Countless fantasy football managers will spend the holidays toasting a championship or lamenting a cold lost to start the winter. Yet there’s work to be done for others whose leagues count Week 17.
These gamers will quickly discover why most leagues avoid the closing weekend. Given the slew of injuries suffered on Sunday, many managers playing to the finish line will need an extra push. Then there’s also the matter of handling teams with questionable motivations. Although most of the playoff bracket remains unsolved, the Ravens, Bills, and Vikings have nothing on the line.
Don’t discount the impact of a well-timed addition. All past residents of this column, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Tannehill, Raheem Mostert, DeVante Parker, A.J. Brown, and Tyler Higbee have proven pivotal pieces to championship runs. More unlikely sources are bound to seal the deal in a typically chaotic Sunday.
Close out your holiday shopping by targeting the following players for Week 17. All of them enter the final waiver window with a consensus rostered rate below 30%, a cutoff point that emits Kerryon Johnson, DeAndre Washington, and Dallas Goedert.
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Quarterback
Daniel Jones (NYG): 23% Rostered
Jones’ ankle injury gave Eli Manning a two-game swan song, but the rookie returned strong with five passing touchdowns. It marked the third time he’s accrued at least 300 passing yards and four scores in his last six games. And yes, he amassed four touchdowns combined with as many picks in the other three. He’s once again the ultimate high-risk, high-reward streamer. The Eagles aren’t as weak as the defenses Jones has exposed, but they made Manning look like the old Super Bowl winner for a half in Week 14.
Sam Darnold (NYJ): 28% Rostered
Following Saturday’s loss to the Pats, the Bills are fastened into the AFC’s fifth seed. If Sean McDermott declares plans to rest his starters, Darnold becomes an interesting streamer. Before running into the Ravens and Steelers, he was the QB7 against a soft schedule from Weeks 10-14. Buffalo ranks third in passing defense, so Darnold is not worth the risk if McDermott says he’s playing to win.
Ryan Fitzpatrick (MIA): 27% Rostered
Here’s your weekly reminder that Fitzpatrick is a fantasy force. Over his last eight games, the veteran has stockpiled 2,402 passing yards on 322 pass attempts. Throw in 16 touchdowns (two rushing), and only four quarterbacks have mustered more fantasy points during this time frame. He also concludes the season against the Patriots, who have yielded the fewest fantasy points to the position. There’s hope, however, of Fitzmagic lasting through the holidays. If New England cements a first-round bye with a dominant first half, the AFC East champs could take its foot off the accelerator in the second half.
Running Back
Gus Edwards (BAL): 7% Rostered
Justice Hill (BAL): 4% Rostered
Shortly after clinching home-field advantage throughout the AFC bracket, John Harbaugh said he plans to rest several key starters. This includes Lamar Jackson, but don’t mess with Robert Griffin III or any part of Baltimore’s passing offense unless desperate. If any reserves are going to benefit, it’s the running backs replacing Mark Ingram. The starter left Week 16’s win early with a calf injury, resulting in Edwards turning 12 carries into 66 yards. Hill, meanwhile, scored his first career touchdown. Even if Edwards handles more carries, Hill is more likely to truly break matchups open as an improbable Week 17 hero. Target Edwards for volume and Hill for upside.
Rex Burkhead (NE): 9% Rostered
Having previously collected his lone touchdown in Week 3, Burkhead has reached the end zone in consecutive contests. Both occurred on the ground, but he added a season-high 77 receiving yards in Saturday’s division-clinching triumph over Buffalo. He enjoyed his best game in recent memory despite an early fumble, and Week 17’s clash against Miami could be the perfect tune-up opportunity for another big postseason. Perhaps he’ll play more snaps with the second-stringers if New England builds a big lead.
Boston Scott (PHI): 12% Rostered
While Miles Sanders ascended into a borderline RB1, Scott settled for 19 yards in Week 16’s monumental win over Dallas. PPR players, however, gained 6.7 points for his seven receiving yards. During Sanders’ late breakthrough, Scott has remarkably caught all 19 targets in Philadelphia’s last three games. He’ll get another stab at the Giants, against whom he tallied 128 yards in Week 14’s coming-out party. There’s deep flex appeal in PPR formats.
Dion Lewis (TEN): 23% Rostered
Sitting Derrick Henry appears to have been a precautionary measure. The Titans expect to have their star running back ready for a win-and-in Week 17 clash against the Texans. In that case, there’s no reason to bother with Lewis. After all, he merely parlayed a featured role into 87 yards on 16 touches. Those who roster (or are facing) Henry still might want to add his understudy just in case.
