2019 Fantasy Baseball Draft Recap: Fourth Round
We’re going to keep the motor running here as we look at the fourth round of 2019 drafts. We featured our first, second, and third parts of a five-part series reviewing the 2019 draft round by round. Here are the breakdowns of Round 1, Round 2, and Round 3.
We’ll keep the ledes short going forward, and we’ll hop right into the round reviews.
In the fourth part of a five-part series, we’re going to review the fourth round of 2019 drafts and how those players performed for 2019 and where they are currently going in 2020 drafts.
We’ll be using FantasyPros 2019 ADP, and NFBC 2020 ADP (as of 1/14/2020)
- 2019 ADP: 37.8, 2020 ADP: 32.83
- 2019 stats: .295/.342/.503, 23 home runs, 97 runs, 82 RBIs, 25 steals
Are we just at a point now where Marte is one of the more underrated assets to roster each year? He’ll consistently live in third- to fourth-round territory because of his all-around game. While he saw a decrease in steals last year from 33 to 25, he saw gains in power, runs, RBIs, and his triple-slash line, while decreasing his strikeout percentage to a career-low 16 percent.
- 2019 ADP: 40.2, 2020 ADP: 116.03
- 2019 stats: .226/.364/.454, 29 home runs, 86 runs, 85 RBIs, two steals
We’re still holding out hope for that true, superstar breakout year from Hoskins, but last year was bad for so many reasons. His average dipped from .246 to .226, despite his BABIP remaining pretty similar. He’ll carry more value in OBP leagues with his high walk-rate, but he was nearly droppable last year in standard 5×5 leagues. His ADP has nearly tripled from a year ago, so I’m actually buying him at his current price if it holds, but one more disappointing year where he puts up replaceable numbers, and he may graduate to “just a guy” territory. His statline last year was essentially Kole Calhoun’s numbers. You aren’t paying up for those, sorry.
- 2019 ADP: 40.4, 2020 ADP: 5.4
- 2019 stats: .305/.406/.629, 47 home runs, 121 runs, 115 RBIs, 15 steals
Bellinger was the perfect player to try to acquire last offseason after he had a sophomore slump. I don’t think anyone predicted he’d post the numbers that he posted a year ago, but there was clear room for growth. The biggest changes for Bellinger were his increased walk rate (10.9 to 14.4), decreased strikeout rate (23.9 to 16.4) and improved batting average (.260 to .305).
Are we more likely to get the 2019 version of Bellinger or the 2018 version? If we get the player who splits the difference, you’re still looking at a .285 hitter with 40 home runs, 14 steals and a respectable 12 percent walk rate and 19 percent strikeout rate. Give me that in the first round.
- 2019 ADP: 40.6, 2020 ADP: 16.3
- 2019 stats: 14 wins, 3.26 ERA, 3.01 FIP, 1.04 WHIP, 29.2 K%, 5 BB%
It sounds hard to believe, given his current ADP and value, but there was actually a tiny window to buy Buehler last year after his first three starts. He gave up five earned runs in his first start against Arizona, one at Colorado (lol), and five at St. Louis. Tried as I might, the managers who had Buehler were reluctant to move him, and good on them. Buehler is going to be one of those pitchers who will flirt with 200 innings, which are becoming more and more rare. He deserves to be a top five pitcher off the board with his pedigree and performance.
- 2019 ADP: 41, 2020 ADP: 20.63
- 2019 stats: .319/.412/.598, 34 home runs, 117 runs, 126 RBIs, five steals
Rendon was a guy that I enjoyed drafting each year because he was so damn underrated. Well, that was a fun run. Coming off a huge year and a fresh new contract, the market on Rendon has shifted, making him a hot commodity in drafts.
While joining Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani has its perks, I’m expecting some slight regression for Rendon, but I still think that he’ll return on his 20th overall ADP. Third base is so insanely deep, though, that I’m probably looking elsewhere with my second-round pick.
