Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks

Total: 50.0
Line: SEA by 9.5

QBs
Kyler Murray: He took a backseat to the Drake show last week, but there were positive takeaways for Murray. For the first time in a few weeks, he used his mobility extremely well which puts the hamstring injury seemingly behind us. He also averaged 8.8 yards per attempt, his third-highest mark of the season. Now he heads into a matchup that he struggled in a bit earlier this year against the Seahawks. They’re far from an elite defense at this point in time, and they just found out they’ll be without safety Quandre Diggs for this game. They’ve also been missing Jadeveon Clowney off and on throughout the year, and Bobby Wagner is dealing with an ankle injury, so there’s certainly injuries to pay attention to as the week goes on. Speaking of rushing, the Seahawks have allowed more yards per carry (6.09) to quarterbacks than any other team in the league, and though Murray only totaled 27 yards on the ground the last time they played, he did score a rushing touchdown. Quarterbacks are also averaging 39.1 pass attempts per game against the Seahawks, which has allowed seven different quarterbacks to throw for 276 or more yards, but it’s important to note that Kingsbury has dialed back Murray’s pass attempts, as he’s thrown the ball 34 times or less in nine of the last 11 games they’ve played. With the Seahawks allowing a pedestrian 7.23 yards per attempt and paltry 3.29 percent touchdown-rate, it’s not ideal for Murray through the air. If he’s going to post QB1 numbers in this game, it’ll likely be with his legs. Lamar Jackson was the only quarterback to finish better than QB9 against them, so Murray should be considered just a low-end QB1 here.

Russell Wilson: Despite throwing the ball just 26 times last week, Wilson was able to rack-up 19.3 fantasy points and finish as the QB8 on the week. That’s always the risk you take when starting Wilson, as his efficiency doesn’t often require volume. You may not have known it by last week’s horrendous performance by the Browns offense, but the Cardinals have allowed an NFL-high 108.3 PPR points per game to the combination of quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends this year, which is nearly seven more points than the closest team (Lions). What happens when you combine what might be the league’s most efficient passer with the league’s most inefficient defense? The Cardinals have allowed a league-leading 71.6 percent completion-rate, which would rank 4th all-time for a single-season quarterback. So, essentially, every quarterback completes passes like Drew Brees against them. They’ve allowed 8.18 yards per attempt with a 6.48 percent touchdown-rate. Comparing those to Brees this year, he averages 7.89 yards per attempt with a 6.77 percent touchdown-rate. If you could get Brees’ averages every week, would you play him? Of course you would. It is a divisional game, which can be tricky, and it’s maybe part of the reason Wilson tallied just 14.3 fantasy points against them, though he was efficient completing 22-of-28 passes for 240 yards and one touchdown. You’re starting Wilson as a middling QB1 who may have less than stellar volume, but his efficiency should shine.

RBs
Kenyan Drake and David Johnson: I think it’s safe to say Drake has the workhorse job on lockdown after his four-touchdown outburst in Week 15. He was responsible for 23-of-26 touches available to Cardinals running backs and he didn’t disappoint. Now on to play a Seahawks team that’s allowed a rushing touchdown every 18.8 carries, which ranks as the second-most often in the league behind only the Panthers. Despite seeing the fourth-fewest carries (18.8 per game), they’ve allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns (14). Both of these teams average over 129 total plays per game, which is above the league average, so we should expect a lot of plays, though teams have called a run play on just 36.1 percent of plays against the Seahawks, which ranks as the third-lowest percentage in all of football. This means touches are hard to come by against them, as highlighted by the 24.4 touches per game they’ve faced, which ranks as the seventh-fewest. There have been just nine running backs who’ve totaled at least 15 touches against them. Each of them finished as a top-20 running back, so if you believe Drake hits that mark, he should be played as a mid-tier RB2. But we cannot ignore the risk of him falling below that mark, as he did the prior week against the Steelers, though he got close with 14 total touches. No matter which way you slice it, Drake should be looked at as a low-end RB2 who has upside for more considering how inefficient the Seahawks have been at stopping running backs, as the 0.97 PPR points per opportunity ranks as the third-highest mark in the league. You cannot start Johnson in fantasy leagues after a three-touch game in a matchup where touches may be hard to come by for the Cardinals backs.

Chris Carson: In the first game without Rashaad Penny, we watched Carson rack-up 26 opportunities against the Panthers, turning them into 137 yards and two touchdowns. He’s totaled at least 18 opportunities in all but two games this year, and because of that, he has the sixth-highest expected fantasy output. The Cardinals have allowed 164.7 total yards per game to opposing running backs, which ranks as the sixth-highest mark in the league. It certainly helps that their opponents have averaged a league-high 67.5 plays per game. When you add in the fact that the Seahawks run the ball on 46.9 percent of plays (4th-highest), you have yourself a dream workhorse scenario for Carson. There have been nine running backs who’ve totaled more than 18 touches against the Cardinals, and eight of them were able to finish as top-13 options that week. The only one who didn’t was Joe Mixon, which came way back in Week 5 when he tallied 109 total yards but didn’t score. Carson himself finished with 145 total yards on his 26 touches against them back in Week 4. There is nothing concerning about this matchup, making him an RB1 with an ultra-high floor.

WRs
Christian Kirk: With Kenyan Drake simply going bananas, the pass attempts were cranked way down and it led to Kirk seeing fewer than seven targets for the first time since back in Week 9. He didn’t have a great matchup on the perimeter anyway, but his high target share should come back to him in Week 16 against the Seahawks. They were forced to play without top cornerback Shaquill Griffin last week, who’s dealing with a hamstring injury. They’re expecting him to return, but that would be just a one-week absence with chance of re-injury. That’s who Kirk will match-up with most of the time, too. If he can’t go, career-backup Akeem King would be forced to step in. The Seahawks team as a whole have allowed eight different receivers to total 98 or more yards against them this season, and Kirk might be the only Cardinals receiver capable of hitting that mark at this stage. With wide receivers averaging 22.1 targets per game against the Seahawks, Kirk should be locked into seven-plus targets with a potentially less-than-100-percent Griffin. Consider him a stable WR3 this week. *Update* Kirk has been downgraded to a game-time decision with an ankle injury, taking away some of the appeal he had. It appears Griffin will not play, which is a good thing, but Kirk’s game-time call makes him a shaky WR3 who could pan out, though there’s now risk we didn’t think existed. 

Larry Fitzgerald: This may be the last time Fitzgerald’s name shows up in The Primer, which is bittersweet. I really don’t enjoy watching players decline later in their careers, as it almost tarnishes the image of the dominant player we all watched for so many years. I still remember all the great times with Fitzgerald, as he was a staple in the elite fantasy players when I started playing fantasy football myself. Thank you for all the wonderful years, Fitz. This matchup against Seattle back in Week 4 netted five catches on five targets for 47 yards. The Seahawks have been rather solid against slot receivers this year, allowing a lackluster 6.79 yards per target and just three touchdowns on 139 targets, though if they were missing Shaquill Griffin, it would shake things up a bit and force fourth-round rookie Ugo Amadi to cover the slot, and that would be a plus for Fitzgerald. No matter which way you slice it, Fitzgerald isn’t someone you’re aiming to play now that he’s failed to top 56 yards in seven of his last eight games and has one touchdown since Week 3. He does offer a stable 6-8-point floor in PPR formats, but that’s just WR5 territory. *Update* With Kirk being a game-time decision, Fitzgerald could walk into more targets this week. If Kirk is forced to sit this one out, Fitzgerald would be upgraded into WR4 territory. 

Tyler Lockett: As mentioned last week, Lockett is healthy, though recent matchups had impacted his production and that created the perception that he was playing hurt. After an eight-catch, 120-yard, one-touchdown game, nobody is saying he’s hurt anymore. The Cardinals are a wonderful matchup for him, too. He only saw four targets in the first meeting against them but caught all of them for 51 yards. On the year, the Cardinals have allowed 104-of-129 passing for 1,287 yards and 11 touchdowns in the slot this year, which is where Lockett plays most of his snaps. How bad is that? Deandre Hopkins has caught 99-of-141 targets for 1,142 yards and seven touchdowns this year. The Cardinals have moved rookie Byron Murphy into the slot, who’s allowed 19-of-26 passing for 180 yards and a touchdown when there. Lockett should be able to take advantage of this matchup, provided the targets are there. He always comes with some sort of risk considering how low volume has been in the Seahawks offense, but he’s locked into the high-end WR2 conversation this week.

D.K. Metcalf: We watched Metcalf take a backseat to the Lockett show last week, which was expected considering the matchups. Metcalf still made his fantasy owners satisfied with a touchdown, though it was his first game with fewer than five targets since back in Week 5. We don’t want to overreact to one game, but the matchup this week is going to be the toughest on the team, as he’ll get Patrick Peterson in coverage most of the time. Peterson hasn’t been the elite cornerback he was in previous years, though he’s coming off what was his best game of the season where he allowed just 5-of-11 passing for 38 yards against the Browns duo of Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry. He also intercepted a pass, which earned him defensive player of the week honors. Peterson hasn’t been beat for a catch more than 32 yards this year, so the big play doesn’t appear likely for Metcalf, but also not impossible. He only caught one pass for a career-low six yards in their first meeting, which was without Peterson. Metcalf still deserves WR3 consideration with how well he’s played, but he’s towards the lower end of that conversation this week.

