Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins

Total: 46.5
Line: MIA by 1.0

QBs
Andy Dalton: What did we really expect against the Patriots last week? Not only was it a brutal matchup, but he was without two of his top receivers in A.J. Green and Auden Tate. There have been some reports about Green potentially returning this week, though don’t believe it until you see it. The Dolphins have been a matchup to target with streamers, as they’ve now allowed multiple touchdown passes to 12-of-14 quarterbacks. Eli Manning‘s QB23 finish last week was just the third time this year a quarterback has finished outside the top-16 against them, with the first two being Sam Darnold and Brian Hoyer. The only team that’s allowed more fantasy points per pass attempt (removing all rushing production and points) is the Raiders. The Cardinals are third on that list, and they were a team Dalton was able to post 262 yards and two touchdowns against earlier this season. The reason the Dolphins haven’t allowed more fantasy points overall is due to quarterbacks averaging just 32.9 pass attempts against them. Week 15 was the first one Dalton threw fewer than 36 pass attempts, which obviously bodes well in this matchup. The issue is that Dalton hasn’t averaged more than 6.9 yards per attempt in each of his last nine starts, which obviously limits his ceiling. The only way I’d feel comfortable starting Dalton as anything more than a middling QB2 would be is if Green plays.

Ryan Fitzpatrick: He’s now finished with at least 20.4 fantasy points in five of his last nine games, including three of his last four. The lack of run-game has propped-up Fitzpatrick’s pass attempts, which is huge for his fantasy floor, as is the fact that he’s rushed for at least 33 yards in three of the last four games, another avenue for fantasy success. The Bengals have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this year, though they’re worse than that number suggests, as quarterbacks have averaged just 29.7 pass attempts per game against them with all the rushing success. We know by now that the Dolphins running backs aren’t going to succeed on the ground (3.03 yards per carry and four rushing touchdowns as a team), and it’s why Fitzpatrick has totaled at least 37 pass attempts in each of the last five games. The 8.12 yards per attempt the Bengals have allowed is tied for the third-highest mark in the league. The 4.33 percent touchdown-rate is low for a team allowing this type of yardage, though I’d attribute that to the fact that they can’t stop the run on the goal-line. It’s really odd, though. There have been just four quarterbacks who’ve finished outside the top-16 against them, and all four of them have come over the last four games. It’s highly unlikely they’ve changed that much as a team that’s won just one game all year. Fitzpatrick is on the high-end QB2 radar and can be considered a solid streaming option with a stable floor.

RBs
Joe Mixon: Going back to the start of Week 8, Mixon has accumulated 671 yards on 147 carries (4.6 yards per carry) with three touchdowns, and another 151 yards and one touchdown through the air. That’s a span of seven games where he’s averaged 23.4 touches with 117.4 total yards and 0.57 touchdowns per game. He’s been playing like a man on a mission, as there appears to be multiple highlight reel plays every week. The matchup against the Dolphins is one of the best he could ask for, as they’ve allowed 178.3 total yards per game to running backs this year, including 169 total yards and three touchdowns to the Giants backfield last week. There hasn’t been a game this season where they’ve allowed fewer than 114 total yards to opposing running backs. This bodes well for Mixon, who’s accounted for 83.2 percent of the Bengals running back touches over the last seven games. Saquon Barkley was the ninth running back who’s posted top-12 numbers against them. This is your reminder that they’ve played just 14 games. Mixon should be locked-in as an RB1 this week and considered in cash-game lineups.

Patrick Laird: There are going to be a lot of fantasy owners dropping Laird after his 54-yard performance against the Giants last week. We’d talked about how much better the Giants had been against the run, but we were relying on work in the pass-game. With Parker and Wilson cleared to play, it removed some of that opportunity, though his five targets should’ve been enough to produce. The Dolphins also gave Myles Gaskin 12 opportunities in that game, which takes away some of the locked-in volume we were relying on. Against the Bengals, he is still on the fantasy radar. There hasn’t been a game this year where the Bengals didn’t allow at least one top-30 running back. In fact, there’s been just two weeks where they didn’t allow at least one top-24 running back, which is RB2 territory. But the Dolphins run-game is an outlier themselves, as the team of running backs has combined to average just 3.02 yards per carry this year while scoring four total touchdowns, all rushing. It doesn’t hurt that running backs average 29.6 touches per game against the Bengals, though. Laird isn’t likely going to be the savior in your fantasy football season, but if you’re looking for someone who’ll likely net a fantasy floor of 8-10 PPR points, he can fill that void as a low-end RB3.

WRs
Tyler Boyd: This season for Boyd can best be described as “hit-or-miss” now that he’s finished as a top-20 receiver four times, while finishing as the WR59 or worse four times. The good news is that this should be one of those top-20 performances when they visit the Dolphins this weekend. Boyd has seen at least six targets in every one of Dalton’s starts, including double-digit targets in six of them. There have been nine wide receivers who’ve seen at least eight targets against the Dolphins, and every single one of them has totaled 15.6 or more PPR points. They’ve had to shift cornerbacks all over the place this year, as they’ve lost Xavien Howard, Bobby McCain, Cordrea Tankersley, and Ken Webster to injured reserve. That’s not even counting the loss of safety Reshad Jones and the trading of Minkah Fitzpatrick. They’ve fielded 12 different cornerbacks in 2019, the most in the NFL. Jomal Wiltz is the one Boyd will see most of – a former undrafted free agent in 2017 that hadn’t played until this year. He’s allowed a 65 percent catch-rate and four touchdowns on 57 targets in coverage. Boyd should be in lineups as a low-end WR2 this week.