Marshawn Lynch (FA): 16% Rostered
Travis Homer (SEA): 0% Rostered
On Sunday morning, I was scrolling through the consensus rostered rates when noticing that Lynch was somehow accounted for in 15% of leagues. Yes, the same Lynch who retired in April. Well, their patience may pay off. The Seahawks, who already lost Rashaad Penny for the season, reportedly met with Beast Mode after Chris Carson exited Sunday’s game with a hip injury. This could actually be happening; the enigmatic rusher took a physical on Monday night. Pete Carroll immediately feeding Lynch in an NFC West title game seems crazy, but it’s within the realm of possibility. If not Lynch, Homer could see a hefty workload for the NFL’s third-ranked rushing attack.
Wide Receiver
Greg Ward Jr. (PHI): 13% Rostered
As practically the only wide receiver left on the Eagles’ roster, you would have liked Ward to draw more than five targets Sunday. He at least made of the most of his chances, securing four of them for 71 yards. Philadelphia can win the division by defeating the Giants, who have surrendered the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers.
Justin Watson (TB): 4% Rostered
In the absence of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Scotty Miller, Watson suddenly found himself as a starting wide receiver for one of the NFL’s most abundant passing offenses. He entered Saturday with 12 career targets before seeing in five of 10 looks for 43 yards and a score against the Texans. The second-year pro has recorded five catches and a touchdown in two of Tampa Bay’s last three games and closes the season against an improved, but susceptible Falcons defense that coughed up 184 yards and two scores to Godwin in Week 12.
Diontae Johnson (PIT): 14% Rostered
Even with JuJu Smith-Schuster back in Pittsburgh’s lineup, Johnson led the team in targets (nine), catches (eight), and receiving yards (81) during Sunday’s gutting loss to the Jets. Following his November hibernation, the rookie has resurfaced to record 203 receiving yards and two touchdowns in the last three games. With 24 targets during that window, he has suddenly leapfrogged James Washington as the borderline WR3/4 in a must-win situation for the Steelers and fantasy players alike. The opposing Ravens, meanwhile, aren’t tackling this rivalry with its usual hard-hitting intensity.
Steven Sims Jr. (WAS): 1% Rostered
Sims hadn’t surpassed 45 yards in a single game before last Sunday, but he’s quietly become a target and touchdown monster for Washington’s recently competent offense. The rookie has scored three times on 21 targets in the last two games against the Eagles and Giants, collecting 11 catches despite the low yardage tallies (45 and 64). His Week 17 worth isn’t too hurt by Dwayne Haskins sitting out the 2019 finale; Case Keenum fed Sims his second touchdown of Week 16.
Hunter Renfrow (OAK): 5% Rostered
Out since Week 12 with a rib injury, Renfrow quickly reintroduced himself with a 56-yard touchdown. He led the Raiders with nine targets, seven catches, and 107 yards, all of which set career highs. Before the untimely setback, the rookie bolstered his stock as a waiver-wire candidate by procuring 281 yards and two touchdowns in his last five games. He’s back on the deep-league radar to close the season.
Tight End
Jonnu Smith (TEN): 11% Rostered
Following two games without a single catch, Jonnu Smith has submitted double-digit fantasy points in each of his last three contests. While he couldn’t replicate Week 15’s 57-yard rush, the 24-year-old instead offered a 41-yard receiving score against the Saints. His Titans are amply motivated to win and clinch a playoff berth, and the Texans have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends. Smith should conclude the season as a top-12 option.
Mike Gesicki (MIA): 27% Rostered
Consecutive games with a touchdown in Weeks 12 and 13 set Gesicki up to make major playoff noise. He failed to comply, compiling 48 combined yards in two games at MetLife Stadium. Those who stayed by his side, however, were rewarded with 82 yards and two touchdowns last Sunday. Gesicki has drawn 57 targets over his last eight games. As a result, he’s the TE6 (half-PPR) since the start of Week 9. He’s a low-end TE1 destined to become a popular breakout pick in 2020 drafts.
Kaden Smith (NYG): 6% Rostered
With Evan Engram out for the season, Kaden Smith dealt the Giants a big blow in the Chase Young sweepstakes by securing his second score in overtime to defeat Washington. He’s now caught 17 of 22 targets for 143 yards and two touchdowns through his last three games alongside Jones. Although far from a sure thing, as displayed by a nine-yard showing against the Eagles, a potential shootout in the rematch makes the neophyte a viable TE2.
Defense/Special Teams
Atlanta Falcons: 15% Rostered
It’s a weird week for defensive streamers. If still available, the Browns (50% rostered, at Cincinnati), Packers (45%, at Detroit), and Colts (44%, at Jacksonville) represent your best bets. Among the eligible options, Atlanta is the most palatable. Although he’ll probably lock down the season’s passing title, Winston is still averaging 3.1 sacks and 2.2 turnovers per game. The Falcons have relinquished just 80 points in four games since their 35-22 loss to the Buccaneers, who are now without their two star receivers.
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Andrew Gould is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrewgould4.
