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NFL Wild Card Picks: Against the Spread & Over/Under (2020 Playoffs)

Jan 3, 2020

Will Russell Wilson lead Seattle to cover the spread on the road?

Football is winding down, sadly. We only have 11 more games to watch until the offseason arrives. Fortunately, the greatest part of the season, the NFL Playoffs, is officially upon us. With player props, over/unders, spreads, and moneyline bets, there are still plenty of opportunities for you to benefit from over the next month. Between our BettingPros site and this insightful article, we’ve got all the angles covered for you heading into Wild Card Weekend.

To start the playoffs on the right foot, we’ve asked the most accurate sports betting experts to give us more clarity on these games and provide us with their favorite picks this week. Read on to see which over/under and against-the-spread picks the best experts have the most confidence in.

View picks from the entire consensus for each Wild Card playoff game:
BUF @ HOU (-2.5) | TEN @ NE (-5) | MIN @ NO (-7.5) | SEA @ PHI (+1.5)

Q1. Which team are you most confident in against the spread and why?

“I liked the line more when it was at 8-8.5, but I’d still take the Vikings (+7.5) as long as it’s more than a touchdown. This season, the Saints played eight games against teams with above-average passing offenses in terms of DVOA — they were outscored by nine in those eight contests. New Orleans is just 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games where they’ve been favored by a touchdown or more. Meanwhile, the Vikings are 14-4-1 ATS in their last 19 matchups where they’ve been 3.5-8.5-point dogs. Minnesota has also covered in five of their last six in the Superdome. I like New Orleans to win, but I’m taking the points.”
– Elisha Twerski (FantasyPros)

“I am most confident in backing the Patriots (-5) this weekend. New England comes into this game severely undervalued after their loss to the Dolphins. The Patriots are 11-0 under Bill Belichick against quarterbacks making their playoff debut. The Titans’ offense was certainly more explosive under Ryan Tannehill, but they are not ready to win a game of this magnitude in Foxborough.”
– Mike Spector (BettingPros)

“The Buffalo Bills (+2.5) are the team I am most confident in. I know, it sounds strange, but hear me out. The Bills have a top-five defense and the Texans have a bottom-five defense. When was the last time that you felt great about a team in the playoffs with a bottom-five defense? I understand the Texans are at home, but how much has that mattered in the past? I understand that they have the best player in this game in Deshaun Watson, but to me, I am very confident that the Bills are the superior team. Not only do I like the Bills against the spread, but I like them to win this game outright.”
– Matt MacCoy (The Next Big Thing)

“I’m convinced that the Eagles (+1.5) win outright, so I like them quite a bit with the extra 1.5 points. Their defense has been playing much better lately, especially as their secondary continues to get healthier. They’ll also dominate both sides of the lines in this game, plus Carson Wentz has been outplaying Russell Wilson over the last two months. Sure, Philly is missing some key players, but let’s not overlook the fact that Seattle is as well. Much like their last meeting, this is likely to be a low-scoring contest and I’m expecting the home team to win it in the end.”
– Bobby Sylvester (FantasyPros)

“My favorite line this week is Seattle at -1.5. There’s still a lot of uncertainty surrounding the Eagles’ skill position players and this line feels like it’s assuming they’re all 100%. We know Alshon Jeffery is done for the season, but DeSean Jackson, Zach Ertz, and Miles Sanders are all tentatively expected to play. If any of them end up missing the game, then I’d expect this line to move further in favor of Seattle. I mean, after all, this is playoff Russell Wilson, and even though Pete Carroll loves to underutilize him, he might be forced to feature him given the current state of their backfield.”
– Nick Zylak (Fantasy Football Advice)

“The team that is most likely to win against the spread is the Seattle Seahawks (-1.5). This is not your father’s Seahawks. They have become road warriors. The Eagles, on the other hand, have been decimated with injuries. Russell Wilson finds a way to win, so the 1.5 points should not matter.”
– Doug Roth (FantasyPros)

View more picks against the spread from 100+ experts >>

Q2. Which matchup are you most confident in picking the over/under and why?

TEN at NE: 44.5 – Over
“If you stopped watching the NFL after the first half of the season, you’d probably go all-in on picking the under in the New England-Tennessee matchup. The Patriots were teeing off against bottom-of-the-litter opponents, which had their defense looking better than the ’85 Bears. Meanwhile, the Titans were averaging under 17 points a game with Marcus Mariota at quarterback. However, in their 10 contests with Tannehill at the helm, the Titans went over nine times and averaged 30.4 points per game, while the Patriots allowed an average of 29.3 points per game in three of their only four contests against top-tier offenses. It’s not a coincidence that the total started at 43 and has inched up to 44.5 since. I love the over on 43 if you can still find it, but I’d also bet it on 44.5.”
– Elisha Twerski (FantasyPros)

“This is probably going to surprise people, but I feel really good about the Titans at Patriots game going over the current 44.5 point total. The Patriots have an elite defense and they’ve struggled at times on offense, but their defense has shown signs of weakness recently and the Titans rank first in red zone touchdown percentage. On the flip side, the Titans have allowed the second-highest red zone touchdown percentage and the Patriots have historically played much better at home. Betting the over means you’re betting that teams will convert in the red zone…and I have a feeling we’ll see a few touchdowns on Saturday.”
– Nick Zylak (Fantasy Football Advice)

SEA at PHI: 45 – Under
“As I mentioned above, the other Seahawks at Philly game from this season was an offensive disaster. Russell Wilson completed just 13 passes, and although Carson Wentz threw 45 passes, his Eagles only got in the endzone once. Even though the Seahawks’ defensive inefficiencies have been covered up by their easy schedule, they should still be able to slow down an Eagles offense that’s without most of its key weapons. Likewise, the Seahawks’ offense has stalled as of late while Philly’s defense may have jumped into the top five in football since their bye in Week 10. With cold weather and some wet field conditions, the under is my favorite play of the week.”
– Bobby Sylvester (FantasyPros)

“Give me the under 45 in the Seahawks-Eagles matchup. These two teams combined for 26 points in an earlier matchup this season and I do not see much changing. The Eagles have relied more on their defense lately given all the injuries to their skill position players. Seattle should also be able to get after an Eagles offensive line that is down two starters.”
– Mike Spector (BettingPros)

BUF at HOU: 44 – Over 
“I will actually stick and stay with the Bills/Texans game. The over/under opened at 41.5, which is simply way too low. I think the Bills with Josh Allen, John Brown, and Devin Singletary move the ball consistently all afternoon on the Texans. I believe Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins will be chasing points for the vast majority of the afternoon. This is a recipe for the over and I feel QUITE confident in that prediction.”
– Matt MacCoy (The Next Big Thing)

TEN at NE: 44.5 – Under
“Betting the under (which is currently 44.5) seems to be the best of the four-game slate. The Patriots’ defense is very good and their offense will be forced to depend on the run. The Titans have just one receiving option that the Patriots will look to shut down. Derrick Henry will have a ton of carries and both teams will run the clock out before the over can come in.”
– Doug Roth (FantasyPros)

View full set of consensus Over/Under game picks here >>

Thank you to the experts for taking the time to provide their picks and analysis. Please give them a follow on Twitter for more advice throughout the playoffs.

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