Last year in Week 15, Robert Foster scored 20 fantasy points while Antonio Callaway outscored Antonio Brown and Amari Cooper. Over at running back, Wendell Smallwood and Kalen Ballage were both RB1s while Ezekiel Elliott, Nick Chubb and Leonard Fournette combined for fewer points than some random backup running back named Damien Williams.
The point is that while everything you are about to read may seem crazy, this is a league where crazy things happen every week. I am merely trying to forecast which scenarios are possible in advance like last week when we hyped up Devonta Freeman, Zach Pascal and A.J. Brown.
I’ll be posting this article every Saturday, and while these are all players I feel strongly about for the week, these are not my projections by any means. Rather, a bold prediction is something that most people would say has less than 10% chance of happening, but I’ll give it two or even three times better odds. So perhaps use one of these guys in a DFS GPP or if you need help breaking a tie on a start/sit decision.
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#1 Baker Mayfield will be a top 5 fantasy QB
Yeah, Baker is struggling this season and he has a hand injury. Forget Baker, though, really. This isn’t about him much at all. It has to do with the opponent he’ll be facing. Arizona is quite literally the worst pass defense in the history of fantasy football. At least, that is what they are on pace for this year. Think of this way, if Derek Carr or Jacoby Brissett was playing Arizona, we’d all be rushing to start them, so it should, of course, also be the case for a talent like Mayfield who happens to have four strong pass-catchers.
Final Prediction: 27/39, 331 yards, 4 TDs, 1 INT, 1 rush, 2 yds
#2 Marlon Mack will finish among the top 12 RBs
Ever since Sheldon Rankins came back for New Orleans, the run defense has gone from mediocre to extraordinary. But now, Rankins has been ruled out for the season. Not only that, but Marcus Davenport is out, Kiko Alonso, Vonn Bell and Patrick Robinson haven’t been practicing. Heck, A.J. Klein and Cameron Jordan are even banged up. It’s no wonder the 49ers put up a 48 spot on the last week considering half their defense is gone. The Colts should succeed this week as well, and now that Mack is eased back into the offense, he could explode.
Final Prediction: 20 carries, 109 yards, 2 TDs
#3 Chris Thompson will end up as a top 24 RB
Yes, it has been the Adrian Peterson and Derris Guice show of late, but really, did you expect anything different the last three weeks versus run-funnel defenses? Everyone runs the heck out of the ball against Carolina, Green Bay and Detroit but this week, it should be the extreme opposite. You can’t run against Philly but it is easy to have success through the air. Add in a useful script and Thompson should have no trouble replicating the 8 targets he saw last week. What’s more, is that he has big-play ability any time he touches the ball.
Final Prediction: 1 carry, 3 yards, 8 receptions, 95 yards, 1 TD
#4 Greg Ward will be a top 30 wide receiver
We know Alshon Jeffery is out for the season and now Nelson Agholor has been ruled out for the game as well. Whether or not Ward actually starts is one thing, but you can be sure he’ll play the majority of the game either way. Last week, he had 9 targets officially, but it was actually 12, as three of them were canceled out because of penalties. In fact, had it not be for that, we’d all be clamoring for Ward as a hot play this week because he would have put up 15+ fantasy points. I’m expecting something similar this week against Washington.
Final Prediction: 8 targets, 6 receptions, 72 yards, 1 TD
#5 Danny Amendola will finish as a top 24 wideout
With Marvin Jones, T.J. Hockenson and Kerryon Johnson out, you can bet your bottom dollar that Amendola will be seeing 8+ targets. Considering Tampa will be putting pressure on a weak-armed David Blough, Amendola’s skill for finding openings in the defense when a play breaks down should come in handy. Then, there is the fact that Tampa is one of the worst two or three secondaries in all of football so all of these targets count for even more than usual.
Final Prediction: 11 targets, 7 receptions, 83 yards, 1 TD
The Other Half
#6 Aaron Rodgers won’t be a top 20 fantasy QB (Bad matchup vs CHI and fewer QB1 weeks than outside top 20 weeks)
Final Prediction: 20/31, 206 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 3 carries, 17 yards
#7 Ronald Jones will finish inside the top 15 RBs (Evans out, Winston banged up and excellent matchup vs DET)
Final Prediction: 15 carries, 82 yards, 2 TDs, 2 receptions, 11 yards
#8 Keelan Cole will receive for 100+ yards (D.J. Chark is out + killer matchup vs OAK
Final Prediction: 5 targets, 3 receptions, 108 yards, 1 TD
#9 Allen Hurns will be a top 24 wideout (Devante Parker might not play + great matchup vs NYG)
Final Prediction: 8 targets, 6 receptions, 65 yards, 1 TD
#10 Russell Gage will finish among the top 30 wideouts (Calvin Ridley out + SF defense banged up)
Final Prediction: 9 targets, 5 receptions, 52 yards, 1 TD
Thanks for reading and happy football season!
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