If Your Fantasy Football League Drafted Today
To those of you in the fantasy football playoffs: congratulations, but your work is not done yet. Hopefully this article will help you pick up and start the correct players to help you win that trophy this season. To those who didn’t quite make it: don’t worry, this article is for you as well. It is plenty useful to begin preparing for the next season of fantasy football when the game is still fresh in your mind. Come August, we will be so far separated from the previous season that it will be difficult to remember why so many were excited about Juju Smith-Schuster, Baker Mayfield and Vance McDonald and how everyone slept on Josh Allen, Courtland Sutton and Darren Waller. I figure now is the ideal time to study and prepare for next season. I’ll get to my current top 200 rest of season rankings (for if your league drafted today), but first let’s take a pit spot to try to learn from where ADP failed.
Biggest Risers Compared to Preseason ADP
There were reasons to be hesitant about all of these players but in virtually every case, the obvious upside was well worth the minimal risk at their ADPs. Try to remember these types of players in the future to help target steals in next year’s fantasy football drafts.
- Dalvin Cook (ADP #15 to #4) – Had been a workhorse before when healthy + MIN indicated run-heavy offense
- Leonard Fournette (ADP #26 to #8) – Has always been a bell-cow when he was active, injury risk overstated
- Josh Jacobs (ADP #32 to #15) – 1st round rookie running backs are almost always given huge workloads
- Derrick Henry (ADP #36 to #5) – The final few weeks of 2018 showed us exactly who Henry really was
- Chris Godwin (ADP #45 to #14) – His tape and efficiency were incredible, he just needed consistent snaps
- D.J. Moore (ADP #67 to #28) – How often have we seen rookie wideouts struggle only to blossom the next year?
- Lamar Jackson (ADP #106 to #33) – Sometimes cheat codes break every historical precedent we have
- Courtland Sutton (ADP #115 to #30) – See Moore’s note. Don’t jump to conclusions on rookie wideouts
- Josh Allen (ADP #154 to #71) – He finished 2018 on a blazing pace and showed major pass-game improvement too
- John Brown (ADP #160 to #50) – Has always been efficient when he stayed healthy. This was an easy upside pick
- Darren Waller (ADP #205 to #32) – A much less talented tight end excelled in this role the previous year
- Devante Parker (ADP #220 to #41) – Was always quite effective when healthy and not held off the field by Gase
- D.J. Chark (ADP #291 to #37) – Beat writers were screaming that he the clear #1 and much improved
Biggest Fallers Compared to Preseason ADP
Each of these players, with the exception of Beckham, who is still a complete mystery, had clear red flags. Taking a look at them may enable you to pinpoint which players you should run from at their ADPs nine months from now.
- David Johnson (ADP #5 to #119) – Most veteran RBs with huge workloads behind them don’t hold up over time
- Le’Veon Bell (ADP #8 to #25) – Moved from up-tempo offense with great O-Line to the complete opposite
- Odell Beckham Jr. (ADP #13 to #35) – If you can figure this one out, please explain it to me @bobbyfantasypro
- JuJu Smith-Schuster (ADP #16 to #87) – Was the beneficiary of Brown drawing top coverage of opponents
- Damien Williams (ADP #27 to #104) – Andy Reid told us he was trying to replace him as the starter all along
- O.J. Howard (ADP #54 to #156) – The Bucs moved to a head coach who historically doesn’t use tight ends
- Baker Mayfield (ADP #58 to outside top 200) – 14 INTs and a high TD-rate as a rookie were clear warning signs
- A.J. Green (ADP #60 to #124) – Injury optimism, especially for players on bad teams is a common pitfall
- Josh Gordon (ADP #63 to #142) – Do I really need to remind you of the red flags on this one?
- Robby Anderson (ADP #75 to #150) – Tied to Adam Gase and a horrendous offense. Also had terrible schedule
- Chicago D/ST (ADP #78 to #161) – Drafting D/STs in the first 12 rounds rarely if ever works out well
- Dante Pettis (ADP #105 to outside top 200) – Shanahan showed his hand by burying Pettis in the preseason depth chart
- Jacksonville D/ST (ADP #110 to outside top 200) – Chasing results from two years ago with a D/ST is always trouble
*This list does not include the many who have been ruled out for the season
The rankings below are how I would personally draft for a 12-team, half PPR league with 15 rounds if my drafts were today. Make sure to let me know on Twitter what you would do differently or if you have any questions.