After 16 weeks, we’ve finally reached the end of the NFL regular season. Every team has a game scheduled on Sunday, though not every team is going to be playing its starters for the entire game. First and foremost, let’s review which teams have post-season implications in their games:
NFL Playoff Scenarios for the final week of the regular season (Week 17). 10 out of 12 teams have clinched a spot 🏈 pic.twitter.com/0et1WRS668
— Ron Carthen (@rcarthen) December 24, 2019
Thus far, there are a couple of teams that are in the playoffs that cannot change their post-season seeding. The Baltimore Ravens and Minnesota Vikings are locked into their seeds. The Ravens have already come out and said that they’re benching starters, including MVP-candidate (winner) Lamar Jackson. The Vikings are the sixth seed in the NFC. While they haven’t announced starters would be on a short leash, it’s feasible that they might not see a full set of snaps. Also, the Houston Texans play in the late afternoon, and the Kansas City Chiefs play in the early games. If the Chiefs win, the Texans are locked into the third seed in the AFC. Late swap is your friend this weekend. Keep the most flexibility you can with the late game players.
It's possible Trace McSorley will play at QB in addition to Robert Griffin III on Sunday, per Harbaugh.
— Aaron Kasinitz (@AaronKazreports) December 23, 2019
It wouldn’t be Week 17 if we weren’t talking about injuries as well. Zach Ertz and his status loom large this weekend. It’s likely he’s going to miss this game. Kyler Murray is a true game-time decision for the Arizona Cardinals as well. Remember that coaching decisions could factor in when attempting to plug in a backup. Think of Week 17, just like the preseason when it comes to DFS. Information is out there, and you just need to pursue it. When in doubt this week on a roster spot, go with the player on a team that has something to play for.
Here are some of the players that I’m focusing on for cash game consideration for Week 17:
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Quarterbacks
Ryan Tannehill (TEN): $7,900 at Houston Texans
There’s a good chance that the Texans won’t have anything to play for on Sunday. For Tannehill and the Titans, however, they need a win, and they’re in the playoffs. In what surmounts to the biggest game of Tannehill’s career, he’s playing exceptionally well.
Ryan Tannehill
Passer Rating: 116.5 (1st)
Yards per Attempt: 9.6 (1st)
PFF Grade: 92.1 (2nd)Fantasy Points per Start: 23.0 (2nd)
Fantasy Points per Dropback: 0.69 (2nd)— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) December 26, 2019
Since Week 10, Tannehill is averaging 260.7 passing yards per game and 2.3 passing touchdowns per game. He’s rushed for three touchdowns in those games as well. The Texans are 31st in the NFL in pressures generated (18.30%). Tannehill held his own the last time the two teams met. Expect better this go-around.
Carson Wentz (PHI): $7,700 at New York Giants
Wentz has been throwing to guys from the local YMCA, but they’re getting the job done with duct tape and bubble gum. Despite this, Wentz hasn’t had fewer than 40 passing attempts in a game since Week 9. He’s topped 300 yards passing in three of the last four with nine touchdowns in those games. After last week’s win against the Dallas Cowboys, I can’t count Wentz out for the rest of the year.
Carson Wentz
Since Wk 11 the PHI Ranks in Passing play %:
Neutral Game Script: 4️⃣th (63%) 😉
Leading by 9 or ^: 2️⃣nd (67%)😍
________________
Wk 17 vs NYGNYG have allowed the:
4️⃣th Most DK ppg to QBs
7️⃣th Most Passing Tds
6️⃣th Most Passing Yds
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) December 26, 2019
Other notables
Patrick Mahomes (KC): $8,600 vs. LAC
Matt Ryan (ATL): $7,800 at TB
Running Backs
Aaron Jones (GB): $8,000 at Detroit Lions
Expect a full effort on the road out of the Packers this weekend. A win guarantees the Packers the second seed at a minimum. Meanwhile, the Lions continue to get gashed on the ground. The Packers are 12.5 point favorites on the road. Jones has topped 130 rushing yards in two of his last three games. Jones has five rushing touchdowns over his last three games. This is all while Jamaal Williams has come close to splitting snaps evenly with Jones.
The Lions are also allowing the third-most receiving yards to running backs despite allowing the 11th fewest receptions. Maybe Jones will rush for and catch a touchdown this weekend. At the very minimum, he’ll be able to top 1,000 rushing yards this week as he’s just 16 yards shy as of kickoff.
Joe Mixon (CIN): $7,300 vs. Cleveland Browns
From ESPN: “Since Week 10, Mixon leads the NFL in rush attempts (130) and is tied with Cleveland’s Nick Chubb for the second-most rushing yards (605). Mixon’s stuff rate has been cut in half to 13.1%, per NFL Next Gen Stats.”