John Ross and Alex Erickson: Ross has played just 61-of-139 available snaps since returning to the lineup, as Erickson has played in front of him. The targets have been 6-to-4 for Erickson, so it’s not a massive difference, but they’re cancelling each other out for fantasy purposes. There have been just 17 wide receivers who’ve finished as top-36 options against the Dolphins (essentially one per game), as teams just don’t have to throw the ball a whole lot against them. They have allowed 2.02 PPR points per target, which ranks as the second-highest mark in football, but it’s hard to find more than 3-5 targets for either of these receivers. Despite the plus-matchup, you don’t want to rely on these guys for anything more than WR5 production. If forced to pick one, I’d go Ross, as the Dolphins have allowed 61 pass plays to go for 20-plus yards, the fourth-highest number in the league.

DeVante Parker: After getting cleared from his concussion late in the week, many were torn on whether they should play Parker. He didn’t disappoint, totaling four catches for 72 yards and two touchdowns. Since the start of Week 4, Parker has finished as a top-32 receiver in every game he didn’t get concussed in. That’s 10 straight games of a WR3 floor with multiple top-10 games mixed-in. Now on to play the Bengals, who’ve actually allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers on the year. How is that possible? They’ve faced an average of just 16.4 targets per game, which certainly helps, as that’s the third-lowest mark in the league. The 9.05 yards per target they’ve allowed ranks as the sixth-highest mark in the league, so volume is key here. Parker has totaled at least six targets in each of the last eight non-concussion games, including five games with 10-plus targets. He’ll see a combination of all three Bengals cornerbacks this week, as they don’t do any shadowing and Parker doesn’t line up at one spot more than 40 percent of the time. He should remain in lineups as a stable WR2 in Week 16.

Allen Hurns/Isaiah Ford: This is a tough one to decipher, as we watched Hurns get out-targeted by Ford last week (Ford 5, Hurns 1) while they split snaps (Hurns 33, Ford 31). This could be a situation where the Dolphins are figuring out whether Ford is a part of their future alongside Parker and Preston Williams. Whatever the case is, you cannot trust either of them in fantasy with the split role. The matchup may be good, but anyone who tells you which will get more targets this week is simply guessing with that snap split. It’s possible that both finish with less than five targets against a team that sees just 16.4 wide receiver targets per game.

TEs
Tyler Eifert: With all the targets that were going to Auden Tate having to be divvied up, we’ve seen Eifert targeted nine times over the last two weeks, while turning them into seven catches for 93 yards. He’s still scored just one touchdown since Week 2, but we have to take what we can get at tight end, and he’s now on the radar. The Dolphins haven’t been a matchup where tight ends have absolutely smashed, as just two tight ends have finished better than the TE11 and one of them was Mark Andrews way back in Week 1. The 1.70 PPR points per target they’ve allowed to the position is right around the league average, so it’s not even a lack of volume. It’s not a great matchup, but it’s also not bad. That’s kind of the definition of Eifert’s performances as of late. If he doesn’t score, he’s not going to make up for it with his yardage totals. Consider him a middling TE2 who’s not the worst last-minute option.

Mike Gesicki: With the number of targets Gesicki has seen since Week 9, he should be considered an every-week must-start at the tight end position, but he’s really not. He’s totaled 45 targets over his last seven games, a number that only Zach Ertz and Travis Kelce have topped in that time. He hasn’t seen fewer than five targets in that stretch, including six-plus targets in 6-of-7 games. That’s elite volume at tight end, so when you see a matchup with the Bengals on deck, you get excited. Some may be looking at the fact that the Bengals have allowed the eighth-fewest points to the tight end position and wonder why we should get excited. It’s because volume works against them. They’ve allowed a massive 8.76 yards per target to tight ends, which ranks third-most in the league. They’ve only faced an average of 5.6 tight end targets per game, which has limited the output against them. There have been just five tight ends who’ve totaled more than three targets against them, and their finishes were TE1, TE4, TE7, TE9, and TE19. Gesicki is someone who should be considered a low-end TE1 this week who should come with a stable floor.