TEs
Charles Clay: We’re now entering Week 16 and the three best performances out of Cardinals tight ends all year are 12.4, 11.8, and 7.6 PPR points. Not only was Clay battling for snaps with Maxx Williams, but they’ve also added Dan Arnold to the mix. Nope.

Jacob Hollister: He’s now failed to top 44 yards in each of his last four games, though three of the matchups weren’t very tight end friendly. This week, however, is the best matchup you can ask for. The Cardinals simply cannot stop the tight end position. Just stop trying to predict how or why; we now have a 14-game sample size that justifies starting just about any tight end against them. Through 14 games, they’ve allowed 11 different tight ends to finish with at least 11.3 PPR points and as a top-10 tight end. Nine of them have scored at least 17.4 PPR points. They are the worst in the league in completion percentage (75.7), yards per target (9.22), targets per touchdown (7.4), and PPR points per target (2.49). Hollister is in the middling TE1 conversation and someone I’d aim to play if possible.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles

Total: 46.0
Line: DAL by 2.5

QBs
Dak Prescott: Coming off three brutal matchups against the Bills, Bears, and Rams, Prescott managed to stay in the QB1 conversation in each of those games, totaling at least 17.5 fantasy points in each game. He’s fallen below that mark just twice all season, which have come against the Patriots (in the rain) and Saints. The last time they played the Eagles, he completed 21-of-27 passes for 239 yards and one touchdown, while rushing for 30 yards and another touchdown. These two teams know each other extremely well, and this game essentially decides who wins the NFC East. Over the last three weeks, we’ve watched this Eagles secondary allow Ryan Fitzpatrick, Dwayne Haskins, and Eli Manning combine for 61-of-97 passing for 829 yards (8.55 yards per attempt) with seven touchdowns and one interception. Each of them finished with at least 16.0 fantasy points, highlighting it wasn’t really a fluke. Their secondary simply isn’t playing well right now and now Ronald Darby is dealing with some “lower body issues,” according to Doug Pederson. The issue for teams against the Eagles have been lack of plays, as they’ve averaged just 59.5 plays per game, the fifth-fewest in the league. Knowing the Cowboys are likely to have issues running the ball against the Eagles, we should expect to see Prescott throw the ball quite a bit here. Knowing the Eagles have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per actual pass attempt, you should be willing to trust him as your QB1 this week. *Update* Prescott was limited in practice throughout the week and some doctors have expressed concern about his throwing shoulder injury, which adds a bit more risk than we hoped for this week. Because of that, he moves down slightly to low-end QB1 territory. If we knew he was 100 percent, he’d be ranked as a top-six play this week.  

Carson Wentz: Despite all the wide receiver issues Wentz and the Eagles have had over the last three weeks, he’s scored at least 19.9 fantasy points in each game, resulting in three top-10 finishes. Now on to play a Cowboys team he’s very familiar with. He was held to just 191 yards and one touchdown in the first meeting, which netted just 6.8 fantasy points, the worst total of the year for him. In two games against a Cowboys defense that was playing better last year, he completed 54-of-76 passes for 588 yards, five touchdowns, and one interception, and was a top-10 quarterback in both games. Since Week 9, here are the quarterbacks the Cowboys have played along with their finishes: Kirk Cousins (QB9), Jeff Driskel (QB5), Tom Brady (QB17), Josh Allen (QB8), Mitch Trubisky (QB3), and Jared Goff (QB13). They aren’t playing very good football right now and have not generated the pressure they did earlier in the year. They’ve only allowed one quarterback more than two passing touchdowns all year, though it was Mitch Trubisky two weeks ago, who plays in a similar offense to the one Wentz/Pederson run. The injuries to his receivers do limit his upside, but Wentz should be considered a low-end QB1 this week.

RBs
Ezekiel Elliott: It appears Elliott is hitting his stride at the right time, as he’s now totaled 355 yards on 76 carries (4.67 yards per carry) with four touchdowns over the last four games while chipping in another 16 receptions for 161 yards through the air. The matchup with the Eagles this week is going to be a tough one, though. They’ve allowed just two running backs all season to record more than 91 total yards. Elliott was one of them way back in Week 7 when he tallied 111 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries while hauling in six receptions for 36 yards. He and Rashaad Penny are the only two running backs who’ve totaled more than 66 rushing yards against them, as the 3.65 yards per carry takes a lot of volume to get there. Volume hasn’t guaranteed success against the Eagles, either. There have been four running backs who’ve totaled 20-plus touches against them, and Elliott was the only one to finish better than RB18. It does help that they just lost another linebacker for the year, as Kamu Grugier-Hill was placed on injured reserve this week. It’s also worth noting that even though the Eagles have been a good run defense for a while now, Elliott has had success against them every time they play. You’re playing him as an RB1, and you’ll feel better about it after seeing the chart below with his history against the Eagles.

Miles Sanders and Boston Scott: It was finally the breakout week we’ve been waiting for with Sanders, as he racked-up 172 yards and two touchdowns against the Redskins. He’s now tallied at least 20 opportunities in each of the last three games, though there are reports out there that Jordan Howard may return for this game (he’s listed as questionable, still not ruled out on Friday). If that happens, it would cloud everything, so stay tuned for updates. For now, we’ll proceed as if he’s out. The matchup against the Cowboys isn’t great for a timeshare, as there’ve been just two teams (Packers, Vikings) of running backs who’ve totaled more than 104 rushing yards against them over the last 13 games. When you start divvying up that yardage to multiple running backs, it doesn’t look pretty. There have been just six running backs who’ve finished better than the RB20 against the Cowboys this year, and each of them totaled at least 14 touches. That threshold doesn’t automatically amount to success, though, as there’ve been six running backs with 14-plus touches who didn’t finish better than RB24 against them, too. The great news for Sanders is that he’s seen 21 targets over the last four games, which is likely due to the limited targets the Eagles have at wide receiver. If Howard misses another game, Sanders should be in lineups as a low-end RB2 in a below-average matchup, but his work in the passing game gives him a solid floor. Scott has seen 13 targets over the last two weeks on top of his 16 carries, so he’s clearly in the fantasy conversation in Week 16. Some may scoff at his role, but 14.5 touches per game is massive, especially when 13 of them are receptions. The Cowboys have allowed 81 receptions on the year, which is the eighth-most in the league, so the opportunity should be there, though his floor does dip down if Agholor returns. He should be considered a low-end RB3 in PPR formats if Howard and Agholor remain out. If either of them returns, he moves back into the RB4 conversation.

WRs
Amari Cooper: The guy next to me: “Amari is just too inconsistent. See! Just 19 yards against the Rams.” Me: “He had two targets. What do you want him to do?” He didn’t have a single target after the five-minute mark in the first quarter. The Cowboys didn’t need to throw the ball very much last week, as the Rams failed to put up a fight. These things happen sometimes… it has nothing to do with him as a player or any injury. Against the Eagles, there will be targets. He caught 5-of-5 targets for 106 yards the first time they played the Eagles. There have been 13 wide receivers who’ve finished top-20 against them this season, including Terry McLaurin‘s 24.0-point explosion last week. After that game, we’re hearing that Ronald Darby has some lower body issues, which puts his availability in question. Not that it matters much, as he’s been bad in coverage anyway. The combination of Darby and Jalen Mills has allowed 63-of-104 passing for 1,024 yards and 10 touchdowns this year. That’s nearly a full 10 yards per target, which is incredibly high. Cooper should be in lineups as a high-end WR2 with top-three upside in this game.

Michael Gallup: We need to erase the Cowboys Week 15 game from our memories, as it was an outlier on the season. It was just the second time all year where Gallup didn’t see at least six targets. Oddly enough, the other time was against the Eagles back in Week 7 when he saw just four targets and turned them into three catches for 34 yards. The biggest concern here is lack of volume, as Ezekiel Elliott has had incredible success against the Eagles over his career, including earlier this year. The Eagles opponents have averaged 19.6 targets per game to wide receivers, which ranks 15th in the league, but the efficiency has been great, as they’ve allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per target. Even better news is that 11 of the 13 top-24 performances they’ve allowed this year have gone to perimeter receivers. Gallup likely plays second fiddle to Cooper, but there should be room for two top-36 receivers in this game. Gallup should be considered a decent WR3 option.

Nelson Agholor: When we get more information on Agholor, I’ll come back and update this portion, though it’d be wise to look elsewhere for the time being. *Update* He did not practice all week and is looking to be doubtful. 

Greg Ward: He’s become the go-to receiver for Wentz over the last two weeks, racking up 18 targets, 11 receptions, 95 yards, and a touchdown. Those aren’t great numbers considering the volume he’s received, but they are usable in fantasy. Unfortunately, the matchup against the Cowboys is horrendous for perimeter receivers. There have been 10 wide receivers who’ve posted top-30 numbers against the Cowboys all season, which is extremely low to begin with, and five of them were slot-heavy receivers. The only perimeter receivers to finish top-30 were Robby Anderson, Allen Robinson, Marvin Jones, Michael Thomas, and Terry McLaurin. We aren’t putting Ward anywhere near that tier, right? We just watched them limit Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks to eight catches for 63 yards on 17 targets last week. Now, the good news is that Ward has run roughly half of his routes from the slot over the last two weeks, but Agholor’s status would severely impact that. If Agholor remains out, Ward can be considered as a high-end WR4, though I wouldn’t choose him if forced into a tiebreaker.