Rushing yards:
Joe Mixon = 975
Aaron Jones = 982
Marlon Mack = 1,014
Leonard Fournette = 1,152
Christian McCaffrey = 1,361Rushing TDs:
Mixon = 3
Jones = 16
Mack = 6
Fournette = 3
CMC = 14Regression is coming folks
— Nick Whalen (@_NickWhalen) December 24, 2019
Contract incentives are always worth watching this time of year when it comes to teams out of the playoffs. Mixon, in an otherwise meaningless game, is coming off a disappointing “flu game” that saw him get 21 carries, with three of those coming from inside the five-yard line. The result was not great. Just 50 yards rushing and 73 yards from scrimmage total. The opportunity was there, though, and he’s just 25 yards from 1,000 yards on the season.
This week Mixon faces a Browns defense that he ran through a couple of weeks ago to the tune of 146 rushing yards and a touchdown. In that game, Mixon had six red zone carries, five of which were from inside the 10-yard line. The Bengals have locked up the first overall draft pick, so this game truly is for pride. It could be strangely fascinating to watch.
Other notables
Miles Sanders (PHI): $7,400 at NYG
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL): $8,700 vs. WAS
Wide Receivers
Greg Ward (PHI): $5,600 at New York Giants
What a journey it’s been for Ward. Now, he and the Eagles are on the verge of going to the playoffs as the NFC East Champion. If the Eagles make the playoffs, Ward’s contributions can be a prime example of why they accomplished that feat.
One additional bonus for Ward this week: He’s going up against Corey Ballentine, the Giants’ nickel corner. Last week Steven Sims caught six passes for 64 yards and two touchdowns against him.
As Greg Ward gets more and more reps you can see all of the different ways that he is able to impact the offense. Some really good stuff from Ward as a route runner here, but love the design on some of these plays as well #FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/jIkheJbYn9
— Fran Duffy (@fduffy3) December 23, 2019
Robert Woods (LAR): $7,700 vs. Arizona Cardinals
The last time these two teams met, Woods went absolutely bonkers. Woods had 13 catches on 18 targets for 172 yards receiving. No touchdowns, of course. In fact, Woods has just one touchdown this season.
Woods has 45 receptions on 67 targets over the last six games. He has 596 receiving yards. He’s even rushed for 35 yards on four carries. That said, he still has just one touchdown all season. But you should be there when the touchdowns come, and this week could very well be where the law of averages takes over.
Other notables
Terry McLaurin (WAS): $6,100 at DAL
Breshad Perriman (TB): $7,600 vs. ATL
Tight Ends
Dallas Goedert (PHI): $6,400 at New York Giants
Goedert’s price has risen exponentially, but even if Ertz doesn’t miss this game, he’s going to be peppered with targets. The opportunity is certainly sufficient for cash game considerations.
Tyler Higbee (LAR): $6,900 vs. Arizona Cardinals
It’s the Cardinals against a tight end. It’s a guy that was doing this prior to last week, and who then proceeded to catch nine passes for 104 yards against the San Francisco 49ers.
Tyler Higbee …
2017 (16 games): 25 receptions-295 yards-1 TD (45 targets)
2018 (16 games): 24-292-2 (34)
…
Over the past three weeks: 26-334-1 (33)Only Robert Woods, Michael Thomas, Christian McCaffrey and Allen Robinson have more targets during this span.
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) December 17, 2019
Gerald Everett‘s return was a whole four snaps, and one has to wonder to what extent he plays in the season finale. Next season is Everett’s last under contract with the Rams, while Higbee has four more seasons under contract, should the Rams decide to keep him past 2020. This seems like a perfect opportunity for the Rams to get one last evaluation of Higbee during this breakout campaign.
Other notables
Travis Kelce (KC): $7,500 vs. LAC
Jared Cook (NO): $6,800 @ CAR
Defense
Los Angeles Rams DST: $3,800 vs. Arizona Cardinals
This is all contingent on Murray being out for the Cardinals.
Pittsburgh Steelers DST: $3,500 @ Baltimore Ravens
The Steelers have something to play for while the Ravens are resting most of their starters. I just don’t see Robert Griffin III or Trace McSorley doing much against the defense that leads the league with a 31.10% pressure rate and is second in sacks. The Steelers defense knocks opposing quarterbacks down 10.50% of the time, second-most in the NFL. Suffice to say, RGIII is going to have his hands full.
Other notables
Philadelphia DST: $4,500 at NYG
Patriots DST: $5,000 vs. MIA
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Matt Giraldi is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Matt, check out his archive or follow him @Mgiraldi.
