Welcome to Monkey Knife Fight. Monkey Knife Fight is one of the more intriguing new entrants to the DFS arena. Instead of the traditional salary cap based contests, Monkey Knife Fight allows DFS players to put their fantasy football knowledge and predictive powers to the test.
They offer fantasy point and stat-based contests. Perhaps the most appealing of all of their offerings is the over/under (now called ‘more or less’) contests. In these contests, you can choose over/under totals for a preset combination of two to 10 players. Your win probability obviously goes down with the more players you add, but you receive an increased payout multiplier in exchange (similar to a parlay in sports betting).
Since Monkey Knife Fight’s fantasy point and stat-based totals are dynamic, meaning the total, total type, and pairings change throughout the week, it is important to search for favorable and advantageous total pairings to exploit on a daily basis. Ideally, when choosing a total pairing you want to feel extremely confident on one of the totals, and feel strongly enough about the other total to proceed with the wager. This week we will take a look at two of the total pairings that stood out the most. With multiple teams resting starters for Week 17, games offered are limited, which means that there are fewer options to choose from.
If you have yet to sign up for Monkey Knife Fight, be sure to take advantage of the $10 free play they are offering. Simply sign up through this link, and enter the promo code “GET10FREE”, and enjoy your first contest on your friends at FantasyPros and Monkey Knife Fight.
Those who have yet to sign up should be excited to know that Monkey Knife Fight is offering a limited time bonus for the holiday season that lasts until Dec 31st. MKF is offering a deposit match up to $100 (normal match maxes out at $50). Once the bonus is claimed, and you play in a contest, you are eligible for a second deposit match of up to $100 (bonus code will be e-mailed). The deposit matches are paid in MKF Dollars. MKF Dollars cannot be cashed out, so you will have to wager them on a contest before converting them to actual cash. There is zero rollover requirement.
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4x
Michael Thomas (WR – NO) over 8.5 receptions
Christian McCaffrey (RB – CAR) under 81.5 rushing yards
The total for the Michael Thomas receptions prop is lower than what we have seen from Monkey Knife Fight in recent weeks. The New Orleans Saints play at 1 pm and will be playing their starters for the entire game. The total has probably been set lower due to fear of the Saints going extremely run-heavy in the second half of a contest they are favored by 13 points in. Thomas has recorded eight or more receptions in 13 of his 15 contests this season. He should have more than six receptions in the first half this weekend, which means he will need only three or less in the second half. Thomas recorded 10 receptions, 101 yards, and a touchdown against the Carolina Panthers in Week 12, and is a strong bet to reach double-digit receptions for the fourth consecutive week. He has cleared 8.5 receptions in seven of his last nine contests.
The hope was that the Christian McCaffrey total would be receptions or receiving yards. Instead, we get the rushing total as Monkey Knife Fight looks to lower the potential win probability for players. McCaffrey is third in the NFL with 90.7 rushing yards per game, but he has been held under 81.5 rushing yards in five of his last six contests. Adding appeal to the under is the fact that McCaffrey averages just 76.2 rushing yards per contest in losses, compared to 112.5 in wins. He has been struggling on the ground recently, recording just 59.2 rushing yards per game in his four December contests. He faced the Saints in Week 12, and while he posted 133 yards from scrimmage, he recorded just 64 rushing yards on a putrid 2.9 yards per carry. If the McCaffrey total changes to receptions or receiving yards take over 5.5 receptions or over 70 receiving yards. The Panthers main Week 17 focus is helping their star running back join the 1k/1k club. With projected game script also leaning the Panthers away from the run, the under is the smart play.
4x
Marlon Mack (RB – IND) over 80.5 rushing yards
D.J. Chark (WR – JAX) over 57.5 receiving yards
Any above average running back against Jacksonville’s matador run defense is an immediate over lean. Mack is not only above average, but he runs behind a dominant offensive line. The Jaguars have surrendered 119.13 rushing yards per game to the running back position. They have done so at an AFC high 5.33 yards per carry against (the second-highest mark in the NFL). Jacksonville has allowed six of the last seven backfields they faced to eclipse 116 rushing yards on the ground. The Colts 236 rushing yards against them in Week 12 was not even the highest total of the season. Mack is far from an elite runner, as he has cleared this total in just five of his 13 contests this season. However, he has done so in two of his last four, one of those games being against the Jaguars in Week 12. Mack piled up 109 rushing yards on 14 Week 12 carries (7.79 yards per carry). Jonathan Williams also put up over 100 yards, ending the day with 116 rushing yards. Mack over 80.5 rushing yards against Jacksonville is one of the strongest values we have seen from Monkey Knife Fight all season.
D.J. Chark is not the ideal pairing for the Marlon Mack total, but the Mack line has such a high win probability that it would be hard to ignore any player attached to him. The under is the initial lean as D.J. Chark has surpassed 57.5 receiving yards in just two of his last five contests and in just six of his 14 contests on the season. He has recorded 644 of his 974 receiving yards in those six games, making him a boom or bust option in the truest sense. He put up just 18 receiving yards despite seven Week 16 targets but was elite the last time he faced the Colts. He trashed the Colts secondary for an eight reception, 104 receiving yard, two-touchdown outing in Week 11. Jacksonville and Indianapolis will be looking to finish their disappointing season on a high note with a Week 17 win. The Chargers will be force-feeding Chark as they attempt to get him to 1,000 receiving yards on the season. As such the over appears to be the more prudent play.
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Raju, check out his profile and follow him @FantasyContext.
