10 Bold Predictions for Week 16 Fantasy Football
Last year in Week 16, Jamaal Williams was the RB1. C.J. Anderson, Elijah McGuire and Darren Sproles joined him in the top eight at the position. Over at wide receiver, Nelson Agholor and Mohamed Sanu outscored DeAndre Hopkins, Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Odell Beckham and Julio Jones. Likewise, Nick Foles was a top-three QB while C.J. Uzomah, MyCole Pruitt, Ed Dickson, Darren Fells and Scott Simonson were all top 12 fantasy tight ends.
The point is that while everything you are about to read may seem crazy, this is a league where crazy things happen every week. I am merely trying to forecast which scenarios are possible in advance like last week when we hyped up Greg Ward and Danny Amendola.
I’ll be posting this article every Saturday, and while these are all players I feel strongly about for the week, these are not my projections by any means. Rather, a bold prediction is something that most people would say has less than 10% chance of happening, but I’ll give it two or even three times better odds. So perhaps use one of these guys in a DFS GPP or if you need help breaking a tie on a start/sit decision.
#1 Kyler Murray will finish as a top three QB
Look, I get it; since the bye, Kyler just hasn’t been the same with just 14, 13 and 17 fantasy points in those three weeks. He was great on the ground last week, though with 56 yards compared to the 2 he has the week before when dealing with the hammy injury so it’s fair to say he seems healed up. And all though he has another fairly difficult matchup this week, let’s not forget that he went for 50 fantasy points in the two games versus San Francisco this year. He can breakout for a huge performance in any game any week.
Final Prediction: 27/36, 321 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 8 carries, 64 yards, 1 TD
#2 Mike Boone will be a top three running back
I know, I know, he’s my dude, so of course, I’m high on him, right? He is my guy because of how talented he is and I’m certainly not alone. Evan Silva, Matt Kelley and Paul Charchian have all been on board this season too. Forget the name, forget that I’ve touted Boone and just hear this. Dalvin Cook has been ruled out, Alexander Mattison has been limited at practice and is unlikely to play. Boone saw 70% of the touches after Cook was injured last week and although there were no targets, Boone has great in the passing game this preseason so with a full week practicing with the first team, Boone should return to passing game involvement. So we’ve got 20+ touches likely in a great running scheme with an extraordinary athlete against a weak run defense in Green Bay. You have to start him, friends.
Final Prediction: 22 carries, 118 yards, 2 TDs, 3 receptions, 22 yards
#3 Adrian Peterson will rush for over 100 yards
Before Derrius Guice came back from injury, AP was on a terror with 136 (@MIA), 81 (vs SF), 103 (@MIN) and 130 (@BUF) yards in the prior four games. He has been running great lately too, but hasn’t seen quite as many carries because of Guice, then last week with Guice out, the matchup just didn’t line up for a return to big performances. This week, he’s got the matchup, he has the backfield all to himself and the game script could prove perfect versus the Giants. AP is still running great and with a big workload likely in a good matchup, he should smash.
Final Prediction: 22 carries, 111 yards, 1 TD, 2 receptions, 4 yards
#4 Kenny Golladay won’t end up in the top 36 wideouts
Don’t hear me wrong; Golladay is a great player who has continued to put up big numbers even with Matthew Stafford going down. This week, though, he isn’t taking on a lackluster Vikings or Bucs secondary, nor is he playing a Bears defense on just four days rest. He’ll be covered by Chris Harris Jr. who is very likely a top-three corner in all of football. When you add that to the mix with David Blough and just 21 receptions over the previous 6 games, the full picture doesn’t look very promising.
Final Prediction: 6 targets, 3 receptions, 38 yards
#5 Curtis Samuel will finish among the top 25 receivers
D.J. Moore is the lead dog and everyone knows that, but that was with Kyle Allen. Last year with Cam, it was virtually a 1A, 2A type of situation, and that isn’t to say Moore can’t be a star, but Samuel might be right on his tail if he is again afforded the targets. Now that Will Grier is taking over, everything is up in the air and it would no surprise at all if the very talented Samuel had his biggest target share of the season this week against a struggling Colts secondary.
Final Prediction: 10 targets, 6 receptions, 82 yards, 1 TD
The Other Half
#6 Andy Dalton will end up among the top 10 QBs (40+ pass attempts likely vs MIA’s secondary)
Final Prediction: 30/47, 301 yards, 3 TDs, 2 Ints, 2 carries, 5 yards
#7 Tyler Higbee won’t be a top 12 tight end (San Francisco crushes tight ends)
Final Prediction: 7 targets, 4 receptions, 38 yards
#8 Anthony Miller will finish as a top 20 wideout (2nd in NFL with 53 targets since joining starting lineup)
Final Prediction: 10 targets, 6 receptions, 71 yards, 1 TD
#9 The Giants will end up in the top 5 D/STs (Playing much better lately + Dwayne Haskins
Final Prediction: 17 points allowed, 4 sacks, 2 interceptions, 2 fumbles
#10 Denver will be the week’s top D/ST (34 sacks since Week 4 + David Blough)
Final Prediction: 13 points allowed, 5 sacks, 3 interceptions, 1 fumble recovery, 1 TD
Thanks for reading and happy football season!