- 2019 ADP: 41.6, 2020 ADP: 177.63
- 2019 stats: .220/.293/.387, 23 home runs, 61 runs, 73 RBIs, zero steals
I think it’s really sad that we didn’t have a moment of silence for Davis’ four-year streak of hitting .247 coming to an end last year. Let’s take that moment now.
OK, back to it. Not only was his average down, but his homers, in a year where everyone was hitting bombs, decreased by 25, too. I don’t know about you, but I’d rather trust a four-year sample than a one-year sample, so Davis falling to 177 is almost laughable. I’ll take that value all day in hopes of a rebound season.
- 2019 ADP: 44.4, 2020 ADP: 42.25
- 2019 stats: .263/.291/.424, nine home runs, 58 runs, 62 RBIs, 43 steals
I was all in on Mondesi being a bust last year, and honestly, I’m kind of glad I was. I just don’t like paying up for steals guys who don’t offer much else.
He had five fewer homers in 27 more games last year, and also saw his average adrop, while his strikeout rate got higher. Contact ability at the plate is becoming less important, and steals are becoming more scarce, so I get wanting to invest in Mondesi and Jonathan Villar. I’m out, though, and would rather invest in the Starling Marte-types who offer across-the-board production.
- 2019 ADP: 44.6, 2020 ADP: 91.2
- 2019 stats: .279/.358/.568, 21 home runs, 42 runs, 59 RBIs, one steal
Correa is 25. He played just 75 games last year due to a back injury. A back injury. At 25 years of age.
He still has that MVP upside, but the injury history really scares me with him. The projection models love him, and his ADP has doubled from last season, so there is room to buy. Like Rendon, though, shortstop is so loaded that you can wait if you choose.
- 2019 ADP: 44.6, 2020 ADP: 37.4
- 2019 stats: .309/.384/.555, 33 home runs, 110 runs, 117 RBIs, four steals
Every season heading in 2019, I could typically find an excuse for why Bogaerts overperformed. Last year, it looks like he finally broke out in a big way with no real glaring reasoning. His 2018 and 2019 numbers are pretty similar when you look at his peripherals, and the only part I might question if I’m reaching is how sustainable his .338 BABIP is, but he’s a guy who has had a full season with a .335 and .372 (!) BABIP in the past. I’m buying.
- 2019 ADP: 45, 2020 ADP: 54.18
- 2019 stats: .275/.328/.493, 25 home runs, 92 runs, 83 RBIs, nine steals
The change in venue really helped Realmuto last year when you look at his home/road splits — especially with his power and triple-slash line. It makes sense, though, right? You’re going from Miami to Philadelphia, which is an environment that is much more hitter-friendly.
What is ironic, though, is that all nine of Realmuto’s steals came in away games. He’s the clear No. 1 or No. 2 option at the position again if you’re counting on the steals.
- 2019 ADP 45.6, 2020 ADP: 45.8
- 2019 stats: 14 wins, 3.25 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 1.18 WHIP, 28.5 K%, 8.4 BB%
Corbin made that look silly last year, didn’t he? He’s maintained his same ADP from a season ago, which is kind of wild since pitchers have been getting pushed up so much in early drafts. He’s a guy I’m comfortable taking as my SP2, but I also worry about taking pitchers off a deep playoff run — especially when they were utilized the way the Nationals utilized them with the way their bullpen performed in the playoffs.
- 2019 ADP: 48.8, 2020 ADP: 42.45
- 2019 stats: .292/.383/.591, 39 home runs, 96 runs, 96 RBIs, six steals
Springer was that guy I wasn’t excited to draft, but was fine ending up with him. He exploded last year for a 17-homer increase, and he increased his hard-hit rate (using FanGraphs) by nearly 12 percent.
It’s only fair to expect regression for him this year, and if you want to argue all Astros hitters should expect some regression, fine. Springer is, shockingly, 30 already, so we may see natural decline over the next few years anyway. He’s fine at his current ADP.