Fantasy managers are vying for championship spots in Week 15, and yet the season continues to confound.

Two weeks ago, sitting the struggling Carson Wentz and Jared Goff against poor defenses backfired horribly. Last week, sitting Drew Brees against the formidable 49ers… backfired horribly. The lesson this time? There is no convenient lesson or foolproof blueprint to avoiding heartbreak. Sometimes the right player can overcome unfavorable circumstances. Sometimes he gets hurt in the first quarter. Weird things can (and will) happen.

If you’re still reading, a strong process — mixed with some luck — has probably paid off over the long haul. Starting and sitting these players should optimize the odds of surviving one more week. As always, the accompanying Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) were taken on Tuesday night and apply to half-PPR scoring.

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Quarterback

Start: Ryan Tannehill (TEN) vs. HOU: QB7 ECR
Tannehill is more than just any old streamer to pluck off the waiver wire. In seven starts since taking over for Marcus Mariota, he’s second to Lamar Jackson in fantasy points per game and drop back. Tannehill has cleared 300 yards thrice while leading the NFL in quarterback rating (118.5) and adjusted yards per pass attempt (10.2). He’s also more consistent than the typical fringe starter, only once falling short of 18.9 fantasy points. Just 10 healthy quarterbacks have averaged as many per game.

I suppose you also want to know about the matchup. The Texans have ceded three touchdowns with over 300 passing yards in consecutive weeks to Tom Brady and Drew Lock. They’ve now forfeited the sixth-most passing yards and fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. It may feel strange, but start Tannehill over Matt Ryan, Kyler Murray, and even this next legend.

Sit: Tom Brady (NE) at CIN: QB14 ECR
Two weeks ago, I said Brady isn’t done just yet. On the surface, he validated that sentiment by stockpiling 326 passing yards and three touchdowns against the Texans. A strong fantasy showing indeed, but it came in a “too little, too late” comeback effort in which he completed 24 of 47 passes. After going 19-of-37 for 169 yards in a lackluster showing against Kansas City, one must wonder if those booing at Foxboro were fantasy investors rather than Patriots fans.

Brady’s lowest yards per attempt average (6.6) since 2002 continues to sink deeper with just 5.8 averaged over his last seven games. He’s the QB24 during this Week 7-14 window, which has also featured a woeful 56.8% completion rate. Although the Bengals represent the perfect “get right” opponent for a floundering New England offense, the spoils may not translate to Brady’s fantasy line. The Pats, like many other teams, tend to lean more on the ground game in December. As heavy favorites against the league’s worst rushing offense, Brady could take a back seat to Sony Michel and Co. in a more efficient, but less bountiful box score. Although certainly playable against a weak opponent, he’s far from a must-start QB1 for anyone who can still claim Tannehill. Managers can also do what the Patriots likely still wish was a succession option and replace the 42-year-old with a streaking Jimmy Garoppolo.

Running Back

Start: Sony Michel (NE) at CIN: RB28 ECR
Speaking of Michel, his managers are probably fed up by now. They should be. He’s seen his rushes sliced in half (20, 10, 5) in each of the last two games. He recorded a whopping nine yards on nine snaps against the Chiefs. Forget playing the second-year back; is it time to drop him before Bill Belichick throws away the key to his doghouse?

The diminished role makes a whole lot of sense given Michel’s putrid 3.5 yards per run. His decline led James White to frequent this space last week. This game, however, represents the best possible spot for Michel to snap a six-game touchdown drought. The Patriots are on to Cincinnati after two straight losses; they haven’t dropped three in a row since 2002. They’re heavily favored, and the Bengals have ceded the seventh-most fantasy points per game to running backs. Despite his setbacks, Michel has drawn 22 handoffs inside the 10 this season. While he’d be an easy sit in any other situation, everything plays too perfectly into him finding the end zone at least once in a lopsided triumph.

Sit: LeSean McCoy (KC) vs. DEN: RB30 ECR
One would think the absence of both Damien Williams and Darrel Williams would have propelled LeSean McCoy to a meatier workload. Not quite. He’s merely stayed the figurehead leader of a committee with 73 yards on 20 touches over the last two games. Darwin Thompson ran for just seven yards against New England, but he handled most of the receiving work in a 23-16 victory. McCoy, meanwhile, has yet to top 12 rushes in a game all season. Even if still Kansas City’s most playable back by default, the veteran is merely a desperation flex play – preferably in non-PPR formats – against a Denver defense stymieing opposing running backs to the 11th-fewest fantasy points. That’s before factoring in the possibility of Damien Williams returning this Sunday.

Wide Receiver

Start: Terry McLaurin (WAS) vs. PHI: WR26 ECR
Anyone who watched Darius Slayton‘s first half on Monday night will get excited for the next NFC East rookie wideout facing the Eagles. McLaurin endured a rough patch when Washington turned to Dwayne Haskins, but the former Ohio State teammates have developed a bit more chemistry in recent weeks. Despite throwing an eight-yard blunder got thrown into the shuffle, McLaurin has still collected 206 yards on a 23.3% target share over his last four games. He’s right behind Michael Thomas on the air yards leaderboard, and only five receivers with at least 75 targets have a higher average depth of target than the neophyte’s 14.3. Like Slayton, McLaurin should have a few opportunities to go long against a defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers. A poor offense lowers his floor, but the upside as Haskins’ clear top target keeps “Scary Terry” — did whoever came up with that nickname think it rhymed? — in play as a difference-making WR3.

Sit: Curtis Samuel (CAR) vs. SEA: ECR39
To think there was once a debate over who was Carolina’s most valuable receiver between Samuel and D.J. Moore. While Moore has emerged as a legitimate WR1, Samuel is no longer a recommended WR3. Aside from delivering 65 yards and a score in Week 13, Samuel has submitted 25 yards or fewer without a touchdown in three of his last four games. He’s seen 21 combined targets in those bouts after previously drawing at least six in eight consecutive contests.

Ranking sixth in air yards between Julio Jones and Odell Beckham Jr., the third-year pro has brandished enough potential to placate antsy investors. The results, however, have yet to follow. He’s reeled in roughly half (45-89) of his targets all season while never reaching 100 yards. We need to see Kyle Allen eventually connect on some of those deep strikes, which is going to be tough since the rookie never gets a clean pocket. The Seahawks are also more susceptible to the short stuff; they’ve ceded the third-most completions but the 14th-most yards per pass attempt.

Tight End

Start: Mike Gesicki (MIA) at NYG: TE15 ECR
Those who jumped on Gesicki’s bandwagon for the playoffs watched his upward arrow plummet with a six-yard snoozer against the Jets. Don’t jump off board just yet. The Dolphins have no running game to speak of, and Ryan Fitzpatrick might also be without his best wide receiver if a concussion sidelines DeVante Parker. They’ll stay in MetLife Stadium to face the Giants, who rank 26th in passing defense. He’s no Zach Ertz, but Gesicki has still received 37 targets in the last six games. He should also have a strong showing against the G-Men because of his depleted supporting cast.

Sit: Jacob Hollister (SEA) at CAR: TE11 ECR
Carolina ranks 29th against the run, and only two teams have run the ball more times than Seattle. Hollister has received 42 targets in eight games, but Russell Wilson will spend most of this clash feeding the rock to Chris Carson. Besides, the tight end has accrued 100 yards in three games since breaking out in overtime wins over Tampa Bay and San Francisco. Despite their defensive struggles elsewhere, the Panthers have relinquished an NFL-low 44 receptions and 66 targets to tight ends in 2019. Treat Hollister as a TE2 who has lost too much luster to play over Gesicki, Ian Thomas, or (if active) Noah Fant.

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