Analyzing Vegas Odds: Week 14 (2019)
Analyzing Vegas’ odds when making DFS lineup decisions is a helpful tool every player should take advantage of. A higher over/under total means Vegas has projected more scoring for a particular contest, and scoring is very often conducive to fantasy points. There are of course many other variables that DFS players should consider when deciding on who to deploy in their lineups, but it is important to utilize all the tools at one’s disposal This week we will take a look at the two matchups with the highest totals on the main slate.
|Date||Favorite||Spread||Underdog||Total||Away Moneyline||Home Moneyline|
|Sunday, 12/8||at New England||-3||Kansas City||48.5||+140||-175|
Patrick Mahomes has been a bit of a disappointment in recent weeks. The QB10 overall despite missing two weeks of action, Mahomes is the QB5 on a per-game basis. He has thrown double-digit touchdowns just once in the three games since he returned from injury. With a brutal matchup and the price tag you will have to pay to insert him in your lineup, he is not worth the single entry risk despite his upside. Multiple entry heads should note that the Patriots, as lauded as they have been defensively this season, have allowed a QB3 outing to Lamar Jackson, and a QB2 performance to Deshaun Watson.
Tom Brady has become a strong fade on a week to week basis in DFS. Brady has thrown double-digit touchdowns just twice in his last seven contests. The plus matchup against the Chiefs is not even enough to merit single entry consideration. The Mohamed Sanu experiment has been a failure, and his rookie receivers have yet to become consistent enough to give Brady a true number two option out wide.
Luckily for Tom Brady, he has a running back named James White who he often leans on as his number two target. White was fantastic against the Texans in Week 14 and should have the game flow and role to have another big week against the Kansas City Chiefs. White is always a boom or bust DFS option, but depending on which way you see this matchup going, he could have a big night for the second week in a row. Sony Michel is always worth a multiple entry look due to his touchdown upside. However, when he is not finding paydirt he offers little upside. Michel has not scored since his Week 7 outburst against the New York Jets.
With so much uncertainty regarding the healthy of Damien and Darrel Williams, the Chiefs backfield picture is currently a mess. If Darrel and Damien both sit out Week 14, both LeSean McCoy and Darwin Thompson warrant single lineup consideration. The backfield split will be impossible to predict, but with only two backs expected to be heavily involved, they would both offer significant upside despite the tough matchup. However, if Darrel or Damien, or both are active, this will be a backfield to avoid entirely.
Tyreek Hill is the only Chiefs receiver worth trusting this season, and that has been the case for not only DFS but for season-long formats as well. Hill is the WR11 in average fantasy points per game this season. He has had some forgettable outings this season, and with Stephon Gilmore expected to travel with Hill this weekend, this may be a week to consider other options. With that being said, those looking for a contrarian play will remember that Hill exploded for seven receptions, 142 receiving yards, and three touchdowns against the Patriots in Week 6 of last season. It is important to remember that he posted just 42 yards off one reception when these two teams met in the 2018 playoffs.
As mentioned above, and much like we have seen with the Chiefs, there is only one Patriots receiver worth trusting. Julian Edelman is the WR8 in both average and total fantasy points this season. He has been consistent for most of the season and will be needed in what Vegas has projected as a high scoring affair against the Chiefs. Despite the price tag, he warrants strong consideration for this weekend’s contests. For those looking for a multiple entry dart throw in a high total contest, Jakobi Meyers should pique interest. He was third on the team in Week 13 targets and saw 70 percent of the snaps. This could have easily been due to Mohamed Sanu playing at less than 100 percent, so while there is upside, the floor is lineup killing.
At tight end the New England Patriots have no one worth mentioning, so we will get that out of the way before touching on Travis Kelce. Kelce has at least five receptions, 90 receiving yards, and/or a touchdown in each game since Patrick Mahomes returned to the lineup. He is the elite tight end play of the week, but of course, is priced like it.
|Date||Favorite||Spread||Underdog||Total||Away Moneyline||Home Moneyline|
|Sunday, 12/8||at Tampa Bay||-3||Indianapolis||47.5||+130||–152|
Jameis Winston disappointed in Week 13, but is still a strong Week 14 option. He was held under 300 passing yards for the first time in six games and threw zero touchdowns for the first time all season. He has what appears to be a soft matchup against an Indianapolis Colts defense that has relinquished 307.75 passing yards and 1.75 touchdowns per game to the QB1’s they have faced this season, and is an attractive option for those wishing to chase the high total for this contest. Jacoby Brissett is a strong fade despite the wonderful matchup. He has just two touchdowns to three interceptions over his last four full starts. His last multi-touchdown game came in Week 7.
The backfields for these two teams should be avoided. After back to back 100 rushing yard performances, Jonathan Williams mustered just 14 rushing yards on his eight Week 13 carries, and took a backseat to Jordan Wilkins (11-47). With Nyheim Hines always lurking to steal targets and snaps (he led Colts backfield with 31 Week 13 snaps), this is a situation to avoid. Ronald Jones was sent to the doghouse in Week 13, leaving replacement level Peyton Barber to plunge into the end zone on another inefficient day (17-44). There are too many other backs to consider before DFS players start sniffing around the Buccaneers backfield. Avoid.
The Colts look like a tremendous matchup for WR3 Mike Evans and WR2 Chris Godwin. The Colts have surrendered an incredible 7.75 receptions, 108 receiving yards, and 1.5 touchdowns per game to the WR1’s they faced this season. Both receivers warrant strong consideration for this weekend’s contests.
The Colts wide receiver corps is an unmitigated, injury-ravaged disaster. Head coach Frank Reich offered no guarantee that T.Y. Hilton would return this season, Parris Campbell is still out with his hand injury, Devin Funchess is looking unlikely to be activated by the December 4th deadline, and Chester Rogers is expected to be out for the season with a fractured knee. This means Zach Pascal, Marcus Johnson, and Ashton Dulin are the Colts top three healthy receivers. Pascal is lineup worthy after a strong 7-109 Week 13 line. He will be the team’s top target and has a terrific matchup against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers allowing the most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position. Ashton Dulin has some intriguing talent, but with just one NFL reception to his name, he is nothing more than a multiple entry dart throw.
Jack Doyle is a solid DFS option for this weekend’s contests. Eric Ebron is expected to be sidelined once again with his ankle injuries, which should leave Doyle as one of Brissett’s top targets for the second week in a row (he led the team with 11 in Week 13). O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate cannot be trusted in the Buccaneers offense. Howard tied for second on the team in Week 13 targets but has been too inconsistent to consider for those opting for just a single entry. Howard played 83 percent of the snaps against Jacksonville, leaving Brate as a non-option for Week 14.