Skip to main content

Thrive Fantasy Super Bowl LIV Contest Best Bets

by Raju Byfield | @FantasyContext | Featured Writer
Jan 30, 2020

Thrive Fantasy is one of the most exciting names in the DFS arena. Instead of the traditional salary cap based offerings, they offer a variety of exciting prop based contests. They have two exciting two main DFS offerings to choose from, the Props Lobby and the Contest Lobby.

Their Props Lobby allows DFS players to make an over/under prediction on two to four props to win cash. Two props pays a 3.6x time multiplier, three correct predictions pays a 6.2x multiplier, and four correct predictions pays a 11 times multiplier. In these contests you are competing against yourself, and if all of your predictions hit, you win the corresponding amount.

Use promo code PROS for an instant match up to $25 on the users first deposit! >>

The Contest Lobby is where things really get intriguing. The prop contests for NFL involve making predictions on 10 out of the 20 listed props. You will be required to make two additional picks to ensure fairness just in case one of your players fails to play. These are called ice picks. 

With the big game just days away, we will take a look at their exciting Super Bowl LIV contests. There are a number of entry points from $5.00 all the way up to $5,000. There are larger tournaments where you face off against a larger pool of opponents, and there are also smaller cash games like Heads Up, 50/50, 3 Man, and 5 Man. 

We will take a look at some of the key stats necessary to consider when making your prediction for the 12 props listed below (10 predictions, plus two ice picks for a total of 12). For our predictions we are focusing on having the highest amount of correct predictions possible as opposed to trying to target the props with the highest point returns. Since it’s the Super Bowl we have provided all 12 of our selections in no particular order. Let’s dig in. 

Jimmy Garoppolo o/u 245.5 passing yards (95 o/105 u)
Key stats

  • 104 passing yards per game in the playoffs
  • 248.6 passing yards per game on the season
  • 246.5 passing yards per game on the road
  • 271.5 passing yards per game in the second half of the season
  • 258.5 passing yards per game in wins
  • 261.1 passing yards per game in close contests
  • Over 245.5 passing yards in nine of 16 contests
  • Over 245.5 in four of five contests against playoff teams
  • Chiefs allow 246.83 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks
  • Chiefs 252.37 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks on playoff teams

While the San Francisco 49ers defense is indeed one of the best in the league, this contest is expected to turn into a shootout based on Vegas’ over/under total. It opened at 53 points, and currently sits at 54.5 points. The over/under could very well continue to rise for this contest suggesting that the gamescript will call for Jimmy G to air it out in order for the 49ers to keep pace with the high powered Chiefs offense. The key stats overwhelmingly support an over play.
Pick: Over

Jimmy Garoppolo o/u 20.5 completions (110 o/90 u)
Key stats

  • 8.5 completions per game in the playoffs
  • Over 20.5 completions in seven of 16 contests
  • 21.5 completions per game in close contests
  • 20.61 completions per game in wins
  • 21.125 completions per game in second half of the season
  • 19.75 completions per game on the road
  • 20.56 completions per game on the season
  • Under 20.5 completions in three of five contests against playoff teams
  • Chiefs allow 22.39 completions per game
  • Chiefs have allowed 26 completions per game in the playoffs
  • Chiefs have allowed 25.42 completions per game to playoff teams

Much like with the passing yards prop for Jimmy G, the completions prop also suggests over as the initial lean. Garoppolo has not been needed thus far in the playoffs as the 49ers have cake walked past the Green Bay Packers and the Minnesota Vikings. While the 49ers will likely lean on the run, they will need to be able to stop the Chiefs offense to keep with their ground and pound strategy. The key stats here suggest the over may indeed be the play, and when we take projected gamescript into account, it becomes the definitive lean. There is an element of risk here as pass attempts to not necessarily equal completions, but in a contest where the 49ers are underdogs in one of the highest over/under total contests of the year, the over is the safer play.
Pick: Over

