Fantasy Football Week 13: By The Numbers (2019)
Well, I hope you’re still here because you made it to the fantasy playoffs. Everything picks up a level from here on out. I, personally, tend to get a little bit numb towards the end of the regular fantasy season, but once we hit the playoffs, I morph into a total crazy person. Hopefully, you do, too. It’s more fun that way.
I tend to be a “start your studs” guy, even in awful matchups, even in the playoffs. So, for this week, in particular, don’t start thinking about benching Patrick Mahomes against the Patriots or Alvin Kamara against the 49ers. They’re the best players in the league for a reason, so don’t overthink it, and trust your guys.
Here’s your Week 13 by the numbers:
Number of games over the past three weeks where DeVante Parker has less than 91 receiving yards. Parker has averaged 128.3 receiving yards over that span, and he finally got back to scoring in Week 13, adding two touchdowns after three weeks without one. He’s in another good spot against the Jets in Week 14.
The percentage of Robby Anderson’s receiving yards that have come from the past two weeks. Anderson has 101 and 86 yards in the past two games, and those are his second- and third-highest output games of the season. We aren’t quite ready to endorse him as a fantasy starter because, ya know, the Jets, but he’s starting to look more like the mid/late-round value we expected him to be.
Yards for Tevin Coleman against the Ravens, as Raheem Mostert stole the show. Coleman had five carries for six yards, while Mostert had 19 carries for 146 yards. Coleman’s involvement this season has been wildly inconsistent, ranging anywhere from six to 22 touches in a game, and there is seemingly no rhyme or rhythm to when he gets the work. Consider him a risk-reward start moving forward.
Rushing yards for Ronald Jones II against the Jaguars in Week 13. Everyone knew the Jaguars have been awful against running backs, and it looked like Jones was in a spot to finally reward the owners that have intermittently trusted him this season. He racked up eight yards on six carries and was apparently benched for missing a blitz pick-up early on. His counterpart Peyton Barber had 44 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Womp.
Carries for Darwin Thompson in Week 13, which led the Chiefs by a decent amount. Darrel Williams went out with an injury, and LeSean McCoy was used sparingly again. I wouldn’t read too much into Thompson, as this backfield has been a headache all year, but he’s worth a speculative add if you have a roster spot to burn. Sidebar: McCoy doesn’t have over ten carries in a game since Week 7.
The most receiving yards for anyone on the Broncos not named Courtland Sutton. Sutton is the main (and almost only) piece of the Broncos passing attack, and I wouldn’t go anywhere near anyone else on that offense except Phillip Lindsay. I’m talking to you, Noah Fant fans.
Carries for Benny Snell Jr. in Week 13, which led the Steelers. Jaylen Samuels returned to relevance (kind of) with seven carries and another two receptions. It looks like Snell Jr. is going to lead this backfield while James Conner is out, but it’s hard to trust that. Everyone on the Steelers is a risky play at this point.
Touches for James White in Week 13, his highest of the season by a large margin (the previous high was 12). White had 177 scrimmage yards – also a season-high – and added two touchdowns – also a season-high. The best part is that he did all of this one week after going for negative yardage last week, so he was probably benched in most leagues. There’s the Patriots backfield for ya.
Targets for Anthony Miller over the past three weeks. In the three weeks prior, Miller saw a total of six targets, so his involvement has more than quintupled. Miller has 21 catches as well and racked up a career-high 140 yards in Week 13. It’s very hard to endorse a Bears receiver during fantasy playoff time, but Miller is approaching FLEX consideration.
Rushing yards for Jamaal Williams in Week 13, which was, you guessed it, more than Aaron Jones. Jones had just 18 rushing yards on 11 carries. Jones still has massive upside, but as we’ve seen over the past few weeks, he just hasn’t been as involved. When Davante Adams was out, Jones averaged 4.25 receptions per game. Since Adams returned from injury, Jones is averaging 1.25 receptions per game. Hmmmm.
Receiving yards for Michael Thomas in Week 13, his lowest output of the season. Other than a Week 17 game where the Saints rested some starters last season, this was Thomas’s lowest total since November 22, 2018. It wouldn’t be my weekly column if we didn’t mention Michael Thomas.
Receiving yards for Tyler Lockett… over the past three weeks. Lockett had zero receptions on one target in Week 13, and he only had a combined four receptions in the two weeks prior. He’s very hard to bench as he has massive upside, but the lack of involvement in the crucial part of the season is concerning.
Receiving yards for Zach Pascal against the Titans in Week 13. After a delightful zero reception game in what looked to be a great matchup against the Texans in Week 12, Pascal snags seven receptions for 109 yards. He has one of the best receiver matchups against the Buccaneers in Week 14, but he hasn’t been anything close to consistent this season. He’s a pure risk-reward play.
Rushing yards for the Redskins against the Panthers in Week 13. Derrius Guice led the way with 129, and Adrian Peterson had a very nice 99 as well. The Panthers have given up at least one touchdown to opposing running backs in every game since Week 5, and only the Chiefs are worse against running backs from a fantasy perspective. Devonta Freeman gets the Panthers in Week 14.
Average passing yards per game for Dak Prescott over the past four weeks, and he has a total of eight touchdowns and three interceptions. The Cowboys are 1-3 in that span, and the fantasy community seems to be turning on Dak, but this is just a friendly reminder that he is still a very reliable fantasy quarterback that typically throws enough to flirt with overall QB1 status.
Passing yards for Jared Goff against the Cardinals, his first game over 300 yards since October 27th against the Bengals. That game against the Bengals also happened to be the last time he threw a touchdown. I’m not quite ready to anoint the Rams as being “back”, but they seemed much more effective in Week 13. Goff is making his way back into the streaming conversation.