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns

Total: 49.0
Line: BAL by 10.0

QBs
Lamar Jackson: We’ve all heard the rumors about the Ravens potentially resting Jackson in Week 17, but do they start cutting back his workload as soon as Week 16? It’s not like you’re going to sit him or anything, though there were many readers asking me about whether they should play him last week with the reported quad injury. Look, you wouldn’t be here without him, and the Ravens have done nothing on the field that suggests they’ll rest him, as he played practically the entire game against the Jets in a blowout. Now on to the matchup with the Browns, who allowed four rushing touchdowns to Kenyan Drake last week. Prior to that game, the Cardinals running backs had combined for seven rushing touchdowns all season. The Browns have been a mediocre pass defense on the year, though the loss of Myles Garrett hurt, and they’ve been missing Olivier Vernon essentially since back in Week 9 (tried to return in Week 13 but had to leave). That’s their two best edge rushers. Good luck catching Jackson. The Browns played him back in Week 4 where he tallied 247 yards and three touchdowns through the air, while totaling 66 yards on the ground. That was one of five performances they’ve allowed at least 23 fantasy points to the opposing quarterback. The only team that’s allowed more fantasy points on the ground to quarterbacks is the Bengals, and that’s only because they played Jackson twice. Even if you were to take away all of his rushing, Jackson would be the No. 10 quarterback in fantasy football, right between Patrick Mahomes and Carson Wentz. But when you add in his 152.3 fantasy points on the ground, he has 73.9 more fantasy points than Deshaun Watson, the next highest-scoring quarterback. Did you know Jackson is just 31.2 fantasy points off the all-time record for fantasy points in a season that was set by Mahomes last year? Start him as you normally would.

Baker Mayfield: He’s coming off another horrible game where he just can’t seem to connect with his receivers, though his final stats don’t look as bad with his garbage time production. He’s now finished outside of the top-12 quarterbacks in 11-of-14 games, and the pending matchup against the Ravens isn’t a good one for fantasy quarterbacks. They’ve allowed just one quarterback to finish as a top-12 quarterback all season. There’s been just one who’s finished with more than 15.8 fantasy points, and it was Patrick Mahomes way back in Week 3. Outside of that game, they have allowed just eight passing touchdowns in their other 13 games. That’s… not ideal. It’s not just the touchdowns, either. They’ve held every quarterback they’ve played to less than 8.0 yards per attempt since way back in Week 4. Mayfield was the quarterback they played in Week 4 when he completed 20-of-30 passes for 342 yards and one touchdown, though it’s important to note the Ravens were without defensive tackle Brandon Williams, cornerback Jimmy Smith, and didn’t have cornerback Marcus Peters at that time. Mayfield is not someone you should aim to stream in fantasy championships.

RBs
Mark Ingram: Despite walking into a tough matchup with the Jets (who were shorthanded on defense), Ingram came out of that game with 86 total yards and two touchdowns. The Ravens offense is clicking on all cylinders right now, making it hard to bench someone like Ingram, even if he relies on touchdowns for a lot of his production. It’s not like you’d think about benching him against the team that just allowed 143 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns to the Cardinals running backs last week. The Cardinals running backs had combined for just seven touchdowns all season coming into that game. That was the third time they’ve allowed multiple touchdowns to a running back, and the sixth time they’ve allowed a running back to finish as a top-six option against them. Ingram did rack up 71 yards on 12 carries the first time they played but failed to score a touchdown, resulting in just an RB39 finish. That was one of just three times this year where a running back saw at least 10 carries against them and didn’t finish as a top-24 running back. Over the last three games, the Browns have allowed the Steelers, Bengals, and Cardinals backfields to total at least 105 rushing yards and one touchdown in each game, so the Ravens might be catching them right when the wheels are falling off. Ingram should be in lineups as an RB2, though as usual, he needs to score to finish in that territory with his limited involvement in the passing game.

Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt: It seems like the Browns should run the ball more, right? It’s rare to have a running back averaging 5.2 yards per carry and leading the league in rushing yards on a bad football team, but that’s what you have in Chubb. If you were to go back to the Week 4 matchup between him and the Ravens, you’d see it was his biggest performance of the year where he posted 165 yards and three touchdowns on the ground with another 18 yards through the air. It’s important to note that defensive tackle Brandon Williams was out for that game, and he’s the key cog up the middle of their defense. Whenever he’s missed games over the last handful of years, they’ve struggled to shut down opposing run games. That was the only game the Ravens allowed multiple rushing touchdowns to a team of running backs, highlighting how tough the matchup has been. Still, the ground is where you attack the Ravens. They’ve allowed a rather-high 4.51 yards per carry, but the reason they’ve been a top-five defense against running backs is due to the lack of touches. Teams have averaged just 22.3 touches per game against them, which stems from them allowing just 58.4 plays per game. When you add Hunt into the mix, there’s suddenly not a whole lot of touches to go around. Over the six games with this duo, the touch split has been Chubb 126, Hunt 68, so essentially a 65/35 split, though Hunt is getting the majority of targets, which are worth more than twice as much as carries. In actual opportunity, it’s closer to a 55/45 split. The time of possession and lack of plays will be an issue if the Browns defense can’t slow down Lamar Jackson, and we’ve seen every team have that issue, so why should we think that ends now? Chubb should be in lineups as a high-end RB2 who may not get as many touches as he’s used to. Hunt’s role is in trouble this week, too, as the Ravens have allowed just 100.1 PPR points through the air to running backs, the second-fewest in the league. He’s still in the middling RB3 conversation with how efficient he’s been, but don’t expect him to record more than 7-10 touches in this tough matchup.

WRs
Marquise Brown: It was good for him to get in the end zone against the Jets as his target share remained in the gutter. He’s now totaled just nine targets over the last three games combined and hasn’t seen more than four targets in six of the last seven games. He only moves into the slot just 38 percent of the time, which means he’ll have a tougher matchup on the perimeter with Greedy Williams and Denzel Ward, the two best cornerbacks on the Browns roster. They’ve combined to allow just a 51.9 percent catch-rate in their coverage, so targets have been necessary for production. They haven’t been prone to allowing the big plays this year, either, so nothing stands out from a “must-play” perspective with Brown. If you’re playing him, you’re doing it because of how well Jackson is playing and you’re willing to bet against the odds because of it. From an odds standpoint, he’s just a mid-to-low-end WR4 this week.