Raheem Mostert o/u 75.5 rushing yards (100 o/100 u)
Key stats

  • Under 75.5 rushing yards in 15 of 18 contests this season
  • Over 75.5 rushing yards in one of two playoff contests
  • 48.3 rushing yards per game on the season
  • 50.8 rushing yards per game on the road this season
  • Under in five of seven contests against playoff teams 
  • 75.8 rushing yards per game in five December contests
  • 139 rushing yards per game in two January contests
  • 76 rushing yards per game in losses
  • 41.8 rushing yards per game in wins
  • 89 rushing yards per game against playoff teams
  • Chiefs have allowed 103.3 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs
  • Chiefs have allowed 4.77 yards per carry to opposing running backs

Mostert key stats do not provide a definitive lean. 75.5 rushing yards against a Chiefs defense allowing 103.3 rushing yards per game at 4.77 yards per carry should be an easy cover, but Mostert is going to need to be afforded the requisite number of carries to reach that total. The Chiefs are a bottom five defense in terms of yards per carry against, and unlike the Titans who constantly tried to run past Chris Jones, the 49ers offense is creative and intelligent enough to focus on running between or outside the tackles. Kyle Juszyck, the best lead blocker in the league also makes it much more likely Mostert hits this total. Finally, Tevin Coleman is injured and recovering from a separated shoulder which will limit his touches, and possibly keep him out of the game altogether.
Pick: Over

Raheem Mostert o/u 0.5 touchdowns (115 o/85 u)
Key stats

  • Over in one of two playoff contests
  • Over in nine of 18 contests this season
  • Over in seven of last eight contests
  • Over in four of six contests against playoff teams
  • Averaged two touchdowns per game in the playoffs
  • Averaged 0.75 touchdowns per game average on the road
  • Averaged 1.4 touchdowns per game in five December contests
  • Averaged two touchdowns per game in two January contests
  • Chiefs have allowed a rushing touchdown in five of their seven contests against playoff teams
  • Chiefs have allowed 1.285 rushing touchdowns to playoff teams

Mostert has been on a roll in the touchdown department since becoming the 49ers lead back. He has scored a touchdown in seven of his last eight contests, and exploded for four scores versus the Green Bay Packers in the Divisional Round. All of the key trends suggest the over, and while there is still an element of risk here as touchdowns are not sticky and are always hard to count on, Mostert has a higher probability than any player on either team to find the end zone in the Super Bowl. With the over still being worth 115 points, this is a prop we need to include to bring our potential final points up.
Pick: Over

Tevin Coleman o/u 55.5 yards from scrimmage (105 o/95 u)
Key stats

  • Averaged 51.8 yards from scrimmage per game
  • Averaged 31.6 yards from scrimmage per game on the road 
  • Averaged 22.4 yards from scrimmage per game in five December contests
  • Averaged 39.6 yards from scrimmage per game in the second half of the season
  • Averaged 31.4 yards from scrimmage in close contests
  • Averaged 54.2 yards from scrimmage per game in wins
  • Over in eight of 16 contests
  • Over in one of two playoff contests
  • Under in five of six contests against playoff teams

Tevin Coleman is coming off separated shoulder, and even if he does suit up in the Super Bowl, he will very likely take a clear backseat to Raheem Mostert. The key stats here all suggest the under as the play, and with the injury to his right shoulder being taken into account, the play here is obvious.
Pick: Under

George Kittle o/u 67.5 receiving yards (100 o/100 u)
Key stats

  • Averaged 75.2 receiving yards per game on the season
  • Averaged 17.5 receiving yards per game in the playoffs
  • Averaged 55.6 receiving yards per game against playoff teams
  • Averaged 62.6 receiving yards per game on the road this season
  • Under in four of six contests against playoff teams
  • Under in eight of 16 contests on the year 
  • Under in both playoff contests
  • Averaged 85.3 receiving yards per game in the second half of the regular season
  • Averaged 74.1 yards per game in close contests
  • Averaged 75.2 in wins
  • Averaged 75.5 in losses
  • Chiefs have allowed 5.94 receptions per game to tight ends

