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Monkey Knife Fight Best Bets Week 15 (2019 Fantasy Football)

by Raju Byfield | @FantasyContext | Featured Writer
Dec 14, 2019

Carlos Hyde is a good bet to go over 59.5 rushing yards this week.

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A.J. Brown (WR – TEN) over 62.5 receiving yards
Carlos Hyde (RB – HOU) over 59.5 rushing yards

This combination was chosen due to A.J. Brown’s recent hot play. The 62.5 total has enough appeal to target as a standalone prop play. The Carlos Hyde total has been set a few yards too low, and as a result appears to present strong value.

A.J. Brown has cleared 62.5 receiving yards in six of his 13 contests this season. He has cleared the total in four of the six contests in which he has seen five or more targets. Brown has posted at least 135 receiving yards in two of his last three contests, and should be able to have his way against a Houston Texans secondary that has played below expectations for much of the season. Bradley Roby is back, but that did not stop Drew Lock from embarrassing the Texans defense. This is a total to target wherever you can find it.

Carlos Hyde has cleared the 59.5 rushing yard total in nine of his 13 contests this season (he had 58 rushing yards in Week 4). The Titans are one of the league’s tougher defenses from a yards per carry perspective, but have surrendered over 59.5 rushing yards in nine of their 13 contests this season. Hyde, a weekly threat for one to two chunk plays, is tied for third in the league with eight carries of more than 20 yards. Despite many declaring Hyde’s career all but over when he signed with the Chiefs this offseason, Hyde is averaging 71.2 rushing yards per game at a 4.68 yards per carry clip for the Texans. He is just 74 yards away from the first 1,000 rushing yard campaign of his career.

Chris Conley (WR – JAX) over 54.5 receiving yards
Josh Jacobs (RB – OAK) over 72.5 rushing yards

This combination was selected due to D.J. Chark being ruled out for Week 15, leaving Conley with what should be an expanded role. Oakland Raiders rookie running back Josh Jacobs is facing a Jaguars defense that has struggled immensely against the run in recent weeks.

D.J. Chark has been ruled out against the Oakland Raiders, which should mean more targets for Chris Conley. He has cleared the 54.5 total in six of his 13 contests this season. Despite being fourth on the team in targets, Conley is second in receiving yards, air yards, and weighted opportunity ratio. He is first on the team in average depth of target. While Conley may be hard to trust in fantasy or for those who submit just one entry for DFS contests, he is a much safer bet to clear this posted total.

Jacobs is averaging 88.4 rushing yards per game on the season. He is expected to return this week for the Raiders’ final home game in Oakland. There are some potential workload concerns, but Jacobs should be fed on the ground as long as the Raiders can keep the game competitive. Jacobs has cleared 72.5 rushing yards in eight of his 12 contests this season. Jacksonville has relinquished 147 or more rushing yards to the running back position in four of their last five games. The only team that failed to reach that mark was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and they’re below replacement level running backs. Jacobs has averaged a robust 4.9 yards per carry on the season, and should easily clear the 72.5 rushing yard total against a team allowing 5.47 yards per carry to opposing running backs.

Julio Jones (WR – ATL) over 5.5 receptions
Raheem Mostert (RB – SF) over 59.5 rushing yards

This combination was chosen due to Raheem Mostert being named the San Francisco 49ers new starter. Calvin Ridley being sent to injured reserve should open up more targets and as a result more receptions for Julio Jones.

Calvin Ridley has been lost for the season. While to quarterback Matt Ryan this may mean feed Russell Gage on most afternoons, playing from behind with no Richard Sherman to cover Julio, should lead the talented receiver to his seventh outing of six or more receptions in his 12 games this season. Julio has cleared the posted total just once since Week 8, but this over play is about Calvin Ridley and his 7.15 targets being missing from the lineup. Reception plays are usually ones to actively avoid, but the 5.5 number presents enough of a value to chase due to it being attached to the very attractive Raheem Mostert total.

Raheem Mostert is the 49ers new starting running back and should see a high volume afternoon in a contest with a -10.5 consensus point spread. Mostert has forced his way into the starting lineup with his terrific play and has shown that he is the team’s most reliable runner. Mostert has cleared the posted total in five of the six contests in which he saw nine or more carries. He is an excellent bet to do so once again in his new role as a starter. There should be enough carries available for Mostert to go well over nine rushing attempts in this contest, especially if the 49ers go into fourth-quarter clock-killing mode as expected.

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Raju, check out his profile and follow him @FantasyContext.

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