TEs
Jason Witten: The streak of four-plus target lives on and is now at 14 games. Not many realize it, but Witten ranks seventh in targets among tight ends since Week 7, as he’s averaged a solid 6.2 targets per game in that time. He’s also totaled at least three catches and 33 yards in nine of his last 12 games, which provides a stable floor for those who are desperate. The Eagles are not a team to attack with tight ends, however, as they’ve been dominant against the position ever since Jim Schwartz arrived. They have allowed the fifth-fewest points to the position this year and did hold Witten to 4/33/0 back in Week 7, though that’s right around what you’d expect out of him. While I’ve been a big proponent of streaming Witten as a floor option this year, he’s nothing more than a middling TE2 here.

Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert: With all the injuries to the Eagles pass-catchers, Ertz has stepped up and seen a massive 65 targets over the last six weeks that have amounted to 47 receptions, 464 yards, and five touchdowns. Those six weeks alone would rank 10th-most points among tight ends on the season. The Cowboys have been heavily tested (10-plus targets) against tight ends twice this year, and in those games, they allowed 11/116/1 to Evan Engram, and then 12/111/0 to Tyler Higbee which was just last week. The 74.3 percent completion-rate the Cowboys have allowed to tight ends ranks behind only the Cardinals, so volume has done tight ends well against them, though they have been around the league average on a production-per-target basis. Ertz didn’t do much of anything against them back in Week 7 when he was struggling, but don’t forget about the 14/145/2 he hung on the Cowboys last year. He’s an elite TE1 and one that can be used in cash lineups. Goedert is still being used quite a bit, as evidenced by his six-plus targets in each of the last five games. He’s also averaged 54.0 yards per game over the last three weeks, though the lack of touchdown clouds judgement. He should be considered a solid low-end TE1 as well.

Kansas City Chiefs at Chicago Bears

Total: 44.5
Line: KC by 6.0

QBs
Patrick Mahomes: Who knew it would take a blizzard to get Mahomes back into 300-yard territory and multiple touchdowns? It was his first time hitting both marks since Week 10. Since Week 3, Mahomes actually ranks 14th among quarterbacks in points per game, so when regression hit, it hit hard. The matchup with the Bears hasn’t been one to target with quarterbacks, either. They’ve still yet to allow a quarterback finish better than QB12 this season, though they’ve been walking a fine-line as of late. Four of the last six quarterbacks they’ve played have finished QB12-QB15, which likely has a lot to do with the injuries piling up. They lost linebacker Roquan Smith for the year, linebacker Danny Trevathan has been out for multiple weeks, and it would be dumb for them to put defensive tackle Akiem Hicks out there now that they’re out of playoff contention, as he was clearly in pain all game in their Week 15 loss. So, when you see they’ve allowed just 6.61 yards per attempt on the season, you must understand that this is a different team. The easiest way to tell? They’ve averaged just a 31.0 pressure-rate on the season, which ranks as the third-worst in football behind only the Dolphins and Falcons. When kept clean in the pocket, Mahomes has a 111.4 QB Rating. While he may not have the No. 1 quarterback ceiling this week, my bet would be that he finishes inside the top-10. Play him as you normally would.

Mitch Trubisky: Here’s the list of quarterbacks who’ve scored more fantasy points per game than Trubisky since Week 9: Lamar Jackson, Jameis Winston, Ryan Tannehill, Drew Brees, and Josh Allen. That’s it. He’s back to the quarterback he was last year where he’s using his legs a lot more, and even criticized Matt Nagy’s play-calling after the game last week, saying they should be rolling the pocket more often. The Chiefs have been a much better defense than many have given them credit for, as they’ve allowed just four quarterbacks average more than 7.40 yards per attempt all season. The 6.80 yards per attempt they’ve allowed on the year ranks seventh-best, right in front of the Ravens. They’ve generated pressure and it’s led to 39 sacks (11th in the NFL) and 14 interceptions (6th in NFL). The good news for Trubisky is that they’ve allowed a healthy 5.22 yards per carry to quarterbacks, and plenty of quarterbacks have taken advantage, as seven of them have totaled 18-plus rushing yards, and three of them have rushed for at least one touchdown (Deshaun Watson had two). Trubisky has averaged 41.8 pass attempts in the six games the Bears have lost with him under center, which should provide a solid floor, though you don’t want to underestimate the Chiefs defense. Trubisky fits into the middling QB2 territory this week and knowing his legs are being utilized, he should deliver a higher floor than most in that range.

RBs
Damien Williams and LeSean McCoy: Who ever thought we’d be saying the Chiefs running backs under Andy Reid are irrelevant in fantasy football? That’s where we are in 2019, as the backs have combined for just 1,049 yards on 265 carries (3.96 yards per carry) with 11 rushing touchdowns. By comparison, Ezekiel Elliott by himself has 1,199 yards and 11 rushing touchdowns. We may see Williams return to the lineup this week, but will you want to trust him in his first game back off a four-week absence? The Bears are likely going to be without three of their best players on the front seven, as Akiem Hicks tried to return last week, but was playing through pain, while linebackers Roquan Smith (IR) and Danny Trevathan were out. Williams remains the only one in the Chiefs backfield who’s totaled more than 14 touches in a game this year, which is important considering the Bears have allowed a miniscule 3.68 yards per carry and 5.17 yards per target to running backs. They have allowed 14 rushing touchdowns on the year (tied for 2nd-most), but there’s no clear-cut leader on this team in goal-line situations. There have been just nine running backs who’ve totaled more than 12.6 PPR points against the Bears, with seven of them totaling at least 16 touches, while the other two were Aaron Jones (13 touches, two being touchdowns) and Chris Thompson (11 touches, four catches for 79 yards). Williams is the only one I’d consider trusting as an RB3, though he does come with risk (obviously). McCoy hasn’t totaled more than 43 total yards with Williams out of the lineup, though his role doesn’t seem to change very much with/without Williams, as he’s left in the 6-12 touch range most games. He’s just a very mediocre RB4 with minimal upside.

David Montgomery and Tarik Cohen: At some point, volume is supposed to amount to production, right? Montgomery has now received at least 15 opportunities in eight straight games but has just two games with better than RB19 in them. Over his last six games, he hasn’t cracked the top-18 running backs on the week despite the increased potency of the offense. The Chiefs are the team he should be able to get back into that conversation against, as they’ve allowed the third-most fantasy points to the running back position this year. It’s not just volume, as the 0.93 PPR points per opportunity ranks as the fifth-highest number in the league. They have played much better over the last two weeks, however, as the Patriots and Broncos backfields combined for just 115 yards and one touchdown on 32 carries. In fact, it’s now been three straight weeks they haven’t allowed a top-20 running back. The good news for Montgomery is that no running back who’s totaled more than 12 touches (there’s been 12 of them) have finished worse than RB32, while 11-of-12 have finished RB26 or better. This matchup has said that volume matters, so plug Montgomery in as a low-end RB2/high-end RB3 who should have a top-32 floor. Cohen is getting plenty of opportunity with so many injuries to the Bears pass-catchers, and its amounted to 58 touches over the last five games, or 11.6 per game. That’s plenty of work against a Chiefs team that’s allowed high efficiency. The 182.5 total yards per game they’ve allowed to running backs is the most in the NFL. The 191.5 PPR points they’ve allowed through the air to backs ranks as the third-most in the league, so Cohen can safely be played as a low-end RB3 with upside.

WRs
Tyreek Hill: Just like Mahomes, who knew it would require a blizzard for Hill to get out of his slump? He only totaled 67 yards, though two of his five receptions were for touchdowns. He’ll bring that momentum into a matchup with the Bears cornerbacks who struggle with speed. Prince Amukamara has been beat multiple times this year where he’s multiple yards behind the receiver, while Kyle Fuller is a physical cornerback who does better with big wide receivers but struggles against pure route-runners. Sure, the Bears have allowed the eighth-fewest points to fantasy receivers this year, but it doesn’t erase the fact that five different receivers have eclipsed 100 yards against them, while six of them have eclipsed 20 PPR points. Hill should be started as a WR1 with little concern.

Sammy Watkins: After finishing as the No. 1 wide receiver in Week 1, Watkins has failed to finish as a top-24 receiver in every game since. There’s been just two games he’s finished better than the WR43, which is pretty horrendous for a guy who has the 38th most targets in football, including more than his teammate Tyreek Hill. His role has been declining as of late though, as he’s seen four or less targets in three of the last four games. Watkins run nearly 60 percent of his routes from the slot, which is where Buster Skrine has monitored throughout the season and done a good job, allowing just 49-of-74 passing for 487 yards and three touchdowns. One of the touchdowns he allowed came last week when he allowed Davante Adams to simply run a go-route right past him. As a whole, the 6.58 yards per target Skrine has allowed isn’t ideal for someone who’s struggled with efficiency. Watkins has the ability to crank out a top-12 performance at any time, but that’s not what the odds say. He’s nothing more than a WR4 at this point.

