The fantasy playoffs are finally here! I expect my readership to remain unchanged, because everyone who follows my advice made the playoffs. (What? Why would it matter how my teams did?) I imagine that most people who’ve made the playoffs are in the habit of planning ahead, but if you need a defense for this week, I’ve got you covered. Both New England and San Francisco have horrible matchups, so you’ll want to plug someone else in if they carried you here. If you’re covered for this week and need to plan for the second round, here’s my early top five for Week 15:
- NE @ CIN (99% owned, vs KC this week)
- BAL vs NYJ (48% owned, @ BUF this week)
- SF vs ATL (90% owned, @ NO this week)
- GB vs CHI (43% owned, vs WAS and rank 1 this week)
- CLE @ ARI (25% owned, vs CIN this week)
While two of those five are owned in most leagues, BAL, GB and CLE are all usable this week, so you can plan ahead without spending bench space with any of those three.
Looking further, here are my top five for Week 16:
- NE vs BUF (99% owned, vs KC this week)
- SF vs LAR (90% owned, @ NO this week)
- NYJ vs PIT (9% owned, vs MIA this week)
- IND vs CAR (38% owned, @ TB this week)
- MIA vs CIN (1% owned, @ NYJ this week)
Yeah, I know. Cincinnati is that bad.
Ranks
There are a lot of good options this week, with five teams in my first tier, and my top seven all playing at home. Ownership numbers are from Yahoo. Feel free to hit me up with questions on Twitter.
| Rank | Team | Vs. | O/U | Spread | PA | Sack | Turnovers | TD | FPTS | Own% |
| The Start Them With Confidence Tier | ||||||||||
| 1 | GB | WAS | 42 | -14.5 | 13.8 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.15 | 10.9 | 43% |
| 2 | MIN | DET | 42.5 | -13.5 | 14.5 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.14 | 8.2 | 95% |
| 3 | PHI | NYG | 46.5 | -8.5 | 19.0 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.14 | 8.0 | 39% |
| 4 | CLE | CIN | 42.5 | -10.5 | 16.0 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.14 | 7.6 | 25% |
| 5 | HOU | DEN | 41 | -7.5 | 16.8 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.14 | 7.6 | 42% |
| The Still a Fine Choice Tier | ||||||||||
| 6 | NYJ | MIA | 44 | -7.5 | 18.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.15 | 7.4 | 9% |
| 7 | ATL | CAR | 48.5 | -2.5 | 23.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.13 | 7.2 | 2% |
| 8 | BAL | @BUF | 43.5 | -6.5 | 18.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.13 | 6.9 | 48% |
| 9 | PIT | @ARI | 45.5 | -1 | 22.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.12 | 6.7 | 80% |
| 10 | DAL | @CHI | 44 | -3.5 | 20.3 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.13 | 6.4 | 35% |
| The Surely You Can Find Something Better Tier | ||||||||||
| 11 | MIA | @NYJ | 44 | 7.5 | 25.8 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.15 | 6.3 | 1% |
| 12 | LAC | @JAC | 43.5 | -1.5 | 21.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.12 | 6.3 | 71% |
| 13 | OAK | TEN | 47 | 3 | 25.0 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.13 | 6.2 | 1% |
| 14 | IND | @TB | 49.5 | 2.5 | 26.0 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.15 | 6.1 | 38% |
| 15 | NO | SF | 45 | -3.5 | 20.8 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.11 | 6.0 | 81% |
| 16 | JAC | LAC | 43.5 | 1.5 | 22.5 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.14 | 5.9 | 85% |
| 17 | DEN | @HOU | 41 | 7.5 | 24.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.13 | 5.9 | 30% |
| 18 | SEA | @LAR | 46.5 | -2.5 | 22.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.13 | 5.9 | 50% |
| 19 | LAR | SEA | 46.5 | 2.5 | 24.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.11 | 5.8 | 93% |
| 20 | CIN | @CLE | 42.5 | 10.5 | 26.5 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.15 | 5.7 | 1% |
| 21 | CHI | DAL | 44 | 3.5 | 23.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.12 | 5.7 | 97% |
| 22 | TEN | @OAK | 47 | -3 | 22.0 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.13 | 5.6 | 49% |
| 23 | CAR | @ATL | 48.5 | 2.5 | 25.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.13 | 5.6 | 46% |
| 24 | TB | IND | 49.5 | -2.5 | 23.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.11 | 5.5 | 3% |
| 25 | SF | @NO | 45 | 3.5 | 24.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.14 | 5.2 | 90% |
| 26 | NYG | @PHI | 46.5 | 8.5 | 27.5 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.12 | 5.1 | 6% |
| 27 | NE | KC | 49.5 | -3.5 | 23.0 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.12 | 5.0 | 99% |
| 28 | WAS | @GB | 42 | 14.5 | 28.3 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.12 | 5.0 | 7% |
| 29 | KC | @NE | 49.5 | 3.5 | 26.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.12 | 4.7 | 25% |
| 30 | DET | @MIN | 42.5 | 13.5 | 28.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.13 | 4.6 | 13% |
| 31 | BUF | BAL | 43.5 | 6.5 | 25.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.10 | 4.5 | 78% |
| 32 | ARI | PIT | 45.5 | 1 | 23.3 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.12 | 4.1 | 4% |
Takes
- GB vs WAS: After starting out 1-9, Washington have found themselves a two-game winning streak. Fortunately for the Packers, that’s not as good as it sounds. Washington scored only 19 points in their win over Detroit in Week 12. Last week was more impressive with 29 points against a solid Carolina defense, but mostly on the part of Derrius Guice. Dwayne Haskins only completed about half his passes, for 147 yards and no touchdowns. If Washington is smart they’ll try to run back that game plan, leaning on their running backs to prevent Haskins from throwing away the game. That’s going to be a tall order though, against a better Packers run defense, in Green Bay. Tall enough that I’m fully on board with firing up the Packers this week.
