DraftKings NFL GPP Lineup Advice: Week 16 (2019)
If you love big-play wideouts, my suggested plays for DraftKings GPPs are right in your wheelhouse. A trio of vertical threats at wide receiver makes up the five touted plays this week. One is part of a two-man stack with his chance-taking signal-caller. Another is paired in a loosely correlated teammate combination with a workhorse back. The last one kicks the plays off below as a standalone option in a tantalizing matchup.
Courtland Sutton (WR – DEN): $6,200 vs. Lions
Sutton has made a massive leap in his sophomore season, and he’s already cleared the 1,000-yard threshold. He’s averaging 72.8 receiving yards per game and 4.5 receptions per game with a half-dozen touchdowns, per Pro-Football-Reference. Making his production all the more impressive is that it’s come with three different quarterbacks, Joe Flacco, Brandon Allen, and rookie Drew Lock. Lock’s big arm seemingly pair well with Sutton’s ability to get downfield, and in last week’s snowy conditions in Kansas City, Sutton set a new single-game high this year with 10 targets.
In two of three games with Lock starting, Sutton’s surpassed 70 receiving yards, and he’s caught four or more passes in each game. In the one game he failed to eclipse that mark, he tallied only a 5-34-0 line on seven targets — but that was in a blowout win over the Texans. The Broncos raced out to a big lead and didn’t need to keep their foot on the accelerator, and Lock attempted only 27 passes in the victory.
The Broncos are 6.5-point favorites at home against the visiting Lions per the BettingPros consensus line. With that in mind, there’s some risk that the Broncos could get out to a big lead and keep the ball on the ground. That said, there’s also a decent chance that if the Broncos do lead early, Sutton had a hand in doing so in a drool-inducing matchup.
Football Outsiders (FO) ranks the Lions 29th in pass defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). As a bonus, they’re getting crushed by big plays, and Sutton’s usage is perfect for this matchup. Since Week 9, the Lions have coughed up the highest average explosive pass rate at 14%, according to Sharp Football Stats. Sutton’s average depth of target this year is 11.9 yards downfield, the 32nd-deepest depth of target among receivers and tight ends targeted at least 50 times, per Sports Info Solutions. Sutton is fully capable of torching a Lions defense that’s tied for the second-most DraftKings points per game this year.
Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB – MIA): $6,000 vs. Bengals
DeVante Parker (WR – MIA): $6,800 vs. Bengals
Speaking of favorable matchups, Fitzmagic and his trusty No. 1 receiver, Parker, square off with a hapless Bengals squad that FO ranks 27th in pass defense DVOA. Of late, they’ve also gotten torched by big plays in the passing game. Since Week 9, they’re tied for the fifth-highest average explosive pass rate at 11%.
Fitz is a deep-ball slinger, and among quarterbacks who’ve attempted at least 300 passes this year, his average throw depth of 8.5 yards is tied for the fifth-deepest, per Sports Info Solutions. When he’s chucking it deep, Parker’s frequently the apple of his eye. Among receivers and tight ends targeted at least 50 times this year, Parker’s average depth of target of 13.3 yards is 19th deepest. This duo looks built to pummel the Bengals.
That said, Parker’s more than just a volatile deep-ball threat. Since undrafted rookie wideout Preston Williams suffered a season-ending injury late in Week 9 against the Jets, Parker’s emerged as a target hog with blowup games. Among receivers in the last seven games, he ranks tied for 11th in targets (50), tied for 10th in receptions (31), fourth in receiving yards (554), and tied for second in receiving touchdowns (four). Parker’s a high-upside standalone play, but I also love him in a stack.
Melvin Gordon (RB – LAC): $5,600 vs. Raiders
Mike Williams (WR – LAC): $5,000 vs. Raiders
This duo getting featured together is primarily a product of both being strong plays, but there is some loose correlation potential. Gordon could benefit from extra lead-protecting carries if he and/or Williams can push the 7-point favored host Chargers out to a big lead against the visiting Raiders. However, that loose correlation potential is more of an afterthought than a reason for using these two together.
Both players benefit from a soft matchup, and the Chargers’ implied total of 26 points is a fantasy-friendly number for pieces of the offense. Circling back to the soft matchup, FO ranks the Raiders 26th in run defense DVOA and 31st in pass defense DVOA. The Raiders’ defense is crumbling in the second half of the season, and they’re getting gouged for huge gains on the ground and through the air. Since Week 9, they’re tied for the highest average explosive run rate allowed at 16%, and they’re allowing the second-highest average explosive pass rate at 13%.
The game script projects to be favorable for Gordon, and he’s no stranger to being used as a workhorse. He’s touched the ball 17 or more times in six of 10 games played this year, and he’s bested 20 touches three times. It took him a few games to shake off his holdout rust, but he’s played well since Week 9. Over the last seven weeks, Gordon ranks 19th in yards from scrimmage (481) and tied for 19th in touchdowns (four).
As for Williams, he’s not only the biggest deep threat in this piece, and he’s also the leader in average depth of target among receivers and tight ends targeted at least 50 times with an eye-popping average depth of 17.3 yards. The next closest mark is 15.7 yards sported by Robby Anderson. Receivers have barbecued Oakland’s defense for an average of 15.65 yards per reception. This is the dreamiest imaginable matchup for Williams’ skill-set and usage.
When these two teams met back in Week 10, Williams hauled in two of three targets for 55 receiving yards. He doesn’t need high volume to provide a nice return on his modest salary, but if he sees an uptick in volume this go-round against the Raiders, he could post a monster line. And, to that end, Williams has been targeted six or more times in the four games since he last faced the Raiders.