Allen Robinson: With the way the year started for Trubisky, who thought Robinson would finish as a top-10 wide receiver? Heading into Week 16, he’s sandwiched in-between D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen as the WR9 on the year. The improved play from Trubisky has only helped, as Robinson now has four straight games with 19.5 or more PPR points. He’s totaled 44 targets in that time, something that’s highly unlikely to change against the Chiefs. It’s a good thing, too, because he’s going to need a lot of targets to succeed against this defense. Did you know they’ve allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to the wide receiver position, behind only the Patriots? The 132 receptions they’ve allowed to them is the absolute lowest in the league, which stems from the miniscule 56.4 percent catch-rate they’ve allowed. The perimeter duo of Bashaud Breeland and Charvarius Ward may not have looked great to start the year, but they’ve combined to allow just 62-of-128 passing for 1,019 yards and four touchdowns in their coverage. Robinson does run 45 percent of his routes from the slot, so he’ll get matched-up with Kendall Fuller a bit, too. You’re starting him as a high-end WR2 this week, but understand that the matchup has been a tough one.

Anthony Miller: Remember back in the preseason when I had Miller as one of my favorite sleepers? What took Matt Nagy so long to start calling his number? That’s a question Bears fans have been asking all year. Over the last five weeks, he’s seen 52 targets and turned them into 33 receptions, 431 yards, and two touchdowns. The list of wide receivers who have more points during that stretch? Michael Thomas, Deandre Hopkins, D.J. Moore, Devante Parker, Allen Robinson, Chris Godwin, and A.J. Brown. That’s it. The Chiefs have been the second-worst matchup in football for wide receivers, though in the slot is where some have had success. Kendall Fuller is the one Miller may see most of the time, a nickel cornerback who’s allowed 16-of-23 passing for 206 yards and two touchdowns in his coverage this year. The Chiefs did change things up the last two weeks and had Tyrann Mathieu act as the slot cornerback throughout the last two weeks. He hasn’t been good in coverage over the course of his career, so it’s interesting to say the least. It shouldn’t surprise you if Miller is the Bears leading receiver this week, and though I wouldn’t bank on that, Miller is still someone you should play as a WR3.

TEs
Travis Kelce: Week 15 was the first time since Week 2 Kelce recorded over 100 yards, which sounds made up, right? He’s been the model citizen for fantasy owners, racking-up seven-plus receptions in five of the last six games with three of those games netting at least 90 yards. The Bears aren’t a great matchup for tight ends, as they’ve allowed just two tight ends record more than 50 yards against them since the start of the 2018 season. Those tight ends were George Kittle and Zach Ertz, who both went over 100 yards. The crazy part is that they’ve allowed 84 receptions to tight ends, which is tied as the third-highest mark in the league, but they’ve obviously kept those plays in front of them, allowing just 9.25 yards per reception, the second-lowest mark in the league. Still, it’s added up to the 11th-most fantasy points to the position, so there’s not too much to worry about with Kelce here. Start him as you normally would.

Jesper Horsted: The Bears aren’t targeting their tight ends very much right now, as they’ve combined for just 12 targets over the last three weeks. Horsted has accounted for eight of them and has run the most routes, so he’s the top option on the team. The Chiefs have seen the most targets (134) and allowed the most receptions (90) to tight ends, but the 6.63 yards per target they’ve allowed actually ranks as the third-lowest mark in football. The 1.51 PPR points per target ranks as the second-lowest mark in football, so without targets, you have nothing here. Horsted is nothing more than a hail mary tournament option.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

Total: 45.5
Line: MIN by 4.5

QBs
Aaron Rodgers: It’s been a pretty miserable season for Rodgers’ fantasy owners, as he’s finished outside the top-20 quarterbacks more than he’s finished inside the top-10. Here are his fantasy finishes in order: 23-17-25-2-23-12-1-3-25-24-21-2-22-21. So, he’s essentially finished as a top-three option or outside the top-20. There’s been just two games in-between. Now on to play against the Vikings that have allowed just three quarterbacks to finish top-12 against them all season, and each quarterback required 40-plus pass attempts. There have been just two quarterbacks who’ve averaged more than 7.86 yards per attempt against them all season, too. This is important because Rodgers doesn’t throw the ball a lot. He’s topped 35 pass attempts just twice all season, and those games were way back in Weeks 4 and 6. The Vikings have allowed 23 passing touchdowns on the season with 15 interceptions, which isn’t the greatest ratio, though we know by now that Rodgers doesn’t take chances in tight coverage very often. When Rodgers played against them at home back in Week 2, he totaled 209 yards and two touchdowns on 34 attempts, which is as good as you can hope for considering the overall numbers they’ve allowed/he’s posted. The reason we don’t want to completely write-off Rodgers is due to the fact that the Vikings have been one of the best in the league at defending the run, so if they shut down the Packers run-game, Rodgers would be their means to a win. Still, Rodgers has thrown just four touchdowns in the last four games combined against this Mike Zimmer defense. He’s just a high-end QB2 here.

Kirk Cousins: He’s played well since his bye week, but his fantasy totals wouldn’t suggest that. He’s thrown just four touchdowns in the last three games but has averaged a healthy 7.80 yards per attempt during that time. He got Thielen back in the lineup last week, though we always knew that the Chargers matchup would be brutal. The Packers matchup isn’t nearly as bad, though it hasn’t been great, either. There has been just one quarterback to finish better than QB10 against them, and that was Dak Prescott who threw the ball 44 times, something that doesn’t happen with Cousins. Still, the loss of Dalvin Cook should net more pass attempts. The best way to describe the Packers pass defense is “average.” They were generating a crazy pass-rush earlier in the season but that’s died down a bit over their last 10 games. They actually generated pressure on Cousins 65.7 percent of the time in their Week 2 matchup, which was a season-high (not just for Cousins, but the highest mark in the NFL this season). Knowing that mark has been cut in half, Cousins should look much better than the quarterback who completed just 14-of-32 passes for 230 yards and one touchdown in their first meeting. This figures to be a closely fought game between the two and if it’s tough seeing the Packers put up a lot of points, it’s obviously tough to predict a big game for Cousins, though the loss of Cook does give him a slight bump in projected pass attempts. He should be considered a high-end QB2.

RBs
Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams: This timeshare will be the death of me. Just when we think we have their roles pinned down, Jones goes out there and sees zero targets in Week 15. That’s a big problem considering Jones has topped 13 carries just once since Week 5. It’s not like Jones has always been super-efficient with his carries, either. He’s finished with less than 4.0 yards per carry in four of the last six games. The 0.75 PPR points per opportunity the Vikings have allowed ranks as the sixth-lowest mark in the league. It’s been hit-or-miss with a lot of running backs against the Vikings this year, as there’ve been five running backs who’ve finished with 17.9 or more PPR points and as a top-13 running back, but it’s a steep drop-off after that, as every other running back has finished with 13.1 or less points. Jones was one of the top performers against them back in Week 2 when he racked-up 116 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries, though it appeared as if the Vikings defense just didn’t show up for the first half of that game. Knowing that Jones’ workload has been scaled back quite a bit since that game, it’s a lot tougher to play him as an RB1 with a ton of confidence. I’d go into this game expecting RB2-type numbers and hoping the offense starts tilting his way again, particularly in the passing game. Williams has been somewhat of an afterthought while totaling just 16 touches over the last two games combined. While it’s possible LaFleur shifts things around again and gives him 13-15 touches, you shouldn’t be banking on that. He’s nothing more than an RB4.

Dalvin Cook and Mike Boone: After hearing Adam Schefter report that he’d be “surprised” if Cook played again in the regular season, I’m suggesting you don’t rely on him this week. With the game being on Monday night, we really hope to have some clarity on his situation by the time the games start on Sunday (ideally before the ones start on Saturday). With Alexander Mattison being ruled out last Friday, it suggests that he’s not close, either. That would mean Boone would walk into the lead role with Ameer Abdullah and C.J. Ham as the backup options. The Packers were a defense that running backs were crushing earlier this year, though they seemed to have leveled-out as the year has gone on. If you can stick to the run, it’s a great thing, as they’ve allowed 4.76 yards per carry on the year and a touchdown every 23.0 carries. Because of that, they’ve allowed 15 different running backs score 12.5 or more PPR points, which is the second-most in football behind only the Bengals. Touches mean everything against them, as there have been 16 running backs who’ve totaled at least 13 touches against them, and 14 of them finished as top-26 running backs. The only two who didn’t were David Montgomery and LeSean McCoy, two players that seemingly never get in that territory. Knowing the Vikings average 33.8 running back touches per game and that the Packers allow 28.7 running back touches per game, it’s safe to say Boone would get into the 13-plus-touch territory. If we get word that Cook and Mattison are out, Boone should be considered a mid-to-low-end RB2 with upside for more, though he hasn’t been involved in the passing game, which is enough concern to keep him out of the top-15 starts this week. *Update* Cook has not practiced all week and is almost certainly out for this game. Mattison has also not practiced all week, so this looks like a Boone game. Make sure you check their statuses prior to the games starting on Sunday, as we may have more information. For now, he should be considered a low-end RB2. 

