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FanDuel Market Watch: Week 16 (2019)

Dec 17, 2019

Is Justin Watson worth your consideration on FanDuel after his hefty salary hike?

Here are the players that have seen the largest value fluctuation from last week to this week’s FanDuel main slate. Depending on the situation, we may be able to exploit this information and take advantage of the fact that the player’s salary increased or decreased significantly from last week.

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Andy Dalton (CIN): $7,100 @ MIA (+$600)
It’s getting kind of ridiculous that we have to deal with Andy Dalton again. FanDuel needs to find a different algorithm so that people like Dalton don’t continue to have roller coaster salaries. I understand that he is playing Miami, but he is also not playing well. Leaving him at $6,500 would have made some people have to think. Moving him into the 7k range makes this an easy fade, as FD quarterback pricing is too condensed. Though not good, Miami is not an automatic for targeting with quarterbacks. Only four quarterbacks have passed for 300+ yards against them and only three have passed for three or more touchdowns. Dalton hasn’t hit the 300-yard mark or thrown for more than one touchdown in his last three games.

David Blough (DET): $6,600 @ DEN (-$700)
He is relatively cheap for a quarterback, but you don’t want to punt this position. He has only averaged 13 FDFP in his three starts. He is throwing a lot, but the efficiency just isn’t there. The quarterback position isn’t like the others where volume and opportunity are king. You want efficiency in your quarterbacks and we just don’t have that with Blough.

Running Backs

Joe Mixon (CIN): $7,800 @ MIA (+$1,100)
I haven’t trusted Mixon through the years and therefore rarely play him. However, it looks like his coach trusts him, which is more important than my level of trust in him. I have been intentionally overlooking him for many weeks now and all he seems to do is put up consistent fantasy performances. He is just teasing me, but I might actually give in and play him this week. He has rushed for 282 yards in the last two weeks and this week gets a Dolphins team that is giving up more yards to running backs than any other team. In the six games since the bye, he has averaged nearly 24 touches and 16.5 FDFP. He is definitely in play this week even at his elevated price tag.

DeAndre Washington (OAK): $5,600 @ LAC (-$700)
As long as Josh Jacobs is expected to play, then Washington is not a viable option, especially with the running back spots being so important. He only has two games with double-digit fantasy points this year and one of them was in Week 14 with Jacobs out.

Wide Receivers

Justin Watson (TB): $5,700 vs. HOU (+$1,200)
Alpha receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are out, leaving a host of unknowns vying for Jameis Winston’s attention. Breshad Perriman has been the best of the bunch, but has an incredibly high salary of $7,400. Watson was the minimum price last week and is still fairly affordable if you want to get a piece of this Tampa Bay passing attack. There is no guarantee that he will have a good game as his 2-17-0 stat line from last week indicates. He did, however, catch five balls for 59 yards and a touchdown in Week 14. He’s not a terrible option, but I’d probably rather have Dede Westbrook, Greg Ward, Diontae Johnson, Marquise Brown, or Kenny Stills, who are all in the same price range as Watson.

Isaiah Ford (MIA): $4,800 vs. CIN (-$700)
The Dolphins’ No. 4 wide receiver saw a bump in price last week after being pressed into significant Week 14 action with the injuries to Albert Wilson and DeVante Parker. With those two returning to the lineup this past week, Ford moved back to fourth on the pecking order with a 3-21-0 stat line. His season stat line is only 11-122-0, so he is not a viable fantasy option.

Tight Ends

Cethan Carter (CIN): $4,700 @ MIA (+$700)
Sure, he caught a touchdown last week, but he was targeted twice and ended up with only 13 yards. He had not been targeted all season until this past week. Unless he is the only tight end available to the Bengals this upcoming week, there was no need for FanDuel to raise his price. Even though he is facing Miami, he is not someone that should be considered.

Nick O’Leary (JAC): $4,800 @ ATL (-$500)
This is another situation where FanDuel corrects their pricing from the week before. He scored a touchdown in Week 14, so FD raised his price. He was not targeted last week despite “technically” being the top tight end left on the Jaguars’ roster. He has seen four or five targets in three straight games, but is not worth considering even as a punt play. He has no legitimate track record to speak of.

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Jamy Bechler is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can follow him on his DFS Twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success Is a Choice” podcast, and a leadership consultant, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommended in this article.

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25Donovan Mitchell (UTH)PG,SG
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28Kevin Love (CLE)PF,C
29Draymond Green (GSW)PF,C
30LaMarcus Aldridge (SAS)PF,C
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