FanDuel NFL Value Plays: Week 14 (2019)
Geoff Lambert looks at NFL DFS value plays for Week 14.
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Andy Dalton (CIN): $7,000 @ CLE
Dalton led the Bengals to their first victory of the season last week and while he didn’t light the world on fire with his statistics, he put up a decent enough fantasy game. This week they play the Browns who are favored by eight points, which should lead to more pass attempts for Dalton. A sneaky stack will be Dalton with Tyler Boyd and running it back on the other side with Jarvis Landry or Odel Beckham Jr.
Darwin Thompson (KC): $5,200 @ NEP
Pay attention to the news on this one. Both Darrel Williams and Damien Williams could miss this game, leaving Thompon and LeSean McCoy to split carries. You don’t beat the Patriots in the passing game, you beat them on the ground — both backs could get enough touches to be fantasy viable, Thompson is just a lot cheaper.
Alexander Mattison (MIN): $5,100 vs. DET
Dalvin Cook claims he will play this weekend, but the team may have other ideas. Mattison has proven to be a very good option in relief of Cook, and the team may not want to risk further injury headed into the playoffs. That could lead to them giving him the week off against a Lions team they should be able to beat without him. If this is the case than Mattison will immediately become the chalk play of the week, but one that should pay off handsomely.
A.J. Brown (TEN): $5,400 @ OAK
The Raiders are better against the run then they are against the pass, and if they are able to slow down the running game with Derrick Henry — even a little — it may force Ryan Tannehill to pass the ball more. Brown has received at least four targets over the last four games and six of the last seven. That may not seem like a lot of targets, but Brown doesn’t need a massive target share to have a big game. He is a big-play receiver that just needs one play to pay off. The Raiders have given up a 20-plus yard reception on 13 percent of pass plays this season, which is tied for the most with the Bengals.
Parris Campbell (IND): $4,800 @ TB
If T.Y. Hilton sits out, Zach Pascal will be a popular player at $6,100, but Campbell is an interesting pivot. Campbell had just started coming into his own when he got hurt. He had 5 catches for 53 yards before going down early in the fourth quarter in Week 9 against the Steelers. The Colts were running plays specifically designed to get Campbell involved, and he is the type of player that can take it to the house on a screen play. The Bucs give up a ton of yards through the air so Campbell should get plenty of opportunities to pick up where he left off.
Ian Thomas (CAR): $4,000 @ ATL
Starting tight end Greg Olsen (concussion) is unlikely to play in this game, thrusting little-used backup Ian Thomas into a starting role. At $4,000, Thomas is the minimum price for a tight end and he saw his biggest workload of the season last week after Olsen went out. The Falcons ranked 27th in DVOA against the pass and Kyle Allen looks to the tight end a lot in the passing game.
San Francisco 49ers: $3,800 @ NO
The 49ers aren’t the super cheap defense that I normally look for, but I do think they are tremendously undervalued this week. Drew Brees is not a very mobile quarterback and the Niners have had at least three sacks in all but two games this season, one of which was last week when they faced the matchup nightmare, Lamar Jackson. They will get to Drew Brees, it’s just a matter of how many times.