WRs
Davante Adams: There aren’t many things more obvious than the fact that Rodgers needs to go to Adams for production, yet teams struggle to contain him in coverage. If you ever wanted to watch a receiver make a cornerback look silly, just go back and watch what Adams did to Xavier Rhodes back in Week 2. He didn’t score in that game but tallied 7/106/0 on just nine targets. That’s been a theme for Rhodes all season, as he’s allowed 54-of-64 passing for 656 yards and four touchdowns in his coverage. He’s played just 43 snaps over the last two weeks as he deals with a calf injury, so it’s possible Adams sees some Mike Hughes/Trae Waynes in coverage as well, two cornerbacks that aren’t used to taking care of the opponent’s No. 1 receiver. Knowing the Vikings have allowed 22-plus PPR points to five different wide receivers this year, Adams is a surefire WR1 this week who comes with very little concern.

Allen Lazard: After watching Marquez Valdes-Scantling drop (he actually completely whiffed, so it may not technically be a drop) what should have been a long touchdown, he didn’t see a single target for the remainder of the game. Meanwhile, Lazard played just nine fewer snaps than Davante Adams. Unfortunately, it didn’t lead to any more targets, as he’s now seen just 11 targets over the last four weeks combined. Because of that, it’s impossible to count on him outside of tournaments. He makes sense in those with how many snaps he’s playing against a defense that’s allowed a league-high 23 different wide receivers to score 11.7 or more PPR points, which is typically enough to get into WR3 territory. Again, there’s too much risk in redraft championships to play him as anything more than a WR5.

Stefon Diggs: He’s totaled 76-plus yards in three of the last four games despite a few tough matchups in there. Meanwhile, the Packers matchup is one to target in fantasy right now. The cornerback duo of Jaire Alexander and Kevin King have been struggling and are coming off a game where they allowed both Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller 115-plus yards. The 9.19 yards per target ranks as the fifth-highest mark in football while the 15.92 yards per reception is the most in the league. Diggs’ weighted opportunity rating is the ninth-best in football, and his 14.9-yard average depth of target is much higher than Thielen’s 11.8-yard depth. It also doesn’t hurt that he lines up the most on Kevin King‘s side of the field, the cornerback that’s allowed a massive 17.2 yards per reception in his coverage and continually gets beat over the top. Diggs’ line of one catch for 49 yards and a touchdown in their first meeting may seem small, but if you go back and watch that game, it could’ve easily been a 150-yard, two-touchdown game if Cousins was decent. Diggs should be in lineups as a low-end WR1/high-end WR2.

Adam Thielen: Many will be worried about starting Thielen after he finished last week with just three catches for 27 yards, though you shouldn’t be one of them. He came out of that game setback-free and will have an additional day to prepare for this game. Knowing the Vikings are likely to be without Dalvin Cook, it should create additional opportunities in the passing game. Receivers have averaged just 18.1 targets per game against the Packers this year, which is not a whole lot on a typical team, but knowing the Vikings offense is so concentrated, both Thielen and Diggs could get eight targets and it would still leave an additional three targets. Thielen’s matchup is a bit tougher than Diggs’ matchup, provided the Packers don’t attempt to shadow either of them, as Jaire Alexander is the cornerback Thielen would see most often. Alexander has allowed just a 54.7 percent catch-rate, but the catches he’s allowed have gone for 15.0 yards a pop. While I believe Diggs is the superior play, Thielen should be considered a low-end WR2 this week.

TEs
Jimmy Graham: He’s been an afterthought in the offense over the last five games, as he’s totaled just eight receptions in them. There are multiple tight ends who had at least eight catches last week alone. When you combine that with the fact that the Vikings have allowed a league-low 1.30 PPR points per target, and you have yourself a situation to avoid. Even when Graham was a bigger part of the offense, he was held catchless in that game. He’s not a recommended option, even in 2TE formats.

Kyle Rudolph: What do you know? Thielen returns to the offense and Rudolph gets just three targets. Back over the first six weeks when Thielen was playing, Rudolph totaled just 11 targets and 72 yards over those six games. It was like a light switch when Thielen left, as Rudolph totaled 32 targets over the next seven games. The Packers have been struggling to slow down tight ends, as they’ve allowed 8.42 yards per target to the position with a 71.7 percent catch-rate and touchdown every 16.5 targets. All of that amounts to the ninth-most points to the position. They’ve now allowed eight different tight ends to finish as top-12 options but trusting Rudolph with Thielen back in the lineup may be an adventure. With Cook likely sidelined, it’s likely to create more opportunities for everyone in the passing game, so we can’t just forget about Rudolph, but he’s more of a middling TE2 with the risk of Thielen back in the lineup.

Houston Texans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Total: 53.0
Line: HOU by 1.5

QBs
Deshaun Watson: He didn’t have the massive game that most thought he would last week, as the Titans were able to keep him in check in their divisional showdown despite being down two of their top three cornerbacks. The Bucs are a secondary where health hasn’t really mattered, as they’ve allowed top-tier fantasy production to nearly every quarterback they’ve played. They’ve played much better since Week 9, as there’s been no quarterback to averaged more than 7.36 yards per attempt in those six games, though three of them did throw for at least two touchdowns. The good news for Watson is that the attempts should be there, as they’ve allowed minimal production on the ground this year. The 3.12 yards per carry they’ve allowed to running backs is the best mark in the NFL, and it’s led to quarterbacks averaging a league-high 41.4 pass attempts per game against them. The real issue here could be lack of competition, as the Bucs are now likely to be without both of their top receivers for this game. Watson himself has topped 30 pass attempts just once in the last six games, so it’s clear the Texans aren’t looking to put him in harm’s way if they don’t have to. Still, the Bucs are the only team in the NFL who allows more fantasy points to the quarterback position than the running back position. Watson should still be considered a must-start QB1 in redraft formats, but he may not be the must-start in DFS cash games due to potential gamescript concerns.

Jameis Winston: There’s always going to be some sort of risk when playing Winston, you know that. You also know the potential you’re getting, as he’s now totaled 24-plus fantasy points in five different games, including two 32-plus point games. The latest one came without Mike Evans on the field, though the fantasy gods seemingly want to take it a step further, as Winston will now be without Chris Godwin as well. Losing the two receivers who’ve accounted for 42.8 percent of his targets, 54.5 percent of his yardage, and 56.7 percent of his touchdowns just feels soul-crushing to his fantasy appeal. With that being said, the Texans have now allowed 11-of-14 quarterbacks finish with 18.1 or more fantasy points against them. There have been seven quarterbacks who’ve thrown for 300-plus yards, and 10 quarterbacks who’ve thrown multiple touchdowns. The good news is that there’ll likely be plenty of pass attempts for him to provide value, as we’ve watched six different quarterbacks total at least 39 pass attempts against the Texans. Winston himself has averaged 39.6 attempts per game, the most in the NFL. Knowing the floor the Texans defense has provided to quarterbacks, Winston remains on the low-end QB1/high-end QB2 radar this week, though he comes with even more risk than normal.

RBs
Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson: There’s still yet to be a game where Johnson has totaled more than 14 touches this season, and there’s been just three games where he’s totaled more than 10 touches. In short, he doesn’t get volume, no matter what. Against the Bucs, that’s a real problem. They’ve allowed just 0.69 PPR points per opportunity, which ranks as the third-lowest number in the league. They’ve allowed a league-low 3.12 yards per carry on the ground, while allowing a league-low 4.45 yards per target. Yes, they’ve been the best in the league against running backs on both the ground and through the air. They’ve allowed eight total touchdowns to them on the year, which isn’t a lot, but it’s worth noting that seven of the touchdowns have been rushing, which is clearly Hyde’s territory, as he’s seen 9-of-10 carries for the Texans have had inside the 10-yard-line. That’s not including Watson’s seven carries in that territory, so Johnson’s the third-best option inside the 10. The gamescript in this one looks to favor Hyde, though the Bucs have allowed just one running back to top 75 rushing yards all year. He should still net 18-plus carries, which leaves him in the middling RB3 conversation, though he’s touchdown dependent. Johnson is nothing more than a low-upside RB4.

Ronald Jones and Peyton Barber: I’ve been saying for a few weeks now that it makes little sense to trust anyone from this backfield. The upside (or lack thereof) doesn’t make up for the risk you’re taking on by playing either of them. Even in a matchup against the Lions where they won 38-17, neither of them topped 6.0 PPR points. The game this week isn’t likely to allow for many carries between them, as they’re big underdogs, and running backs have averaged just 20.8 carries per game against the Texans. You can run the ball on the Texans, as evidenced by the 4.37 yards per carry they’ve allowed, but we’ve watched the Bucs run passing plays on a league-high 66.5 percent of their plays due to them continually playing from behind. With the firepower the Texans have on offense, it’s tough to say that changes for the Bucs in this game. There is no team who has allowed more fantasy points through the air to running backs than the Texans, as running backs have averaged a ridiculous 16.1 PPR points per game through the air alone. The issue? There isn’t a clear beneficiary on the Bucs. Since the start of Week 11, the pass routes run have gone Jones 61, Dare Ogunbowale 57, and Barber 37. In situations the Bucs are down three-plus points, Jones has totaled 55 rush attempts while Barber has 44 of them. Knowing that Jones also runs more pass routes, he’s the one who should be the highest scorer in this backfield, though he’s still nothing more than a high-end RB4. Barber is not someone you should be playing.