Willie Snead: He hasn’t totaled more than 18 yards since way back in Week 5, finishing with 12-18 yards in all but one game, but he has scored three touchdowns in the last four games, so we should at least look at the matchup. It just so happens that the Browns biggest weakness is in the slot, where they’ve allowed 57-of-85 passing for 608 yards and four touchdowns in coverage. Snead accounted for 61 yards and a touchdown of that in Week 4 on just two targets. That’s been the story of the season for Snead, who’s had to get the job done on minimal targets (no more than four targets since Week 6), which is something you just can’t rely on in fantasy football.

Jarvis Landry: The turmoil has reached the point where Landry is reportedly telling opponents to “come and get me.” He was yelling at head coach Freddie Kitchens on the sideline, too. Add in a five-catch, 23-yard performance against the Cardinals, and his owners are in full-on panic-mode. It doesn’t help that he’ll see a lot of Marlon Humphrey in this matchup, the Ravens slot-heavy cornerback who’s allowed 48-of-80 passing for 517 yards and three touchdowns in his coverage this year. That may sound really good, and it is, but the 81.1 QB Rating he’s allowed is the highest mark among Ravens cornerbacks. So, essentially, it’s the best matchup among the Browns wide receivers, but it’s still not a situation you must attack. There have been just 15 wide receivers who’ve finished top-30 against the Ravens, with exactly one in each of their last six games. You essentially need to figure out which Browns receiver you want to bank on, and it’s been Landry for much of the season, including the first time these two teams met where Landry racked-up eight catches for 167 yards. It’s important to note that Humphrey wasn’t covering the slot at that point in the season (was Brandon Carr). Landry should be considered the best play on the Browns, though he’s more of a WR3 this week than the high-end WR2 he’s been most of the season.

Odell Beckham: Another week has gone by and another week where Beckham owners are feeling the hangover of drafting him in the first round. He did see 13 targets last week against the Cardinals, though his 8/66/0 stat line was an absolute disappointment. His disappointing season is likely to continue in Week 16, as the Ravens perimeter cornerback duo of Jimmy Smith and Marcus Peters have combined to allow just 49-of-92 passing for 514 yards and three touchdowns since Peters joined the team prior to the trade deadline. That amounts to just 5.59 yards per target and a touchdown every 30.7 targets. Neither Smith nor Peters played in the Week 4 matchup between these two teams when Beckham totaled just two catches for 20 yards on seven targets, so you can’t automatically say it’ll be a repeat performance. Here are some notable perimeter receivers they’ve played as of late: Robby Anderson 4/66/0, John Brown 3/26/0, Emmanuel Sanders 4/41/0, and Robert Woods 6/97/0. Knowing they’ve allowed just one perimeter wide receiver touchdown over the last six games, it’s not a great time to rely on that, either. Beckham should be considered a mid-to-low-end WR3 who’s not a must-start.

TEs
Mark Andrews: Despite coming into the Jets game with a highly questionable tag, Andrews saw seven targets, turning them into 4/52/1. There could’ve been more if not for a few penalties, but his owners should be happy with the outcome. Knowing he’ll have had 10 days rest; he should be ready to rock against the Browns this week. Andrews doesn’t see elite volume like Kelce, Ertz, or Kittle, but he’s been as efficient as possible while averaging 13.1 yards per catch and a touchdown every 11.1 targets. The Browns are the ideal opponent for someone like him, as they’ve allowed just the 12th-fewest fantasy points to tight ends this year, though it’s only because they’ve faced the sixth-fewest targets. On a per-target basis, they’ve allowed 1.99 PPR points, which ranks as the third-highest mark in the league, behind only the Cardinals and Jaguars. Andrews tallied four catches for 31 yards and a touchdown against them back in Week 4 when he was highly questionable with a different injury that week. Knowing the Browns have allowed three tight ends to total 19-plus PPR points against them, you aren’t even contemplating sitting Andrews, who is a rock-solid TE1.

David Njoku: After being ruled out due to a coach’s decision, it’s going to be impossible to trust Njoku this week, even if he is active. The Ravens aren’t a particularly great matchup for tight ends, either, as they’ve allowed the fewest points to the tight ends this year. They’ve allowed an average of just 7.94 PPR points per game to the position, as just two tight ends have been able to reach 35 yards against them all season. Njoku is off the fantasy radar.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Atlanta Falcons

Total: 45.5
Line: ATL by 7.0

QBs
Gardner Minshew: Since taking over for Nick Foles in Week 13, Minshew has been somewhat mediocre. He’s completed 57-of-93 passes for 509 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception. That amounts to just 5.47 yards per attempt, which doesn’t mesh well with the fact that the Falcons have allowed just 149-of-228 passing for 1,602 yards, six touchdowns, and eight interceptions in the six games since their bye week. There are a few pieces of glimmering hope for Minshew, though. The Falcons did lose starting cornerback Desmond Trufant in Week 13 and then lost one their best edge defenders in Takk McKinley for the season this week. There’s only so much a defense can take and though the Falcons defense has stepped-up, we may have reached the point where they fall apart. They were already the team who produced the second-least amount of pressure on opposing quarterbacks behind only the Dolphins. His ceiling depends on whether Chark plays, but he’s certainly in the high-end QB2 conversation as someone who still uses his legs to provide a stable floor, as evidenced by his 27-plus rushing yards in seven of his last nine starts.

