FanDuel NFL Cash Game Lineup Advice: Super Bowl LIV (2020)
After 20 weeks of meaningful football, and one week of glorified flag football at the Pro Bowl, we have finally reached the final two teams standing. Super Bowl LIV is here and all the media hype is finally almost past us. The time for the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers to play is finally upon us.
With that, we have a single game slate available on Fanduel and if you’re not familiar with the format, you choose an “MVP” that has his score multiplied by one and a half. Unlike Draftkings, Fanduel does not offer team defenses in these contests, much to my chagrin as I feel the 49ers defense is actually in a decent spot to surprise a lot of people. After that four additional flex spots are available, including kickers.
If you’re one of the millions putting your hard-earned cash on the line in some capacity for the Super Bowl, why not add a few more greenbacks to the pile?
Here are the players I’m considering for my cash game lineup for the Super Bowl contests:
MVP (1.5x Points)
In the 8 games, including 2 playoff wins, that OTs Joe Staley and Mike McGlinchey played together, the 49ers averaged 5.2 YPC. In the 10 in which one or both were out: 4.3. Both will be playing Sunday v. a Chiefs defense that finished 28th in opponent rush average (4.9).
— Paul Domowitch (@pdomo) January 29, 2020
Patrick Mahomes (KC): $16,000 vs. San Francisco 49ers
In a single game format, you want points and a lot of them. Thus far in the playoffs, Mahomes has put up 38.14 and 35.06 points, respectively. While his cost is the highest on the slate, it’s certainly justified. Furthermore, it’s not very difficult to jam in several good skill players above the $8,000 mark with Mahomes as your MVP. In cash games, there’s not a lot of reasons to fade Mahomes entirely, unless you’re truly of the belief that the 49ers defense can stifle the Chiefs offense.
The 49ers defense plays a majority of its snaps in Cover 3 zone coverage.
As it turns out, Patrick Mahomes is one of the better quarterbacks when facing Cover 3.
All stats courtesy of the DataHub Pro. pic.twitter.com/7zIINgSEHk
— Sports Info Solutions (@SportsInfo_SIS) January 29, 2020
Travis Kelce (KC): $12,500 vs. San Francisco 49ers
Kelce is probably one of my favorite skill position players in this game outside of the two running backs. The last time these two teams met a year ago Kelce went for eight catches and 110 yards. The 49ers ranked first in yards per target allowed to tight ends (5.5) this season.
As a whole, the 49ers allowed the fewest yards per completion (9.7) and limited big plays. The 49ers only allowed five passing plays of 40 or more yards this season (tied for second in NFL) and just 34 passing plays of 20 or more yards (tied for first in NFL). This makes me hesitant for someone like Tyreek Hill, of similar cost. Of course, in a single game setting, flags must be planted on certain guys. In this case, I’m leaning for Kelce over Hill.
Kendrick Bourne (SF): $7,000 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The 49ers slot receiver had an impactful game against the Minnesota Vikings in the Divisional Round but was relatively quiet against the Packers. Of course, in the NFC Championship Bourne only saw 14 offensive snaps (third-most at WR for the 49ers). In the regular season, Bourne was fourth in red-zone targets for the 49ers. This week he gets Tyrann Mathieu in the slot and I’m expecting his involvement to mirror the Divisional Round.
— Jeff Deeney (@PFF_Jeff) January 25, 2020
On the season, Garoppolo led the NFL in converting 50% of his third-down passes for first downs. This is definitely a boom-or-bust play that might be more relegated for GPP’s, but if you’re locking in Mahomes as your MVP, savings anywhere can be a good thing, especially if you’re stacking the Chiefs receiving options. Again, it’s not necessary to go this far down the player pool in this game, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility that the 49ers are forced to throw the ball in this game.
Robbie Gould (SF): $9,000 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Both defenses have been fairly stout, but as of late the Chiefs defense has actually turned it up a notch (outside of their disastrous starts in the playoffs). Since the defenses aren’t available and it’s a one-game event, we get kickers in the player pool this time!
Defense since Week 11
37% drive score pct
20.9 1st downs per game
80% red zone TD pct
28% drive score pct
20.0 1st downs per game
42% red zone TD pct
Better by every measure.
— Paul Hembekides (@PaulHembo) January 22, 2020
The number I’m paying close attention to is the red zone touchdown percentage. Both teams have the ability to move the ball between the 20s. Can they punch it through and score seven instead of three though? If the Chiefs defense can continue its recent trend, it might be able to force Gould into field goal attempts rather than extra points. I think both kickers are in play in this one, but I’d stray away from rostering both in my lineup. With the extra $500 in savings pivoting to Gould, I’m leaning towards the 49ers kicker in this one.