WRs
Deandre Hopkins: As usual, Hopkins’ targets were dialed back with Fuller back in the lineup, though he was able to haul in 6-of-8 targets for 116 yards against the Titans injury-plagued secondary. The Bucs will have Jamel Dean out there covering Hopkins most of the time, a third-round pick from this year’s draft who’s allowed 17-of-38 passing for 228 yards and three touchdowns in his coverage. All three of the touchdowns he allowed in his coverage came in the first real game action of his career back in Week 9 against the Seahawks. He’s been really solid after that game, allowing just 3.04 yards per target in his coverage. Still, you’d have to go back to Week 8 to find the last time the Bucs didn’t allow at least one wide receiver 17-plus PPR points. You’re playing Hopkins as a WR1; that’s not really much of a question. He’s not a must-play in cash lineups right now, though, especially when you consider his lower target share with Fuller in the lineup.

Will Fuller: He was thrown right back into his solid target-share off injury last week, as he saw seven targets against the Titans. He’s now seen at least six targets in 7-of-9 full games he’s played this year. Knowing his targets take place down the field, they’re worth much more than a possession-style receiver. The Bucs are also a team that’s allowed 21 different wide receivers to record 70-plus yards against them, including 10 who hit the century mark. Fuller’s primary matchup will be with Carlton Davis, a bigger cornerback who’s better with physicality than speed, as his 4.53-second 40-yard-dash suggests. The Bucs have allowed 14 pass plays of 40-plus yards, which ranks as the second-most in the NFL, so you shouldn’t be sleeping on Fuller this week. Consider him a middling WR3 whose fantasy floor might be lower than some, but his ceiling, particularly in this matchup, can be week-winning.

Kenny Stills: With Fuller back in the lineup, it kicked Stills back into the slot and sent Keke Coutee to the inactive list. Naturally, when no one is playing him, Stills catches two touchdowns against the Titans. He saw just three targets, so that’s nothing worth getting excited about. The thing that is worth getting excited about is the matchup in the slot against the Bucs. They’ve gone through three different slot cornerbacks this year, with Sean Murphy-Bunting the latest enabling big performances. He’s allowed 22/247/2 on 31 slot targets in his coverage, including five catches and 80 yards on six targets last week. Stills has a great matchup on his hands, but the lack of projected pass attempts is the biggest detractor, as is the fact that he’s the No. 3 target in the offense. Considering he’s seen four or less targets in five of his last six games, Stills is just a boom-or-bust WR5.

Breshad Perriman: Welcome to the No. 1 role in the offense, Mr. Perriman. With both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin on the shelf, Perriman should walk into a much higher target share against the Texans this week. He’s seen six targets in each of the last three weeks and they’ve led to 13 receptions, 270 yards, and four touchdowns. His 34.6-point outburst in Week 15 was the 24th best wide receiver performance of the year. The Texans had been doing well against receivers in recent weeks, but don’t tell A.J. Brown that, as he tore up their secondary for 8/114/1 last week. As a whole, the Texans secondary has allowed 1.75 PPR points per target to wide receivers, which is right around the league average. With the alignment remaining similar, Perriman will see a lot of veteran Johnathan Joseph in coverage, who’s 35 years old and not quite as fast as he used to be. But understand that just because Perriman is locked into targets, that hasn’t automatically amounted to fantasy success, as there’ve been six different receivers who’ve seen at least seven targets yet finished with less than 10.0 PPR points. You have to consider Perriman a sturdy WR3 with his recent surge in role/targets, though he’s not necessarily a lock in DFS lineups.

Justin Watson: We thought his role would grow with Mike Evans out of the lineup, though he played just 42-of-75 snaps in Week 15, with a majority coming after Chris Godwin was injured. With both Evans and Godwin out of the lineup, he’ll be a full-time player against the Texans. Most fantasy players would be shocked to hear that the Texans secondary has allowed just 14 wide receivers finish inside the top-30 all season, and they haven’t allowed multiple receivers to finish as top-40 options in each of the last six games, which leaves you choosing which Bucs receiver gets the nod. Surely, it’s Perriman who has the odds in his favor. But the fact that the Bucs have targeted wide receivers on 60.2 percent of passes is a high mark, which could allow for Watson to be fantasy relevant. He’s in the WR5 conversation, though far from a lock for production.

TEs
Darren Fells and Jordan Akins: It’s now been six straight games where Fells has seen four or less targets, making him practically a non-factor in fantasy leagues. He was always touchdown-dependent, but it’s to the point where even if he does score, it may not make him a top-12 play, as he’s failed to top two catches or 24 yards since back in Week 8. Meanwhile, Akins has failed to record more than four targets in five of the last six games, while finishing with 26 yards or less in seven of his last eight games. It’s frustrating as we head into Week 16 because the Bucs have been a matchup to attack with tight ends, as we’ve seen 10-of-14 tight ends finish as top-15 options against them. It is worth noting, however, that three of those who didn’t hit that mark have come in the last three weeks, as Nick O’Leary, Jack Doyle, and Jesse James all failed to score more than 6.1 PPR points. Because of their recent surge and the inconsistency in tight end targets for the Texans tight ends, neither are recommended streamers. If forced to pick one, it’d probably be Akins due to him running more pass routes than Fells with Fuller in the lineup.

O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate: With Mike Evans out of the lineup, we saw both Howard and Brate heavily involved in the offense, as Howard netted eight targets, while Brate notched seven of them. Remove Chris Godwin, and suddenly, there’s 10-target potential for Howard. He’s seen at least five targets in each of the last three games, which is what we’re looking for with streamers. The Texans have been much more giving to the tight end position as of late than to wide receivers, which includes Jonnu Smith‘s five-catch, 60-yard performance on just five targets against them last week. The prior week, it was Noah Fant and Jeff Heuerman combining for five catches, 121 yards, and two touchdowns on just five targets. The 8.16 yards per target they’ve allowed to tight ends ranks as the seventh-highest mark in the league. Howard is squarely on the mid-to-low-end TE1 radar. Brate is someone who can be considered for those in emergency-type situations, but he’s more of the middling TE2 type who has a lot of different outcomes.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots

Total: 38.5
Line: NE by 6.5

QBs
Josh Allen: It wasn’t pretty, but Allen found a way to get to 16.3 fantasy points against the Steelers last week, which isn’t that bad, though it may not have been enough to carry your fantasy team in what was a high scoring week. We knew the Steelers were a tough matchup, right? They had allowed just 75.9 fantasy points per game to the combination of quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends. Well, the Patriots have allowed a league-low 59.8 fantasy points per game. There are 61 wide receivers who average more fantasy points per game than 9.3 points per game the Patriots are allowing to quarterbacks. Allen played them earlier in the year when he totaled just 153 yards, no touchdowns, and three interceptions through the air in what was his worst fantasy performance of the year. It was more of the same last year when the Patriots held him to 217 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. Despite having a rushing touchdown mixed in, he’s totaled just 20.4 fantasy points in two games against Belichick’s defense. Knowing his team is projected for just 16.0 points, Allen’s ceiling is extremely limited in this matchup, leaving him in middling QB2 territory, and not an appealing option in fantasy championships.

Tom Brady: Despite the great matchup with the Bengals, it was more of the same from Brady, who’s now failed to score more than 13.4 fantasy points in five of his last six games. Now heading into a divisional matchup with a Bills defense that’s been among the toughest in football? Brady played them back in Week 4 (when he was playing very well) and finished with just 150 yards on 39 pass attempts, amounting to a measly 3.8 yards per attempt. That was the fourth-lowest mark of his entire career. He also didn’t throw a single touchdown in that game. On the year, the Bills have allowed 13 passing touchdowns while intercepting 13 passes and haven’t allowed a quarterback to finish better than the QB10, including Lamar Jackson. Brady belongs on waiver wires.

RBs
Devin Singletary: Even in a game with a neutral gamescript throughout, Singletary received 21-of-31 carries, highlighting just how much of a lock he has on the starting job, though fumbling twice (losing one) won’t help him retain it. He wasn’t available the first time these two teams played each other, though Frank Gore was able to post 109 yards on 17 carries. There’s now been four different running backs who’ve been able to tally 100-plus yards on the ground against the Patriots, including Joe Mixon‘s 136-yard performance last week. It does require some efficiency, as teams have averaged just 59.1 plays per game against the Patriots, leading to just 23.9 running back touches per game. The 123.2 total yards per game they allow isn’t horrendous, though the fact that they’ve allowed just three running back touchdowns (1 rushing, 2 receiving) all year caps upside. Not that Singletary relies on goal-line touches, anyway. The Bills have run the ball 42 times inside the 10-yard-line. How many of those carries has Singletary received? Three. That’s just two more than T.J. Yeldon, who hasn’t played since Week 5. With the touch-volume Singletary is receiving, it’s tough to say he’s anything less than a high-end RB3, but knowing he’s not getting touches where it matters most is worrisome.