Matt Ryan: Despite the 49ers defense missing nearly half their starters, Ryan didn’t have a top-tier performance, finishing with 210 yards and two touchdowns. He’s now gone seven straight weeks where he’s failed to finish as a top-10 quarterback, and it all stems back to the ankle injury he suffered in Week 7. From there, he lost Mohamed Sanu, then Austin Hooper for a length of time, and then Calvin Ridley for the year. The Jaguars defense isn’t a team that’s playing for much and there’s now reports circulating that 25 percent of the grievances filed to the player’s association have been filed by Jaguars players. On a level playing field, that number should be at 3.1 percent. While that’s somewhat narrative driven, the Jaguars have looked like a team that’s given up on the season. After generating pressure at least 38.6 percent of the time in 6-of-10 games to start the year, they’ve haven’t generated more than 35.9 percent in each of the last four games, including three games with less than 29 percent. While injuries to Marcell Dareus and Myles Jack certainly don’t help, the team is not one to fear. The Raiders were the first team since back in Week 8 who scored less than 26 points against them, and the Falcons have totaled 27 passing touchdowns on the year compared to just eight rushing touchdowns. Despite everything the Jaguars have gone through, there’ve been just four quarterbacks who’ve thrown for more than 276 yards. With the production they’re allowing on the ground, it could eat into Ryan’s fantasy floor this week, making him a risk/reward QB2 this week with a lower floor than guys like Gardner Minshew and Ryan Fitzpatrick, though he may have a slightly higher ceiling.

RBs
Leonard Fournette: There has been not one game all season where Fournette has received fewer than 15 opportunities (carries and targets). In fact, there’s just three games where he’s had fewer than 21 opportunities. That’s all fine and dandy, but he’s finished better than the RB10 just three times all season, and just once since Week 5. Will a matchup against the Falcons bring out the best in him? They rank as the 13th-best team in the NFL on a point-per-opportunity basis, right behind the Eagles and Bears. If you knew Fournette was going against those teams, you’d worry about his efficiency, right? The Falcons did lose edge rusher Takk McKinley this week to injured reserve, and he was likely their best run defender on the edge. Still, there’s been just two 100-yard rushers against the Falcons all year, which comes despite five running backs tallying 18-plus carries against them. The 4.06 yards per carry and 5.37 yards per target are both below the league average, so it’s difficult to see Fournette suddenly breaking out for a 25-point performance. You’re starting him as a low-end RB1 with his opportunity and hoping his production matches his elite usage.

Devonta Freeman and Brian Hill: It’s been a miserable season for Freeman from a production standpoint. He’s failed to top 88 yards on the ground all season and has failed to top 51 rushing yards in 9-of-12 games. The matchup with the Jaguars, however, is simply too good to pass up. They’ve now allowed a ridiculous 5.30 yards per carry on the season, including 939 yards on 162 carries (5.80 yards per carry) with nine rushing touchdowns over the last six weeks. In those six games, they’ve allowed 10 running backs to finish as top-25 options against them, including multiple rushing touchdowns in four of their last five games. The only team that didn’t total at least 167 total yards was the Bucs, whose running backs finished the game with just 66 total yards, though they did find the end zone twice. We played Freeman as a low-end RB1 against the Panthers a couple weeks ago and he came through as the RB11 that week. You should be willing to trust him as a high-end RB2 at the very least this week.

WRs
D.J. Chark: After getting positive news from the medical staff, Chark was out running routes on Monday, which bodes well for his chances to suit up this weekend against the Falcons. It’s definitely a situation to pay attention to throughout the week, and as usual, I’ll update the bottom of his notes by Saturday morning. The matchup with the Falcons is a good one, as they’re left starting Isaiah Oliver and Kendall Sheffield at cornerback with Desmond Trufant going to injured reserve. That duo has combined to allow 87-of-125 passing for 1,055 yards and four touchdowns in their coverage. That’s a solid 8.44 yards per target in coverage. There have been 21 wide receivers who’ve finished as top-40 options against the Falcons, with 12 of them finishing as top-24 options. Chark hadn’t been posting auto-start numbers over his last five games, as three of them netted 47 yards or less, though Foles did have something to do with that. If he suits up, it’s a better-than-average matchup, though he does come with risk of re-injury after being in a walking boot just last week. Because of that, consider him a middling WR3 who has a wide range of outcomes. *Update* Chark is listed as questionable after getting in limited practices all week, though Doug Marrone has stated he expects Chark to play. Regardless, he comes with risk of re-injury, which keeps him in the risk/reward WR3 territory. 