- MIN vs DET: The Lions placed Jeff Driskel on IR. Matthew Stafford is still on the roster, but each week it seems less likely that he’ll play again this year, especially now that the Lions are eliminated from the playoffs. That means David Blough will start again. He was actually OK last week, by backup QB standards. I don’t expect him to be worse than Driskel, but I don’t think he’ll be better either. This week he has a nightmare matchup on the road against Minnesota. You could hardly pick a better situation for the Vikings defense.
- PHI vs NYG: The Eagles being favored by 8.5 points surprised me, even at home. I understand that they scored 31 points last week, but it was against the Dolphins. With how the Eagles’ offense has played this year, this line means Vegas has no faith at all in the Giants’ offense. Daniel Jones threw three interceptions last week, but that only brings his average to 1.1 per game. Jones has been extremely boom-bust with sacks as well: he’s been sacked four or more times in half his starts, and one or zero times in four starts. With Jones’ ability to collapse like that, and the profound disrespect from Vegas, I think the Eagles are a great option this week.
- CLE vs CIN: The Bengals un-benched Andy Dalton after three weeks of Ryan Finley, and he did what Finley never could: eclipse 20 points. That doesn’t mean the Bengals were particularly good last week, the opposing Jets just happened to be terrible. This is our fourth of six examples of offenses with lost seasons facing a tough defense on the road. Cleveland is the lowest-owned team in my top tier at 25%, but with only playoff teams competing on the waiver wire, you should be able to get a great defense this week.
- HOU vs DEN: The Broncos finally started Drew Lock, most of a season late. This is absolutely an improvement over not-a-football-player Brandon Allen, and tricked-Elway-into-thinking-he’s-a-football-player Joe Flacco. This is still a rookie in his second start though, against a strong run defense that will force him to throw and risk his short but immaculate sack record. We usually start the opposing defense against a QB in his second start, and we will always do it when that defense is at home.
- NYJ vs MIA: Despite the low projected points allowed, and Miami’s reputation, the Jets fall to Tier 2 because the Dolphins have actually been solid lately. Fitzpatrick has been in the league long enough that we know how this goes – he always turns back into a pumpkin before long. This is a likely week, as the Jets actually have one of the best defenses in the league. Even if he has another reasonable game, Fitzpatrick hasn’t been sacked fewer than three times in a game since Week 7, so there’s a nice little floor built in.
- ATL vs CAR: Three weeks ago, the Falcons held the Panthers to just a field goal, in Carolina. At just 2% ownership, you can almost certainly get the Falcons, so you probably won’t have to dig deeper than this unless you’re in a really interesting league.
- BAL @ BUF: It’s a pretty good week when the best road team is rank 8. Baltimore has one of the best defenses in the league. Buffalo has Josh Allen. He’s showed some flashes of promise this season, but it’s unreliable, and usually against bad defenses. Aside from last week against Dallas, Allen’s best passer ratings have been in both games against Miami, and against Washington. If you’ve been sticking with the Ravens, that’s been working, and there’s no reason to stop now.
- PIT @ ARI: They wouldn’t be my rankings if Arizona’s opponent didn’t show up somewhere in the top 10. Despite their offensive struggles, the Steelers have been on a good 4-week run, with 21 points to the Browns as their worst performance in that span. They’ve faced bad teams, but that’s what they’re doing this week too.
- DAL @ CHI: Don’t let the thanksgiving win fool you – Mitch Trubisky should not be a starting quarterback in the NFL. (Though in fairness, you could say that about half the actual starters in the league.) Last week against the Lions broke a 5-game streak of failing to hit 20 points. That Vegas projects them for about 20 this week seems high to me. Dallas is the last team I don’t have serious doubts about starting.
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Jacob Herlin is a Senior Data Analyst for FantasyPros. For more from Jacob, follow him @jacoblawherlin.
