DraftKings NFL Cash Lineup Advice: Divisonal Round
Man, I love the NFL playoff two-day DFS slates! Last weekend had a fun set of games with some unexpected outcomes and this weekend’s Divisional Round figures to be entertaining and have its own drama. Make sure on these two-day slates that you are reviewing your lineups between games and days to make adjustments if needed to get away from the chalk if one of your lineups is drawing dead. There are some sizeable home favorites this weekend, which is what most of my DraftKings cash game lineup will focus on.
Russell Wilson (SEA): $6,600 @ GB
I had Patrick Mahomes penciled into the quarterback slot for most of the week, but as of this writing, I am pivoting down to Russell Wilson to save some salary. With the lack of a consistently reliable running game for Seattle right now and the prospects of playing on the road in a game they could be trailing, Wilson should have the ball in his hands to make a play quite often on Sunday. Wilson’s efficiency and ability to pick up yardage on the ground help to give him a solid floor with potential upside if the Seahawks trail or fall into a shootout against Aaron Rodgers.
Aaron Jones (GB): $7,400 vs. SEA
Jones and the Packers are at home in the cold weather as a small favorite, which should push them to focus on the ground game against a vulnerable Seahawks run defense. The Seahawks ranked 26th in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) according to Football Outsiders this season and have allowed 4.68 YPC (24th) and 1.8 rushing touchdowns (30th) per game to running backs over the last five weeks of the regular season. Jones has produced at least 17 DraftKings points in each of his last four games while topping 100 rushing yards in three of those outings. He can also get some work in the passing game against a Seattle defense that allowed 5.6 receptions (20th) for 69 yards (31st) per game over the last five weeks of the regular season.
Damien Williams (KC): $6,000 vs. HOU
Williams was the Chiefs’ primary back during the last two weeks of the season after returning from injury. In those games, he saw an average of 14 carries and five targets per game. Look for similar involvement on Sunday when the Chiefs host the Texans as a near double-digit favorite. The Texans allowed 4.61 YPC (26th) to running backs this season and ranked 22nd in DVOA against the run. Williams is also often used as a receiver out of the backfield near the goal line and the Texans allowed four receiving scores to backs over the last five weeks of the season.
- Derrick Henry (TEN): $8,200 @ BAL
- Raheem Mostert (SF): $5,800 vs. MIN
- Gus Edwards (BAL): $4,900 vs. TEN (only if Mark Ingram is ruled out)
Tyreek Hill (KC): $7,600 vs. HOU
I have decided to favor wide receivers capable of big, explosive plays on less target volume over higher volume options who don’t offer as much big-play potential. If we are fitting that mold, then Tyreek Hill needs to be at the top of the list. With my pivot to Wilson over Mahomes at quarterback, this gives the lineup another player from the Chiefs, the team with the highest implied Vegas total on the slate. He will face a Texans defense that has given up plenty of big plays to wide receivers this year, including allowing up 14.6 yards per reception (28th) to wideouts over the last five weeks of the regular season. If you prefer volume over long scores, then consider pivoting this spot to either Davante Adams or DeAndre Hopkins.
Marquise Brown (BAL): $4,400 vs. TEN
Last week, Adam Thielen was my “leap of faith” recommendation, which panned out quite well. This week, the player I’m asking you to take a leap of faith with is Marquise Brown. Brown has only been getting about two-to-four targets per game down the stretch, which is scary to consider in a cash game lineup, but with his low salary, it will only take one big play to pay off. I’m expecting that big play (or two) to be available this week when he faces a relatively slow Titans secondary. Remember how Brown started the season against the Dolphins? I wouldn’t be shocked by a similar performance to start the playoffs.
- Davante Adams (GB): $7,800 vs. SEA
- DeAndre Hopkins (HOU): $7,400 @ KC
- Tyler Lockett (SEA): $6,600 @ GB
- Deebo Samuel (SF): $5,200 vs. MIN
- Allen Lazard (GB): $4,500 vs. SEA
Jacob Hollister (SEA): $4,000 @ GB
There is a strong group of tight ends to consider this weekend. Sure, I’d like to pay up for someone like Travis Kelce or even Mark Andrews, but with the priority needed at running back and without any really strong, dirt cheap wide receivers to roster, I find my lineup pushed to use a cheaper option. Hollister has become a reliable option for Wilson over the second half of the season and the Packers have been vulnerable when facing good tight ends. I’ll qualify Hollister as a good tight end, so look for a solid line with about four or five receptions for 50 yards and a 50/50 chance for a score.
- Travis Kelce (KC): $6,400 vs. HOU
- Mark Andrews (BAL): $5,600 vs. TEN
- Kyle Rudolph (MIN): $3,400 @ SF
49ers (SF): $3,000 vs. MIN
The 49ers’ defense is coming off a bye week and is starting to get healthy for the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Vikings are coming off an overtime game and playing on a short week while flying to the West Coast. The 49ers’ defense will look to regain the early-season form that propelled them to average three sacks and force 1.7 turnovers per game on the year. I’m very comfortable with any of the three D/STs listed here depending on your preference and roster construction needs.
- Chiefs (KC): $3,200 vs. HOU
- Packers (GB): $2,800 vs. SEA