 | 7 | 6.2 | 0.9 | 6.3 |
8 | Gerald Everett | LAR | vs. CHI | 6 | 14 | 8 | 0.7 | 6.3 |
9 | Eric Ebron | IND | vs. JAC | 8 | 11 | 9 | 0 | 5.7 |
10 | O.J. Howard | TB | vs. NO | 10 | 21 | 10.2 | 0.4 | 5.7 |
11 | Jack Doyle | IND | vs. JAC | 9 | 21 | 11.1 | 0.9 | 5.3 |
12 | Vance McDonald | PIT | at CLE | 11 | 22 | 13 | 1.9 | 5.2 |
13 | Kyle Rudolph | MIN | vs. DEN | 12 | 21 | 14.8 | 1.7 | 5.1 |
14 | T.J. Hockenson | DET | vs. DAL | 12 | 18 | 15 | 1.9 | 5 |
15 | Noah Fant | DEN | at MIN | 10 | 19 | 15.6 | 2.2 | 4.8 |
16 | Dallas Goedert | PHI | vs. NE | 12 | 23 | 15.8 | 2.7 | 4.7 |
17 | Darren Fells | HOU | at BAL | 13 | 20 | 16.4 | 2 | 4.5 |
18 | Jason Witten | DAL | at DET | 9 | 21 | 17.1 | 2 | 4.3 |
19 | Mike Gesicki | MIA | vs. BUF | 15 | 20 | 17.9 | 1.5 | 4.3 |
20 | Tyler Eifert | CIN | at OAK | 12 | 24 | 19.1 | 2 | 4.1 |
Jared Cook (NO)
It was surprising to see Cook tally a season-high 10 targets last week against the Falcons. He also topped 41 yards for the first time in his Saints career, which is a nice confidence boost as he enters one of the best matchups he could ask for with the Bucs. Most of the production that would typically go to running backs has gone to tight ends, as they’ve accumulated 9.3 targets per game against the Bucs, amounting to 18.2 PPR points per game. Only the Cardinals have allowed more fantasy points to tight ends. This is a fun stat: the Bucs have played nine games this year. The only tight end not to finish as a top-14 option against them was Maxx Williams. Cook deserves to be in lineups as a TE1 after seeing 10 targets, so when you toss in the matchup, it’s icing on the cake.
Eric Ebron (IND)
In the first game without both T.Y. Hilton, Parris Campbell, and Deon Cain, the Colts heavily utilized their tight ends, targeting them a massive 17 times against the Dolphins. Ebron led the charge with a season-high 12 targets, so he’s obviously the one who benefits most from their absence. Ebron also ran a season-high 33 routes, so the targets shouldn’t be a fluke. While he’s unlikely to see 12 targets again, he’s clearly a must-play with volume like that. The Jaguars have allowed a mediocre 7.71 yards per target to tight ends this year, but they’re allowing a touchdown to them every 10.2 targets, which is the fourth-most often in the league. Ebron himself has scored a touchdown every 9.6 targets since he put on a Colts jersey, so it aligns very well. He should be played as a sturdy TE1 as long as Hilton and Campbell are out.
T.J. Hockenson (DET)
Despite missing Stafford last week, Hockenson posted 47 yards, which was his third-highest total on the season. If there’s someone who doesn’t lose a lot of value with Stafford out, it’s him. The Cowboys have been a great matchup for tight ends, as they’ve allowed the third-most points per game to the position. They’ve had plenty of volume, as teams have targeted their tight ends an average of 8.9 times per game. Hockenson is the only one who sees meaningful targets for the Lions, as he’s totaled 63 percent of the targets among tight ends. It also doesn’t hurt that Hockenson has seen five-plus targets in four of the last give games. It’s only a matter of time before those targets amount to yards. Given the 72.5 percent completion-rate the Cowboys are allowing to tight ends, it just might be this week. Consider him a low-end TE1 who’s trending up.
Darren Fells (HOU)
There are some fantasy players who are production-based. They’ll look at the fantasy points a player has scored and nothing more. If you do that with Fells, you’ll see he’s tallied 7.1 or more PPR points in five of his last seven games, including four games with 12.9 or more points. When you look a bit closer, you’ll see that he’s totaled three or less targets in 6-of-9 games this year. There’s not a tight end in the league who can sustain production with that little of volume. The Ravens haven’t allowed much tight end production this year (8th fewest points per game) but a lot of that has been due to a lack of volume, as they’ve faced just 49 tight end targets all season. When targeted, they allow a healthy 7.98 yards per target, which is above the league average. The issue is the lack of touchdowns (two of them), which is where Fells makes his mark in fantasy. Knowing it’s a tough matchup where he succeeds most, combined with the fact that Jordan Akins eats into his snap-share, and you have yourself just a middling TE2.
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