Chris Conley: Filling in as the No. 1 receiver with Chark on the shelf, Conley led the team with eight targets. He turned them into four receptions for 49 yards and two touchdowns, netting a top-12 finish in Week 15. While Chark seems to be coming back this week, he may be doing so at less than 100 percent and it’s not like Conley wasn’t involved with Chark in the offense, as he’d seen 47 targets from Week 7-14, which ranked 35th among receivers. This is pretty crazy, but the Falcons are nearly a mirror image of the Raiders team they played last week. Well, from a fantasy perspective, anyway. Take a look at this chart.

The Falcons also lost starting cornerback Desmond Trufant in Week 14 and edge rusher Takk McKinley in Week 15, so we should only expect those numbers to get worse. Conley remains in the WR4 conversation even if Chark returns and should have a stable floor. If Chark sits, he gets moved into WR3 territory. *Update* Chark is expected to play, though he was limited in practice throughout the week. Chark should be considered an upside WR4 option who should still net six-plus targets. 

Dede Westbrook: We talked about the fact that the Raiders had been better against the slot in recent weeks and it clearly hampered Westbrook’s day, as he tallied just two catches for 14 yards last week. The measly four targets were the most surprising part, especially when you consider the fact that Chark was out. That was his lowest target total of the season in games he wasn’t injured. Now on to play the Falcons, a team that’s also done well against slot receivers. Kendall Sheffield is the one they have defending the slot, a fourth-round rookie who’s allowed 7.67 yards per target in his coverage with just one touchdown on 49 targets. He also has plenty of speed (4.32-second 40-yard-dash) to hang with Westbrook, so it’s tough to say Westbrook will surely snap out of his funk in this matchup, as he’s failed to record more than 69 yards in each of his last six games, including 32 yards or less in four of them. He’s more of a mid-to-low-end WR4 this week than someone you should be aiming to play.

Julio Jones: We figured Jones would get a nice bump in targets with Calvin Ridley on injured reserve, but 20 targets? He took care of business against a banged-up 49ers defense last week, compiling 13 receptions for 134 yards and two touchdowns. He’s going to see a lot of A.J. Bouye in coverage this week, the Jaguars top cornerback who’s been sturdy this year in coverage, though not dominant. He’s allowed 44-of-70 passing for 620 yards and three touchdowns in his coverage, which amounts to a 99.7 QB Rating in his coverage. There have been six wide receivers who’ve seen double-digit targets against the Jaguars. Four of them have finished with 16.9 or more PPR points, while Tyler Boyd (10.5) and Mike Evans (9.3) didn’t. The matchup with Bouye isn’t a dream scenario, but let’s not pretend like you’re going to sit Jones, who’s likely to see double-digit targets. He should be considered a middling WR1 with a solid floor.

Russell Gage: His targets got a bump with Ridley out of the lineup, though it didn’t amount to much against the 49ers as he caught 5-of-6 targets for 27 yards. He did play a season-high 76.1 percent of snaps, so he did get a slight bump in playing time, too. The Jaguars have D.J. Hayden covering the slot, and that hasn’t been very profitable for fantasy players, as he’s allowed just a 62.9 percent catch-rate and 5.17 yards per target in his coverage. Those are both elite marks in the slot, making Gage an afterthought in fantasy leagues this week. His floor/ceiling combo doesn’t justify anything more than a WR5-type start.

TEs
Seth DeValve and Nick O’Leary: So much for finding any value out of the Jaguars tight end unit. It was a three-way timeshare last week, as DeValve led the way with 29 snaps, O’Leary 21, and Ben Koyack 20. It appears DeValve is the one who’ll run the most pass routes, but it’s clearly a mess. The Falcons have allowed just a 64.8 percent completion-rate to the tight end position, which is the sixth-lowest mark in the league, so targets are something you’d like/need to see. They have allowed eight different tight ends finish as top-12 options against them, but six of them have seen six-plus targets, including five of them with 10-plus targets. There’s not enough certainty to start either of these guys, but if forced to pick one, it’d be DeValve.

Austin Hooper: The good news is that Hooper hasn’t lost his targets since returning to the offense, as he’s totaled six of them in each of the two games. The bad news is that he’s turned them into just five receptions for 52 yards in the two games combined. Last week was a tough matchup against the 49ers, though they were dealing with a lot of injuries. Hooper did seem to catch a touchdown, but it was overturned as the ball grazed the ground in the process. The Jaguars have not been a tough matchup for tight ends, allowing the second-most PPR points per target (2.08) to the position, behind only the Cardinals. There have been just four tight ends who’ve seen more than four targets against them, and each of them finished as top-13 options with 11.1 or more PPR points. Knowing Julio Jones has a tougher matchup with A.J. Bouye and Russell Gage with D.J. Hayden, Hooper should be the focal point of the pass-attack and knowing Darren Waller tagged the Jaguars for 8/122/0 last week should make you feel about playing him as a high-end TE1.

