Fantasy Basketball Buy & Sell: Week 7 (2019)
The NBA regular season is one-quarter of the way into the books already. There is no lack of storylines to follow either. From Carmelo Anthony returning and producing for the Blazers to Luka Doncic vaulting himself into the MVP race, there are plenty of feel-good stories across the league.
The thing to watch is the upcoming returns. Kyrie Irving, Marvin Bagley III, Ja Morant, Deandre Ayton, Zion Williamson, and John Collins should all return before Christmas Day. That should shake up the fantasy landscape. Managers need to keep an eye on how that is changing the value of players they currently own.
Today, we will take a look at five players that should be traded this week because their value is at a high or low point.
Here are three players fantasy managers should buy while their value is at a low point.
Ricky Rubio (PG – PHO)
Rubio has missed five games this season, so his ranking is a bit depressed. He is currently 130th on the FantasyPros Player Rater. Rubio has brought back the elite assists from his Minnesota days. He is currently fifth in the NBA. Rubio should also provide elite assists and steals for a point guard.
The 29-year-old has a consensus ADP of 73. That is too low for the level Rubio is producing at this season. If fantasy managers account for only his six best categories (a fantastic strategy for head-to-head leagues), Rubio ranks as a top-40 player.
Most have not caught on to his increased production. Buy him now for any player ranked outside the top-60 and enjoy the rewards for the rest of the year.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (PG/SG – OKC)
Gilgeous-Alexander is primed to take a massive leap in the rankings. He currently sits 84th on the Player Rater. SGA is averaging 18.2 points, 5.1 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 0.9 steals, and 0.5 blocks in 34.3 minutes per game. He is shooting 43.7 percent from the field and 77.9 percent on his free throws.
Taking a look at his shot chart shows why Gilgeous-Alexander is about to improve significantly. He has taken 157 of his 295 field goal attempts from the closest distance to the basket. SGA is finishing them at just 50.3 percent. That is well below the league average of 57.0 percent. Last season, he connected on 57.8 percent from that distance. Gilgeous-Alexander is getting to the rim a ton and is about to start nailing those shots.
The increase should allow SGA to up his scoring to close to 20 points per game and will allow his field goal percentage to rise to 45 percent or better. Add in a few additional steals (averaged 1.2 in 26.5 minutes per game as a rookie) and Gilgeous-Alexander is inside the top 50.
Try to trade for the 21-year-old before he starts taking the leap. I’d be willing to give up any player ranked outside the top 60 to grab SGA now.
Darius Garland (PG – CLE)
Garland is ranked 200th on the Player Rater. He went undrafted in most leagues and could easily be sitting on your waiver wire right now. Go acquire the 20-year-old.
Garland is playing 28.2 minutes per game and starting at point guard for the Cavs. The numbers aren’t spectacular on the season, but he is starting to settle in. Over the last ten games, Garland is averaging 12.8 points with 2.4 3-pointers made. He appears to be an elite shooter from deep. Connecting on 38.1 percent for the season and that continues to climb. Expect Garland to average over one steal and four assists per game to go with the points and 3-pointers.
Garland could easily sneak his way into the top 100 in the 2020 portion of the schedule. He is taking the trajectory of most rookies. A slow start, but the play is starting to ramp up. Grabbing a top 100 talent at no cost could be a move that vaults you up the standings.
Selling at the peak of a player’s value is a fantastic way to win in fantasy. Here are two players that cannot keep up their current pace.
Bojan Bogdanovic (SG/SF – UTH)
Bogdanovic is having a tremendous first season in Utah. He is averaging 20.9 points, 4.4 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 0.8 steals, and 3.1 3-pointers made per game in 33.1 minutes. The 30-year-old continues to improve. He is ranked 35th on the Player Rater so far.
Bogdanovic finished 60th last season. Assuming Mike Conley bounces back some, the scoring could come at the direct result of Bogdanovic. He likely scores under 20 points per game for the season.
It is unlikely Bojan ranks higher than he does right now this season. Search out the manager in your league that needs points and 3-pointers and try to sell high on his incredible production. I’d trade Bogdanovic for any player inside the top 40.
Terry Rozier (PG/SG – CHA)
Rozier is having an outstanding season in his first year with Charlotte. He is averaging 17.3 points, 4.2 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.2 steals, and 2.6 3-pointers made in 32.4 minutes per game. Rozier is shooting a career-high in both his field goal (43.1 percent) and free throw (86.2 percent).
The 25-year-old currently ranks 31st on the Player Rater. That Hornets have also played a league-high 22 games so far. Rozier is going to take a step back in his shooting. It could easily knock him outside the top 50 in the rankings.
Sell high now. Many managers were high on Rozier coming into the season. His early production should have only increased that excitement. Grab another top 50 option that won’t hurt your field goal percentage and can provide more stable value going forward. Trading Rozier for SGA would be a home run.
Tyler Watts is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Tyler, follow him @tylerpwatts.