This is the prop I have the hardest time with. On one hand, it always feels foolish to bet on Kittle under no matter what the number is, as he can explode at the drop of a hat. However, the Chiefs should be treating Kittle as the number one receiver,  throwing double teams at him on every snap. He has fallen under the number in four of his six contests against playoff teams, and has done the same in both playoff contests. With that being said, the 49ers may be forced to air it out if Vegas’ projected gamescript holds true, which could in turn lead to an over. The under is the apparent play here based on the key stats, but gameflow, and our leans on the Jimmy Garoppolo props make the over the play.
Pick: Over

George Kittle o/u 5.5 receptions (85 o/115 u)
Key stats

  • Over in 10 of 16 contests on the year
  • Under in both playoff contests
  • Over in three of six contests against playoff teams
  • Averaged two receptions per game in the playoffs
  • Averaged 6.07 receptions per game during regular season
  • Averaged 4.16 receptions per game against playoff teams
  • Averaged 5.375 receptions per game on the road
  • Averaged 6.5 receptions per game over the second half of the season
  • Averaged 7.5 receptions per game in losses 
  • Averaged 5.83 receptions per game in wins

Kittle has been as quiet as a mouse in the playoffs, averaging just two receptions per game. Of course, game flow meant the 49ers barely had to throw the ball in the playoffs. Every other key average suggests that the over is the play. Kittle is going to need to be heavily involved for the 49ers to have a chance at winning this contest. The juice/points awarded on the over should tell us all we need to know about which way Thrive Fantasy sees this prop going. Punch this one in for what should be an easy 85 points.
Pick: Over

Emmanuel Sanders o/u 40.5 receiving yards (100 o/100 u)
Key stats

  • Under in four of last five contests
  • Under in four of six contests against playoff teams
  • Under in 40.5 receiving yards in seven of 12 contests as a 49er
  • Under 40.5 receiving yards in both playoff contests
  • Averaged 50.2 receiving yards per game as a 49er
  • Averaged 49.5 receiving yards against playoff teams
  • Averaged 62.9 receiving yards on the road this season
  • Averaged 45.6 receiving yards in the second half of the regular season
  • Recorded 60 receiving yards against the Chiefs when still with the Broncos

Based on the key stats, the under appears to be the smart play. Only gameflow could cause Sanders to hit the over, as a run heavy gameplan will limit his targets, and thus his opportunities for production. While the key stats scream under, one cannot help but think gamescript is going to necessitate Sanders’ involvement. Kendrick Bourne and Deebo Samuel may end with the more impactful stat lines (touchdown for Bourne and yards for Sameul) but Sanders is likely going to need to get his touches in order for the 49ers to have a chance to defeat the Chiefs. Sanders recorded 60 receiving yards against the Chiefs earlier this season, and should be familiar enough with them to find himself with more separation than usual. It is best to go with your gut on this one, so we will be punching in the over.
Pick: Over

Deebo Samuel o/u 50.5 receiving yards (90 o/110 u)
Key stats

  • Averaged 53.5 receiving yards per game on the season
  • Averaged 62.5 receiving yards as a starter during the regular season
  • Averaged 54.5 receiving yards on the road this season
  • Averaged 59.5 receiving yards against playoff teams
  • Averaged 44 receiving yards per game in the playoffs
  • Averaged 60.7 receiving yards per game in losses
  • Averaged 59.4 receiving yards per game in close contests.
  • Under 50.5 receiving yards in four of last five contests
  • Under in 12 of 17 contests this season
  • Under in both playoff contests
  • Under in four of six contests against playoff teams

The key stats here are in disagreement. The averages all suggest an easy over play, the trends all suggest the under. Samuel will undoubtedly have over 51 yards from scrimmage, but the question is whether or not he will have 51 receiving yards. It is hard to truly judge here as the 49ers are regularly able to abandon the pass when they find themselves with comfortable leads. With the 49ers currently +1.5 point underdogs, the over seems to be the more prudent play. Roll with the averages and the ‘juice’ and take the over.
Pick: Over

