FanDuel NFL GPP Lineup Advice: Week 14 (2019)
The NFL Week 14 slate looks like a really good one for building GPP lineups. It is a week where I believe there will be a bunch of high-priced stud players in marquee games who will go overlooked due to their matchup. This gives us a great opportunity to play the “defense doesn’t matter” angle and get players at lower ownership in games that should be very competitive.
So, with that let’s stack’em up for Week 14.
QB Patrick Mahomes (KC): $8,400 / TE Travis Kelce (KC): $7,100
As I eluded to in the intro, I’m going after stacking the two biggest marquee matchups on the slate starting with the Chiefs/Patriots tilt. I understand the Patriots defense has been very good this season, but I also believe that they are not as good as advertised due to their easy schedule. This season, the Patriots defense has been exposed by two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, Lamar Jackson, and Deshaun Watson. They’ll face another elite QB this week with Mahomes. Both games between the Chiefs and Patriots last season were shootouts while Mahomes averaged 324 passing yards and 3.5 touchdowns. Hook up Mahomes with Kelce as the Patriots have allowed an average of 7.0 receptions (30th) for 64 yards (26th), and 0.75 touchdowns (28th) to tight ends over the last five weeks. Bring it back with Tom Brady’s go-to option in big games, Julian Edelman.
Bring it back with: Julian Edelman (NE): $7,600
QB Drew Brees (NO): $7,700 / WR Michael Thomas (NO): $8,600
The other marquee matchup on the slate is the battle between the 49ers and Saints. Both teams have good defenses, but games in New Orleans just seem to have a way to become high-scoring with Brees leading the way. Both of these teams have very concentrated targets in the passing game. For the Saints, it’s Michael Thomas, who has over 25 percent target share in every game this season. On the 49ers’ side, George Kittle has exceeded 25 percent target share in six of his last eight games with a low mark at a still-high 19 percent during that stretch. I’d even consider lumping in Alvin Kamara for a double stack on the Saints side.
Bring it back with: George Kittle (SF): $6,700
RB Aaron Jones (GB): $7,800 / DEF Packers: $5,000
The Packers are one of the biggest home favorites on the slate, yet I don’t see much interest in Aaron Jones around the industry. Sure, he splits some time with Jamaal Williams in the backfield, but Jones has also had some GPP-winning efforts this year including four games with multiple touchdowns. He’ll face a Redskins run defense that ranks in the bottom half of the league in DVOA. The Packers should get out to an early lead and be content with running the ball with success in the second half. We also saw Williams pop up on the injury report on Thursday with a limited practice due to his knee. Couple Jones with the Packers defense that faces Dwayne Haskins who has been sacked an average of 4.5 times per game over the last five weeks.
Melvin Gordon (RB – LAC): $7,300
I don’t understand the lack of love for Gordon this week. He has reached 20 or more carries in three of his last four games to go along with a few looks in the passing game each week. That volume should translate into production this week with a dream matchup against the Jaguars’ run defense that ranks 31st DVOA this season. They have surrendered an average of 160 rushing yards (32nd) and 1.75 touchdowns (31st) per game on the ground to running backs over the last five weeks on 6.16 YPC (32nd). Gordon should be on his way to a 100-yard effort with at least one score this week.
- Joe Mixon (RB – CIN): $6,700
- Odell Beckham (WR – CLE): $6,800
- Mike Williams (WR – LAC): $5,900
- Tyrell Williams (WR – OAK): $5,700
- Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS): $5,600
- Ian Thomas (TE – CAR): $4,000