James White and Sony Michel: If there were ever a week to trust Michel in fantasy, it would have been last week against the Bengals. He kind of left you hanging with his 103-total-yard performance, though he failed to score a touchdown for the seventh straight game. Meanwhile, we have White who’s now totaled at least 11.9 PPR points in 11-of-13 games. He’s only topped 16.4 PPR points just once, but he’s been the model of consistency. The Bills have allowed the 12th-fewest fantasy points to the running back position, though they rank 18th on a per-opportunity basis. Since Sean McDermott has become the head coach of the Bills, they’ve allowed 54 running back touchdowns in 46 games (45 rushing, 9 receiving), though they haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown over their last four games. Oddly enough, White has accounted for two of the rushing touchdowns against them but none of the receiving. Michel’s two games against them (Week 4 this year, Week 16 last year) have netted 35 carries, 179 yards, and one rushing touchdown. These divisional games seem to be the ones where Michel does most of his damage, as five of his six touchdowns this year have come against AFC East opponents. Knowing Michel has topped 11.3 PPR points since Week 7 doesn’t allow you to play him with any sort of confidence, leaving him on the low-end RB3 radar as someone who’s extremely touchdown-dependent. There have been five running backs who’ve totaled 44-plus yards through the air against the Bills, which obviously highlights White’s game, though the Bills were ready for it the first time these teams played, as he totaled just 57 yards on 10 targets. That’s still worth plenty in PPR formats, and knowing how consistent White has been, he deserves mid-to-high-end RB3 consideration.

WRs
John Brown: It was good to see Brown get back above the 50-yard mark last week, as it was something he’d done in each of the first 10 games but failed in Weeks 12-14. He also topped 1,000 yards for the second time in his career. Unfortunately, he is heading into another brutal matchup with Stephon Gilmore this week. Brown saw a solid 11 targets in their first meeting that netted five catches for 69 yards, and that’s one of the bigger games Gilmore has allowed all season. The biggest game the Patriots have allowed to a non-slot receiver was Tyreek Hill‘s six catches for 62 yards. There has been just one receiver who’s finished better than WR20 against them, no matter where they play on the field, highlighting just how much they’ve limited the position’s upside. The 1.13 PPR points per target they’ve allowed is head and shoulders above everyone else in the league, as the closest one is the Bills who’ve allowed 1.34 points per target. Knowing there’s no way around Brown seeing Gilmore in coverage, he’s just a low-end WR3 in this game with a low ceiling. If you’re starting him, you hope that he and Allen can connect on one big play, which is possible.

Cole Beasley: It was a bad time for Beasley to have just his third game with less than 9.0 PPR points, as his 1.6-point performance against the Steelers will all but cross him off potential streamers in Week 16 matchups. The Patriots aren’t the team you should be attacking anyway, though they have been a bit more giving to his role this year, as the top five wide receiver performances they’ve allowed have all been slot-heavy guys. Outside of Golden Tate‘s WR8 finish where he scored a long touchdown, Beasley has the next-best finish against the Patriots this year, as his 7/75/0 performance in Week 4 netted him the WR20 finish on the week. Beasley’s top three finishes this year did come in Weeks 12, 13, and 14, but the horrible performance in Week 15 was alarming. The Patriots primary slot cornerback Jonathan Jones has allowed touchdowns in three of the last four games and is responsible for five of the nine passing touchdowns the Patriots have allowed, so there’s some things working in Beasley’s favor (Jones has since been ruled out for this game). Still, knowing the Bills are projected for just 16.0 points in this game, you have to worry about upside. Because of that, Beasley belongs in the low-ceiling low-end WR4 range, though he probably brings a floor higher than most in his range.

Julian Edelman: He was listed on the injury report with multiple ailments last week, and it’s clear he was affected by them, as he saw just five targets. It was the first time he’d seen less than 10 targets since way back in Week 5, highlighting just how much of an outlier it was. The measly nine yards he finished with in Week 15 was a season-low, while the 30 yards he finished with against the Bills in Week 4 was his second lowest total of the year. The Bills haven’t been a team you want to throw against very much, as the 6.10 yards per attempt would suggest. They’ve allowed just five touchdowns to receivers all season, and the 1.34 PPR points per target is second in the NFL, behind only the Patriots themselves. Taron Johnson is the slot cornerback for the Bills, who’s done a great job this season, allowing just 28-of-38 passing for 227 yards and one touchdown while in the slot. There have been 10 receivers who’ve seen double-digit targets against the Bills, and each of them scored double-digit PPR points, though just three of them topped 16 PPR points. Edelman has to be in lineups due to his absurd target share but relying on him for more than middling WR2 production would probably be a mistake.

Mohamed Sanu: The good news is that he saw a team-high eight targets against the Bengals last week. The bad news is that they led to just two catches for 13 scoreless yards. He’s now finished with 14 yards or less in each of his last four games, making him completely untrustworthy in fantasy championships. The Bills secondary has allowed just five top-24 performances all season, so it’s not as if the matchup is appealing, either. Knowing he’s played in the slot just 34 percent of the time, he’s likely going to see Tre’Davious White in coverage more than anyone, the Bills shutdown cornerback who came up big in the Bills win over the Steelers last Sunday night. On the year, he’s allowed just a 54.3 percent catch-rate and no touchdowns on 81 targets in coverage. The 48.3 QB Rating in his coverage ranks third in the NFL behind only the Patriots’ J.C. Jackson and Stephon Gilmore. Sanu isn’t worth the risk.

TEs
Dawson Knox: It’s now been five straight weeks where Knox has totaled less than five targets and 40 yards, making him an afterthought in fantasy leagues. When you add in the fact that they’re playing the Patriots, a team that’s allowed just nine passing touchdowns all season, and you have a problem. The 7.32 yards per target they allow to tight ends is relatively average, so it’s not a matchup that fantasy owners must run away from, provided their tight end is seeing targets. Knox did catch all three of his targets for 58 yards against them back in Week 4, but again, what does that really do for your fantasy team? There are safer options available to stream during fantasy championships.

Matt LaCosse: It appears he’ll be the top tight end on the Patriots moving forward, though that’s not saying much. He’s failed to top four targets or 33 yards all season long. In fact, the Patriots tight ends as a whole have had just one double-digit PPR game all season. They’re now going into a matchup with the Bills, a team that’s been top-three against the position all year. Knowing there have been just two tight ends who’ve finished better than TE10 against them all year, you’re free to keep scrolling down the waiver wire.

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers

Total: 46.0
Line: SF by 6.5

QBs
Jared Goff: Garbage time saved Goff from what would have been a disastrous game against the Cowboys last week. His 51 pass attempts amounted to just 284 yards (5.6 yards per attempt), and that was against a struggling Cowboys secondary. He may be catching the 49ers at the right time, as the injuries have started to pile up. They were without defensive end Dee Ford, cornerbacks Richard Sherman and K’Waun Williams, safety Jaquiski Tartt, and defensive tackle D.J. Jones against the Falcons, allowing Matt Ryan to throw for 210 yards and two touchdowns, which is not bad when you consider how many players they were down. They were still able to generate pressure on 44.4 percent of Ryan’s dropbacks, which would be huge against Goff, as he’s really struggled under pressure. It’s no secret that Goff has done well against bad teams and played poorly against good teams. The fact that the 49ers have allowed just two quarterbacks to throw for more than 241 yards, and three quarterbacks to average more than 6.82 yards per attempt highlights just how good they are, though the injuries are important to note. The 178.4 passing yards per game they’ve allowed is easily the lowest mark in the NFL. When you know the 49ers have limited yardage all year and combine that with the fact that Goff hasn’t thrown three touchdowns all season, you have yourself a situation to avoid. While at home against the 49ers earlier this year, Goff totaled a career-low 78 passing yards and no touchdowns. Even with the injuries to the 49ers defense, Goff isn’t someone you should aim to stream in Week 16.

Jimmy Garoppolo: We talked about the potential fantasy floor for Garoppolo last week and our worst fears were realized, as he threw for just 200 yards and one touchdown. It was the eighth time this season he finished with 13 or less fantasy points. One of those games was against the Rams back in Week 6 when he threw for 243 yards, no touchdowns, and one interception. While he didn’t have Emmanuel Sanders at that time, the Rams didn’t have Jalen Ramsey, either. The Rams have allowed just four quarterbacks to throw for more than one touchdown against them this year, and all of them had mobility to lean on (Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston, and Dak Prescott). Outside of Jackson, Wilson, and Winston, they haven’t allowed a quarterback to finish better than QB12 and have held eight quarterbacks outside of the top-18. In order for Garoppolo to rack up some attempts, we’d need the Rams to put points on the board, something that seems a bit difficult at this point in time. It’s the second time these two teams have met, and it should be a closely fought battle, though it doesn’t appear to be one of the high-scoring variety. Garoppolo should be considered a mediocre QB2 this week.

RBs
Todd Gurley: He continued in his workhorse role against the Cowboys, though the game went south really quick, forcing the Rams to drop back and pass 51 times. Gurley still scored twice, and it could have been more had Goff not completely underthrown him wide open for what looked like it could be a 36-yard touchdown reception. If there’s been any semblance of a weakness on the 49ers defense, it’s been against the run. They’ve allowed a respectable 4.28 yards per carry to opponents, but the lack of plays has limited them to just 19.4 carries per game. Once it gets down to the nitty-gritty, they’ve shut-down run-games when it matters most, though, as the four rushing touchdowns they’ve allowed ranks as the second-lowest mark in the league. They’re one of just two teams in the league who’ve still yet to allow a receiving touchdown, which has led to them allowing a league-low 1.19 PPR points per target to running backs. Gurley wasn’t on the field when these two teams played back in Week 6, where Malcom Brown filled in and rushed for just 40 yards on 11 carries. The injuries to their defense have started to pile up though, as defensive tackle D.J. Jones was placed on injured reserve last week(joining inside linebacker Kwon Alexander), while defensive tackle Julian Taylor and edge rusher Dee Ford were out as well. They were able to keep Devonta Freeman in check last week with all those missing pieces, but you have to give Gurley a slight bump if they’re out again. The only running back who totaled 18 touches against the 49ers and didn’t finish as the RB17 or better was Adrian Peterson, who tallied 81 yards on 20 carries. Consider him a high-end RB2 for this matchup as he’s one of the running backs you can lock in for 18-plus touches.