Patrick Mahomes over 299.5 passing yards (95 o/105 u)
Key stats

  • Averaged 287.9 passing yards per game on the season
  • Averaged 296.8 passing yards per game on the road this season
  • Averaged 314.4 passing yards per game in Sunday games
  • Averaged 244.6 passing yards per game in five December contests
  • Averaged 264.4 passing yards per game in the second half of the season
  • Averaged 313.4 passing yards per game in close contests
  • Averaged 271.9 passing yards per game in wins
  • Averaged 346.7 passing yards per game in losses
  • Averaged 331.1 passing yards against playoff teams
  • Averaged 307.5 passing yards in the playoffs
  • Over 299.5 passing yards in one of two playoff contests
  • Over 299.5 passing yards in eight of 16 contests including the playoffs
  • Under in six of last eight contests 
  • Over in three of six contests against playoff teams 
  • 49ers have allowed 219.42 passing yards per game to playoff teams

This is one of the tougher props to gauge. On one hand, the Chiefs are likely going to need to air it out in order to defeat a strong San Francisco 49ers team. The averages support the over, especially when we drill down to Mahomes performances versus playoff teams. The trends are much less convincing, but the projected gamescript provided by Vegas’ odds suggest that he should go well over 300 passing yards if the Chiefs are to win this contest as currently projected. The ‘juice’ on this prop also suggests that the over has been the more popular play. Roll with your gut, but our play is the over.
Pick: Over

Patrick Mahomes over 2.5 passing touchdowns plus interceptions (105 o/95 u)
Key stats

  • Averaged four touchdowns per game in playoffs
  • Over in eight of 16 contests including the playoffs
  • Over in five of six contests against playoff teams
  • Under in six of last eight contests overall
  • Averaged 2.125 passing touchdowns plus interceptions per game on the road during regular season
  • Averaged 2.21 passing touchdowns plus interceptions per game on the season
  • Averaged three passing touchdowns per game against playoff teams this season
  • Averaged 2.33 passing touchdowns plus interceptions per game in Sunday contests
  • Averaged 2.66 passing touchdowns plus interceptions in losses 
  • Averaged 2.27 passing touchdowns plus interceptions in wins
  • 49ers have allowed 2.42 touchdowns plus interceptions to playoff teams 

Unless Damien Williams goes nuts and scores four touchdowns on the ground, Mahomes should easily eclipse three touchdowns plus interceptions. While we would not bet on him throwing a pick, he is a very safe bet to match his three touchdown per game average against playoff teams this season. While he has gone under the total in six of his last eight contests, he has gone over in all but one of his contests against playoff teams. Take the plus points and the over.
Pick: Over

Tyreek Hill over 3.5 receptions (75 o/125 u)
Key stats

  • Averaged 4.83 receptions per game on the season
  • Averaged four receptions per game in the playoffs
  • Averaged six receptions per game against playoff teams
  • Averaged 4.5 receptions per game on the road this season
  • Averaged 5.5 receptions per game in Sunday contests
  • Averaged five receptions per game in five December contests
  • Averaged 5.25 receptions per game in the second half of the season
  • Averaged 5.66 receptions per game in three contests against the NFC
  • Averaged 5.66 receptions per game in close contests
  • Averaged four receptions per game in wins
  • Averaged 7.33 receptions per game in losses
  • Over in six of seven contests against playoff teams
  • Over in one of two playoff contests
  • Over in six of his seven last contests
  • Over in 10 of 14 contests including the playoffs

The points given for the over should tell us all we need to know about the probability of the over hitting. Every key stat suggests that the over is the play here. Do not overthink this one, unless the 49ers struggle to move the ball all game, Tyreek is sure to be involved enough to easily hit the over.
Pick: Over

Use promo code PROS for an instant match up to $25 on the users first deposit! >>

Raju Byfield is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Raju, check out his profile and follow him @FantasyContext.