New York Giants at Washington Redskins

Total: 41.5
Line: WAS by 2.5

QBs
Daniel Jones or Eli Manning: We may not know who the Giants starter is until later in the week, but for now, we’ll prepare like Jones will be able to return from his high ankle sprain, as we’re nearing three weeks. If the Giants want to get him into the offseason on a high note, they should have him out there against the Redskins, if possible. They’ve been a solid confidence-builder for quarterbacks, allowing a 69.0 percent completion-rate, though it may not be great for fantasy players. There have been just four quarterbacks who’ve thrown more than 33 pass attempts against them due to lack of competence on the other side of the ball, as the Redskins offense has had a hard time keeping the game competitive. The odd part here is that the Redskins are favored by 2.5 points. Jones and the Giants beat them 24-3 way back in Week 4, which was Jones’ second career start. In that game, he completed 23-of-31 passes for 225 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. There have been seven quarterbacks who’ve accounted for three-plus touchdowns against the Redskins, but there’s also been six quarterbacks who’ve accounted for 0-1 total touchdowns. Jones has been hit-or-miss all season, but the reason he should be faded is due to his ankle. If he doesn’t have the mobility he usually does, it crushes his fantasy floor, which was already low to begin with (six games with 12.3 or less fantasy points). Jones should be considered a very-risky mid-to-low-end QB2 if he plays. *Update* Jones is going to start for the Giants this week. 

Dwayne Haskins: Last week was the best of Haskins’ young career by a long shot, as he completed 19-of-28 passes for 261 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions against a struggling Eagles secondary. It was still just his second game with double-digit fantasy points in six starts, so it’s not like you’re contemplating him, right? To be fair, the Giants have made a lot of quarterbacks fantasy relevant this year. We’re now entering Week 16 and there’s been just two quarterbacks who’ve failed to finish as top-12 options. Crazy, right? Well, Haskins/Keenum combined to be one of them when they completed just 15-of-28 passes with no touchdowns and four interceptions in Week 4. The Giants defense six interceptions in the other 13 games they’ve played. They also released their best cornerback Janoris Jenkins last week. But here’s the issue… Haskins hasn’t thrown the ball more than 29 times in each of his last four starts. When throwing the ball that little, you need a sky-high yards per attempt and a high yards per attempt. Well, Haskins has topped 6.5 yards per attempt in one start and hasn’t thrown for more than two touchdowns. The matchup is enticing, but he’s just a risky low-end QB2.

RBs
Saquon Barkley: Those who drafted Barkley at No. 1 overall were waiting for a performance like last week’s when he racked-up 143 total yards and two touchdowns, though it may have been too little too late. The volume should be there again this week, as running backs have averaged a league-high 32.3 touches per game against the Redskins. The discrepancy in plays is what allows that, as their opponents have averaged 67.0 plays per game, while they’ve averaged just 54.2 themselves. The Giants offense have been on the lesser side of plays this year as well, though their difference is just 3.7 plays. But knowing Barkley has totaled at least 18 opportunities in each of the last eight games combined with the fact that the Redskins face 32.3 running back touches per game is huge for his floor in this game. It also helps that the Giants have three viable weapons at receiver, which should lighten defensive fronts for Barkley. We’ve watched both Aaron Jones and Miles Sanders have career days against the Redskins the last two weeks, as Jones tallied 192 total yards and a touchdown, while Sanders hit 172 total yards and two touchdowns. That’s back-to-back 30-point games to running backs. With Barkley coming off his personal best game of the season, he’s obviously locked-in as a high-end RB1 in this game.

Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson: Ever since Bill Callahan took over for Jay Gruden, Peterson has averaged 15.9 carries per game that have netted a solid 4.7 yards per carry. He’s only scored three touchdowns as the offense continues to struggle putting points on the board, but knowing he’s totaled at least 13 carries in 7-of-9 games, he’s on the fantasy map. The Giants defense has been playing much better against the run over their last five games, allowing just 355 yards on 114 carries (3.11 yards per carry) with two touchdowns over their last five games, as the addition of Leonard Williams has helped up the middle of the field. The last running back who topped 59 yards on the ground against them was Ezekiel Elliott way back in Week 9. The good news for Peterson is that running backs have averaged 29.9 touches per game against the Giants. When you factor in that the Redskins run the ball 41 percent of the time (13th-highest mark in football), there should be a lot of touches available in this game. The Redskins are also home favorites, which has good correlation with fantasy points. Peterson has the looks of a middling RB3 who should offer a decent floor, though upside is limited due to his lack of usage in the passing game. Thompson’s usage was disappointing last week with no Derrius Guice in the lineup, as Josh Ferguson even stole snaps. The Giants have allowed 6.38 yards per target to running backs, which is above the league average, though they are one of two teams who’ve still yet to allow a receiving touchdown to running backs. Knowing Thompson has maxed out at seven touches since his return, he’s nothing more than a middling RB4.

WRs
Sterling Shepard: He jumped back into the No. 1 receiver last week while leading the team with 11 targets, nine receptions, and 111 yards, though he was the lone receiver who failed to find the end zone. That’s now a minimum of seven targets in all eight games, with nine-plus targets in five of them. This is elite volume, even if it’s coming from less-than-stellar quarterback play. The Redskins have been mixing and matching cornerbacks, though there’s not a combination that’s been very good in coverage. They also lost Jimmy Moreland to an injury last week, so they may have to go back to Josh Norman, who played just six snaps last week but still managed to allow a touchdown in his coverage. The Redskins have allowed the 13th-fewest points to the wide receiver position, but that’s due to volume, as they’ve allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per target to them. There hasn’t been a wide receiver who’s seen more than six targets (Shepard has every game) and not finished as a top-40 wide receiver, and that includes Shepard who totaled 7/76/0 against them in Week 4. Because of that, Shepard should be in lineups as a high-floor WR3 this week.

