Monkey Knife Fight Best Bets Week 14 (2019 Fantasy Football)
Monkey Knife Fight is the hottest new name in the DFS arena. They offer a wide variety of DFS alternatives to the traditional salary cap based contests. Perhaps the most appealing of their offerings are the fantasy point and stat-based over/under contests. Make two correct predictions and you will win two times your entry fee, plus your original wager.
It is important to note that Monkey Knife Fight’s offerings are dynamic, and thus are changing throughout the week. This makes it critical that value seekers, take the time to search the player combinations at least once a day for potential steals or lines that could be viewed as errors in our favor. We were unable to get any of our top plays locked in for this week, so we will discuss two of them briefly while also touching on the rationale behind our selections.
When choosing which contest to partake in, what we are looking for are lines/totals that stand out or scream potential value. Monkey Knife Fight has, of course, refined their process to make this process more difficult for DFS players, and often offer a player reception total (which is much harder to predict than yards) as a way of balancing the win probability of the other player total listed in a particular player combination.
The first suggestion is to stay away from reception totals when at all possible. The players who are almost assured to get five-plus receptions will be listed at around 7.5 anyways. Monkey Knife Fight is very sharp with their reception totals when they do not involve players who recently saw a role change.
The second suggestion is the sense test. One of the player totals listed should make so much sense, that it would make no sense not to take. One should have a high enough win probability that you would consider playing the player prop at a sportsbook if that was your thing. Generally, one of the player totals will be the attraction, while the other is the total to be more concerned about.
The third suggestion is not to shy away from under plays. If you have been a regular reader of this weekly column you will recognize that most of the plays are indeed over plays. This is due to the fact that we seek out over plays. In general, people are more likely to feel comfortable taking the over in these contests. This is behavior that we also see prevalently in the betting world. With that in mind, suggesting under plays may not get DFS players as excited about Monkey Knife Fight’s exciting new offerings as over plays would.
If you have yet to sign up for Monkey Knife Fight, be sure to take advantage of the $10 free play they are offering. Simply sign up through this link, and enter the promo code “GET10FREE”, and enjoy your first contest on your friends at FantasyPros and Monkey Knife Fight.
Tyreek Hill (WR – KC) over 82.5 receiving yards
James White (RB – NE) over 4.5 receptions
This player combination was chosen due to projected game flow in a contest with a high over/under total. Hill was able to get the better of his matchup with Stephon Gilmore during their regular-season meeting last year. White, arguably the Patriots number two receiver, should be heavily involved in the passing game for the second straight week.
Tyreek Hill was much quieter than expected in a terrific Week 13 matchup against the Oakland Raiders. Mahomes threw for just 175 yards. Of the Chiefs five touchdowns, three came on the ground, and one was a pick-six by rookie safety Juan Thornhill. Tyreek’s numbers this season suggest the under is the safer play. The same can be said for his matchup against one of the elite corners in the NFL. The only reason we are going with the over here is because Hill was able to trounce Gilmore for seven receptions, 142 yards, and three touchdowns in New England last season. If this game becomes as tightly contested as expected, the Chiefs are going to need to throw, and Hill is still the Chiefs’ only reliable weapon at wide receiver.
James White is going to be needed in a contest the New England Patriots may very well be underdogs in if it was played on the road. We all saw how tightly contested last seasons matchups between these two teams were, and there is no denying that the Patriots offense has taken a step back from their 2018-19 product. James White hauled in five of his seven targets against the Chiefs in their regular-season meeting in 2018. He hauled in four of his six targets during the controversial Sony Michel dominated AFC Championship game. The Patriots have played just 3.5 playoff teams this season (the .5 being the 6-7, NFC East division-leading Dallas Cowboys). White has cleared 4.5 receptions in two of those three contests. The only time he was held under was by the Baltimore Ravens, a contest he hauled in two of his three targets. Against Buffalo and Houston, he hauled in eight receptions a piece from double-digit targets. White has cleared this total in six of his 11 contests this season.
Allen Lazard (WR – GB) over 44.5 receiving yards
Derrius Guice (RB – WAS) over 44.5 rushing yards
This player combination was chosen due to the ability of both players to clear this total on just one touch. Lazard has emerged as the Green Bay Packers number two receiver and is fresh off the best game of his career. Derrius Guice is also fresh off the best game of his young career and had a 60 yard run in Week 13.
Allen Lazard should get a chance to shine in a contest the Green Bay Packers are double-digit favorites in. Davante Adams is going to receive the bulk of the defensive attention from the secondary, leaving Lazard to have a field day against one on one man coverage or to eat up the soft spots in zone. Lazard has only crossed this total twice all season but has a plus matchup and the fabled momentum on his side. Aaron Rodgers had to be thrilled that Lazard finally had his breakout game of sorts, and will make a concerted effort to elevate his receiver even further in the hopes that he earns a role in the Packers 2020 receiver room.
Derrius Guice is averaging 50.8 rushing yards per game after his breakout 129 rushing yard performance in Week 13. In actuality, he has only cleared 44.5 rushing yards once all season, as his season average has been propped up by his thrashing of the Carolina Panthers. Guice played just 30 percent of the snaps last week but was still able to have a monster day. Even if we removed the 60-yard scamper from the equation, Guice still would have cleared this total on his nine carries. Guice is one of the more talented backs in the NFL and got to put his wares on display against the Panthers. The Packers are expected to win this contest pretty handily, which means Adrian Peterson could see his snaps reduced in favor of superior receivers Derrius Guice and Chris Thompson. Green Bay is a plus matchup for any running back. This is especially true when we are talking about one as talented as Guice. The Packers have allowed 4.92 yards per carry on the season. That is the fourth-highest mark in the entire NFL.
Two other player combinations that piqued our interest for this weekend’s contest have been listed below. The Kittle-Kamara combo was chosen due to the projected game flow for Kittle. It was selected for Kamara due to the 49ers allowing the 12th highest yards per carry against in the league. They were a rush defense to target before the Packers, Ravens, and Seahawks all recording 20 plus carries at less than four yards per pop skewed their numbers. Woods is going to be heavily involved with the Seahawks likely to focus their efforts on locking down Brandin Cooks with Shaquill Griffin while playing copycat and committing an extra defender to Cooper Kupp. Tyler Lockett has not been the same since returning from the hospital. He has been a superb decoy but appears to be playing at far less than 100 percent. He has just four receptions total and has averaged 21.33 receiving yards in his last three contests. Good luck this weekend.