What's your take? Leave a comment

1Christian McCaffrey (CAR)RB
2Saquon Barkley (NYG)RB
3Michael Thomas (NO)WR
4Ezekiel Elliott (DAL)RB
5Dalvin Cook (MIN)RB
6Derrick Henry (TEN)RB
7Alvin Kamara (NO)RB
8Tyreek Hill (KC)WR
9Davante Adams (GB)WR
10Aaron Jones (GB)RB
 View All Rankings 
11DeAndre Hopkins (ARI)WR
12Joe Mixon (CIN)RB
13Nick Chubb (CLE)RB
14Julio Jones (ATL)WR
15Chris Godwin (TB)WR
16Travis Kelce (KC)TE
17George Kittle (SF)TE
18Mike Evans (TB)WR
19Josh Jacobs (LV)RB
20Leonard Fournette (JAC)RB
21Lamar Jackson (BAL)QB
22Kenny Golladay (DET)WR
23Amari Cooper (DAL)WR
24Odell Beckham Jr. (CLE)WR
25Austin Ekeler (LAC)RB
26D.J. Moore (CAR)WR
27Mark Andrews (BAL)TE
28Todd Gurley (ATL)RB
29Allen Robinson (CHI)WR
30Miles Sanders (PHI)RB
1Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL)LF,CF
2Mike Trout (LAA)CF
3Christian Yelich (MIL)LF,RF
4Cody Bellinger (LAD)1B,CF
5Mookie Betts (LAD)CF,RF
6Trevor Story (COL)SS
7Francisco Lindor (CLE)SS
8Gerrit Cole (NYY)SP
9Trea Turner (WSH)SS
10Jacob deGrom (NYM)SP
 View All Rankings 
11Nolan Arenado (COL)3B
12Juan Soto (WSH)LF
13Max Scherzer (WSH)SP
14Freddie Freeman (ATL)1B
15Jose Ramirez (CLE)3B
16Alex Bregman (HOU)3B,SS
17J.D. Martinez (BOS)LF,RF
18Walker Buehler (LAD)SP
19Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD)SS
20Anthony Rendon (LAA)3B
21Rafael Devers (BOS)3B
22Bryce Harper (PHI)RF
23Justin Verlander (HOU)SP
24Starling Marte (ARI)CF
25Jack Flaherty (STL)SP
26Javier Baez (CHC)SS
27Stephen Strasburg (WSH)SP
28Xander Bogaerts (BOS)SS
29Shane Bieber (CLE)SP
30Yordan Alvarez (HOU)LF,DH
1Anthony Davis (LAL)PF,C
2James Harden (HOU)PG,SG
3Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL)SF,PF
4Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN)C
5Kevin Durant (BKN)SF,PF
6LeBron James (LAL)SF,PF
7Stephen Curry (GSW)PG,SG
8Nikola Jokic (DEN)PF,C
9Damian Lillard (POR)PG
10Russell Westbrook (HOU)PG
 View All Rankings 
11Victor Oladipo (IND)PG,SG
12Paul George (LAC)SF,PF
13Joel Embiid (PHI)PF,C
14Kawhi Leonard (LAC)SG,SF
15Chris Paul (OKC)PG
16Jimmy Butler (MIA)SG,SF
17Kemba Walker (BOS)PG
18Ben Simmons (PHI)PG,SF
19Kyrie Irving (BKN)PG,SG
20Jrue Holiday (NOR)PG,SG
21Rudy Gobert (UTH)C
22Andre Drummond (CLE)PF,C
23John Wall (WAS)PG
24Kyle Lowry (TOR)PG
25Donovan Mitchell (UTH)PG,SG
26Khris Middleton (MIL)SG,SF
27Bradley Beal (WAS)SG
28Kevin Love (CLE)PF,C
29Draymond Green (GSW)PF,C
30LaMarcus Aldridge (SAS)PF,C
Build winning DFS lineups

Use the FantasyPros Lineup Optimizer to build winning lineups based on expert projections.