The fantasy football playoffs have arrived! It’s Week 14, so it’s all or nothing, meaning that you will need to set your perfect lineup this week. If you’re not competing in your league’s fantasy playoffs, no worries, these tidbits can be just as useful for daily fantasy this weekend.
Below, I have five tidbits for Week 14 than can provide a bit of insight and clarity for this slate. They can be useful for projecting value, both good and bad, for season-long or daily fantasy. All ranks and fantasy points take half-PPR scoring into account.
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Welcome back to fantasy relevance, Robby Anderson.
It has been a rough season to own Robby Anderson. He was dropped in many leagues, for good reasons, but you should make sure that he is owned — and possibly started — in Week 14. Despite the Jets looking terrible last week, Anderson caught seven passes for 101 yards. In Week 12, Anderson caught four passes for 86 yards and a touchdown. The week before that was quiet, but his only catch went for a touchdown. He ranks as WR17 over the past three weeks, and there’s no sign of him slowing down in Week 14.
This week, Anderson and the Jets face the Miami Dolphins. Miami has surrendered the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. Last week, they allowed Alshon Jeffery to catch nine passes for 137 yards and a touchdown in an outside receiver role, a similar role to what Anderson plays for the Jets. The Dolphins’ offense is also getting carried by the big brain and arm of Ryan Fitzpatrick, which should keep the pressure on the Jets to pass the ball, making Anderson a starting-level option at receiver this week.
DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki continue to be productive, making them solid starts against the New York Jets.
Speaking of the big brain and arm of Fitzpatrick, he has brought some magic to South Beach, providing enough offense to produce two reliable fantasy options on this Miami team. The first is DeVante Parker, who has been one of the most consistent and undervalued wide receivers this season. He has put up 55+ receiving yards in nine of the last 10 games. Since Preston Williams was injured, Parker has seen even more attention from Fitzpatrick. Parker has seen double-digit targets in each of his previous four games, resulting in 25 catches for 454 yards and two touchdowns, ranking as the WR4 over this span. He faces the Jets this week, who have given up the ninth-most fantasy points to receivers this season. In his first matchup with them, he caught four passes for 57 yards and a touchdown.
The other pass-catcher to benefit from the depleted Miami offense is tight end Mike Gesicki. The second-year, second-round player is finally showing why he was drafted so high. He has seen at least six targets in each of the past five games. This has resulted in him catching 21 passes for 248 yards and two touchdowns, and he ranks as the TE6 over this span. Gesicki has also caught touchdowns in back-to-back games, which has made him a big part of the Dolphins’ offensive success. In the first matchup against the Jets, Gesicki caught six passes for 95 yards, showing his upside in this week’s matchup.
Alshon Jeffery is back and healthy.
Alshon Jeffery played Sunday for the first time in a month, and he went off. Facing the aforementioned Miami Dolphins, he caught 9-of-16 targets for 137 yards and a touchdown. With the Philadelphia Eagles fighting to stay alive in the NFC East race, Alshon will look to play at the level he started the season at, averaging 14.4 fantasy points over his first four games (excluding Week 2 when he played six total snaps).
This week, he gets a great matchup against the New York Giants. He is expected to spend most of his time against Janoris Jenkins, which is a 33 percent matchup advantage (third-best of the week), according to Pro Football Focus. However, he will also spend a lot of time against Deandre Baker, who has the second-worst grade among cornerbacks that have played at least 20 percent of the season snaps. As a full unit, the Giants have surrendered the second-most fantasy points to opposing receivers. They have allowed at least one WR to score 16+ fantasy points in each of the past five weeks (Kenny Golladay, Amari Cooper, Jamison Crowder, Allen Robinson, Davante Adams, and Allen Lazard).
Start Jeffery with confidence in the fantasy playoffs.
James Washington is finally breaking out for the Steelers.
There were high expectations placed on James Washington this season, and he has finally begun to meet them. First, Washington was pushed off the field for Donte Moncrief, because Ben Roethlisberger liked him more. Once Ben was gone, so was Moncrief, but it was Diontae Johnson who stepped up. Now, thanks to some injuries that have opened up snaps and targets, Washington is performing like the player that we saw in the preseason.
Washington has totaled 90+ receiving yards in three of the last four games, catching a touchdown in each of the three performances as well. As you can imagine, he has been a top receiver over this stretch, and he ranks as the WR8 over this span. With Devlin Hodges at quarterback in a great matchup this week, Washington’s strong play should continue.
The Steelers face the Arizona Cardinals, and Washington is set up to take on Patrick Peterson. While this may initially seem bad, Peterson’s name is the scariest thing about him this season. Washington has an 18 percent matchup advantage this week, which is the 10th-best among WRs. To explain just how good of a matchup this is, we only need to take a look back to last weekend. Peterson gave up four catches for 64 yards to Robert Woods. On the entire day, Peterson allowed a 100 percent catch rate, allowing 83 yards and a touchdown. This is a spot that Washington is capable of smashing.
As temperatures begin to dip, Derrick Henry rights the ship.
Sorry, the rest of this tidbit while not be rhyming. However, it will be just as impressive as watching the ginormous Derrick Henry break off a long run.
In 30 career games played in September and October, Henry averages just 3.87 yards per carry. In 29 career games played in November, December, and January, Henry averages 5.48 yards per carry, which is a 42 percent improvement in his efficiency. While these three months make up only about half of the running back’s games, he has scored 72 percent of his touchdowns during these months.
Whether this is by circumstance or not, it makes sense that a physical runner like Henry would be more effective in colder weather for a couple of reasons. First, it can be tougher to tackle and stop the run in the snow and cold weather overall. Second, the bruiser is facing defenses that may be broken down or depleted because of injury at this point in the season, which is a benefit to the more physical man and team.
Anyways, November was another hot month for Henry. He has averaged at least 4.85 yards per carry in each game since the start of November, and he has totaled at least 149 rushing yards in each of the last three games. Aside from the high yardage output, Henry has also scored seven touchdowns in his previous four games. He ranks as the top running back in average fantasy points over the past five weeks at 26.4. Yes, even higher than Christian McCaffrey.
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Zach Brunner is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Zach, follow him @fantasyflurry.