Darius Slayton: He came down with a touchdown last week, saving what would have been a disastrous fantasy day. He saw just three targets, which is a massive letdown for a guy who’d seen 38 targets the previous four games. He is clearly the most volatile among the Giants receivers and his floor would be even shakier if Evan Engram returns to the lineup. The Redskins have faced just 16.1 wide receiver targets per game this year, as teams haven’t had to throw a ton to move the ball. That’s led to them allowing just 17 wide receivers to finish as top-36 options, which is the WR3 territory we look for. It was a similar story against the Dolphins last week, as they’d seen minimal wide receiver targets as well. He’s also going to see Quinton Dunbar about 55-60 percent of the time, who happens to be the best cornerback on the Redskins this year, allowing just a 55.8 percent catch-rate and two touchdowns on 52 targets in coverage. Slayton has shown he comes with a ceiling, but he’s also shown us he has a three-target floor, and that’s with Engram out of the lineup. He should be considered a boom-or-bust WR4. *Update* Dunbar has been ruled out for this game, which gives Slayton a solid bump in his matchup. He’s more of a high-end WR4 with upside, though he still comes with as the third option (at best) in the passing game. 

Golden Tate: He’s now caught just one pass in each of the last two games, which is obviously not ideal. The fantasy results were there against the Dolphins due to a 51-yard touchdown catch, but one catch against them is extremely worrisome. The Dolphins hadn’t seen many targets to the wide receiver position all year, so we did figure someone would disappoint from the Giants receiver corps, but there shouldn’t have been a scenario Tate caught one ball. The Redskins are a similar opponent, as they’ve faced the second-fewest targets to the wide receiver position (16.1 per game). Slot cornerback Jimmy Moreland was in a walking boot after last week’s game, which likely means Tate will match-up with Danny Johnson, a former undrafted free agent who’s allowed 16-of-19 passing for 186 yards and two touchdowns in his coverage over his short two-year career. Moreland himself isn’t very good, either, but it would be an upgrade for Tate. He should be considered a high-end WR4 whose targets are worrisome, but the matchup is almost too good to pass up.

Terry McLaurin: He only saw five targets last week, but that was enough for him to demolish the Eagles secondary, catching every one for 130 yards and a touchdown, highlighted by a 75-yard catch-and-run. He’s now totaled at least 69 yards and/or a touchdown in four of his last five games, so maybe things are coming together for him and Haskins? The lack of targets to go around is worrisome, but McLaurin has earned the right to be trusted. The Giants cut their best cornerback prior to last week’s game, which surely won’t help them slow down receivers. They’ve already allowed more fantasy points per target (2.06) than any other team in the NFL. Yes, that includes the Cardinals and Dolphins. Receivers have been able to snag 66.2 percent of passes that come their way at 14.5 yards a pop, while bringing in a touchdown every 13.5 targets. That’s with Janoris Jenkins on the roster. The duo of DeAndre Baker and Sam Beal have allowed 50-of-86 passing for 807 yards and eight touchdowns in their coverage, good enough for a QB Rating just short of 120. McLaurin should be in lineups as a high-end WR3 with top-10 upside, though we can’t put him there due to his inconsistent quarterback play.

Steven Sims: There will be some who come here and wonder if Sims is a start after he saw a team-high 11 targets against the Eagles last week. He also saw seven targets the prior week against the Packers in Week 14, and he’s turned those 18 targets into nine catches for 85 yards and a touchdown. Those aren’t massive numbers, but serviceable. The Giants have had to fall back on Corey Ballentine to cover the slot after cutting Janoris Jenkins, which is good news for Sims. While covering the slot, Ballentine has allowed 23-of-31 passing for 308 yards and two touchdowns. He only comes on the field in three wide receiver sets, which does limit his appeal and potentially his fantasy floor if the Redskins jump out to a lead. He’s one of those long shots that just might work out, though he’s far from a sure thing. He also had two drops on his 11 targets last week, including a crucial one on third-down during the fourth quarter. Consider him a low-end WR4 who has a good matchup, though it’s unclear if he’ll continue getting the targets he has the last two weeks.

TEs
Evan Engram: He’s been practicing on a limited basis, though he hasn’t played in a game since way back in Week 9. This would be a heck of a matchup to return to, as the Redskins have been the fifth-most giving team to the tight end position. There have been seven different tight ends who’ve tallied at least 49 yards against them, including Engram back in Week 4 when he hauled in 4-of-7 targets for 54 yards. They just allowed the Eagles duo of Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert to combine for 10 receptions, 116 yards, and a touchdown on 16 targets. The concern of re-injury definitely needs to be taken into consideration, but knowing how close Engram’s been for multiple weeks, it does seem like they’ve played is safe with him. If Engram suits up, he should be considered a low-end TE1 who does have a wide range of outcomes coming off a multi-week absence with Shepard, Tate, Slayton, and Barkley on the field, which is something that’s never happened. *Update* Engram was placed on injured reserve this week and is out the remainder of the season. 

Jeremy Sprinkle: He’s failed to catch more than two passes in a game all year, and that’s despite starting 10 games. He also hasn’t topped 36 yards in a game, so feel free to keep on looking for that streamer.