Raheem Mostert, Matt Breida, and Tevin Coleman: Of the 27 opportunities available to the 49ers running backs last week, Mostert tallied 16 of them, giving him the clear-cut lead job while Breida finished with six, and Coleman five. You still need them to rack-up the touches in order for Mostert to be guaranteed 14-plus touches, and that’s a number you really need him to hit this week against the Rams. There hasn’t been a running back who’s finished better than RB40 without seeing at least 14 touches against them. Granted, there have been 17 running backs to hit that mark, but for the 49ers backfield, nothing should be a given. Back in the Week 6 matchup with these two teams, the 49ers running backs racked up 35 carries and six receptions. They weren’t particularly efficient with them (137 total yards, one touchdown), but with that type of volume, you feel pretty comfortable. The Rams opponents have averaged 67.1 plays per game (3rd-highest) which has led to a rock-solid 29.1 touches per game for running backs. They’ve allowed the 10th-fewest points per opportunity, so it’s not like it’s a smash spot that you can’t miss, though the Cowboys stuck it to them last week while racking up over 300 total yards and three touchdowns last week. Prior to that game, the Rams had allowed the fifth-fewest points per opportunity. We have to consider it just a bad showing for them given the much larger sample size of dominating performances they’ve had, and knowing their playoff hopes are on the line, expect them to show up for this game. Mostert should be in lineups as a low-end RB2 this week and is the only 49ers running back who belongs near a fantasy lineup. After Breida fumbled twice (lost one), it’s likely that he’s fallen out of his 10-12 touch role, while Coleman’s inefficiency landed him behind Mostert.

WRs
Robert Woods: The good news is that his high target share continued in Week 15, as he’s now seen 56 targets over his last five games, volume that cannot be benched. The bad news is that he came up short against the Cowboys, hauling in 4-of-9 targets for just 17 yards. It was a tough matchup, so expectations weren’t too high, but this week’s matchup isn’t much better. The 49ers were forced to start Emmanuel Moseley, Ahkello Witherspoon, and D.J. Reed at cornerback last week, as both Richard Sherman and K’Waun Williams were out. Sherman’s injury is the one to monitor here, as he’s the cornerback Woods would see the most. Knowing this game is a day earlier (on Saturday) and that Sherman was considered likely to miss multiple weeks, his absence would be huge for Woods. Moseley would step into that spot, as he did last week when he allowed 5-of-8 passing for 47 yards and a touchdown. This is not a great matchup, but Woods has to be played while seeing nine-plus targets in each of the last five games. If Sherman plays, Woods comes in as a mid-to-high-end WR3. If Sherman sits again, Woods should be treated as a solid WR2. *Update* Sherman practiced in full all week and is likely going to play in this game.

Cooper Kupp: After the week he was played just 19-of-68 snaps, Kupp was back out there in his regular role against the Cowboys where he played 68-of-74 snaps. He caught a touchdown for the third straight game, though he’s failed to finish with more than 65 yards in each of the last six games and has seen six or less targets in five of those games. You must wonder why the targets have stopped coming to Kupp, as he’s now caught each of the last 14 passes thrown his way. Goff’s QB Rating when targeting Kupp is 112.6, while it’s 81.3 to Cooks, 77.8 to Josh Reynolds, and 76.5 to Woods. The matchup with the 49ers is a tough one for Kupp, as evidenced by his four-catch, 17-yard performance he had back in Week 6 when he was playing at a high level. They were without starting nickel cornerback K’Waun Williams last week, who suffered a concussion in their Week 14 game. If he were to be held out again, Kupp’s matchup would be upgraded, as Williams has been among the best slot cornerbacks in the league this year. Of the 63 cornerbacks/safeties who play 25-plus percent of snaps in the slot, his 61.6 QB Rating in slot coverage ranks sixth. Meanwhile, his replacement D.J. Reed is just a fifth-round pick from last year who’s had very limited playing time. When he has played, he’s allowed three touchdowns on 28 targets in coverage. If Williams sits again, Kupp should be considered a high-end WR2. If Williams plays, Kupp is more of a low-end WR2/high-end WR3 for this game. *Update* Williams has cleared the concussion protocol and is expected to play. 

Brandin Cooks: He saw more than four targets for the first time since way back in Week 7 last week, though his four-catch, 46-yard performance isn’t quite enough to play him with much confidence, especially knowing how Sean McVay has changed things up as of late. The matchup with the 49ers isn’t one that you should be searching for a reason to play receivers, either, as they’ve allowed just 6.48 yards per target, which ranks as the second-lowest mark in the league. They’ve also allowed a league-low 27 pass plays that have gone for 20-plus yards, something Cooks has relied on throughout his time with the Rams. You can’t play him as anything more than a low-end WR4/high-end WR5 right now.

Emmanuel Sanders: So, maybe his fantasy woes weren’t related to his rib injury, and they were just part of being attached to the 49ers offense? He’s now totaled 41 yards or less in five of his last six games and has seen more than six targets just twice since joining the 49ers back in Week 8. That’s a problem when you’re looking at the fantasy championship week. Another issue is the matchup with the Rams, who’ve not been kind to opposing wide receivers since acquiring Jalen Ramsey. Over the eight games with him on the roster, they’ve allowed just two wide receivers to top 15.7 PPR points against them, though there have been 11 wide receivers who’ve totaled at least 54 yards in those contests. So, essentially, there’s been a floor to be had, but not much of a ceiling. With his target share so volatile, it’s tough to say Sanders is anything more than a low-end WR3 for this matchup. There’s an outcome where he finishes as a top-24 receiver, but we’re playing odds here, and the odds aren’t great.

Deebo Samuel: Just when we started to come around to trusting Samuel, he has his worst game since back in Week 8. He only saw three targets against the Falcons, catching one for 29 yards while dropping another one. As mentioned in the Sanders notes, the Rams have been pretty tough on opposing receivers since Jalen Ramsey arrived. Outside of the Ravens game they failed to show up in, they’ve allowed just one wide receiver touchdown in the other seven games. To be fair, they have allowed 10 wide receivers to hit 54-plus yards in those other seven games, so it’s not as if they’re complete shutdown where you can’t consider a receiver. Samuel would likely see a lot of Troy Hill in coverage, the cornerback who plays opposite Jalen Ramsey. He was forced to leave last week’s game with a thumb injury after playing just 8 snaps, so it’s something we need to monitor, as he’s been solid in coverage, allowing just a 45.1 percent catch-rate and 5.96 yards per target this year. If he were forced to miss this game, we’d see former undrafted free agent Darious Williams take his place, a second-year cornerback who has allowed 8-of-9 passing for 127 yards and a touchdown in his coverage over the last two years. Samuel should remain on the high-end WR4 radar this week, but he’d get a nice bump if Hill’s forced to sit this one out.

TEs
Gerald Everett and Tyler Higbee: Even if we get word that Everett might return this week, you’re not going to trust him coming off a multi-week injury. You’re rooting for Higbee to remain the starter here, as he’s now totaled 39 targets over the last four weeks. Not just the targets, either, as he’s put together three straight games with 100-plus yards. There have been just four other players who’ve done that this season, and none of them were tight ends (Michael Thomas, Cooper Kupp, Stefon Diggs, and Chris Godwin). You’re playing him with that type of production, though if Everett returned, it would cloud his path to elite targets. The 49ers have been the best team in the league against tight ends. They actually rank third in terms of fantasy points allowed, but when you break down the things that matter, they’ve allowed the just 5.29 yards per target which is nearly a full yard less than any other team in the league. The six touchdowns they’ve allowed have clouded the overall numbers, but you need to know they’ve allowed just 29.9 yards per game to the position. They’ve yet to allow a tight end more than 64 yards against them this year, though we have seen both Jared Cook and Jacob Hollister finish as top-three options over the last month and a half, which could be a sign of the injuries taking their toll, though Austin Hooper was held to just 3/20/0 on six targets last week. Still, targets are what matter most to us, which is why Higbee remains on the TE1 radar in a brutal matchup. *Update* Everett returned to a full practice on Wednesday and Thursday, and is expected to return to the lineup. Neither of them should be considered anything more than high-end TE2s, though it does help that the 49ers will be without safety Jaquiski Tartt. 

George Kittle: What a monster performance out of Kittle as he racked up 17 targets en route to a 13-catch, 134-yard performance against the Falcons last week. He’s now totaled at least 18.7 PPR points in three of the four games since returning from his ankle injury. Now he gets to go against a Rams defense that continually has problems stopping him. He’s played against them three times since the start of last year and has totaled 8/103/0, 9/149/1, and 5/98/1 in those games. Keep in mind that all those games took place before the 49ers acquired Emmanuel Sanders and had Deebo Samuel playing at a high level. He was one of six tight ends who’ve finished as the TE9 or better against the Rams this year, so it wasn’t really a fluke, either. You’re playing him as an elite TE1 and the history against them only encourages you to contemplate paying up for him in DFS, too.

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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.